There is a chance he can do for the Texans what the Edge did for Arizona.
And there's a chance he's the next Deuce McAllister or LJ or LT or Emmit Smith or ...
That's true of ANYONE you pick. There are no sure things. If you're only going to pick someone you're sure is going to be good, then you won't make any picks at all. Coming into the league, guys like Tony Mandarich, Robert Gallery, Jeff George, Ryan Leaf, etc., all looked like sure things. I mean, iirc,Tony Eason was rated higher than Dan Marino, fer crying out loud.
We've still got a long way to go before the draft. People are going to fall and people are going to shoot up the draft boards. And then there are some teams that are going to make unexpected picks. And this time next year, everyone will be talking about how everyone could miss on this player or that player.
For example, this time last year, I read a mock that had Demeco Ryans in the top 10. Stuff happened and he fell down the charts. "He's too small; he's too slow; blah blah blah." We steal him in the second round.
As much as they try to make it into a science, drafting players is still magic.
So, yeah, Adrian Peterson might be the Edge in Arizona. Or he could be the guy that can make a mediocre line into a group of probowlers. He might suck at the Combine. The doctor's might find some medical conditions and we might pick him up... in the 4th round.
At this point, it's interesting to discuss who's going to draft whom, but it really is just mental masturbation at this point.