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Eye of Perfect Storm Mario?

badboy

Hall of Fame
I think all eyes will be on Mario Williams this season. He has been singled out on national television and talk shows in debates on his ability to play OLB. Not only is this a "do or die" for his head coach and maybe GM but is a pendulum for Wade Phillips. Most of us die hard fans are excited about this new to Texans defensive co-ordinator. Every night when I say my "lie me down to sleeps", I pray God be especially good to Mr. Phillips and the 52.

Mario is in final year of contract but faces (if fans are lucky) a year under a new CBA that will reduce salary cap and quite possibly his ability to have one more very lucrative deal. The new defense according to facts as we know, is designed with Mario to get 30 sacks (ok, that is my dreaming) which would allow his agent to say "Pay him Ric".

This is when the storm hits. Will McNair step up as he did with Andre Johnson and Demeco Ryans (and hopefully Vontae Leach)? Or does he tell Smith to Franchise Tag him for a couple of firsts round draft picks? There would be numerous teams lining up to sign a DE/OLB with say 15 sacks this season.

Calm now in the eye of what may be a perfect storm, but the eyes of many will be on Mario Williams. If, that is we have an NFL season.
 
If and when the teams can start work outs, I'm willing to bet Mario will up for this.
 
When a CBA is finally reached, Mario will be re-signed to a long term deal. He will not see the franchise tag (if that still exists) or free agency.
 
When a CBA is finally reached, Mario will be re-signed to a long term deal. He will not see the franchise tag (if that still exists) or free agency.
You base this upon... his history, future potential, McNair wanting to keep a good thing happening like AJ, what?
 
You base this upon... his history, future potential, McNair wanting to keep a good thing happening like AJ, what?
The Texans history. Carr, AJ, DeMeco all were re-signed prior to free agency. The exceptions (Dunta and Owen Daniels) came off injury marred seasons.

Now if Mario has a serious injury (not the nagging types of injuries he's had), then maybe the Texans would tag Mario and play a wait and see approach.

Let me ask you this: On what would you base the Texans allowing Mario to reach free agency?
 
First I'd be ok with him remaining. I think there will be some major reductions in CBA to please owners & get NFL season started. Not predicting this but could see it happening: Mario has a decent year & wants to test market so he does not allow negotiation this year. Team franchises him, knowing Watt & Smith are DEs, Reed and Barwin are OLB starters and we can get another n 2012 as b/up. If I could get a high first or 1st & something else like a vet, I may have to listen.
 
Not predicting this but could see it happening: Mario has a decent year & wants to test market so he does not allow negotiation this year. Team franchises him...
OK, but if the Texans have to franchise* Mario, he'll get the exclusive franchise tag. Mario will not get to test the market. His agent knows this, and that's why the negotiation never gets that far. Mario will get the extension before the league year is over.

*All this is predicated on the existence of the franchise tag in something of its current form.
 
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Yeah, I don't understand all this talk of letting Mario walk or whatever...

I really don't see that happening.
 
OK, but if the Texans have to franchise* Mario, he'll get the exclusive franchise tag. Mario will not get to test the market. His agent knows this, and that's why the negotiation never gets that far. Mario will get the extension before the league year is over.

*All this is predicated on the existence of the franchise tag in something of its current form.

Just a hunch, but I think owners liked being able to tag two players last season and we will see that in new CBA. Here's my next question, if a team wants him, do we negotiate a trade or keep him? A lot will depend I know on how he and Reed, Watt, Barwin etc do, but it would be hard for me to turn down a couple juicy draft picks.
 
Here's my next question, if a team wants him, do we negotiate a trade or keep him?
Depends on whether the Texans are trying to win or continuing to rebuild. Come on, Bob McNair isn't going to trade the one of the top 2 assets he has.
 
I think if Mario proves himself in the new system then you have to resign him because you are in win now mode.
 
Depends on whether the Texans are trying to win or continuing to rebuild. Come on, Bob McNair isn't going to trade the one of the top 2 assets he has.
Interesting, I have Schaub, AJ and Foster rated ahead of Mario. I also can see scenario where the other OLB has more sacks than WIlliams, not dissing Williams. Thinking on it, a healthy Ryans if that is possible would probably rate over Mario imo.
 
I think if Mario proves himself in the new system then you have to resign him because you are in win now mode.
If we do't "win now" this next season, a whole bunch of folks will be gone, I can see McNair putting Mario type $ elsewhere if we have a new coach/GM.
 
Thinking on it, a healthy Ryans if that is possible would probably rate over Mario imo.
Not in the opinion of the NFL. If all Texans were free agents, Mario would get the biggest contract.

Who would be trading Mario? If the Texans win in 2011, Smithiak keeps their jobs and Mario is likely a reason why. If the Texans don't win in 2012, the Texans new organization makes the call on Mario. How likely are they to take the Texans job without Mario and rebuild? The premise of dealing Mario is nonsensical.
 
If we do't "win now" this next season, a whole bunch of folks will be gone, I can see McNair putting Mario type $ elsewhere if we have a new coach/GM.
As long as you have players like Shaub and AJ you should try to win now per say.
 
Ranking the Pass-Rushers
1. DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys
2. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers
3. Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis Colts
4. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings
5. Tamba Hali, Kansas City Chiefs
6. James Harrison, Pittsburgh Steelers
7. John Abraham, Atlanta Falcons
8. Julius Peppers, Chicago Bears
9. LaMarr Woodley, Pittsburgh Steelers
10. Cameron Wake, Miami Dolphins
Link: http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/25401/power-rankings-top-10-nfl-pass-rushers

Of course, these selections were by writers not GMs or coaches. I am NOT advocating trading Williams but it would be non-sensical to not consider it.
 
I am NOT advocating trading Williams but it would be non-sensical to not consider it.
That list is ridiculous. Aside from possibly Matthews and Ware, none of the players listed above would be more coveted than Mario. Though, they are all good players.

If you're considering trading Mario, then you're considering rebuilding. And you may as well trade AJ and Schaub, while you're at it. Because they will be past their prime by the time the next version of the Texans are ready. The last thing the Texans need is to get younger. What they need is hair on the chest of the players already on the roster.
 
I would hope that Bob has seen how hard it is to get a pass rusher based on all the attempts we've had and he would pay Mario.
 
When a CBA is finally reached, Mario will be re-signed to a long term deal. He will not see the franchise tag (if that still exists) or free agency.

Here's one scenario where that's actually unlikely to happen: if the Texans have a bad season, that means that Wade is probably the HC next year and that means we will remain a 3-4 team, and in addition, lets say that Wades Mario/OLB experiment is a failure. OK this clearly means that the only way that Mario can get back to his "natural" position as a 4-3 DE where he's an established success (remember, he flopped as a OLB and he doesn't want to play the 5-tech 3-4 DE position), is with another NFL team.
 
Here's one scenario where that's actually unlikely to happen: if the Texans have a bad season, that means that Wade is probably the HC next year...
Huh? If the Texans have a bad season with the defense playing well, that's a true sign of the Apocalypse. Wade is going to either save Smithiak's jobs, "retire", or be retained by the next head coach.
 
Huh? If the Texans have a bad season with the defense playing well, that's a true sign of the Apocalypse. Wade is going to either save Smithiak's jobs, "retire", or be retained by the next head coach.
Totally disagree - the only way Wade comes to work here is with the owners promise that he's the next HC if Kubiak is canned. You don't really think he came here with a long-term goal of remaining the Texans DC for several years do you ?
 
Huh? If the Texans have a bad season with the defense playing well, that's a true sign of the Apocalypse. Wade is going to either save Smithiak's jobs, "retire", or be retained by the next head coach.

Depends on how you define "well".

We've played games where the defense was good enough to win, but one unit or another had a complete letdown at the end or in a crucial moment.
 
whom obviously didnt consider statistical and common sense evidence. i'm not one to promote mario as a pass rusher since i don't feel that's his strength, but his results (especially despite injury) speak for themselves. first year with turf toe, later with groin and shoulder setbacks, he is still statistically in the top 5 among pass rushers since 2006 as far as i know - as a defensive end in a 43 defense without any secondary support - while playing through those injuries. oh and by the way there is no other DE i'd rather have in run support.

i'll say again (as i repeated myself in regards to babin playing with a hand on the ground - yeah, i'm claiming "i told you so" lol), mario is an ideal 3-4 defensive end in the richard seymore role and pairs to perfection with jj watt with a similar build and skillset - they just hold different finishers - mario's freak athleticism and watt's freak tenacity.

i would favor mario and watt to suh and fairley ... and we're in position to get each more 1v1 opportunities inside if we dont cater to the perception that mario needs to be a 3rd down paycheck pass rusher.

mario is easily the strongest texan (a status he politely tried to pass to okam without anyone buying it), has awesome jump and straight line attack speed, and his height is an asset to be used inside to disrupt quarterbacks. however, mario has no hips, he cant drop or persue, and he's exceptionally slow off the snap the further he gets from the ball. for his freakish nature, he is NOT athletic enough to solely play rush linebacker regardless of weight. to even suggest it is a veiled attempt at trying to keep him on the squad to avoid a situation like carolina losing peppers. obviously mario's a monster and can plow a few sacks from a standup WOLB position, but in the grand scheme i'd rather he be bruce smith than demarcus ware.

Edit: drunk scooter, no quoting.

Who in the top 10 list would you put MW ahead of?
 
Huh? If the Texans have a bad season with the defense playing well, that's a true sign of the Apocalypse. Wade is going to either save Smithiak's jobs, "retire", or be retained by the next head coach.

Do you think BoB will re-sign MW to the contract he desires if MW has 8-10 sacks and is only effective in 10-12 games do to being injured? (Playing hurt/Out because of injury)

I dont see BoB giving MW the $$$$ he wants.
 
Do you think BoB will re-sign MW to the contract he desires if MW has 8-10 sacks and is only effective in 10-12 games do to being injured? (Playing hurt/Out because of injury)

I dont see BoB giving MW the $$$$ he wants.

I do.

Bob has shown that he is willing to do things for his star players.

Cutting Carr instead of trading him, Re-working Dre's deal when he didn't have to, Going to bat on some bat **** crazy theory with Cushing...Getting OD and Demeco signed...
 
Depends on how you define "well".
20ppg allowed or less. 8 of the 10 teams that met that criteria in 2010 made the playoffs.

Totally disagree - the only way Wade comes to work here is with the owners promise that he's the next HC if Kubiak is canned.
That's absurd on its face. Phillips is a good defensive coordinator who could have landed another coordinator gig. But he's off the radar as far as head coaching jobs are concerned.

Do you think BoB will re-sign MW to the contract he desires if MW has 8-10 sacks and is only effective in 10-12 games do to being injured? (Playing hurt/Out because of injury)
See the quote below from earlier in the thread.
Now if Mario has a serious injury (not the nagging types of injuries he's had), then maybe the Texans would tag Mario and play a wait and see approach.

There's a lot of Mario hate on this board. There's a lot of hate, period. Considering the "results" this team has produced, that's understandable. But, let's try to be rational. Mario Williams is still considered to be one of the premier defensive talents in the league. He's not going to be traded for a couple of draft picks. Let's get real.
 
That list is ridiculous. Aside from possibly Matthews and Ware, none of the players listed above would be more coveted than Mario. Though, they are all good players.

If you're considering trading Mario, then you're considering rebuilding. And you may as well trade AJ and Schaub, while you're at it. Because they will be past their prime by the time the next version of the Texans are ready. The last thing the Texans need is to get younger. What they need is hair on the chest of the players already on the roster.
Totally disagree. Scenario which could happen:

Quin does well as FS. Barwin and Reed get playing time and do very well
splitting plays. 52 defense improves to top 15 and Texans go 11-5 and win first play off series but lose in next. We have signed an average FA corner and KJ looks much better with coaching and a season behind him.
Demeco has a slightly above avg season and suffers no serious injuries. Cushing has a very good year but not like rookie year. Mario gets 12+ sacks. JJ Watts looks very good. Harris nails the nickle spot.

The offense has another good year.

A team offers a first and third in 2012 and a 3rd in 2013 for Williams. Texans are definitely not in re-building mode. We can use two firsts, second and two thirds to put team in excellent spot. If Barwin and Reed and Watt do as expected, Mario can be expendable for the right deal.
 
Totally disagree. Scenario which could happen:

Quin does well as FS. Barwin and Reed get playing time and do very well
splitting plays. 52 defense improves to top 15 and Texans go 11-5 and win first play off series but lose in next. We have signed an average FA corner and KJ looks much better with coaching and a season behind him.
Demeco has a slightly above avg season and suffers no serious injuries. Cushing has a very good year but not like rookie year. Mario gets 12+ sacks. JJ Watts looks very good. Harris nails the nickle spot.

The offense has another good year.

A team offers a first and third in 2012 and a 3rd in 2013 for Williams. Texans are definitely not in re-building mode. We can use two firsts, second and two thirds to put team in excellent spot. If Barwin and Reed and Watt do as expected, Mario can be expendable for the right deal.

badboy, that's sure enough the Perfect Storm allright. I'd like to see Meco have a good year but from all I've read after what CND posted right after it happened, odds are really stacked against him. I'd really like to see Cush have another season like his rookie year and see everything else play out as well, including seeing Mario make it standing up. Guess we'll all see what happens. If anything happens at all. :mad:
 
A team offers a first and third in 2012 and a 3rd in 2013 for Williams. Texans are definitely not in re-building mode. We can use two firsts, second and two thirds to put team in excellent spot. If Barwin and Reed and Watt do as expected, Mario can be expendable for the right deal.
Where's the first round pick located at? Top 5? That's still not a sure thing. I'm sorry, but trading a guy who helps take you to your first playoff appearance in franchise history for a few picks is just flat out stupid.
 
There's a lot of Mario hate on this board. There's a lot of hate, period. Considering the "results" this team has produced, that's understandable. But, let's try to be rational. Mario Williams is still considered to be one of the premier defensive talents in the league. He's not going to be traded for a couple of draft picks. Let's get real.

Yes there is and I just don't get it. Fellow NFL players give Mario more credit than his home town fans. Ridiculous.
 
I do not understand why I am being called a Mario hater? I have said in this thread that I'd be ok with Mario remaining on team if he is productive. I like him but if the Texans could be made better with a trade and not have to be in a re-building year, I will consider that.
 
If the Texans do decided to let Mario go for 2 1st round picks, I don't see where they'll be "rebuilding" either. Especially after they just took two of the highest rated OLBers in their collective drafts in Barwin and Reed.

The Texans have put themselves in a very good position just in case they have to move on without Mario Williams and if we do have to move on without him for whatever reason (Can't sign everybody and what if Arian runs for 1,500+ yards again), they won't be "rebuilding" on defense. Just retooling with depth that they have smartly added over the last couple of drafts. It's what teams do all the time.
 
If the Texans do decided to let Mario go for 2 1st round picks, I don't see where they'll be "rebuilding" either. Especially after they just took two of the highest rated OLBers in their collective drafts in Barwin and Reed.

What team would actually give up two first round picks for Mario though? I can't think of any unless Al Davis had a hard on for him. Mario isn't worth that much.
 
What team would actually give up two first round picks for Mario though? I can't think of any unless Al Davis had a hard on for him. Mario isn't worth that much.

Who knows, but it most likely would be to a 4-3 team, because until we actually see what Mario can do in a 3-4 scheme or even as a "third DE" we don't even know what his value is in this defense. So I don't see how anyone could say losing him means we'll have to totally rebuild on defense next season. LOL, if you think about it we're ALREADY rebuilding on defense... We just brought in a new D.C., with a new scheme, and a whole new slew of defensive players.
 
I think part of building your team (particularly through the draft) is keeping those foundational pieces in place. I just can't fathom the idea of getting rid of Mario one bit. Now if the Staff thinks Mario isn't useful for the team on the roster, then by all means. I just can't see that being the case at all.

I think we have a better chance of Mario being very very good for us, than say two first round picks playing to their "potential" and being as good or better than Mario. We're getting close to having our team built... I don't want to trade important pieces of that for complete unknowns.
 
I think part of building your team (particularly through the draft) is keeping those foundational pieces in place. I just can't fathom the idea of getting rid of Mario one bit. Now if the Staff thinks Mario isn't useful for the team on the roster, then by all means. I just can't see that being the case at all.

I think we have a better chance of Mario being very very good for us, than say two first round picks playing to their "potential" and being as good or better than Mario. We're getting close to having our team built... I don't want to trade important pieces of that for complete unknowns.

So if Connor Barwin and Reed both prove to be more than capable pass rushers for us, you don't see the Texans mindset if they decide to spend money elsewhere that is extremely lacking.....and whatever high round picks they might be offered? Nobody knows what is going to happen next season, but I can see a scenario that plays out where the Texans might not retain Mario Williams (outside of a franchise tag) when he becomes a UFA.
 
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So if Connor Barwin and Reed both prove to be more than capable pass rushers for us, you don't see the Texans mind set if they decide to spend money elsewhere that is extremely lacking.....and whatever high round picks they might be offered? Nobody knows what is going to happen next season, but I can see a scenario that plays out where the Texans might not retain Mario Williams (outside of a franchise tag) when he becomes a UFA.
If Antonio Smith and JJ Watt prove to be exceptional DEs and Barwin/Reed both prove to be more than capable pass rushers, with one reaching close to Clay Matthews-type of production.... and Mario looks to be marginally better, if not worse than the others.... then yes, there might be a chance.

Good luck with that.

I just feel that Mario has been our most productive defensive player on this team since 2006. And I think he has the best chance to continue to play at a high level, if not better than he has in the past. I have bigger question marks about the other players on this team giving us the production we want and need than with Mario. That's where my feelings come from and why I think it's doubtful he doesn't stay on this team (outside of major injury or if he hates Houston and wants to play elsewhere).
 
If Antonio Smith and JJ Watt prove to be exceptional DEs and Barwin/Reed both prove to be more than capable pass rushers, with one reaching close to Clay Matthews-type of production.... and Mario looks to be marginally better, if not worse than the others.... then yes, there might be a chance.

Good luck with that.

Or they could just prove that they're more than capable at being productive at their jobs. Or Mario could prove that he's not as dominant (in this system as he was in a 4-3)

That's all it might take to convince them to spend upwards of 90+ million dollars at another position and another bleeding weakness on this team. If that is what happens, then I want them to spend that money elsewhere, because I want a solid all around team

For what it's worth I think J.J. Watt and Reed are going to be more than capable producers for this defense for the foreseeable future and last year even with all his stupid penalties, Antonio Smith was our best and most consistent DE. Mario Williams is not irreplaceable, especially when we don't even know what he is in this defense yet.
 
I don't see the Texans letting Mario go. I seriously doubt Barwin or Reed outshine him as they will be competing for the same spot and it looks as if they will be playing completely different roles than Mario.

What I am gathering is that Mario is essentially having a position created for him to best utilize his talents.

I think that it would have to be an exceptional situation for a guy who has never played 3-4 OLB full time and coming off injury, a rookie who has never played 3-4 OLB full-time, and another very promising rookie to come in and outshine Mario.

That seems like a huge reach.

I think that the factors against Moving Mario are too great...Seems more like a fairytale to me...

And even if all those guys did come in and perform at pro-bowl like levels, you're going to essentially trade a vet that has proven that he is a top tier player for guys who have had one year of success?

Not a fan.
 
The thing is there are holes to fix. How much of that is bad coaching or just lacking good players? I don't know but I have a hunch that with the same group plus a marque free agent or two then this team might be ready to make a run with a coach and a GM not named Kubiak.
 
I don't see the Texans letting Mario go. I seriously doubt Barwin or Reed outshine him as they will be competing for the same spot and it looks as if they will be playing completely different roles than Mario.

What I am gathering is that Mario is essentially having a position created for him to best utilize his talents.

I think that it would have to be an exceptional situation for a guy who has never played 3-4 OLB full time and coming off injury, a rookie who has never played 3-4 OLB full-time, and another very promising rookie to come in and outshine Mario.

That seems like a huge reach.


Who was talking about Barwin or Reed outshining Mario?


If Mario doesn't come in and become one of the best at his "new position", I doubt the Texans make him one of the highest paid players in the league, when another team would be willing to do that in a 4-3 defense. Mario has to prove himself all over again at his new position.
 
Who was talking about Barwin or Reed outshining Mario?


If Mario doesn't come in and become one of the best at his "new position", I doubt the Texans make him one of the highest paid players in the league, when another team would be willing to do that in a 4-3 defense. Mario has to prove himself all over again at his new position.

Well...

When folks start talking about Mario coming in and "not being one of the best at his new position" and Barwin, Reed and Watt playing well enough that the organization deems Mario replaceable I thinks it's only natural to think that the discussion is gearing towards Barwin/Reed/Watt outshining him.

Plus I saw it mentioned somewhere in this thread. Someone was talking about it.

And no, Mario does not have to prove himself all over again IMO. He has been one of the best 4-3 defensive ends. The Texans brain trust/Wade Phillips has decided to change his position. If anyone needs to prove themselves, it's the Texans organization.

That said, it's entirely possible that one of those guys comes in and plays at a level near or above Mario. I wouldn't say that it's likely though. All of those guys playing well enough that we decide to move him? I don't see that happening.

But back to the main topic...I seriously doubt that Mario will be moved anytime in the foreseeable future barring serious injury for many reason. The level of play of others around him is just one reason.
 
Well...

When folks start talking about Mario coming in and "not being one of the best at his new position" and Barwin, Reed and Watt playing well enough that the organization deems Mario replaceable I thinks it's only natural to think that the discussion is gearing towards Barwin/Reed/Watt outshining him.

Plus I saw it mentioned somewhere in this thread. Someone was talking about it.

And no, Mario does not have to prove himself all over again IMO. He has been one of the best 4-3 defensive ends. The Texans brain trust/Wade Phillips has decided to change his position. If anyone needs to prove themselves, it's the Texans organization.

That said, it's entirely possible that one of those guys comes in and plays at a level near or above Mario. I wouldn't say that it's likely though. All of those guys playing well enough that we decide to move him? I don't see that happening.

But back to the main topic...I seriously doubt that Mario will be moved anytime in the foreseeable future barring serious injury for many reason. The level of play of others around him is just one reason.
Right, then you are just left with a bunch of unproven DE's.
 
I don't see the Texans letting Mario go. I seriously doubt Barwin or Reed outshine him as they will be competing for the same spot and it looks as if they will be playing completely different roles than Mario.

What I am gathering is that Mario is essentially having a position created for him to best utilize his talents.

I think that it would have to be an exceptional situation for a guy who has never played 3-4 OLB full time and coming off injury, a rookie who has never played 3-4 OLB full-time, and another very promising rookie to come in and outshine Mario.

That seems like a huge reach.

I think that the factors against Moving Mario are too great...Seems more like a fairytale to me...

And even if all those guys did come in and perform at pro-bowl like levels, you're going to essentially trade a vet that has proven that he is a top tier player for guys who have had one year of success?

Not a fan.
So in 2012, there is no way you can see Barwin and Reed at the OLBs and Ryans & Cushing in the ILBs? If that's the case and Mario does not work out as OLB, who will be the right OLB? Hopefully, Wade gave that some thought.
 
Who was talking about Barwin or Reed outshining Mario?


If Mario doesn't come in and become one of the best at his "new position", I doubt the Texans make him one of the highest paid players in the league, when another team would be willing to do that in a 4-3 defense. Mario has to prove himself all over again at his new position.
Exactly!
 
Right, then you are just left with a bunch of unproven DE's.
Smith is a proven DE and I expect his productivity to go up in new system. Yes, Watt is unproven in NFL but so are the other 224 + draftees. If Mario is hugely successful as Wade hopes as an OLB, we would have the same proven DEs as if he were not on team, right?
 
So in 2012, there is no way you can see Barwin and Reed at the OLBs and Ryans & Cushing in the ILBs? If that's the case and Mario does not work out as OLB, who will be the right OLB? Hopefully, Wade gave that some thought.

Barwin and reed won't have the same role in the defense as Mario. I don't even think both will get enough snaps to prove that they are both worthy starters.

Also I think it's way more likely barwin or reed prove that they aren't all they're cut out to be vs Mario doing so.

And again, if this move doesn't work it will be a knock against wade. Mario had pretty much solidified himself as a top tier player at de in the NFL.

It'd almost be like a proven o coordinator coming in and trying to move Andre to running back.

So far with no free agency it looks like a lot of youth and inexperience will be on the field. I'm far more concerned about almost every other defensive position and not so much about marios transition to wades 52 esque defense.
 
Smith is a proven DE and I expect his productivity to go up in new system. Yes, Watt is unproven in NFL but so are the other 224 + draftees. If Mario is hugely successful as Wade hopes as an OLB, we would have the same proven DEs as if he were not on team, right?

Why do you expect smith to be successful but not Mario?
 
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