Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Why the NFL Draft Is More Awkward Than Ever
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-most-awkward-nfl-draft-ever-1430170388In an era of unprecedented information and technology, you might think that it would be easier than ever for NFL teams to pick the right players in the leagues annual draft, which kicks off Thursday night.
Instead, coaches and team executives say it has never been more challenging.
The problem facing the NFLs coaches, scouts and general managers is that players are changing. From offensive linemen who no longer line up in a three-point stance to defensive players who only know how to defend the spread, the players who are entering the league today arent necessarily trained to do what NFL teams want to do.
A convergence of factorsthe evolution of college and high-school offenses; the increasingly mind-boggling athleticism of players; the popularity of seven-on-seven football leagues (as opposed to the standard 11-on-11) that change the way young players learn skillshave created a new kind of draft that team executives dont quite know what to do with. They may be guessing more than ever.
I think the teams that figure it out the fastest or change the fastest will reap the benefits of whats out there, Cleveland Browns general manager Ray Farmer said.
The heart of the matter is that teams havent yet figured out which positions are valuable in 2015. As college offenses rely increasingly on the spreada style of attack that spreads three, or four or five receivers across the fieldthe draft is once again deep at wide receiver.
That is welcome news for teams that missed out on last years receiver class, which is considered the best group of rookie wideouts ever, featuring stars such as the New York Giants Odell Beckham Jr. and the Buffalo Bills Sammy Watkins. This year could see as many as five receivers go in the drafts first 20 picks, including West Virginias Kevin White, Alabamas Amari Cooper and Louisvilles DeVante Parker.
But with all of the pass-catching talent available nowadays, wide receiver has become the rare position where a good player can safely be found well after the first round. That could depress the value of the position, although it hasnt happened yet.
When I first got involved in scouting, you could probably go two or three games [and the guy wouldnt catch a pass]. I only caught 25 balls as a senior in college, said Baltimore Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome, who went to Alabama in the 1970s and went on to become a Hall of Fame tight end. But that game is changing, because the college game has changed.
The transformation of the college and high-school game has affected other positions, including ones once thought of as safe picks in the draft, like offensive linemen.
The early struggles of offensive linemen such as the St. Louis Rams Greg Robinson, the No. 2 overall pick last year, and the Jacksonville Jaguars Luke Joeckel, who went second in 2013, have led some talent evaluators to wonder whether college linemen are getting impossible to evaluate. College offenses tend to have wider splits than the pros, meaning linemen are spread farther apart from other linemen in a given formation. College linemen are also now less likely to put their hand in the dirt before a snap, meaning the classic mauler type of lineman who bulldozed opponents is harder to find.
The prospects arent doing NFL concepts on film, said Alan Dandar, a former personnel employee of NFL teams and the creator of Smashdraft.com, a website that calculates the value of draft picks. Its a sneaky ramification of the spread. If a team throws bubble screens, how much stress is that putting on an offensive line?
A further issue confronting NFL teams, Dandar said, is that the proliferation of the spread offense at the college level causes college defenses to change their schemes, too. Because of the widespread popularity in college of the read-option playin which the quarterback decides after the snap whether he will run, hand the ball off or throwcollegiate linebackers and defensive linemen spend much of their time dealing with that. But in the NFL, defending the read option isnt nearly as big a priority.
These developments, draft analysts say, have created a world where teams are increasingly reliant on combine statistics to gauge what a prospect can do.
Thats where people look at measurables, NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell said. They have to say, We think he can do this, but they dont know. Theyll say, Hes really explosive; his three-cone time is great; the drills are great. Its all projections.
To make matters worse for teams, there is a new wrinkle to the guessing game this year. In March, promising San Francisco 49ers rookie linebacker Chris Borland retired after one season, saying the health risks were too much. Teams must now worry about drafting the next player who may unexpectedly quit for health reasons. But teams say it is nearly impossible to decipher who that might be.
Thats just not how it works. Theyre going to tell you what you want to hear, said Oakland Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie. All you can do, he said, is make sure youre thorough.