Death to Google Ads! Texans Talk Tip Jar! 🍺😎👍
Thanks for your support!

The next 5 year plan

J

Jackie Chiles

Veteran
Lets assume, for the purpose of this exercise that Kubiak is fired at the end of the year. Now without getting into specifics with regard to all the different directions we could take as far as the head coach and his staff, what kind of success does the team need to have within a 5 year period for you to be happy with where we are at?

A quick history lesson:

Dom Capers: 18 wins, 46 losses .281 winning % No playoff appearances no playoff wins: We pretty much sucked.

Gary Kubiak: currently 35 wins, 39 losses .473 winning % No playoff appearances no playoff wins: Actually quite an improvement over Dom but it doesn't really feel like it and even if it did, its still not good enough.

For reference, here are a couple guys at the high end of the scale that we could hope to aspire to but would have a very difficult time approaching their level of success:

Andy Reid: 115 wins, 70 losses .622 winning % 8 playoff appearances including a Super Bowl, 10 playoff wins and 8 losses.

And the gold standard;

Bill Belichick(with NE): 121 wins, 50 losses .708 winning % 7 playoff appearances, 3 Super Bowl wins and 1 loss, 14 playoff wins and 4 losses.

We would have to hit the coaching lottery to have similar success so its not impossible but shouldn't be expected. So what can we expect? I'll throw out another case that has been mentioned on these boards for quite some time and its a guy I think would be the absolute best case scenario:

Mike Smith: 29 wins, 14 losses .674 winning % 1 playoff appearance, 0 playoff wins.

Probably too much to hope for but not impossible. I do, however, have a track record that I think we could be able to reproduce. That is the level of success that Mike Holmgren had while he was in Seattle.

Mike Holmgren, Seattle: 86 wins, 74 losses .541 winning % 6 playoff appearances, 1 Super Bowl loss, 4 playoff wins, 6 losses

Why Holmgren you ask? It all starts with the QB. Schaub has reminded me of Hasselbeck since the day he got here. In GB with Favre Holmgren posted a .670 winning %. He couldn't repeat that without old faithful but I think Schaub compares favorably to what he was working with in Seattle. The high end coaches I listed for reference also had/have some all-time greats at QB and Matt Ryan could be one before its all said and done. Therefore:

Mystery Texans future coach: about a 55% winning percentage in the regular season with a couple playoff appearances and at least 1 win within the first 5 years. I think I could live with that, what would it take for you? Am I being too lenient or are my expectations too lofty for an organization that hasn't proved anything so far?
 
I want to see a Houston NFL team win a Super Bowl before I head to the great starship in the sky.

So, a high winning percentage in the playoffs but no Super Bowl win is like getting a piece of cake with no icing. The cake is nice, haven't had any in years, but I'd like a little icing as well.
 
Jackie Chiles said:
...what kind of success does the team need to have within a 5 year period for you to be happy with where we are at?
Click to expand...


Ummm... the whole point of all this moaning is that 5 years is too much time to make any organization win the Super Bowl. So with that being the precedent, I think any new coach(es) should be on maximum 2 year contracts otherwise we'll end with everyone's panties in a twist again. Instead of being Denver East, we'll be more like Dallas South, but without all that worrisome playoff business. Hell, maybe we could even recruit TO, I think we're the only team he hasn't played for now?

PS - Throw out Andy Reid and Holmgren. They script their plays :rolleyes:
 
Surreal McCoy said:
Ummm... the whole point of all this moaning is that 5 years is too much time to make any organization win the Super Bowl. So with that being the precedent, I think any new coach(es) should be on maximum 2 year contracts otherwise we'll end with everyone's panties in a twist again. Instead of being Denver East, we'll be more like Dallas South, but without all that worrisome playoff business. Hell, maybe we could even recruit TO, I think we're the only team he hasn't played for now?

PS - Throw out Andy Reid and Holmgren. They script their plays :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Plenty of other threads to clutter with your sarcasm hoss.
 
Okay so, Capers led our team to ****, Kubiak led us to being respectable and within a few plays each year (literally) of making the playoffs/winning the division. The next staff needs to shore up our shortcomings, change the culture, and get at least 10 wins a year. Once in the playoffs , we'll judge then. If we repeatedly get into the playoffs and get bounced every year in the same fashion, then we'll have to get someone else to push us over the next hill to the Super Bowl.

If we're gonna be good, let's be good. If we're gonna suck, let's suck. It kills me every year over the last few years that a few plays caused this team to go 8-8 or 9-7 instead of 11-5, or even 12-4.
 
The only way to win the Superbowl is to be a playoff team, period. We need to get to the playoffs, first.

While I would love to have a team win the superbowl, I would certainly settle for a perennial contender like the Stros of the 90s.
 
TheMatrix31 said:
Okay so, Capers led our team to ****, Kubiak led us to being respectable and within a few plays each year (literally) of making the playoffs/winning the division. The next staff needs to shore up our shortcomings, change the culture, and get at least 10 wins a year. Once in the playoffs , we'll judge then. If we repeatedly get into the playoffs and get bounced every year in the same fashion, then we'll have to get someone else to push us over the next hill to the Super Bowl.

If we're gonna be good, let's be good. If we're gonna suck, let's suck. It kills me every year over the last few years that a few plays caused this team to go 8-8 or 9-7 instead of 11-5, or even 12-4.
Click to expand...

Was it really Capers? Or was it Casserly's picks/trades/free agents that caused the debacle?
 
Thorn said:
I want to see a Houston NFL team win a Super Bowl before I head to the great starship in the sky.

So, a high winning percentage in the playoffs but no Super Bowl win is like getting a piece of cake with no icing. The cake is nice, haven't had any in years, but I'd like a little icing as well.
Click to expand...

I'm with you Thorn. I too getting up there as well. (Not dirty but old)
 
U forgot one and he wants to come here according to NFL network

Bill Cower

W-149
L-90
W%-62.3
Superbowl -1
conference championships 2
division championships 9

BIG step up from Kubes a proven coach that wants to come here ? why not fire kubes yesterday and grab him
 
Thorn said:
I want to see a Houston NFL team win a Super Bowl before I head to the great starship in the sky.

So, a high winning percentage in the playoffs but no Super Bowl win is like getting a piece of cake with no icing. The cake is nice, haven't had any in years, but I'd like a little icing as well.
Click to expand...

I'll take the cake any day. Icing is just that, icing :)
 
Jackie Chiles said:
Lets assume, for the purpose of this exercise that Kubiak is fired at the end of the year. Now without getting into specifics with regard to all the different directions we could take as far as the head coach and his staff, what kind of success does the team need to have within a 5 year period for you to be happy with where we are at?

A quick history lesson:

Dom Capers: 18 wins, 46 losses .281 winning % No playoff appearances no playoff wins: We pretty much sucked.

Gary Kubiak: currently 35 wins, 39 losses .473 winning % No playoff appearances no playoff wins: Actually quite an improvement over Dom but it doesn't really feel like it and even if it did, its still not good enough.

For reference, here are a couple guys at the high end of the scale that we could hope to aspire to but would have a very difficult time approaching their level of success:

Andy Reid: 115 wins, 70 losses .622 winning % 8 playoff appearances including a Super Bowl, 10 playoff wins and 8 losses.

And the gold standard;

Bill Belichick(with NE): 121 wins, 50 losses .708 winning % 7 playoff appearances, 3 Super Bowl wins and 1 loss, 14 playoff wins and 4 losses.

We would have to hit the coaching lottery to have similar success so its not impossible but shouldn't be expected. So what can we expect? I'll throw out another case that has been mentioned on these boards for quite some time and its a guy I think would be the absolute best case scenario:

Mike Smith: 29 wins, 14 losses .674 winning % 1 playoff appearance, 0 playoff wins.

Probably too much to hope for but not impossible. I do, however, have a track record that I think we could be able to reproduce. That is the level of success that Mike Holmgren had while he was in Seattle.

Mike Holmgren, Seattle: 86 wins, 74 losses .541 winning % 6 playoff appearances, 1 Super Bowl loss, 4 playoff wins, 6 losses

Why Holmgren you ask? It all starts with the QB. Schaub has reminded me of Hasselbeck since the day he got here. In GB with Favre Holmgren posted a .670 winning %. He couldn't repeat that without old faithful but I think Schaub compares favorably to what he was working with in Seattle. The high end coaches I listed for reference also had/have some all-time greats at QB and Matt Ryan could be one before its all said and done. Therefore:

Mystery Texans future coach: about a 55% winning percentage in the regular season with a couple playoff appearances and at least 1 win within the first 5 years. I think I could live with that, what would it take for you? Am I being too lenient or are my expectations too lofty for an organization that hasn't proved anything so far?
Click to expand...

I am not trying to be a smartass here at all. But for some reason when I read the last paragraph of your post the name Brian Billick came to mind. I personally never liked him as a coach and do not want him here, so no idea why his name came to mind. But since the name popped in my head, I went and checked and he has a career winning percentage of .556, his career playoff record is 5-3, and he has won a Super Bowl. Like I said, not trying to be a smartass. Whether Kubiak stays or goes or whatever, McNair needs to realize the time is now, our next coach needs to be a proven leader and a proven winner. I have no idea why I even posted this, but I have been up since 4 unable to sleep, so maybe I am a little delirious....:hides:
 
texan279 said:
I am not trying to be a smartass here at all. But for some reason when I read the last paragraph of your post the name Brian Billick came to mind. I personally never liked him as a coach and do not want him here, so no idea why his name came to mind. But since the name popped in my head, I went and checked and he has a career winning percentage of .556, his career playoff record is 5-3, and he has won a Super Bowl. Like I said, not trying to be a smartass. Whether Kubiak stays or goes or whatever, McNair needs to realize the time is now, our next coach needs to be a proven leader and a proven winner. I have no idea why I even posted this, but I have been up since 4 unable to sleep, so maybe I am a little delirious....:hides:
Click to expand...

Even though I posted specific coach's records I'm not lobbying for them to become the coach and if they did I certainly wouldn't expect the exact winning percentage they put up previously. I don't expect Mike Holmgren to be our next head coach, I want our next head coach to have similar success to what Holmgren had while he was in Seattle. As far as Billick, I don't really want him to be our next HC but if our next HC could do for us what Billick did in Baltimore I would be very pleased.
 
97roc said:
Was it really Capers? Or was it Casserly's picks/trades/free agents that caused the debacle?
Click to expand...

Both. Capers most definitely was part of the carnal assault on the pooch. He was a defensive guru who did little to nothing with the D. Look at how Green Bay plays when he actually calls the D v. how we played under Fangio. Instead of sticking to what he knew he stuck his nose into the O that he didn't know. Totally bass akwards HC.
 
How many years has Jack del rio had John FOX i think kubes stays IMO depending on how these last games pan out
 
Norg said:
How many years has Jack del rio had John FOX i think kubes stays IMO depending on how these last games pan out
Click to expand...

This is Del Rio's 8th season, Fox's 9th season. Funny thing is both Fox and Del Rio have finished a season above .500 three times each. Unless we get totally embarassed in the remaining games, I do not see McNair making a change in head coach. Just my opinion.
 
I am willing to give the next guy 3-4 years. Two years isnt enough and if we arent, dare I say, turning the corner by year four, then its time to move on.

I believe we are a couple of minor additions on defense and a total over haul on defensive game plans go. Not saying we need to change our scheme, just the signal caller.......which will come with a new HC/coaching staff.

I believe we have all the talent to be a playoff team right now. We played with the top teams in the NFL; Philly, San Diego, Indy, NYJ but coaching lost it for us. Maybe not necessarily in those games but the coaching in the off-season, film room, practice, etc, etc.

New coach and Co. get 3-4 years from me. Maybe go anywhere from 8-8 to 10-6 the first year. 9-7 to 11-5 year two while missing the playoffs in first two then a minimum of 11-5 with a playoff birth in the third year. Year four would demand a playoff win or hes canned.

Maybe Im a little leniant in the first couple of years but I truly believe our defense has at least another year before being in the top half of the NFL in team defense.

Just a little commentary from an armchair quarterback.

:spin:
 
2slik4u said:
I am willing to give the next guy 3-4 years. Two years isnt enough and if we arent, dare I say, turning the corner by year four, then its time to move on.

I believe we are a couple of minor additions on defense and a total over haul on defensive game plans go. Not saying we need to change our scheme, just the signal caller.......which will come with a new HC/coaching staff.

I believe we have all the talent to be a playoff team right now. We played with the top teams in the NFL; Philly, San Diego, Indy, NYJ but coaching lost it for us. Maybe not necessarily in those games but the coaching in the off-season, film room, practice, etc, etc.

New coach and Co. get 3-4 years from me. Maybe go anywhere from 8-8 to 10-6 the first year. 9-7 to 11-5 year two while missing the playoffs in first two then a minimum of 11-5 with a playoff birth in the third year. Year four would demand a playoff win or hes canned.

Maybe Im a little leniant in the first couple of years but I truly believe our defense has at least another year before being in the top half of the NFL in team defense.

Just a little commentary from an armchair quarterback.

:spin:
Click to expand...

Hmm. Atlanta's coach was hired in 2008, and they are staring at a Super Bowl. Tampa's coach was hired in 2009, and they are in the thick of the playoff hunt.
 
houstonspartan said:
Hmm. Atlanta's coach was hired in 2008, and they are staring at a Super Bowl. Tampa's coach was hired in 2009, and they are in the thick of the playoff hunt.
Click to expand...

I would be ecstatic if we got that treatment. Atlanta also had 95% of the tools in place with additions of D-rob and Tony G. added. Not to mention Mike Smith is in his third year.

As for TB:

They will not make the playoffs. NO or ATL will win the division with the other making a wild card.

The teams they beat are as follows:

cleveland
carolina (twice)
cincy
St. louis
arizona
san francisco

for a combined record of....drum roll please.....21-51!

on the other hand lets look at who they lost to to see how they compete and matchup against other playoff teams:

pittsburgh
NO
ATL (twice)
Baltimore

for a combined record of 35-11.

As you can see they beat the crap teams and lose to great teams.

Sounds familiar. A team of circumstance. Raheem Morris hasnt proved anything to me. Mike Smith has.....but he also has some of the best talent in the NFL on both sides of the ball. Not taking anything away from him because he has coached his players well. Not to mention he is in his third year.I stand by my statement, two years isnt enough.
 
Doppelganger1 said:
The only way to win the Superbowl is to be a playoff team, period. We need to get to the playoffs, first.

While I would love to have a team win the superbowl, I would certainly settle for a perennial contender like the Stros of the 90s.
Click to expand...

Be careful what you wish for. A superbowl needs to be brought here. Continually making the playoffs and not making anything out of it would be just another 100 threads that people would ***** about......me being one of them. Its essentially the same thing we have now. Unless you win a SB, all the wins in the world dont matter.
 
Jackie Chiles said:
Someone finally pointed it out, thank you comrade.
Click to expand...

The first 5 year plan was actually quite successful. Anyway, back to your point.

There should be no more 5 year plans as it has been proven by this very forum there is no need. Any new coach(es) should be on a one year contract with an option to extend for an additional year should they make playoffs. If they make the playoffs three consecutive seasons and don't win the Super Bowl then wash, rinse, repeat. Again, if the problem is coaching, as everyone says it is, then we should see an instant turn around, a la Saints, in the new coach's first season.
 
Surreal McCoy said:
The first 5 year plan was actually quite successful. Anyway, back to your point.

There should be no more 5 year plans as it has been proven by this very forum there is no need. Any new coach(es) should be on a one year contract with an option to extend for an additional year should they make playoffs. If they make the playoffs three consecutive seasons and don't win the Super Bowl then wash, rinse, repeat. Again, if the problem is coaching, as everyone says it is, then we should see an instant turn around, a la Saints, in the new coach's first season.
Click to expand...

That may be the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. To give a coach/staff one year to make the playoffs in a new organization is crazy. What if we go 11-5 and miss the playoffs? Do we can them? Hell no. If we went that route then we would possibly throw out the opportunity of landing a guy like Cowher, Belichick, Dungy, etc.
 
Surreal McCoy said:
The first 5 year plan was actually quite successful. Anyway, back to your point.

There should be no more 5 year plans as it has been proven by this very forum there is no need. Any new coach(es) should be on a one year contract with an option to extend for an additional year should they make playoffs. If they make the playoffs three consecutive seasons and don't win the Super Bowl then wash, rinse, repeat. Again, if the problem is coaching, as everyone says it is, then we should see an instant turn around, a la Saints, in the new coach's first season.
Click to expand...

The title of this thread is a nod to the old Soviet "5-year plans" that were always popping up. Basically they would set some unrealistic economic goals and all the officials would lie and tell everyone they achieved all their goals when the 5 years was up. Hence the comrade reference. More here:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-Year_Plans_for_the_National_Economy_of_the_Soviet_Union

As far as this thread goes, since I am envisioning a certain level of success that would be acceptable to me there is no call to fire anyone. Hopefully we can stick with the next coach for 10 plus years, but I am focusing on the first 5 years because it is roughly the length we have had each of our previous coaches.

Judging by your comments you are either much more demanding than me (which is ok), or being facetious and would cut off your nose to spite you face. i.e. we take your ridiculous advice and don't make the playoffs in 1 year or actually fire a coach for making the playoffs three years in a row w/o a Super Bowl just so you could tell everyone here I told you so.
 
Jackie Chiles said:
The title of this thread is a nod to the old Soviet "5-year plans" that were always popping up. Basically they would set some unrealistic economic goals and all the officials would lie and tell everyone they achieved all their goals when the 5 years was up. Hence the comrade reference. More here:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-Year_Plans_for_the_National_Economy_of_the_Soviet_Union

As far as this thread goes, since I am envisioning a certain level of success that would be acceptable to me there is no call to fire anyone. Hopefully we can stick with the next coach for 10 plus years, but I am focusing on the first 5 years because it is roughly the length we have had each of our previous coaches.

Judging by your comments you are either much more demanding than me (which is ok), or being facetious and would cut off your nose to spite you face. i.e. we take your ridiculous advice and don't make the playoffs in 1 year or actually fire a coach for making the playoffs three years in a row w/o a Super Bowl just so you could tell everyone here I told you so.
Click to expand...

Yes I'm quite familiar with Russian history, hence the reference to the successful first 5 year plan. Anyway, I digress.

My point was not to be able to say told you so, but many here think we would and should be a playoff team but are held back by woeful coaching. I think it's more than that, but, if it is primarily the coaching, as everyone believes, we'll know in the first year of the new coach being here. Plus, 1 (2 max) year is plenty of time to change your fortunes, just look at all the examples happening today.
 
2slik4u said:
Be careful what you wish for. A superbowl needs to be brought here. Continually making the playoffs and not making anything out of it would be just another 100 threads that people would ***** about......me being one of them. Its essentially the same thing we have now. Unless you win a SB, all the wins in the world dont matter.
Click to expand...

I agree. This is why I care less about whether we win our next games and more about whether we lose them and get rid of Kubiak. That didn't make sense but I know what I mean!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top