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Which More Accurate Predictor>>>>>>The NFL Combine or a dart board?

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Hall of Fame
John McGrath: NFL combine an inaccurate tool for measuring football players’ skills

Linebacker Aaron Curry dazzled with his physical skills at the combine, but it didn’t translate to the football field — the No. 4 overall pick by the Seattle Seahawks in 2009 played his final NFL games in 2012.

The NFL Combine begins Tuesday in Indianapolis, where hundreds of draft prospects will be graded on skills they’ll never again put to use.

The broad jump, for instance. Have you ever seen a football player leap several feet from a standing-still start? I haven’t, either. I’ve seen Marshawn Lynch jump into the end zone backward, with one hand on the ball and the other hand surreptitiously occupied, but Lynch’s jumps are usually made on the run.

For that matter, the next time a player runs back and forth between a triangle of cones during a game, it will be the first time. But there’s a three-cone drill at the combine, and those who perform the drill faster than their position peers will be lauded for possessing the agility required to, well, run back and forth between a triangle of cones.

Former Seattle Seahawks linebacker Aaron Curry proved adept at this during the 2009 NFL combine. Curry completed the task in 6.84 seconds, the best time among linebackers. Curry also finished first in the 40-yard dash and the broad jump, and to show he was no three-trick pony, he bench-pressed 225 pounds 25 times and recorded a vertical jump of 37 inches.

Scouts were so busy drooling over the 6-foot-2, 255-pound Curry they needed dental-chair bibs. The Wake Forest product, winner of the Butkus Award as the nation’s top collegiate linebacker, had turned the combine into what amounted to the Aaron Curry fashion show.

NFL Network scouting analyst Mike Mayock called Curry “the safest pick in the draft. He’s done it over time. He’s clean off the field. You’re going to hand him $30 or $40 million and he’s going to put it in the bank and he’s going to go to work.”

Mayock’s prediction was somewhat accurate: The Seahawks drafted Curry at No. 4 overall and guaranteed him $34 million, then the most money assured to a rookie who wasn’t a quarterback. But the safest pick in the draft? Uh, no, not quite. The athletic talents Curry revealed without pads, while performing exercises unrelated to football, didn’t carry over into a disappointing career recalled for its brevity.

Expected to retire as a candidate for a Hall of Fame bust, Curry retired merely as a famous bust. In five seasons — three spent in Seattle — the rangy linebacker capable of jumping 10.4 feet from a standing start was credited with 5.5 sacks and no interceptions.

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll replaced Curry at weakside linebacker with K.J. Wright, a fourth-round 2011 draft selection whose combine numbers — he ranked among the bottom third in the three-cone drill and the 60-yard shuttle — were not drool-inspiring.

But Wright has a sense for where the ball is and a knack for making a stop when he finds it, linebacker skills much more relevant than mastering some three-cone drill. A year after his five solo tackles helped the Hawks defeat the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 48, Wright had 10 solo tackles against the New England Patriots, whose 28-24 victory was achieved thanks to the MVP performance of quarterback Tom Brady, himself a noted combine flop.

Watching video glimpses of Brady’s 2000 audition in front of NFL scouts, it’s easy to understand why he remained on the board until the sixth round. His 40-yard dash resembles a jog, and his unprepossessing physique suggests an unhappy familiarity with schoolyard bullies.

Brady’s “measureables” in Indianapolis included a 7.20 time in the three-cone drill — it’s possible the custodian told him to turn out the lights and lock the doors when he was finished — and a vertical leap that would’ve turned a jump ball against Meat Loaf into a challenge.

Fifteen years after his combine experience appeared to reduce him to a practice-squad journeyman, Brady has assembled a convincing case as the best quarterback in NFL history.
THE REST OF THE STORY

Is the Combine more of a huge NFL money maker and PR machine than a useful accurate tool in predicting NFL success?
 
Time for the annual Combine Bash. It's a useful tool in a box full of tools. Just like a hammer, it's not the only useful tool.
 
The Combine is a useful tool, that like any other tool, is as useful as it's operator.

Who in their right mind finds more information less useful? You would have to be incompetent or an outright fraud of a talent evaluator to not want to take advantage of a giant talent evaluation. For f*cks sake.
 
Here's my disconnect with the particular article:

Scouts were so busy drooling over the 6-foot-2, 255-pound Curry they needed dental-chair bibs. The Wake Forest product, winner of the Butkus Award as the nation’s top collegiate linebacker, had turned the combine into what amounted to the Aaron Curry fashion show.

NFL Network scouting analyst Mike Mayock called Curry “the safest pick in the draft. He’s done it over time. He’s clean off the field. You’re going to hand him $30 or $40 million and he’s going to put it in the bank and he’s going to go to work.”

Mayock’s prediction was somewhat accurate: The Seahawks drafted Curry at No. 4 overall and guaranteed him $34 million, then the most money assured to a rookie who wasn’t a quarterback. But the safest pick in the draft? Uh, no, not quite. The athletic talents Curry revealed without pads, while performing exercises unrelated to football, didn’t carry over into a disappointing career recalled for its brevity.

The guy didn't get the Butkus award for winning the underwear olympics. He wasn't a nobody from nowhere who wowed only with combine results.

From his Wiki:
As a freshman in 2005 he started 10 of 11 games and was the teams fifth leading tackler with 39. After his great season he was named second team Freshman All-American and ACC All-Freshman Team by the Sporting News. As a sophomore in 2006 he started all 14 games at outside linebacker, finishing second on the team in tackles with 83. Curry's breakout season came as a junior in 2007. During the season he tied the NCAA record for the most interception returns for touchdown in a season by a linebacker with three.[6] He also broke the school record with 226 interception return yards. He finished the season second on the team and 13th in the ACC in tackles with 99, and earned Second team All-ACC honors and second team All-America honors from CollegeSportsReport.com. Curry seriously considered entering the 2008 NFL Draft to provide for his family, but later chose to return.[7]

In his senior season he had 105 tackles, including 16 for a loss, and was the winner of the Butkus Award. Curry was also selected an All-American by ESPN, Pro Football Weekly, and Sports Illustrated.
 
Game tape is THE tool for projecting success.

The Combine is an extremely useful tool for reasons the general public never sees: medicals and team interviews.

There are combinations of Combine measurements that have high correlations with success within certain position groups...

But injury, intelligence, and personality makeup variables throw a wrench in it. Prospects do as much as they can to hide injuries. And most in the NFL are just happy be there.

Veteran scouts have story upon story about guys who had HOF tools and Lay-Z-Boy heart. Watt, Brady... they out-think, out-eat, out-sleep, out-live, out-discipline, out-work the competition.
 
Curry was a great college player. He had a clean injury history with no character red flags. He was a safe pick by pretty much every standard. However, football was not a priority for him in life. Just a way to earn a living. The problem was nobody knew that at the time of the draft.

After his career was over, he openly admitted that as soon as he got that original signing bonus and put it in the bank he was done with football. All he did was show up to work and try not to get injured. He knew that signing bonus would take care of him for the rest of his life as long as he managed his money wisely and didn't suffer a debilitating injury.
 
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