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Pro Football Weekly Article

Thanks! Really good article. Hey, they talk about Carr's "old system" too. It is exactly what we looked like the past couple years, and it looks like it's the same system the Cowboys are running on right now as well. Bledsoe isn't a slow guy if you see him take off and run. He's just immobile in the pocket because maybe that's what the system requires? People say Romo has more mobility, but lets see how mobile he is under that system they're using, than we can decide who to blame. Glad Palmer was able to find a job in Big D. :) :) :) I'm not too high when people rave about his 70% completion percentage though, as we all know he dumps it off to a RB a millions times a game. Not that it's a bad thing mind you, it's just something that needs to be put into context.

I also like the comments on how the WR position is played in the WCO. Anyone notice why TO hasn't been the game changer that he has been in Philly and San Fran? He's not in the WCO anymore, and people have said Bledsoe and TO have had trouble hooking up since preseason. He's still a great reciever, but he was much better player before coming to Dallas. And in the past, he didn't have a Terry Glenn on the other side of the ball either.
 
phan1 said:
I'm not too high when people rave about his 70% completion percentage though, as we all know he dumps it off to a RB a millions times a game. Not that it's a bad thing mind you, it's just something that needs to be put into context.
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OK--let's put it in context:

Carr 25% to RB's
Plummer 27%
Peyton 19%
Grossman 25%
Rivers 31%
Eli 22%
McNabb 34%
Brees 42%
Johnson 35%
Bulger 30%
Big Ben 33%

That's some pretty good teams right now and the defending SB champ. In context, doesn't seem out of line.
 
Reddevil63 said:
Well ya, because he as the reincarnation of Gayle Sayers, Walter Payton and Jesus all rolled into one to throw to.





:chicken:
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Only problem is, of the top 40 rated recievers in receptions, he is #40 and he has the lowest YPC of all the league. Lots of catches....not much done with them. They are trying to get him into space so he can move around, just not happining....yet.
 
infantrycak said:
OK--let's put it in context:

Carr 25% to RB's
Plummer 27%
Peyton 19%
Grossman 25%
Rivers 31%
Eli 22%
McNabb 34%
Brees 42%
Johnson 35%
Bulger 30%
Big Ben 33%

That's some pretty good teams right now and the defending SB champ. In context, doesn't seem out of line.
Click to expand...


I know you are a moderator here, but personally, I'm getting sick and tired of your "Bull in a China Shop" logic stomping in here and destroying any chance there is of an argument based on nothing...

You do know where you are, right? :>)
 
infantrycak said:
OK--let's put it in context:

That's some pretty good teams right now and the defending SB champ. In context, doesn't seem out of line.
Click to expand...

Well, I guess those stats shut me up. He also has a YPA of 7.05, which is just about the middle of the pack... I don't get it. I watch other games too and I still don't see guys dump off to RBs the same way Carr does. Maybe someone should look up "yards gained when passed to RBs". Cause there are times when he throws to the RB like it's his first read or something, which often results in a paultry 2-3 yd gain if at all. In the last game, he's in a 3rd and long situation and blatantly throws it to his RB for no gain as if it was his first read or something. That the heck is that?!? Everyone talks about it, but it doesn't show up on paper for some reason! Phantom stats I tell you!
 
phan1 said:
Well, I guess those stats shut me up. He also has a YPA of 7.05, which is just about the middle of the pack... I don't get it. I watch other games too and I still don't see guys dump off to RBs the same way Carr does. Maybe someone should look up "yards gained when passed to RBs". Cause there are times when he throws to the RB like it's his first read or something, which often results in a paultry 2-3 yd gain if at all. In the last game, he's in a 3rd and long situation and blatantly throws it to his RB for no gain as if it was his first read or something. That the heck is that?!? Everyone talks about it, but it doesn't show up on paper for some reason! Phantom stats I tell you!
Click to expand...

It's because of a phenomenon called Confirmation Bias. I'm not being sarcastic or funny.

In psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors.
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I see it in full effect on the MBs all the time... pretty compelling stuff..
Read more here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
 
phan1 said:
Well, I guess those stats shut me up.
Click to expand...

Wasn't trying to shut you up--just provide the context you acknowledged might be helpful.

I watch other games too and I still don't see guys dump off to RBs the same way Carr does.
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I suspect that falls squarely in Michaelm's post.

Maybe someone should look up "yards gained when passed to RBs".
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So far they are averaging 5.1 ypr by the RB's which I suspect is below a more normal average in the 7+ ypr range. IMO that is more a reflection on our RB's as for the past two years DD has averaged 8.6 ypr on dump offs.

In the last game, he's in a 3rd and long situation and blatantly throws it to his RB for no gain as if it was his first read or something. That the heck is that?!?
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That's an incorrectly recalled play. The pass you are thinking of was 3rd and 12 at the Houston 18. Coaches will very frequently go conservative in that situation with a draw play or short pass--that one was a 3 yd pass to Moulds hoping he could make a move or two. The only passes to RB's on 3rd down were a 4yd completion to Gado on 3rd & 5 and an incompletion to Cook on 3rd & 4.
 
phan1 said:
Well, I guess those stats shut me up. He also has a YPA of 7.05, which is just about the middle of the pack... I don't get it. I watch other games too and I still don't see guys dump off to RBs the same way Carr does. Maybe someone should look up "yards gained when passed to RBs". Cause there are times when he throws to the RB like it's his first read or something, which often results in a paultry 2-3 yd gain if at all. In the last game, he's in a 3rd and long situation and blatantly throws it to his RB for no gain as if it was his first read or something. That the heck is that?!? Everyone talks about it, but it doesn't show up on paper for some reason! Phantom stats I tell you!
Click to expand...

I think it's because you just really want him to go longer more often in those situations. I don't think what you're seeing is really all that unusual. (Although I don't have stats to back it up.) Even on 3rd and longs, that underneath dump off might well be the first read. McNabb does this sort of thing alot. So does Brady. It's kinda like running a draw or a screen in that situation.
 
IMO, part of the misconception in # passes to RB's may be because Carr dumps down so much to the WR (primarily in the past), which means he actually has/does throw a lot of short (dink/dunk) passes---but not just to the RB.

When a QB's ypa (yds per attempt) dips below 7, it's an indication that he throws short passes. Last year, Carr was below 6-against the Cowboys last week, he was below 5. Against the Jags, Carr completed over 73% of his passes, but his ypa was below 7 (6.6). A low percentage completion percentage with a lot of passes thrown can also result in a lower ypa but-IMO-may not necessarily 'translate' into a short passing game---

Overall, though, IMO, Carr is showing improvement this year. In Kubiak's offense, it's all about 'positive' yds. Rather than increasing the ypa by throwing the ball 'further' down field, it's all about receivers (RB/WR/TE) that can catch 'short' passes that can turned them into 'bigger' yac (yds after catch). Of course-to do that-you have to have that 'type' of receiver, and we have several.....and,of course, a QB-like Carr-that can make all the 'throws'...

And, as mentioned before by other posters, when the above happens-it opens up an occasional 'big' throw that stretches the field....
 
The Pencil Neck said:
I think it's because you just really want him to go longer more often in those situations. I don't think what you're seeing is really all that unusual. (Although I don't have stats to back it up.) Even on 3rd and longs, that underneath dump off might well be the first read. McNabb does this sort of thing alot. So does Brady. It's kinda like running a draw or a screen in that situation.
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You took my example with McNabb but to add to it Westbrook is more of a receiver out of the backfield than a running back getting a dumpoff.
 
NATHANHALE said:
IMO, part of the misconception in # passes to RB's may be because Carr dumps down so much to the WR (primarily in the past), which means he actually has/does throw a lot of short (dink/dunk) passes---but not just to the RB.

When a QB's ypa (yds per attempt) dips below 7, it's an indication that he throws short passes. Last year, Carr was below 6-against the Cowboys last week, he was below 5. Against the Jags, Carr completed over 73% of his passes, but his ypa was below 7 (6.6). A low percentage completion percentage with a lot of passes thrown can also result in a lower ypa but-IMO-may not necessarily 'translate' into a short passing game---

Overall, though, IMO, Carr is showing improvement this year. In Kubiak's offense, it's all about 'positive' yds. Rather than increasing the ypa by throwing the ball 'further' down field, it's all about receivers (RB/WR/TE) that can catch 'short' passes that can turned them into 'bigger' yac (yds after catch). Of course-to do that-you have to have that 'type' of receiver, and we have several.....and,of course, a QB-like Carr-that can make all the 'throws'...

And, as mentioned before by other posters, when the above happens-it opens up an occasional 'big' throw that stretches the field....
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We did have the big throw against the Jags. When Carr just stepped back & heaved it to AJ for the TD.

I like our short passing game. It eats up clock when we are ahead cuz most passes are complete.

It is also very difficult to have any passing game when you cant run the ball (which is our case for most the year). When you cant run, the short passing game acts almost as your running game.

i admit that I get very frustrated when Carr throws a 4 yd route on 3rd & 8. But it is the only way we have moved the ball until the Jax game.
 
phan1 said:
Well, I guess those stats shut me up. He also has a YPA of 7.05, which is just about the middle of the pack... I don't get it. I watch other games too and I still don't see guys dump off to RBs the same way Carr does. Maybe someone should look up "yards gained when passed to RBs". Cause there are times when he throws to the RB like it's his first read or something, which often results in a paultry 2-3 yd gain if at all. In the last game, he's in a 3rd and long situation and blatantly throws it to his RB for no gain as if it was his first read or something. That the heck is that?!? Everyone talks about it, but it doesn't show up on paper for some reason! Phantom stats I tell you!
Click to expand...


Sometimes it may be his first read depending on the defense he sees at the line of scrimmage. There's nothing wrong with dumping the ball to your back if a) he can catch the ball (which ours can) and b) he's agile enough to find a lane and pick up positive yardage. Let's face it, we can't run the ball very well so it's just as easy to pick up 3-4 yrds throwing to your backs as long as it results in short yardage situations for 3rd down. West Coast offenses are all about YAC and it doesn't matter if it's the receivers or backs.....whatever works.
 
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