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The Elephant in the room (Kubiak's November record)

Lucky

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
Everything seems positive with the Texans, now. Well, as positive as it can with 3 of their top players out with injuries. We're talking defensive rankings, Pro Bowls, and playoff seeding. That's right. Not just playoffs. Playoff seeding.

But, it's November 1st. And what no one's talking about is what happens to the Texans in November. They lose. A lot. 14 L's over 20 games during the Kubiak era. Gary is actually 4 games over .500 in all other months combined. And while no one is saying it, everyone is aware that the Texans entered November of 2009 and 2010 with winning records. We all know what happened after that.

Does this year feel different? Yes, it does. Enter Wade Phillips. Exit Peyton Manning. And don't forget Denny's new Baconalia menu. Gary loves it.

kubiak2.jpg


But why have the Texans struggled in November's past? My feeling is that the collars on Kirby just got a little tighter during this part of the season. That can't happen this year. Home for Cleveland, on the road to Tampa and Jacksonville. Two & one won't put them in the playoffs. But at least they can enter December at 7-4 and see the playoffs from there. And that's a far better sight than this big elephant we're looking at now.
 
Is it me or does it feel like Gary this year has gotten rid of his scripted plays? We seem a LOT more effective on the first/second drives in the game this year.
 
Actually feels different. The defense is playing well even with injuries. they face two really young QBs, and a thrid that has been hit or miss this year. No dynamic offenses and low possibility for bad weather.

With the Foster and tate running game, as Sunday proved the Texans also don't have to play pretty in 2011. Still because this is the NFL (mostly) and the Texans, I expect them to lose one of the games, just because it (sh) happens.
 
We have the browns up next and while half of their defense is great I believe someone will haves big day. We usually get a win when one of our three has a big day, and a blowout when two of them have a good day. In my opinion Adrian goes off for 210 rushing and receiving. Matt throws for 320, and the Texans win.

Texans over browns 31-10

Tampa is no slouch but I think they aren't as good as people make them out to be. Blount is great at taking advantage of holes but our run defense has been stellar and I look for us to continue this trend. I believe the pass game might take a hit in this game but Adrian and Tate bail us out with 250 combined rushing yards.

Texans over Tampa 26-20, win by 2 field goals.

We have a bye here and with Andre needing the extra time I look for our whole team to be revitalized. The tale of the tape has been horrid losses following the some teams bye week. However with Andre coming back to the lineup Im thinking it ignites a fire under our assets. 2 weeks of great practice and almost everyone returning to form.

Jacksonville is up next again and they will be in it to win it and hopefully to crush the Texans chances of a high seed. I look for Shaub to have his best game this season throwing for over 400 yards in a close game.

28-24 Texans
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
Actually feels different. The defense is playing well even with injuries. they face two really young QBs, and a thrid that has been hit or miss this year. No dynamic offenses and low possibility for bad weather.

With the Foster and tate running game, as Sunday proved the Texans also don't have to play pretty in 2011. Still because this is the NFL (mostly) and the Texans, I expect them to lose one of the games, just because it (sh) happens.
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What feels and shows the most to me is two things, the offense showing some life early in the game. And the defense is starting to show some swagger on the field they are starting to believe in themselves and forcing their will on the other teams. It's good to see for sure.
 
Endcoachment said:
We have the browns up next and while half of their defense is great I believe someone will haves big day. We usually get a win when one of our three has a big day, and a blowout when two of them have a good day. In my opinion Adrian goes off for 210 rushing and receiving. Matt throws for 320, and the Texans win.

Texans over browns 31-10

Tampa is no slouch but I think they aren't as good as people make them out to be. Blount is great at taking advantage of holes but our run defense has been stellar and I look for us to continue this trend. I believe the pass game might take a hit in this game but Adrian and Tate bail us out with 250 combined rushing yards.

Texans over Tampa 26-20, win by 2 field goals.

We have a bye here and with Andre needing the extra time I look for our whole team to be revitalized. The tale of the tape has been horrid losses following the some teams bye week. However with Andre coming back to the lineup Im thinking it ignites a fire under our assets. 2 weeks of great practice and almost everyone returning to form.

Jacksonville is up next again and they will be in it to win it and hopefully to crush the Texans chances of a high seed. I look for Shaub to have his best game this season throwing for over 400 yards in a close game.

28-24 Texans
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If JAX scores 24 on the D, we are in DEEP trouble.
 
Lucky said:
But why have the Texans struggled in November's past? My feeling is that the collars on Kirby just got a little tighter during this part of the season. That can't happen this year.
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I think it has to do with other coaches getting recent tape on the Texans. It's easy to say, "Don't bite on the play action." Early in the season. But after you watch 8 weeks of tape, the message kind of sinks in.
 
Kubes apparently has something like a 28-3 record when the texans run the ball more than 30 times in a game. Since it sounds like we won't have Andre for a while more, maybe this is the record that will take precedence!
 
Maybe relevant in the past but this year November is irrelavant as it includes the bye week and therefor only 3 games, 2 of which the Texans could very easily lose and still be in good shape. The real show-stopper for the 2011 season could be the post-November schedule when we play the last 5 game, atleast 4 of which we should win.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
Execution has been better.

:kubepalm:
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Agreed.

This is a good thread. Besides that it's about football, I made a similar post about how the Texans never beat both Titans AND Jaguars in their first games, which are always back to back. Before this year, it ALWAYS broke the Texans back, led them to a losing streak like the one described here.

Except this year, they won both games, are atop the AFC South in dominating fashion and are now on to the easiest portion of their schedule. Oh and there's a bye week and to my knowledge we haven't lost a bye week yet lol....

Who is it, Cleveland, Tampa...a bye...and...the Bengals? Right?

That should be at least 2 wins, well, it SHOULD be 3. I'll take 7-4/8-3.
 
robroy72 said:
Kubes apparently has something like a 28-3 record when the texans run the ball more than 30 times in a game. Since it sounds like we won't have Andre for a while more, maybe this is the record that will take precedence!
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1) Wade as defensive coordinator
2) Talented offensive players
3) Easy remaining schedule
4) Ultra-weak division
5) Injuries defining offensive game plan

Kubiak Proof!
 
TimeKiller said:
Agreed.

This is a good thread. Besides that it's about football, I made a similar post about how the Texans never beat both Titans AND Jaguars in their first games, which are always back to back. Before this year, it ALWAYS broke the Texans back, led them to a losing streak like the one described here.

Except this year, they won both games, are atop the AFC South in dominating fashion and are now on to the easiest portion of their schedule. Oh and there's a bye week and to my knowledge we haven't lost a bye week yet lol....

Who is it, Cleveland, Tampa...a bye...and...the Bengals? Right?

That should be at least 2 wins, well, it SHOULD be 3. I'll take 7-4/8-3.
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Haven't lost a bye week yet? How could you forget the string of heart breaking losses in 2009! We went to the colts and it came down to kris browns field goal to tie it up but he missed and we lost 17-20. Then the bye week. After the bye week we had a Monday night game against titans which we lost in the same way! It came down to a kris brown field goal to go to overtime but he missed and we lost 17-20!
 
In the past the Texans looked outcoached come November. At this time of the year teams have plenty of tape to review and I think that this team doesn't have near as many coaching flaws on defense and Wade has the ability to hide weak players without taking away from the teams strengths. "Finishing" is a theme this year, but "finishing" is merely being opportunistic, aggressive and outmaneuvering the rival coach. I think Kubiak was a slave to his conventions and that hurt him. What I mean by that is that is that he would do stuff like run right into the teeth of the defense on 4th down with a less physical zone blocking unit that had defenders in every gap and pass up a chip shot FG then go on to lose by a point. At the end of the game Kubiak would just rationalize some talking point about how you have to be able to get a yard. Well, that's all great in theory but rationalizations don't get the yard or the win. I think Kubiak still doesn't make great strategic decisions, but it seems like he has learned a little with all his failures....either that or I'm just drinking a little too much of the kewl-aide.
 
To be fair I have a huge critic of Kubiak, I have wanted him fired for the last three years(ish) but this year his coaching has actually improved somewhat. It seems like every game we are changing up the plays we are running, we might come out one game and toss 5 deep balls to keep the other team honest or we might come out running, we might kill em with the tight ends all game. I know the play calling on downs has been sorta obvious but it seems like game to game Kubiak is really changing how our offense is ran based on the other teams weakness. I am not going to sit here and say hes the coach for the Texans future and is the best coach ever but I have to give credit when it is due here.

Oh and by this I mean I think we will be fine this November despite the past.
 
Re: The Elephant in the room (Kubiak's November record)
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We are fixing to find out if that elephant is still there. If it is, it needs to be shot, blown up, and the carcass gotten the hell rid of.

But if that elephant has left the room, then we are drinking koolaid and eating doughnuts all the way to the playoffs.
 
It either happens again or it doesn't. The history says we're going to pull a 1-4 in November but the history also says we should be sporting a defense ranked somewhere in the upper 20's right about now.

I'm trying to stay positive. This year we win in November for a change. With wins over the Titans and Jaguars we have a Cleveland team coming to town that we should be able to handle. This is another scenario we've all seen before. Cleveland has been on our plate more than once when we were supposed to be able to dominate them and instead we choked. I don't think we choke this season. I think we win.

Having said that I won't be impressed with a win over Cleveland. I expect a win over Cleveland. We're supposed to beat Cleveland at our house. The highest score the Texans can get against Cleveland (at least to me) is "Meets Expectations". To lose would be disastrous but I don't think we're going to lose. A three game win streak over these teams isn't impressive though. It's what should happen.

What I will be impressed with is a win the following week at Tampax Bay. If we can go there and stretch this to four wins against a respectable Buccaneer's team I'll be impressed. That's 7-3 and four games over .500. That's a different kind of Texans team right there.

Then after the bye week we start what passes for the remaining "tough" part of our schedule.
 
Hervoyel said:
What I will be impressed with is a win the following week at Tampax Bay. If we can go there and stretch this to four wins against a respectable Buccaneer's team I'll be impressed. That's 7-3 and four games over .500. That's a different kind of Texans team right there.
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I agree with everything above, and especially this.

Winning on the road vs a team that isn't a pushover is a good start at being a good team. THAT is what confidence comes from. This team will start to become honestly confident when they start beating good teams on the road. I think we are finally on our way (that doesn't mean my fingers aren't crossed).
 
I wasn't encouraged that on two separate 3rd and 1 situations we ran the ball right up the middle and got stuffed both times.

Any other game, vs. any other opponent and I think those two failed 3rd and 1 failures might lead to the other team taking advantage and scoring some sort of points. The Jags offense is so weak and anemic that they couldn't do anything with it. Other teams' offense might fare better with the two ensuing possessions off those failed 3rd & 1 plays of ours.

The Browns game, to me, feels like the Raiders game all over again. A team we should handle, without any sort of dynamic QB (McCoy is sorta' like Campbell), in our house, it just sort of spooks me a bit.

People are also dismissing Blount too easily, IMO. He is a bruiser. He has shift in his hips and sees the field and knows how to run. He's EXACTLY the kind of RB who could run wild on our 34 defense. Freeman is a mobile guy, a big guy too. This game scares me also.

The Jax game does not scare me in the least bit, not even with it being in Jax. This year, we sweep our divisional foes...but will it offset what I think will be failures against non-divisional opponents that I think COULD happen if we fall asleep and teams "get up" for the Texans????

I dunno. We will be either (A) 3-0 in November, (B) 2-1, or (C) 1-2. We won't be 0-3, but I can see us falling asleep on teams in Nov and being 2-1 or at worse 1-2. The Browns game is huge. It starts with that one.
 
I know its really egotistical and koolaid filled for me to say it but with Cushing playing the way he is this season there isn't one running back in the NFL that really scares me. Ray Rice and MJD are two of the most premier backs in the NFL (top 5 at least) and we for the most part shut them down. I know Ray Rice got a few runs in on us but we took him out of the equation for a majority of the game.
 
It's a strange thing to see a franchise trend like the Texans have for the past several seasons. The November curse, the 5-7 thing four years in a row, the tale of two halves as a running theme...

But this season does feel different. Our defense is making plays. They are disrupting rhythms, creating opportunities, and showing a passion that we have never seen from a Texans defense.

If they had hired another FOG (friend of Gary) as DC, I think the trend would continue. However, I honestly think Wade brings something to the franchise that balances out whatever it is that Gary does/does not do during the November stretch. And unless this franchise has been cursed by some mystical force and all that jazz, I think the defense will ultimately save the day and win at least 2 games in November.

A 7-4 record going into December would be historic for this franchise. It would be the first time in a decade for the Texans (and 17 years for Houston fans) that football mattered in December.

They just have to run the November gauntlet...
 
Hervoyel said:
What I will be impressed with is a win the following week at Tampax Bay. If we can go there and stretch this to four wins against a respectable Buccaneer's team I'll be impressed. That's 7-3 and four games over .500. That's a different kind of Texans team right there.

Then after the bye week we start what passes for the remaining "tough" part of our schedule.
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On top of that, a win in Jacksonville after the bye, making it a 5 game win streak would really be impressive.

Say what you will about the Jags, but we saw two turnovers at home that almost put them in the game. Plus our offense struggled with their D, this is exactly the kind of game the Texans would lose.

Should win, the Jags are still a bad team, mainly because of their offense.

But if the Texans can pull that off & be 8-3 coming home to play Atlanta, I don't see how anyone (any Texans fan) can not get behind this team.
 
GP said:
I wasn't encouraged that on two separate 3rd and 1 situations we ran the ball right up the middle and got stuffed both times.

Any other game, vs. any other opponent and I think those two failed 3rd and 1 failures might lead to the other team taking advantage and scoring some sort of points. The Jags offense is so weak and anemic that they couldn't do anything with it. Other teams' offense might fare better with the two ensuing possessions off those failed 3rd & 1 plays of ours.
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I don't know that we don't pick up that yard against a lesser defense.

Gotta give them some credit. Kick our HC & OC in the gnads for calling the plays, especially after what we did vs Tennessee the week before. But that's a good defense & they did their job.

GP said:
People are also dismissing Blount too easily, IMO. He is a bruiser. He has shift in his hips and sees the field and knows how to run. He's EXACTLY the kind of RB who could run wild on our 34 defense. Freeman is a mobile guy, a big guy too. This game scares me also.
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We've faced three of the best runners this year & did a pretty good job of it. DMC, Ray Rice, & MJD. Blount is just another, I'm not too worried about him. It's a team game & their team is going to have to beat our team, Blount won't do it alone, he's not that kind of back.
GP said:
The Jax game does not scare me in the least bit, not even with it being in Jax. This year, we sweep our divisional foes...but will it offset what I think will be failures against non-divisional opponents that I think COULD happen if we fall asleep and teams "get up" for the Texans????
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They play Indy then Cleveland... They will be 5-6 when we see them in Jax. They beat Baltimore at home, on turnovers & pressuring the QB. They really don't have a bad loss on their schedule. We're not going to win out the rest of the season. It would be a mistake (imo) to sleep on the Jags at home.
 
GP said:
The Browns game, to me, feels like the Raiders game all over again. A team we should handle, without any sort of dynamic QB (McCoy is sorta' like Campbell), in our house, it just sort of spooks me a bit.
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In my case, I thought the Raiders would beat the Texans the whole week leading up to that game. I do not share the same trepidation this week and will be somewhat surprised if the Browns win. (Just somewhat, because as most of us know, the Texans are fully capable of losing this type of game).

To me the difference in the two games is the offense. The Texans now know how to run an effective offense without Dre. They had to modify the calls/system rather than just stick Jacoby in Dre's slot and not change much else.
 
Re: Kubiak's November record. Occam's Razor analysis below.

The Texans defense has been poop. Every year except for this one.

In 2009, it was better but was still poop. Maybe poop on a stick.

It's remarkable they've won as much as they have since Kubiak has been with team given their defense has been poop.

The End.
 
Texans_Chick said:
Re: Kubiak's November record. Occam's Razor analysis below.

The Texans defense has been poop. Every year except for this one.

In 2009, it was better but was still poop. Maybe poop on a stick.

It's remarkable they've won as much as they have since Kubiak has been with team given their defense has been poop.

The End.
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I understand your point but remarkable, eh. Lots of teams have had great offenses and crap defenses over the years and most of them are .500 teams who beat bad teams but can't beat contending teams, especially on the road. The Denny Green Cardinals and the Kubiak Texans (past) are two peas in a pod, biscuits and gravy, ham and cheese.
 
What is remarkable (to me, at least) is that Kubiak even has this job after his first five seasons.

The entire team and subsequent results represent the head coach, not just stats from one side of the ball.

If the defense has been lousy, then it's a direct reflection of the head coach's inability to hire a defensive coach that can improve it.

And coaches can make all the difference. Case in point: Wade with the Texans and Harbaugh with the 49ers (among others).

Texans Chick said:
The Texans defense has been poop. Every year except for this one.

In 2009, it was better but was still poop. Maybe poop on a stick.
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Yep. But, at least the Texans Marketing Team put sprinkles on it!
 
Vinny said:
I understand your point but remarkable, eh. Lots of teams have had great offenses and crap defenses over the years and most of them are .500 teams who beat bad teams but can't beat contending teams, especially on the road. The Denny Green Cardinals and the Kubiak Texans (past) are two peas in a pod, biscuits and gravy, ham and cheese.
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You can win with ok to bad defenses.

You can't win with historically horrific defenses. Even last year's bad New England defense ended up stringing together some above average performances.

Yes, it is on Kubiak/Smith that they didn't hire better defensive coordinators. Finding an experienced DC should have been the first order of business if you were going to have an offensive-minded head coach, working with a build through the draft, youngest in the league defensive starters.

Some of that may be who was available when they were looking, some not. I know a few coaches were not granted permission to talk to the Texans about the DC position at the time the Texans wanted to talk to them. There were no slam dunk candidates--all had pluses and minuses. Hard to say who exactly the alternatives were because they didn't want to undercut the coaches they did end up hiring.
 
Texans_Chick said:
You can win with ok to bad defenses.

You can't win with historically horrific defenses. Even last year's bad New England defense ended up stringing together some above average performances.

Yes, it is on Kubiak/Smith that they didn't hire better defensive coordinators. Finding an experienced DC should have been the first order of business if you were going to have an offensive-minded head coach, working with a build through the draft, youngest in the league defensive starters.

Some of that may be who was available when they were looking, some not. I know a few coaches were not granted permission to talk to the Texans about the DC position at the time the Texans wanted to talk to them. There were no slam dunk candidates--all had pluses and minuses. Hard to say who exactly the alternatives were because they didn't want to undercut the coaches they did end up hiring.
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yeah I can agree with that, historically horrific d tends to yield 6-10 seasons, not .500s like before when the defense was just plain ol' bad.
 
I don't even understand how this is an elephant in the room. You can't go anywhere without it being mentioned or more accurately, beaten to death.
 
It says something when the head coach loses his authority to pick his own staff. It says more that immediately someone else makes the best coaching staff decision of the Kubiak era.

Do the Texans now have a more subtle version of the Cowboys organization structure?
 
Elephants can be eaten just like anything else, one bite at a time. in the past a perfect storm of lack of talent, poor coaching, poor decisions, injuries etc blew our sailing ship onto the shoals. Did not destroy us but allowed us to go nowhere. This season the storm seems to push us to our goal.
 
Runner said:
It says something when the head coach loses his authority to pick his own staff. It says more that immediately someone else makes the best coaching staff decision of the Kubiak era.

Do the Texans now have a more subtle version of the Cowboys organization structure?
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Does it matter what the organization structure is as long as the structure works?

Owners and GMs frequently force Head Coaches to sacrifice coordinators. Sometimes young HCs aren't really trusted to put together their entire staff. Sometimes powerful GMs dictate a lot of what happens.
 
My prediction is that we'll make the playoffs with ease in this division, but lack a killer instinct and lose our first playoff game. Fans will act like Kubiak won a SB for that as well and Bob will get him an extension. Then it's next season where I'll worry a lot.
 
Texecutioner said:
My prediction is that we'll make the playoffs with ease in this division, but lack a killer instinct and lose our first playoff game. Fans will act like Kubiak won a SB for that as well and Bob will get him an extension. Then it's next season where I'll worry a lot.
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Why worry? You'll know what's going to happen. Manning will be back, Colts will be back on top. Gabbert will have it all figured out plus a bad-ass receiver from the draft. Tennessee will get behind Hasselbeck & be a better mediocre than we will be.

Nothing to worry about.
 
thunderkyss said:
Why worry? You'll know what's going to happen. Manning will be back, Colts will be back on top. Gabbert will have it all figured out plus a bad-ass receiver from the draft. Tennessee will get behind Hasselbeck & be a better mediocre than we will be.

Nothing to worry about.
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I'm not sure why you decided to respond if you were just going to go off the wall and write something like that.
 
Texans_Chick said:
Re: Kubiak's November record. Occam's Razor analysis below.

The Texans defense has been poop. Every year except for this one.

In 2009, it was better but was still poop. Maybe poop on a stick.

It's remarkable they've won as much as they have since Kubiak has been with team given their defense has been poop.

The End.
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Didn't the Texans field the same poop defense during September, October, and December? Why did it matter more in November than other months? Also, it was the offense that spit the bit during November '09. The defense played well enough to win most of those games.

The Texans win this month, and no one will care what happened in the past. If they lose in November, then yes, this trend deserves more scrutiny.
 
silvrhand said:
Is it me or does it feel like Gary this year has gotten rid of his scripted plays? We seem a LOT more effective on the first/second drives in the game this year.
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Nope. Still running scripted plays (as many teams do), but I have gotten the sense that the number of scripted plays has been cut by nealry 50%...

That's a good thing in that it allows you to adjust to what they're doing to you a lot sooner.
 
Texan_Bill said:
Nope. Still running scripted plays (as many teams do), but I have gotten the sense that the number of scripted plays has been cut by nealry 50%...

That's a good thing in that it allows you to adjust to what they're doing to you a lot sooner.
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Considering how many times we've come out and scored on our 1st drive this season, maybe we should script the whole damned game.
 
When guys execute scripted plays work well.

But all the script does is give you a starting point for your play calling and it lets the offense start comfortably to get into a rythm When you get into certain situations you abandon the script though.

Kubiak has mentioned "abandoning the script" before because of penalties or some other loss if yardage or no gain.

I think the first drives are still scripted. I just think that the offense in general is executing well on those drives.
 
Texan_Bill said:
Nope. Still running scripted plays (as many teams do), but I have gotten the sense that the number of scripted plays has been cut by nealry 50%...

That's a good thing in that it allows you to adjust to what they're doing to you a lot sooner.
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Agreed I think at times that Gary is just a slow learner and is taking a lot longer to adjust to being the HC. This year I've seen somewhat more of a desperate or more risk taking approach to Gary that I seem to like..

Ughh did I just say that.. :choke:
 
thunderkyss said:
Why worry? You'll know what's going to happen. Manning will be back, Colts will be back on top. Gabbert will have it all figured out plus a bad-ass receiver from the draft. Tennessee will get behind Hasselbeck & be a better mediocre than we will be.

Nothing to worry about.
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I'm not completely sure that the Colts would just go back to double digit wins every season just by Manning coming back. Their O-line and offense might look better than the Benny Hill show they currently are trotting out there, but that defense is still horrible. Both of their hotshot corners from 2010 (Lacey and Powers) both aren't very good this year.
 
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