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Made it to Week 15! Survivor League help please

A

AndyWin

Nguyenning
Well, that's 2 weeks in a row now where all 6 of us advanced. The stakes have made every Sunday incredibly stressful. From Patriots almost blowing it to Houston the week before to Ravens/Vikings scoring FIVE touchdowns in the final 2:07 on Sunday...

3 of us got lucky with the Ravens (almost had a heart attack). 1 guy got lucky with Patriots over Browns on an onside kick and phantom pass interference call in the endzone. 2 easily picked Denver over Titans.

This week, I'm the only one left who has Carolina left and they play Jets at home. After the embarrassment last night in New Orleans, I think Carolina gets focused and bounces back. Their defense should be too strong for Geno Smith to handle. #1 rush defense and #5 pass defense... #2 overall defense. Jets have a stout rush defense themselves, but this game is home in Carolina (6-1) and they play well at home while the Jets (1-6) play poorly on the road. Jets looked good at home against the Raiders but I'm not sure how much weight to put on that. They lost 3 straight before that in blowouts (@buffalo, @baltimore, vsMiami)

3 other guys can choose Kansas City this week @ Oakland. They should easily win, but it's still a road game. I prefer to avoid this game since 3 others will be using them (I'm just assuming because it's the only other game in Week 15 that is as obvious as a NFL game can get). IF the Raiders do win, it would put me in prime position! (or I could just be the only idiot eliminated ugh)

Not sure what the 2 other guys will do. They don't have Carolina or KC to use... I guess one could use Denver at home vs Chargers? Gross...

I put so much thought into these every week, but I know every week will be close and come down to the final few minutes. It's been brutal! I hope Carolina pounces on them early. Jets are a bit unpredictable but on the road vs a tough/physical team that just got embarrassed... they are going to jump on the rookie Geno hard.

For what it's worth:
Week 16: I'm doing Bengals at home vs Vikings. Everyone has Bengals left though so I'm assuming everyone is using them this week. There's really no other smart game to choose.

Week 17: Either Steelers home vs Browns or Miami home vs Jets... Stressful
 
Playoffs said:
Panthers definitely the pick this week, imo. Break a leg!
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Only thing is you never know what you're gonna get with these Jets. Their defense is strong, and that alone can keep them in any game.
Carolina looked VERY vulnerable @ New Orleans the other day but who doesn't I suppose...

I'll continue to beat myself up over this for the next 6 days...
 
Wow, you are in good position, congrats! Carolina and KC should easily win this week, so either is a good pick, unless you want to save them for a future week.

Cincy over Minny in week 16 is great. AP might not even play that game, which would make it a lock for Cincy.

Week 17 I'd go with the Dolphins fighting for a WC spot at home. They should show up for that game.
 
Dutchrudder said:
Wow, you are in good position, congrats! Carolina and KC should easily win this week, so either is a good pick, unless you want to save them for a future week.

Cincy over Minny in week 16 is great. AP might not even play that game, which would make it a lock for Cincy.

Week 17 I'd go with the Dolphins fighting for a WC spot at home. They should show up for that game.
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Thanks! I think AP is fine though... but it definitely makes sense for Minnesota to rest him. No point in having him play and carry 25-30+ times and risk something. That being said, Toby Gerhart is a very viable running back. But yes, Bengals at home playing for playoffs and Vikings playing for nothing. (said the same thing on Sunday about the Ravens vs Vikings game and that almost killed me)

I'd monitor Miami and Steeler's playoff status and choose the team with most to play for in Week 17.
 
I would bet all the money and assets I have to my name that the Steelers will not make the playoffs this year.
 
AndyWin said:
That's all fine and dandy... but what about just a win in week 17 vs the Browns? :)
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Well if you're picking between two teams based on "what they have to play for" I'll take the currently 7-6 Dolphins over the 5-8 Steelers. They will be fighting with the Ravens for that last WC spot.
 
Congrats on getting this far. I fell on black Sunday when the titans and colts both lost at home to bad teams.

I never trust divisional road games in these things. I also invest in home teams whenever possible this late, and having the panthers available is a nice luxury.

I also agree with others, having the bengals on tap vs the vikes is a bonus.

My survivor finally ended, the final 3 chopped part of the pot then played for the rest, kinda like a poker final table deal.
 
toronto said:
Congrats on getting this far. I fell on black Sunday when the titans and colts both lost at home to bad teams.

I never trust divisional road games in these things. I also invest in home teams whenever possible this late, and having the panthers available is a nice luxury.

I also agree with others, having the bengals on tap vs the vikes is a bonus.

My survivor finally ended, the final 3 chopped part of the pot then played for the rest, kinda like a poker final table deal.
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Ugh I wish we could get a chop going in this pool. $35,000 is A LOT of money even if there are 6 people left. I think if it gets down to 3 or 4, there will be more interest in a chop... unfortunately, the commissioner has refused to help organize any kind of chop. SO annoying

I know if I could at least e-mail the other 5, they would all want to at least discuss the option (even if they didn't all agree). Sure is hard to turn down a gauranteed $5800 considering the buy-in was only $30
 
OMG 2 people eliminated tonight with Broncos!!!!

Down to 4!!!! Ahhhhhh I wish we could chop! Would be nearly $10,000 each
 
toronto said:
If the other 3 all agree there should be no reason. That's a ton of money.
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Well to be fair they would have to play this week out. If two people went out last night the others should have to pick a game and see what happens but after everyone had the same number of picks it should be over
 
2012Champs said:
Well to be fair they would have to play this week out. If two people went out last night the others should have to pick a game and see what happens but after everyone had the same number of picks it should be over
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Just speaking from what I saw in my pool, the moderator was happy to oblige the last 3. They cut a deal, then left a decent pot to play for the rest. Granted my total prize pool was maybe 4k, which is peanuts compared to this, but still, same idea and principles.
 
toronto said:
Just speaking from what I saw in my pool, the moderator was happy to oblige the last 3. They cut a deal, then left a decent pot to play for the rest. Granted my total prize pool was maybe 4k, which is peanuts compared to this, but still, same idea and principles.
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I'm not sure what his deal is. He won't give out any of our e-mail addresses so there's no way for any of us to get in touch. He said "rules are rules and the rules say to play until one"

Yeesh
 
AndyWin said:
I'm not sure what his deal is. He won't give out any of our e-mail addresses so there's no way for any of us to get in touch. He said "rules are rules and the rules say to play until one"

Yeesh
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What an absolute douche commish. You need to really grind out some detective work here. $10k is too much not to put your ear to the street and start digging for clues.

Is this all done via his email or a website? Websites are pretty easy to figure out contact information.

If it's email does he really email you all 1 at a time? I'm sure there was a point, maybe even in the beginning of the season where he mass emailed the ~1167 people. I would go back to that email thread and mass email it back, cutting the commish out of the email and say, "who of you left are these 3 remaining user names (insert user names/whatever name provided here)"

$10K is too much cash to be scared off by some spam mail. If the commish won't help you cut a deal, you owe NOTHING to the first 2 players eliminated Thursday night.

Source: Myself, not cutting a game changing deal once and losing.
 
TexansFTW said:
What an absolute douche commish. You need to really grind out some detective work here. $10k is too much not to put your ear to the street and start digging for clues.

Is this all done via his email or a website? Websites are pretty easy to figure out contact information.

If it's email does he really email you all 1 at a time? I'm sure there was a point, maybe even in the beginning of the season where he mass emailed the ~1167 people. I would go back to that email thread and mass email it back, cutting the commish out of the email and say, "who of you left are these 3 remaining user names (insert user names/whatever name provided here)"

$10K is too much cash to be scared off by some spam mail. If the commish won't help you cut a deal, you owe NOTHING to the first 2 players eliminated Thursday night.

Source: Myself, not cutting a game changing deal once and losing.
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It's a ***** move to cut a deal after 2 people played 15 games and the others 14
 
TexansFTW said:
What an absolute douche commish. You need to really grind out some detective work here. $10k is too much not to put your ear to the street and start digging for clues.

Is this all done via his email or a website? Websites are pretty easy to figure out contact information.

If it's email does he really email you all 1 at a time? I'm sure there was a point, maybe even in the beginning of the season where he mass emailed the ~1167 people. I would go back to that email thread and mass email it back, cutting the commish out of the email and say, "who of you left are these 3 remaining user names (insert user names/whatever name provided here)"

$10K is too much cash to be scared off by some spam mail. If the commish won't help you cut a deal, you owe NOTHING to the first 2 players eliminated Thursday night.

Source: Myself, not cutting a game changing deal once and losing.
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He emails everyone but blind copies the group. There's a website with a messageboard but NO ONE uses it. I've posted like 20 messages with the topic headline "email me if you want to chop" and have gotten no responses lol.

Commish is a total control freak that's for sure.
 
OMGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

GO PANTHERS NOW!!!!

OR Saints

Me and the final guy made a deal :) :) :) :)
 
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