Can the Colts lose the top pick?

Discussion in 'The National Football League' started by srrono, Dec 19, 2011.

  1. srrono

    srrono Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2011
    Messages:
    2,595
    Likes Received:
    176
    Can the Colts lose the top pick in the April draft if they wind up winning a second time and tie with Minnesota, St. Louis or both for the NFL's worst record?

    The draft-order tiebreaker is strength of schedule. The team that faced a weaker schedule based on the seasonÂ’s results gets the higher pick.

    Jason Vida of ESPN Stats and Info looked it over and gave me this:

    The Colts still have the inside track based on worst strength of schedule, but it's close enough that the other two could catch them if enough of their past opponents lose and the Colts' past opponents win (especially since the Rams last two games are against 10-win teams).

    So the Colts currently have one fewer win and have played the "easiest schedule."

    Strength of Schedule of Games Already Played

    Colts (1-13) -- .544 (106-89)

    Rams (2-12) -- .564 (110-85)

    Vikings (2-12) -- .587 (115-81)

    But the Rams' strength of schedule is guaranteed to get harder over the last two weeks, decreasing their chances of "winning" any tiebreakers in the draft order.

    Full Season Strength of Schedule

    Colts (1-13) -- .538 (120-103)

    Vikings (2-12) -- .567 (127-97)

    Rams (2-12) -- .588 (130-91)

    The easiest route to the No. 1 pick is to stay a game worse than the Vikings and Rams.

    Let's say the Colts win another game, Thursday night against the Texans or Jan. 1 at Jacksonville, and the Vikings finish with two losses.

    Then Indianapolis wouold "benefit" from teams the Vikings play this season winning, to make their schedule tougher, and from teams the Colts play this season losing, to make their schedule easier.

    Both Indianapolis and Minnesota played the four teams of the NFC South and Kansas City, so those will cancel out.

    Beyond those opponents then, here are teams Minnesota has played or will play. Wins by these teams will help the Colts in a draft-position tie-breaker:

    Chicago
    Detroit
    Green Bay
    Arizona
    Washington
    Denver
    Oakland
    San Diego


    Beyond common opponents here are IndianapolisÂ’ 2011 opponents. Losses by these teams will help the Colts in a draft-position tie-breaker:

    Houston
    Jacksonville
    Tennessee
    Baltimore
    Cincinnati
    Cleveland
    Pittsburgh
    New England

    http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/32118/can-the-colts-lose-the-top-pick
     
  2. Wolf6151

    Wolf6151 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2008
    Messages:
    3,614
    Likes Received:
    132
    Location:
    Pearland, Texas
    Although I'd love to see the Colts lose that #1 pick, I don't think it will happen. I think they'll lose the remainder of their games and pick Luck in the 1st round. The Colts have alot more problems than just a succesor to Manning, they've got alot of holes to fill.
     
  3. Ryan

    Ryan THIS YEAR

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2005
    Messages:
    5,345
    Likes Received:
    285
    Location:
    Beaumont,Tx
    I don't think it'd effect the Colts either way because i doubt the Rams or the Vikings would go after Luck with both teams having young former 1st round quarterbacks.
     
  4. brakos82

    brakos82 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2006
    Messages:
    19,852
    Likes Received:
    978
    Location:
    LOHAR (Land of Hipsters and Rain)
    Well, the way the new CBA and rookie deals go... it's possible. Not to mention they could sell the 1st pick to another club.
     
  5. edo783

    edo783 Site Contributor

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2004
    Messages:
    7,715
    Likes Received:
    311
    Location:
    Houston, again.
    Sure they can screw it up and miss on the first pick, but it isn't very likely.
     
  6. Dutchrudder

    Dutchrudder King of the Potato People

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2010
    Messages:
    15,099
    Likes Received:
    1,350
    Location:
    Houston
    Can they? Yes. Will they? Not likely.
     
  7. dream_team

    dream_team Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2008
    Messages:
    1,754
    Likes Received:
    107
    They may not go after Luck, but they'll be dumb if they don't trade their pick to someone that does.
     

Share This Page