Can the Colts lose the top pick?

Can the Colts lose the top pick in the April draft if they wind up winning a second time and tie with Minnesota, St. Louis or both for the NFL's worst record?

The draft-order tiebreaker is strength of schedule. The team that faced a weaker schedule based on the season’s results gets the higher pick.

Jason Vida of ESPN Stats and Info looked it over and gave me this:

The Colts still have the inside track based on worst strength of schedule, but it's close enough that the other two could catch them if enough of their past opponents lose and the Colts' past opponents win (especially since the Rams last two games are against 10-win teams).

So the Colts currently have one fewer win and have played the "easiest schedule."

Strength of Schedule of Games Already Played

Colts (1-13) -- .544 (106-89)

Rams (2-12) -- .564 (110-85)

Vikings (2-12) -- .587 (115-81)

But the Rams' strength of schedule is guaranteed to get harder over the last two weeks, decreasing their chances of "winning" any tiebreakers in the draft order.

Full Season Strength of Schedule

Colts (1-13) -- .538 (120-103)

Vikings (2-12) -- .567 (127-97)

Rams (2-12) -- .588 (130-91)

The easiest route to the No. 1 pick is to stay a game worse than the Vikings and Rams.

Let's say the Colts win another game, Thursday night against the Texans or Jan. 1 at Jacksonville, and the Vikings finish with two losses.

Then Indianapolis wouold "benefit" from teams the Vikings play this season winning, to make their schedule tougher, and from teams the Colts play this season losing, to make their schedule easier.

Both Indianapolis and Minnesota played the four teams of the NFC South and Kansas City, so those will cancel out.

Beyond those opponents then, here are teams Minnesota has played or will play. Wins by these teams will help the Colts in a draft-position tie-breaker:

Chicago
Detroit
Green Bay
Arizona
Washington
Denver
Oakland
San Diego


Beyond common opponents here are Indianapolis’ 2011 opponents. Losses by these teams will help the Colts in a draft-position tie-breaker:

Houston
Jacksonville
Tennessee
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
New England

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/32118/can-the-colts-lose-the-top-pick

Although I'd love to see the Colts lose that #1 pick, I don't think it will happen. I think they'll lose the remainder of their games and pick Luck in the 1st round. The Colts have alot more problems than just a succesor to Manning, they've got alot of holes to fill.

I don't think it'd effect the Colts either way because i doubt the Rams or the Vikings would go after Luck with both teams having young former 1st round quarterbacks.

Ryan said:

I don't think it'd effect the Colts either way because i doubt the Rams or the Vikings would go after Luck with both teams having young former 1st round quarterbacks.

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Well, the way the new CBA and rookie deals go... it's possible. Not to mention they could sell the 1st pick to another club.

Sure they can screw it up and miss on the first pick, but it isn't very likely.

Can they? Yes. Will they? Not likely.

Ryan said:

I don't think it'd effect the Colts either way because i doubt the Rams or the Vikings would go after Luck with both teams having young former 1st round quarterbacks.

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They may not go after Luck, but they'll be dumb if they don't trade their pick to someone that does.