How talented are the Texans....really?

[Porky]

This was inpired by something Jerek said in the David Carr thread, and I keep seeing it frequently. That is that the Texans are bottom of the NFL barrell in terms of talent. I thought about it, and I'm not sure that label applies any more. I'm not sure we have quite made middle of the pack overall, but we are not far from that imo. I am giving each group a grade based on roughly where I think that group is in relationship to the other 31 teams. Am I crazy here? Do they all stink? Or are the Texans actually better then even I give them credit for? You decide, and let me know where I am wrong.

I'll try to be conservative in my analaysis:

QB's - Ok, so this one is hard to judge right now for obvious reasons, but let's be safe and say middle of the pack group, 16th overall.

RB's - Could be flirting with the top 10 with Green on board and Dayne backing up, but let's be safe and say 12th best group. If Green is not what I think, this could fall fairly dramatically, but I don't expect that to happen.

WR's - Any team with AJ avoids the bottom 10, but who knows from there. It's all a crapshoot after that. Let's say about 20th due strictly to AJ.

TE's - Owen Daniels was great, but the rest leave something to be desired, but they are not terrible either. Again, let me be conservative and say 20th best.

Oline - I don't think it's nearly as bad as Carr made them look, and this grade is without Spencer. OTOH, they are not great either, and still need help. 24th best.

Dline - Under achieving line, but a yr with Mario and the additon of Okoye should help. Still, I don't think they will be as good as their press clippings would indicate - 16th best

LB - Demeco in the middle really helps this grade. Not impressed on the outside, although Barber may help a little. This may be a bit low really but - 18th best

Secondary - We need help bigtime here, especially at FS. Let's be generous and give them 25th best, and that is due to Drob.

ST - Kicker and punter are subpar as a group, but our returners should really shine. Deep snapping has never been an issue - all in all - 20th best.

If you have a major beef with these rankings, let's hear it.

 

[real]

I don't know how to rank them like that, but as far as overall talent goes I'd consider us in the 20th to 25th range...

 

[Kaiser Toro]

I would say those are fair, but with potential upside when you take an all in look at the unit level.

I have been promoting a 12-4 prognostication, not because of overwhelming talent, but because I feel that locker room this year will be a fun one to be in as players are developing, more talent being acquired for competition, depth has been acquired, needs are being addressed and the feel that something special is being started.

Kubiak and Smith work well in tandem and is noticeable from the outside looking in and can only imagine how good it feels inside the locker room.

 

[hollywood_texan]

The difference between a really talented team in the NFL and a marginal team is about 1 or 2 key players.

Those 1 or 2 players bring so much to the table that they make everybody better around them.

Where would the Patriots and Colts be without Brady and Manning? Probably would struggle to get in the playoffs!

As for Carr and his comment, HE WAS THE FIRST PICK OF THE FRANCHISE!!!! He had to be the best player on the squad considering the position he played. Bottom line, he had to be able to carry the offensive side of the ball. What did this guy expect? Carr just doesn't seem that smart and his class act persona seems to be fading fast.

Having said all that, the Texans really are not that far off except for the defensive secondary. The Texans need a huge playmaker to come through, and his name is Schuab. If he comes through, we won't be having these types of discussions. The discussions will be finding that last missing piece of the puzzle, which will probably be defensive secondary help.

 

[Porky]

I would say those are fair, but with potential upside when you take an all in look at the unit level.

I have been promoting a 12-4 prognostication, not because of overwhelming talent, but because I feel that locker room this year will be a fun one to be in as players are developing, more talent being acquired for competition, depth has been acquired, needs are being addressed and the feel that something special is being started.

Kubiak and Smith work well in tandem and is noticeable from the outside looking in and can only imagine how good it feels inside the locker room.

12-4? Not unless Schaub is the next Brady/Manning and fast. And even then, that is probably a little high. I like your enthusiasm though!

 

[Lucky]

If you have a major beef with these rankings, let's hear it.

I don't know about a major beef. The RBs seem a little high. If Green has a turn-back-the-clock kind of year, they could be that good.

But, the DL has to be better than middle of the pack. I'm not saying they will be for certain, but they need to be for this team to be better than 6-10. They have to lead the way, making the LBs and secondary better units because of the disruption they cause. Williams, Weaver, Okoye, Babin, Johnson...that's where the team has spent their cap $$$. I think they have to become a top 10 unit by the end of the season, or this team will regress.

 

[swtbound07]

i don't know why, but 9-7 keeps ringing in my head. I expect growing pains from schaub. I think 2800 yards is a realistic expectation. something in the neighborhood of 15 tds 8 ints. The bottom line is we have one reciever. I expect us to be a running team. Period. Our offense is pretty much tied into the success of ahman green in a new situation. Our defense is growing...and there are parallels to a young bucs defense, especially with the addition of okoye. to spell it out

okoye compares to sapp
williams compares to simeon rice
demeco compares to derrick brooks
dunta compares to brian kelly

If we get our john lynch in the next draft we could really have something special. I think a winning season isn't totally that far out of the question

 

[DerekLee1]

This team will be right around the middle of the pack this year; slightly above the middle on defense. We could get lucky and be sniffing playoffs at 9-7, but my guess would be more like 8-8. They still need a better O-line, better complements for AJ, and secondary help. All of that can be addressed in the draft next year, which should make us a true and legitimate contender in 2008. We'll also be very, very young and it could be a mini-dynasty forming. All of this, of course, is dependent on the success of Matt Schaub. Like him or not, he's the team's hope for a savior.

 

[Porky]

I'll hitch my wagon to the last two posters. Good stuff, and I largely agree. I also expect somewhere around 8-8, or maybe 9-7 if the stars align.

I do think that Rice is a little more of a quick twitch end than Mario, who relies more on brute force and speed, but not so much quickness. In other words, Rice is a sportscar, and Mario is a train.

 

[jerek]

I'd probably agree with a lot of Porky's original post, just offhand. I would readily agree that we are not "the very worst" in terms of overall talent but I'd still place us in the bottom third. If we are talking three tiers then the Panthers grade second while we easily find ourselves in the third in terms of proven performance. But like KT mentioned, we have a lot of upside and I have some confidence in the ability of our coaches to develop and utilize it.

Speaking of talent, am I the only one who thinks the Titans took a serious step backwards this offseason?

 

[Mr. White]

Speaking of talent, am I the only one who thinks the Titans took a serious step backwards this offseason?

No, but I also thought the same thing last season. They've definitely got some problems at key positions and did little to address them in the draft.

 

[eriadoc]

Meh, I'll throw my two cents in, though this type of prognostication is worthless once the hittin' starts.

QB - Schaub is a good backup, and maybe a decent starter. Rosenfels is a decent backup, but wouldn't hold up as a starter. I'll say middle of the pack, but with Schaub unproven, it could go either way.

RB - pretty low on the totem pole, IMO. Green was good four years ago, but now, not so much. I don't think he's as good now as a young Dom Davis was (although a young Green was elite). I guess I'll give Dayne a slight edge over Jon Wells, but not by much, to be honest. Overall, I'll say that our rushing attack should be roughly equivalent to those we had when DD was going strong. We were between 12-16th in the NFL in rushing for those three years, so I'll go with the same. I hope for more, based on what should be a better line and better QB play.

WR - AJ is in the top 10 of WRs, for sure, but he doesn't catch many TDs. I don't think the WR position is going to catch a lot more TDs in Kubiak's system, but that remains to be seen. Gaffney was better than most thought when he was here, and I made more than a few posts showing that his production was very good, on a per-opportunity basis. We don't have anyone opposite AJ that has ever put up even 40 catches per season, right? Certainly, we hope the upside for Walter and Jones is high, but Show Me first. I'll say 18-20th.

TE - OD has the potential to be one of the top 10 TEs in the game, IMO. He's not there yeat, obviously, but 5 TDs as a rookie, all before DC hit his major slide, speaks to that. I'll say we're top 12 at this position though.

LT - Ephraim Salaam, Jordan Black, and whatever other has-been, also-ran, never-was LT they roll out there this year is going to be subpar. When you're reading a guy's resume and the highlight is how many starts he's had, with no mention of effectiveness, well, you should know the rest. This team probably has one of the worst 6 left tackle combos in football. Unfortunately, the trickle-down effect from this position is huge.

LG - Chester Pitts would start for most NFL teams, but I don't know that he'd be a perennial Pro Bowl guy. I'll say middle of the pack here.

C - Flanagan was a disastrous signing, and the Pack fans told us so before last season started. Hodgdon couldn't hold down the position once Flanagan went down, and McKinney didn't beat either of those guys out for a starting job until Week 15 (I think, about there anyway). We're probably in the bottom 6-8 here as well.

RG - Weary seemed to play better as the season went on, and he's a lot better than Wiegert was at that position. Nevertheless, that's like boasting you can limbo the St. Louis Arch. We're in the bottom half of the league here.

RT - Winston was a mixed bag last year. He didn't beat anyone out for a starting tackle job in TC. He really didn't even get a chance to compete against Seth Wand, who got cut. He was a rookie, though, and as the season went on, he improved. He still has a ways to go, but there's reason for optimism. Nonetheless, until he does it, the position is still a weakness. Still bottom 10-12 of the league.

I'll do the defense later. I have to run.

 

[Dallas_Texan]

I'll hitch my wagon to the last two posters. Good stuff, and I largely agree. I also expect somewhere around 8-8, or maybe 9-7 if the stars align.

I do think that Rice is a little more of a quick twitch end than Mario, who relies more on brute force and speed, but not so much quickness. In other words, Rice is a sportscar, and Mario is a train.

Sun. 9 CHIEFS - W
Sun. 16 @ Panthers - W
Sun. 23 COLTS - L
Sun. 30 @ Falcons - L
Sun. 7 DOLPHINS - W
Sun. 14 @ Jaguars - W
Sun. 21 TITANS - W
Sun. 28 @ Chargers - L
Sun. 4 @ Raiders - W
Sun. 18 SAINTS - L
Sun. 25 @ Browns - W
Sun. 2 @ Titans - W
Sun. 9 BUCCANEERS - w
Thu. 13 BRONCOS - L
Sun. 23 @ Colts - L
Sun. 30 JAGUARS - W

10-6 Season. D-Line is #9 in the NFL, O-line ranked #20, Offense is ranked #14 as a whole, Defense is ranked #18 as a whole, Special teams ranked #8. It will be a surprising year that gives instant credit to the franchise as a whole. (2, 3 game winning streaks)

 

[Porky]

Meh, I'll throw my two cents in, though this type of prognostication is worthless once the hittin' starts.

QB - Schaub is a good backup, and maybe a decent starter. Rosenfels is a decent backup, but wouldn't hold up as a starter. I'll say middle of the pack, but with Schaub unproven, it could go either way.

RB - pretty low on the totem pole, IMO. Green was good four years ago, but now, not so much. I don't think he's as good now as a young Dom Davis was (although a young Green was elite). I guess I'll give Dayne a slight edge over Jon Wells, but not by much, to be honest. Overall, I'll say that our rushing attack should be roughly equivalent to those we had when DD was going strong. We were between 12-16th in the NFL in rushing for those three years, so I'll go with the same. I hope for more, based on what should be a better line and better QB play.

WR - AJ is in the top 10 of WRs, for sure, but he doesn't catch many TDs. I don't think the WR position is going to catch a lot more TDs in Kubiak's system, but that remains to be seen. Gaffney was better than most thought when he was here, and I made more than a few posts showing that his production was very good, on a per-opportunity basis. We don't have anyone opposite AJ that has ever put up even 40 catches per season, right? Certainly, we hope the upside for Walter and Jones is high, but Show Me first. I'll say 18-20th.

TE - OD has the potential to be one of the top 10 TEs in the game, IMO. He's not there yeat, obviously, but 5 TDs as a rookie, all before DC hit his major slide, speaks to that. I'll say we're top 12 at this position though.

LT - Ephraim Salaam, Jordan Black, and whatever other has-been, also-ran, never-was LT they roll out there this year is going to be subpar. When you're reading a guy's resume and the highlight is how many starts he's had, with no mention of effectiveness, well, you should know the rest. This team probably has one of the worst 6 left tackle combos in football. Unfortunately, the trickle-down effect from this position is huge.

LG - Chester Pitts would start for most NFL teams, but I don't know that he'd be a perennial Pro Bowl guy. I'll say middle of the pack here.

C - Flanagan was a disastrous signing, and the Pack fans told us so before last season started. Hodgdon couldn't hold down the position once Flanagan went down, and McKinney didn't beat either of those guys out for a starting job until Week 15 (I think, about there anyway). We're probably in the bottom 6-8 here as well.

RG - Weary seemed to play better as the season went on, and he's a lot better than Wiegert was at that position. Nevertheless, that's like boasting you can limbo the St. Louis Arch. We're in the bottom half of the league here.

RT - Winston was a mixed bag last year. He didn't beat anyone out for a starting tackle job in TC. He really didn't even get a chance to compete against Seth Wand, who got cut. He was a rookie, though, and as the season went on, he improved. He still has a ways to go, but there's reason for optimism. Nonetheless, until he does it, the position is still a weakness. Still bottom 10-12 of the league.

I'll do the defense later. I have to run.

Thanks for the analysis. I'm slightly more optimistic than you, especially regarding Schaub. Looking forward to your thoughts on the defense.

10-6! I hope so....

 

[Blazing Arrow]

okoye compares to sapp
williams compares to simeon rice
demeco compares to derrick brooks
dunta compares to brian kelly

Optimistic

 

[rmartin65]

With the price of the DL, it better be top 5 this year. Its the 2nd most expensive I think, so top 5 should be reasonable. I dont think it will happen though.

 

[Blazing Arrow]

With the price of the DL, it better be top 5 this year. Its the 2nd most expensive I think, so top 5 should be reasonable. I dont think it will happen though.

Baltimore, NE, Chicago, Jacksonville, San Diego

I would be suprised to see a bottom 10 D ranked team move to top 5 in one season. Especially with the group mentioned above still in the league.

 

[infantrycak]

I would be suprised to see a bottom 10 D ranked team move to top 5 in one season.

Well you shouldn't be. The Texans were bottom 10 on yards last year based almost solely on the 1st 5 games. For the remainder of the season, they gave up 300.5 ypg which would have put them at #10 for the league last year.

 

[Hervoyel]

Unless an expansion team has just entered the league I do not believe in the concept of "bottom of the barrell" talent in the NFL. At least not on the scale that we saw in 2002. Many people believe that the Texans are still taking the field with that level of player but nothing could be further from the truth.

The Texans have very middle of the pack talent on both sides of the ball with the exception of a couple of standout players.

In the NFL just about any team is capable of cranking out an 8-8 season any year they play. The difference isn't so much in physical talent as it is in coaching, and heart. It's what we're asking them to do and how dedicated and driven they are to do it that makes the difference.

Texans players have all the measurables you could ask for. If nothing else the Texans brain trust has excelled at finding guys who look great in shorts and who run/bench/shuttle well. If anything they place too much emphasis on physical talent here and not enough emphasis on guys who are great football players. Not enough emphasis on guys who are driven to improve on their play.

I believe our QB's are easily middle of the pack. I have to believe that until proven otherwise. I know that Sage Rosenfels can manage a game and I believe that Schaub, following some growing pains as he settles in will keep him on the bench with relative ease.

I believe that our offensive line is much maligned due to their play in the early years of our franchise and due to our former QB's inability to adjust to the speed and intensity of the NFL game. I think we have questions but we're again in the middle of the pack. Until we actually see evidence of what I "believe" I'll conceed that we might be in the lower-middle.

I think our running backs are squarely middle of the pack. I think Ron Dayne is underestimated and that he's easily capable of posting franchise numbers in this system. I hope that Ahman Green can miracle up one of those "roll back the clock" seasons for us but I suspect that he's this years Eric Moulds type mistake. Time will tell and I hope I'm wrong. Even if I am though I'd take Dayne, Green, Lundi, and Taylor over almost half the backfields in the NFL.

I think our WR's are going to be ok. We have one serious weapon and a number of role players. We have speed guys and we have posession guys and we have a pass catching TE who's not so one dimensional that his very presence gives away the play. I think we're easily middle of the pack.

On Defense I think our DL will fall somewhere between 15th and 10th. I think we're going to see a statement type of year from those guys. There will be pressure in 2007, mark my words.

LB's are going to be solid. They were middle of the pack last year and I expect all of them to be better than they were in 2006. Second year in a system will help a great deal.

Secondary is going to look better with more pressure but it still needs some work. I don't know if I could call them bottom of the barrell but I will say that I think this is our weakest area right now.

Still, averaging it out I think we're somewhere between 20th and 10th and the optimist in me says it's closer to the top than the bottom.

 

[Honoring Earl 34]

I would say ... based on last year ... we're 20-25 . As Parcells would say you are what your record is .

We can move to 15-13 depending on how the FA's perform along with the young guys .

 

[Blazing Arrow]

Well you shouldn't be. The Texans were bottom 10 on yards last year based almost solely on the 1st 5 games. For the remainder of the season, they gave up 300.5 ypg which would have put them at #10 for the league last year.

Not sure where you got that stat from but it is not correct.

Total yards allowed: 5400
Less your first 5 games: 1783 (130 GB, 515 IND, 495 WASH, 289 Miami, 354 Dallas)

3617 Total Yards allowed in those 11 games

or 328.8 yards per game

or the 16th spot.

If you ignore those 3 playoff teams you played.

 

[Porky]

Well you shouldn't be. The Texans were bottom 10 on yards last year based almost solely on the 1st 5 games. For the remainder of the season, they gave up 300.5 ypg which would have put them at #10 for the league last year.

Nice stat! Sometimes stats can be misleading though. Could it be that teams were not afraid of the offense, and just kind of sat on the ball to run time off the clock? I don't know, not saying they aren't a top 10 D, but I want to see it happen when other teams have to keep attacking us because we have a real QB who can points on the board.

 

[Malloy]

IMO we're smack right in the middle in regards to talent. The thing that will distance us from other teams this season and beyond will be coaching and game-planning. Hopefully this will be a positive ride

 

[Lucky]

Not sure where you got that stat from but it is not correct.

Total yards allowed: 5400
Less your first 5 games: 1783 (130 GB, 515 IND, 495 WASH, 289 Miami, 354 Dallas)

Um, the Texans opened the '06 season against Philly. Not Green Bay. The Texans gave up 441 total yards against the Eagles. And infantrycak is correct in every fact he posted.

As usual.

 

[Blazing Arrow]

Um, the Texans opened the '06 season against Philly. Not Green Bay. The Texans gave up 441 total yards against the Eagles. And infantrycak is correct in every fact he posted.

As usual.

Your right! I looked up the stats by game log and for some reason game one pulled in the Carolina vs Green Bay game. Can you guess who's stats where on the game log?

I still think ignoring 3 playoffs teams and chalking it up as "we played poorly" is far fetched but at this point of the year we can all drink from the coolaid.

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

In terms of talent, the texans are a 6-10 to 8-8 football team. The issue for me is that the Texans have not established that they do anything well. Most teams have things that they don't well (see the superbowl champs at stopping the run), but do something above average. Honestly, the Texans could improve as a team a still end up with a 6-10 record. Not that my goal is for that type mediocrity, but issue one for the texans is to establish doing something..in my mind anything at an above average level.

 

[The1ApplePie]

We have a young D, with unlimited potential. Or offense is AJ, and a bunch of scrubs (Don't know about Schaub).

I'm an RB man, and I would have liked to have landed a real RB this year, but there were only 2 good ones in the draft this year. Green is washed up, and Dayne is known as one of the worst Heisman busts for a reason.

Even with losing Moulds, our Offense probably won't take a step back. If we could get a good outside LB, S, and CB next offseason, our D could be monsterous.

Mario doesn't compare to Rice. I don't mean talent wise, I mean their styles are totally different. Rice is an edge rusher, while Mario is more of a run stopper. He grades out more like Courtney Brown, which isn't bad. Brown was a beast until his knee got destroyed.

 

[Il_Bruno]

We have a young D, with unlimited potential. Or offense is AJ, and a bunch of scrubs (Don't know about Schaub).

I'm an RB man, and I would have liked to have landed a real RB this year, but there were only 2 good ones in the draft this year. Green is washed up, and Dayne is known as one of the worst Heisman busts for a reason.

Even with losing Moulds, our Offense probably won't take a step back. If we could get a good outside LB, S, and CB next offseason, our D could be monsterous.

Mario doesn't compare to Rice. I don't mean talent wise, I mean their styles are totally different. Rice is an edge rusher, while Mario is more of a run stopper. He grades out more like Courtney Brown, which isn't bad. Brown was a beast until his knee got destroyed.

I agree with you for the most part, but im sure the O will be addressed a lot more next off season so we can get your stud RB that youve wanted since forever.

while I do think Green has a little left in the tank, he's only a band aid at this point, and i doubt that his contract would deter this team from selecting a stud RB in the draft if we should be in such a position.

Mario isnt quick like Rice, but he's a lot stronger. He needs to learn some more power moves to rush the passer instead of just his bullrush, you know, add a little to the arsenal.


Good to see you round applepie, everyone from TT remembers your oh so wonderful avatar. Is there a reason ms jolie is no longer present?

 

[The1ApplePie]

I agree with you for the most part, but im sure the O will be addressed a lot more next off season so we can get your stud RB that youve wanted since forever.

while I do think Green has a little left in the tank, he's only a band aid at this point, and i doubt that his contract would deter this team from selecting a stud RB in the draft if we should be in such a position.

Mario isnt quick like Rice, but he's a lot stronger. He needs to learn some more power moves to rush the passer instead of just his bullrush, you know, add a little to the arsenal.


Good to see you round applepie, everyone from TT remembers your oh so wonderful avatar

They don't allow animated avs, so no luck with that here

 

[Il_Bruno]

thats too bad, that old one was a keeper.

 

[infantrycak]

Could it be that teams were not afraid of the offense, and just kind of sat on the ball to run time off the clock?

Could be certainly, but I see no reason why teams should have been more scared of the Texans O coming off a 2-14 season than coming off a 1-4 start--and frankly the O went downhill from that point as a passing O.

I still think ignoring 3 playoffs teams and chalking it up as "we played poorly" is far fetched but at this point of the year we can all drink from the coolaid.

If you actually watched the games last year you would have seen the obvious progress despite the injuries. Nothing koolaid about it. 515 yds to Indy in game one (where they were supposedly not trying for half the game) vs. 319 yds in game two (where they were playing for home field advantage) for instance.

Green is washed up, and Dayne is known as one of the worst Heisman busts for a reason.

John McClain had an excellent piece on RB's who have had their best seasons when they are 30 and 31. This washed up stuff is for the birds until he shows it on the field.

 

[junior]

The difference between a really talented team in the NFL and a marginal team is about 1 or 2 key players.

Those 1 or 2 players bring so much to the table that they make everybody better around them.

Where would the Patriots and Colts be without Brady and Manning? Probably would struggle to get in the playoffs!

As for Carr and his comment, HE WAS THE FIRST PICK OF THE FRANCHISE!!!! He had to be the best player on the squad considering the position he played. Bottom line, he had to be able to carry the offensive side of the ball. What did this guy expect? Carr just doesn't seem that smart and his class act persona seems to be fading fast.

Having said all that, the Texans really are not that far off except for the defensive secondary. The Texans need a huge playmaker to come through, and his name is Schuab. If he comes through, we won't be having these types of discussions. The discussions will be finding that last missing piece of the puzzle, which will probably be defensive secondary help.

saying that one last piece is saying we are a strong playoff team and ready for the jump to a great team. we are at least 4 to 5 pieces away. 2 more in the secondary, one wr, 2 Ol. and thats if our qb is as good as some think he will be. oh yeah at least 1 more lb. making the playoffs is just a little better than mediocre. 1 game over .500 can get you in some seasons. there is a big leap from that to where the colts, pats, and someone like seattle is.

you take Indy for example and every part of the team from DL, LB, CB, S, QB, WR, OL, we may have better RBs but you can see we are more than the last piece away.

also those rankings i think you are only taking into consideration our starters, where we get killed is the depth and that is as important as the starters. thats why the good teams stay with the great teams for 3, 3.5 qtrs then the great one find a way in the end a lot of times because they are fresher. you see it all the time when the defense wears out at the end of games. i know that ball control has a lot to do with it. but you take the ravens when they had no offense and the bears last year, even though they were on the field the whole game becaus eof the depth the could keep that same effectiveness late in games.

 

[Il_Bruno]

depth is very important like what junior said, which the Texans have had very little of up until this point. All these solid FA linebackers should help that out. hopefully

 

[infantrycak]

we are at least 4 to 5 pieces away. 2 more in the secondary, one wr, 2 Ol. and thats if our qb is as good as some think he will be. oh yeah at least 1 more lb.

So before the first OTA you know the new safeties, CB's, WR's will not contribute and Spencer won't be back, nor will any of the LB FA's or draftees upgrade Orr? I'll wait for training camp and pre-season and see how they actually play.

 

[Runner]

depth is very important like what junior said, which the Texans have had very little of up until this point. All these solid FA linebackers should help that out. hopefully

Heck, they've got so much depth now they are even starting some of it!

 

[thunderkyss]

I see a lot of people talking about records, 12-4, 10-6, 9-7, etc... when trying to gauge the talent level of this team. I don't think you can do it that way.

Take Jacksonville for example. They've benefitted from an easy schedule in the past, going 12-4. But if you really looked at the talent on that team, they've never been good, outside of their defensive line.

Arizona has a lot of talent, but couldn't get to .500. Denver has been avg, talent wise for most of the last decade on offense, but they usually find themselves in the play-offs, and the same goes for New England.

Coaching and scheduling probably has more to do with a teams W/L than talent, as most teams are really pretty close talent-wise.

We don't have the big stud names, with proven track records, but we are young. Capers & Fangio weren't really very good at the coaching aspect of the game, and Kubiak's first year was pretty rough. Hopefully, he is a fast learner.

Our team needs to learn how to win, then we'll see superstars, and we'll be talking about how much guys like Babin & TJ, CC Brown, and Marlon Greenwood are, when they are just as talented now, as they will be tommorrow, next season, and the season after next.

When we see guys like Demeco have a great year, we like to say, "He's our best player, he's really talented." or whatever. Then we say, "Mario underperformed." But a lot of what Demeco did, was because of guys like Mario & Babin getting doubled on the edges, and spreading the OL, or making the runner have to cut back inside, or take an extra step around.

Remember, Dunta had an exceptional rookie year, as did DDW..... David looked to be the real thing in 2002, and yada yada yada.

I don't think talent was/is the biggest reason we've yet to reach .500.... I think picking a coach with very little success & experience as the first head coach was a gamble. Then when he built his staff out of coaches who weren't actually the cream of the crop kinda slowed us down a bit as well.

But to answer the original question, I think we're as talented as the next team, player wise. I think we're above avg coach wise(now with Sherman, Bush, & Kubiak). Now, we've actually got people who can teach our young talent a thing or two about football.

 

[Da_General]

QB's - 16
RB's - 12
WR's - 20
TE's - 20
Oline - 24
Dline - 16
LB - 18
Secondary - 25
ST - 20

Follow me here, this gets a little crazy.

Just out of curiosity, I punched these numbers in the calculator and averaged them. They came out to 19th overall. This would equate to getting the 14th pick in the draft. Not too terribly off from where we were last year. Take away our changes we've made since last year, you can drop the QB rating down to account for Carr, drop the RB ranking for what we had last year, drop the Dline down as well...depending on where you stack them, I'm willing to bet you'd have us pretty close to 25th overall, which would equate to the 8th pick in the draft (our original seeding). Based on this, I'd say these guesses are fairly accurate. However, I hope we can be ranked higher in almost every category based on the TEAM concept and the increased leadership and camaraderie within the team.
My take on the upcoming team/season, for what it's worth:

QB - 10 Call me a Homer if you like, but I see big things in store for Schaub.
RB - 10 (I heard someone on 610 a few weeks before the draft point out that the injury Green had typically takes about 1.5 years to fully recover from. If that's true, and the talk of him being a workout demon are true, I expect him to be way better than anyone outside of our circle envisions.
WR - 20. I want to see something from the rest of the cast before I feel comfortable raising them. If Schaub is all he's cracked up to be, this number goes up considerably.
TE - 20. See WR comments
Oline - 15. Schaub elevates their play.
Dline - 10. Assuming they gel quickly.
LBs - 15. If DeMeco was that good as a rookie, what's he gonna do with some experience under his belt? Not to mention the fact that now he's a known commodity and will be targeted, thus freeing up the outsiders to wreak more havoc.
2ndary - 20. They are now officially the weakest link of the team, but thanks to other improvements up front, they won't get exposed nearly as often anymore.
ST - 18. I expect to see both Brown and Stanley replaced before the regular season starts.
----------------
Using my math calculations, this adds up to an overall ranking of: 15th. This equates to the 18th pick in the draft. Last year, the 18th pick belonged to Cincy, who finished 8-8 and just missed the playoffs. Better rankings at WR and TE will push us farther up, and could equate to a 9-7 record, maybe good enough to MAKE the playoffs! How's that for logicalizing us in?

 

[Texans Horror]

In some areas, the Texans have above-average talent and below-average use of the talent. In other areas, there is mediocre talent but still below-average use of it. The defensive line is probably one of the most, if not the most, talented lines in the NFL. The defensive backs are mediocre at best (good thing the Texans solidified that area!).

 

[The Pencil Neck]

Um, the Texans opened the '06 season against Philly. Not Green Bay. The Texans gave up 441 total yards against the Eagles. And infantrycak is correct in every fact he posted.

As usual.

Actually, if you just remove the first three games, our average per game drops to 303.77 and that puts us at 11th in the league.

If everyone recalls, in those first three games our defense was trying to get a pass rush with just the four down lineman and they weren't blitzing hardly at all. Everyone on the board was freaking about it. Finally, with the Dolphin game, we started blitzing and getting a little pressure on the QB. Not much, just a litte.

 

[Il_Bruno]

Actually, if you just remove the first three games, our average per game drops to 303.77 and that puts us at 11th in the league.

If everyone recalls, in those first three games our defense was trying to get a pass rush with just the four down lineman and they weren't blitzing hardly at all. Everyone on the board was freaking about it. Finally, with the Dolphin game, we started blitzing and getting a little pressure on the QB. Not much, just a litte.

we started blitzing and what happened? we won our first game. what a coincidence!

 

[eriadoc]

Regarding Schaub - I am actually pretty optimistic about him. I have long said he was the better QB of the two in ATL. However, he still hasn't proven that with any consistency, so bumping up ratings based on optimism just seems a bit premature. But then this entire exercise is premature, and all in fun anyway, so what the heck.

Tier 1 QBs, IMO (in no particular order)

Brady
Manning
Palmer
Brees
Favre (yes, still)
McNabb
Hasselbeck
Bulger

Tier 2 QBs - guys that have proven they can man the position, but don't put up stellar stats or haven't done it for very long (again, very subjective)

McNair
Green
Pennington
Roethlisberger
Rivers
Delhomme
EManning

Tier 3 QBs - up and coming guys, again in no particular order

Schaub
VY
Leinart
Cutler
A. Smith

Tier 4 QBs

Vick
Simms
Grossman
Kitna
Romo
Leftwich
Frye
Losman
Brunell

Too early to tell

Russell
T. Jackson
J. Campbell
Quinn

I'll take any of the 15 QBs in the top two tiers over Schaub, as of right now. I think Schaub has a bit more upside than a couple of them, but today, I'd take any of those 15. So at best, Schaub would rank 16th on my list.

 

[eriadoc]

Defense

DT - Travis Johnson is a bust, and we had street free agents manning the position last season. Those FA's did an acceptable job, though, and Smith and Kubiak did a fine job of identifying personnel that could help. With a coaching change, these guys could go either way. Okoye should be an upgrade to either, and they'll benefit from overall better play, I think.

DE -Weaver could have had a better year, and Mario had a bad wheel for much of the season. Still, he toughed it out, and the defense improved over the course of the season. If the team finds more ways to get Babin on the field, I think this position becomes even stronger. Babin played very little last year, but was pretty effective in that limited role. This postion should benefit from Okoye's presence as well.

DL - Top half of the league, and I'll say it will trend upward as the year progresses.

MLB - Demeco is a beast, of course. Depth is a concern, as we have quantity, but little quality at the position. Polk is listed as the backup, and Troy Evans is gone. Without injury to Ryans, I'll say top 10.

OLB - Shantee Orr, Kailee Wong, Shawn Barber, Charlie Anderson, and Danny Clark are all going to battle it out for a spot. None of those options appeal to me, personally. Again, we have quantity at LB, but little quality. Greenwood actually had a good year last year, and I expect he will again. Forget his contract for a minute, and you'd have to label hima good LB again. Overall, this is still a weakness of the team, but it's not as glaring as it used to be. I'll go with anywhere from 16-18.

CB - Robinson had an off year, but he still has the talent to be an elite CB. He still has great recovery speed, has very fluid hips, a nice backpedal, and can still hit like a Mack truck. I question his focus at times, but I think he'll play better with better play around him. On the other side, we're either relying on a rookie, or the motley collection of nickel and dime backs we've been running out there to get burned. All in all, until someone steps up, this is a huge weakness. Bottom third of the league.

S - Glenn Earl and CC Brown just don't cut it in the NFL. They might make decent backups, but they really shouldn't be starting. I think we could maybe get away with Glenn Earl starting, if we had a good S opposite him, but with two bad options, it's just all bad. Of the two, I think Earl is a more legit NFL talent. If the rookie somehow has an impact, maybe we'll see improvement. Of all our rookies, the safety is the one I am least optimistic about. Bottom 5 in the league.

K- Kris Brown is the worst kicker int he AFC over the past three years. Really, I looked it up. And it isn't even close. He has a lower make percentage than his contemporaries, unless you completely exclude anything 30 yards or longer from the criteria. We really ought to get someone, anyone to compete with him. And he doesn't even kick touchbacks. I'll say bottom two, only because I didn't scour the NFC for worst kickers, so I'll allow for the possibility.

P - Stanley is good at directional punting, and gets good hang time on his punts. Furthermore, he has a pretty good return against average. That said, he had a rough year last year, mostly because he would shank in clutch situations. The punt distance argument has been overstated quite a bit, but his distance isn't stellar. McBriar had a better net average, but he outkicked his coverage a fair bit, for instance. Stanley can be good, and two years ago, he was. If he gets back to 2004 and 2005 form, when he punted way too much, we'll be OK, not great. Unless that happens, I'm saying bottom half.

KR/PR - Mathis has been a nightmare off the field, and it would appear that he's landed on the wrong side of Kubiak. Nonetheless, when he is on the field, he is the most electric player out there. He only had one kick return last year, and even that one was really good. Punt return has been a nightmare for a while, though. We have no one to man the spot, and this year's duty looks to fall to a rookie, potentially. If Mathis works out the whole cranial/rectal issue, we're top 3 in KR and bottom 6 in PR. Otherwise, we're at the bottom in both categories.

All in all, we are still sorely lacking in three secondary spots, as well as one linebacker spot. And that's not considering quality depth. The annually competitive teams have better backups than we have starters, in many positions.

 

[Specnatz]

Tier 1 QBs, IMO (in no particular order)

Brady
Manning
Palmer
Brees
Favre (yes, still)
McNabb
Hasselbeck
Bulger

Tier 2 QBs - guys that have proven they can man the position, but don't put up stellar stats or haven't done it for very long (again, very subjective)

McNair
Green
Pennington
Roethlisberger
Rivers
Delhomme
EManning

I'll take any of the 15 QBs in the top two tiers over Schaub, as of right now. I think Schaub has a bit more upside than a couple of them, but today, I'd take any of those 15. So at best, Schaub would rank 16th on my list.

I would disagree with this in regards to a couple guys.

Farve - (whom I love watching) He is aging and has maybe two years left in him. He has been through a lot in his career.

McNair - He is aging as well and his play last year was not what it used to be.

McNabb - He has been injured so much the last few years I would stay away from him. do you think the Eagles drafted a QB in the second round because they have this supreme confidence in him?

Green - Is on the downside of his career as well and the Chiefs are looking to replace him.

E Manning - What hashe shown in his first few years? Nothing you put him here because of name only (IMO).

I know Schaub has yet to prove what he can do over the course of a season but wanting ageing, injury prone, or guys with just the name plate is not what I am looking for.

Looking at a lot of the assesment of the team from most here I guess I am more optimistic than most. In certain areas. Although I wanted to draft Levi brown, because of the not knowing of Spencer, the offensive line improved over the course of the season. was that based on the better run production, better blocking by the fullback, or coaching? That I do not know but I do think the running game will be there this upcoming season and that should increase the wins by two and then I gave Schaub 1 win just because of the change in the team at his position. sometimes, right or wrong, a change just helps.

Rushing D:
2005 we ranked dead last 143.9 per game.
2006 we ranked to 20 w/ 122.3 game.

Passing D:
2006 ranked 24 w/ 220.1
2006 ranked 22 w/ 215.3
Marginal improvement on the pass D but still an improvement. If the D line improves like it should this should improve as well.

Offense Passing:
2005 ranked 30 w/ 139.8
2006 ranked 27 w/ 173.6
There is no way it should be worse than in 2005 amd should be improved over 2006. One game of 32 and one of 86 yardspassing? No way that happens again, not realistic.

Offense Rushing:
2005 Ranked 15 w/ 113.5
2006 Ranked 21 w/ 105.3 Yes the team did not improve here but the line was riddled with injuries and two rookies started a few games and the O-Line was riddled with injuries. Once Leach came into play the running game took off and it increased the second half of the season.

The one area I have more of a question than most is special teams. We do not have a set return man and we all know what Brown and Stanley can or I should say can't do. I look for steady improvement, as we did last year and in most areas from the previous year. I am not saying we should be looking at what NO did last year but a 9 - 7 record is not that far out of reach of an improvement. Especially since tenn vy, indy colts and jacksonville jags, did not really improve there team.

Buffalo is a complete mystery to me on hom much they improved with the loss of clements and nothing gained, yeah they replaced there rb but what else did they do?

The Texans are in a very weak conferance, despite having the face the Colts twice.

 

[TK_Gamer]

I think the Texans are what you might call an enigma in the NFL talent wise, they tend to do good to great when they can all work together with no one element taking all the strain. when they have a break down in one area they tend to get exponentially worse. if the front 4 is ineffective the whole defense plays mediocre to bad regardless of personnel on the field, but if if every segment avoids bad mistakes, the the whole becomes way better than the some of it's parts, thus the enigma. our defense showed that at the end of the year last year, seriously outperforming its expected skill level. the offense did the same at times, especially the running game. my only guess is the desire overcomes the talent level at certain times and makes them look better. I think a lot of this is residual effects of a past coaching regime that was so inept as to confuse it's players rather than improve them. I think we are on the right track with Kubiak, but it will take time for them to learn how to be good. the only position that really worries me is CB2 and FS. Kubiak doesn't think we are that weak there, I think we are very weak. we will have to see what happens. that being said, if the enigma continues this year they will look great at times, and they will look awful at other times. if the great part wins over we squeak into the playoffs, if the awful part does we make 7-9 to 8-8. my 2 cents. OK actually its about 4 cents, sorry for the length

 

[real]

They don't allow animated avs, so no luck with that here

 

[infantrycak]

The difference between a really talented team in the NFL and a marginal team is about 1 or 2 key players.

Those 1 or 2 players bring so much to the table that they make everybody better around them.

This is half the equation. The other half is the difference between a really talented team and a marginal team is 1-3 plays a game because that will decide -8 games a season. Same players will be perceived as much more talented on a 10-6 team than on a 6-10 team. Sometimes it is a real talent difference on those 1-3 plays but often times it is other factors--miscommunication, poor coaching decision, blown call by a ref, cranial flatulence, etc. Works both ways--sometimes a 10-6 team really only has 6-10 talent.

 

[TK_Gamer]

Defense

DT - Travis Johnson is a bust, and we had street free agents manning the position last season. Those FA's did an acceptable job, though, and Smith and Kubiak did a fine job of identifying personnel that could help. With a coaching change, these guys could go either way. Okoye should be an upgrade to either, and they'll benefit from overall better play, I think.

I'll have to disagree on TJ, I'll wait to see what he does this year if he stays healthy before I go the bust route. If he shows up ready to go at camp, I say his stock with me goes way up.

S - Glenn Earl and CC Brown just don't cut it in the NFL. They might make decent backups, but they really shouldn't be starting. I think we could maybe get away with Glenn Earl starting, if we had a good S opposite him, but with two bad options, it's just all bad. Of the two, I think Earl is a more legit NFL talent. If the rookie somehow has an impact, maybe we'll see improvement. Of all our rookies, the safety is the one I am least optimistic about. Bottom 5 in the league.

Brown has not shown me anything yet, but Kubes sees something in him apparently, I'll give the experimental deep secondary another year to see what magic Kubiak can pull off. I also think Earl is legit, he is a bit slow, and lacks man coverage skills, but decent zone guy, and good againt the run.

the secondary is my strongest worry, I really hope someone we picked up becomes a jewel and the front seven can put enough pressure on the QB to limit the 15 seconds of time to throw deep. that hurt us in alot of games last year.

 

[eriadoc]

I would disagree with this in regards to a couple guys.

Farve - (whom I love watching) He is aging and has maybe two years left in him. He has been through a lot in his career.

And yet he has still managed over 3800 yards each of the last two seasons. He isn't what he was, but he can still do it. Schaub has not.

McNair - He is aging as well and his play last year was not what it used to be.

McNair has never been one to put up gaudy stats, but he just gets the job done when it needs being done. He gave the Ravens just what they needed last year, and they made the playoffs. They lost to the eventual SB champs, and the Colts played a helluva game. Again, McNair is still getting it done, despite his age.

McNabb - He has been injured so much the last few years I would stay away from him. do you think the Eagles drafted a QB in the second round because they have this supreme confidence in him?

I'll give you the injury thing, and personally, I am not as high on him as many other people. I think his accuracy has been questionable in his career (not talking comp.%), and I just don't like his style of play. But he is an even more prolific passer at this stage of his career, and that team wins and loses because of him moreso than any other player (Westbrook is a close 2nd). McNabb is way, way, way ahead of Schaub right now.

Green - Is on the downside of his career as well and the Chiefs are looking to replace him.

Green lost his job due to injury, but was playing pretty well prior to that (too many INTs). And he only posted over 4000 yards the three preceding seasons. Again, if we're arguing upside, I'll give you Schaub over these guys - I said that in my initial post. But we're talking about the here and now.

E Manning - What hashe shown in his first few years? Nothing you put him here because of name only (IMO).

Nothing could be further from the truth. I cannot stand either of the Manning sons, and I really wish they'd stop trotting out Dad all the time, too. Nonetheless, Eli already has shown more than most of the young QBs in the league. Both of the past two seasons, he has thrown 24 TDs to only 17 and 18 INTs, respectively. He has his problems, to be sure, and he seems to have hit a plateau, but he has shown he can be a winning QB in this league.

I like Schaub's upside, and I am optimistic about him. And I liked the trade. If it doesn't work out, I'll still look back and like the fact that the team took a chance on him and made the trade. But hey, I was also optimistic about David Carr, and we all know how that turned out. As of right now, I'll take any of those guys over Schaub. In a year, I hope to bump Schaub up that list quite a ways.

 

[eriadoc]

I think the Texans are what you might call an enigma in the NFL talent wise, they tend to do good to great when they can all work together with no one element taking all the strain. when they have a break down in one area they tend to get exponentially worse. if the front 4 is ineffective the whole defense plays mediocre to bad regardless of personnel on the field, but if if every segment avoids bad mistakes, the the whole becomes way better than the some of it's parts, thus the enigma.

That's not talent; that's teamwork. No other major sport is as dependent upon it as football is.

If we're talking production, there's no question we're very near the bottom of the league at nearly every position. If we're talking talent (which is the thread topic), then we're still near the bottom in many areas, but we have a few very talented players. AJ, DRob, AGreen, OD, MW, Weaver, Okoye, and Schaub all come to mind. But of those very talented players I mentioned, what kind of production have we gotten?

Talent, to me, in a football context, connotes upside and a certain skill set. These guys are surrounded by subpar talent, still. Anthony Maddox? Thomas Johnson? Fred Weary? Ephraim Salaam? What do they do that is better than anyone in the league, and where does that skill set rank? I'll give them all hard work and great character grades, and I like them on the team. But honestly, they are backup-quality guys, at best.

I'll use CB as an example. DRob has talent; I think we all agree. What does that mean, though? Well, his production hasn't been what we'd expect, so we have to look deeper. As I mentioned in an earlier post, he has great recovery speed. The first time I saw him in a Texans uniform, this jumped out at me. He can be fooled on a hook route or out route, yet he still can get back to the ball. He's done it many times. I think he loses focus, or drive, or whatever at times, and doesn't give 100% effort, but that's a different topic. His recovery speed is among the 15 best CBs in football, IMO, but not his production. He has very fluid hips, which is a big part of recovering. He can switch his hips very well and run with most WRs. He does this very well. These are things you can see, and measure, but that doesn't mean they translate to production.

OK, what does Faggins have? He has a great work ethic; I'll say that. He also has that intangible knack for being around the ball a fair bit, which is good. He doesn't have great speed, he doesn't have a great vertical jump, and he doesn't have great quickness or agility. In any of those categories, or whatever else you define as a desirable trait for CBs, where does he rank? He's a nickel back, nothing more.

That is the criteria that I tried to use in grading the talent on this team, and I see big holes in a few places. A team is not going to have top talent at every position, and you have to be able to get good production from less than premium talent. But we're still at least three players away from solidifying the talent base in certain areas, and that's not considering depth. We need a real corner opposite DRob. He doesn't have to be an elite corner, but he has to be able to hold down a team's #2 WR. We need a left tackle, badly. Salaam, Black, and whatever other scrubs they put out there just isn't going to cut it. We don't absolutely need Orlando Pace or Jon Ogden, but someone at least on par with Marvel Smith or Tarik Glenn or Bryant McKinnie would be nice. And finally, we really need a safety. If Glenn Earl is the guy that's identified as the more talented of the two we have (IMO, yes), then get a rangy, ballhawk type FS on the other side of him. Earl can support the run, and he can hit, but his ball skills are weak. Lessen his exposure by pairing him with a ballhawk.

Anyway, this post went on far too long, lol.

 

[hollywood_texan]

This is half the equation. The other half is the difference between a really talented team and a marginal team is 1-3 plays a game because that will decide -8 games a season. Same players will be perceived as much more talented on a 10-6 team than on a 6-10 team. Sometimes it is a real talent difference on those 1-3 plays but often times it is other factors--miscommunication, poor coaching decision, blown call by a ref, cranial flatulence, etc. Works both ways--sometimes a 10-6 team really only has 6-10 talent.

Yep, 2 or 3 plays in game can mean the difference between a win/blowout etc. But, I think those key plays are usually influenced heavily by the 1 or 2 key players I mentioned earlier.

I understand your point about a 10-6 team that really only has 6-10 talent and the difference is due to a couple plays and things just went their way. But, over a course of the season, I don't see them capitalizing on that many plays to improve their team record dramatically above their talent level.

It's like shooting jump shots in the NBA. A guy may shoot lights out in a game, but over a course of the season, it all averages out. Bottom line, you got to get to the rim to win in the NBA.

Back to the NFL, I really think the difference between a top tier team and middle of the pack team is 1 to 2 players and how they influence those 1 - 3 keys plays in a game, like you mentioned.

Hopefully, Schuab is that guy. If he is, then there won't be threads like this time next year.

Here is to looking forward to that...