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Week 14 Survivor League help

A

AndyWin

Nguyenning
Well, the same 6 all advanced by picking Cowboys and Patriots last week (too close for comfort in both games).

What started out at over 1,200 is now down to 6 with a pot of over $30,000 winner take all. I get incredibly stressed with every single week.

My thoughts for Week 14:

Ravens at home over Vikings - Baltimore has too much to play more and are in playoff contention and Vikings have nothing to play for. Ravens are also 5-1 at home this season. Ravens defense is top 10... Their offense isn't very strong but Minnesota's defense is ranked 30th overall. Minnesota plays tough and I'm not sure if Cassell will burn me, but it's hard to not choose Ravens here.

Chiefs on the road over Redskins - Washington sucks... Chiefs have lost a couple in a row and need to bounce back. Their defense has looked bad during this losing streak. I don't like that it's on the road and I don't know when RGIII will decide to play well or suck (look at 1st half vs 2nd half in the Giants game).

Steelers home over Miami - too close for comfort...

Texans on the road over Jaguars - just kidding... I can't be choosing teams with nothing to play for.
 
The Ravens seem like a good choice to me.

The Chiefs should definitely beat the slumping Redskins. Andy Reid is very familiar with that team too, so that should help. The reason the KC defense has been bad the last few weeks is due to playing Denver twice, and losing Justin Houston, who was their best pass rusher. He's out a few more weeks, so that really hurts their defense. I don't think that will change the outcome of the Skins game, but it doesn't help.

Steelers/Dolphins is a tough one, I'd stay away.

Same with the Texans/Jags.
 
Dutchrudder said:
Same with the Texans/Jags.
Click to expand...

I'm still alive in a two strike league where you have to pick a road team. My only legit options this week are Houston & Dallas (MNF @ Chicago). Both are basically pick-em games. I'm thinking of rolling the dice on Houston. Chicago could be getting Cutler back for this game and they are a different team with him. No way does Houston lose to Jacksonville twice this year, right?
 
JCTexan said:
I'm still alive in a two strike league where you have to pick a road team. My only legit options this week are Houston & Dallas (MNF @ Chicago). Both are basically pick-em games. I'm thinking of rolling the dice on Houston. Chicago could be getting Cutler back for this game and they are a different team with him. No way does Houston lose to Jacksonville twice this year, right?
Click to expand...


Out of those options, I'd say Houston @ Jacksonville. I think the Bears are pretty good and like you said, with Cutler it could be dangerous. Plus, December in Chicago is Bears weather...

Ugh, I wish this commissioner would let us 6 discuss a chop! We don't have any of each other's contact info though :(
 
JCTexan said:
I'm still alive in a two strike league where you have to pick a road team. My only legit options this week are Houston & Dallas (MNF @ Chicago). Both are basically pick-em games. I'm thinking of rolling the dice on Houston. Chicago could be getting Cutler back for this game and they are a different team with him. No way does Houston lose to Jacksonville twice this year, right?
Click to expand...

If those are your only two options, I would go with Dallas. That MNF game is expected to have terrible weather, most likely snow, so I expect a lot of running from both teams. I think Dallas has a much better run game than Chi with Demarco Murray back, and the Bears defense is 32nd in the league giving up 153 yards per game on the ground. Dallas is 27th giving up 126.7 yards a game, but I like the Cowboys in this one. The Cowboys have been doing much better on the ground since Murray came back, averaging well over 100 yards per game in their last 3.

I simply don't trust the Texans on the road against even Jax. They find ways to lose, and at this point I'm concerned it may be intentional.
 
Dutchrudder said:
If those are your only two options, I would go with Dallas. That MNF game is expected to have terrible weather, most likely snow, so I expect a lot of running from both teams. I think Dallas has a much better run game than Chi with Demarco Murray back, and the Bears defense is 32nd in the league giving up 153 yards per game on the ground. Dallas is 27th giving up 126.7 yards a game, but I like the Cowboys in this one. The Cowboys have been doing much better on the ground since Murray came back, averaging well over 100 yards per game in their last 3.

I simply don't trust the Texans on the road against even Jax. They find ways to lose, and at this point I'm concerned it may be intentional.
Click to expand...

I consider those my only legit options available. I have already picked the Chiefs, Panthers, Giants & Colts, so I'm left with these options:

1: Texans @ Jville. I don't trust the Texans at all, especially on the road.

2. Dallas @ Chicago. Probably my best option. Cutler is questionable and this game looks a lot better if he's not playing.

3. Detroit @ Philadelphia. More of a pick-em game that could easily go either way. I actually like Philly in this game.

4. Seattle @ San Francisco. Possible but do I really want to pick against SF at home? It seems too risky.

5. Miami @ Pittsburgh. Again a pick-em game that I like the home team more.

6. Raiders @ Jets. Home team is the favorite and I don't trust the road team.

7. Bills @ TB. Tampa Bay has won three of their last four and seem to be on a bit of a roll.

8. Rams @ Cardinals. Rams could win but I like Arizona in this game.

9. Vikings @ Ravens. No.

10. Titans @ Denver. No.

11. Browns @ Patriots. No.
 
Dutchrudder said:
If those are your only two options, I would go with Dallas. That MNF game is expected to have terrible weather, most likely snow, so I expect a lot of running from both teams. I think Dallas has a much better run game than Chi with Demarco Murray back, and the Bears defense is 32nd in the league giving up 153 yards per game on the ground. Dallas is 27th giving up 126.7 yards a game, but I like the Cowboys in this one. The Cowboys have been doing much better on the ground since Murray came back, averaging well over 100 yards per game in their last 3.

I simply don't trust the Texans on the road against even Jax. They find ways to lose, and at this point I'm concerned it may be intentional.
Click to expand...


I think the Bears with Forte are much better on the ground than the Cowboys who abandon the run any chance they get! Again, this is Bears weather... Romo likes his nice little dome.

Houston has too much talent to lose to the Jags twice. I really think Houston wins it and obviously think they have a better shot at winning on the road against Jacksonville than Cowboys do on the road against the Bears. Also, I think Marc Trestman is a great coach and will have his guys ready. They're a home team with playoffs to play for.. The Jags are a home team with nothing to play for. Ask yourself - which one is more likely to lose?
 
I really have to wonder if the Texans are losing on purpose. They do nothing at halftime to adjust for the rest of the game, and that leads to this WTF failures each game. I know they will never say it publicly, but I really do think they are tanking to get the #1 pick. If there is one game that they can win this year, it's against Jax, but that is the one game they can't afford to lose because that will likely give up the #1 pick. I'd stay away from them personally.

Now seeing the list JC posted, I'd go with Seattle over SF. Seattle has kicked SFs ass a lot recently, and I expect that to continue. Kaep isn't good enough to beat the Seahawks with his arm, so I expect them to lose.

Dallas/Chi is a tough one, but Chicago is slumping. They might bounce back at home, but I doubt it. Their defense has been in decline for some time now, and they are only being bailed out by their WRs at this point. If it's snowing, I doubt Jeffery and Marshall make a bit impact on the game, which will allow Dallas to clamp down on the run. Same could be said the other way, but whatever. My 2 cents.
 
Dutchrudder said:
I really have to wonder if the Texans are losing on purpose. They do nothing at halftime to adjust for the rest of the game, and that leads to this WTF failures each game. I know they will never say it publicly, but I really do think they are tanking to get the #1 pick. If there is one game that they can win this year, it's against Jax, but that is the one game they can't afford to lose because that will likely give up the #1 pick. I'd stay away from them personally.

Now seeing the list JC posted, I'd go with Seattle over SF. Seattle has kicked SFs ass a lot recently, and I expect that to continue. Kaep isn't good enough to beat the Seahawks with his arm, so I expect them to lose.

Dallas/Chi is a tough one, but Chicago is slumping. They might bounce back at home, but I doubt it. Their defense has been in decline for some time now, and they are only being bailed out by their WRs at this point. If it's snowing, I doubt Jeffery and Marshall make a bit impact on the game, which will allow Dallas to clamp down on the run. Same could be said the other way, but whatever. My 2 cents.
Click to expand...

Considering that Seattle is 11-1 and 5-1 on the road facing a team that they have destroyed the last two times they played, the pick makes sense. San Francisco did beat them last year at home though, but it does seem less risky going with an 11-1 team than it does going with a 2-10 team. I might just end up heeding this advice.
 
AndyWin said:
Well, the same 6 all advanced by picking Cowboys and Patriots last week (too close for comfort in both games).

What started out at over 1,200 is now down to 6 with a pot of over $30,000 winner take all. I get incredibly stressed with every single week.

My thoughts for Week 14:

Ravens at home over Vikings - Baltimore has too much to play more and are in playoff contention and Vikings have nothing to play for. Ravens are also 5-1 at home this season. Ravens defense is top 10... Their offense isn't very strong but Minnesota's defense is ranked 30th overall. Minnesota plays tough and I'm not sure if Cassell will burn me, but it's hard to not choose Ravens here.

Chiefs on the road over Redskins - Washington sucks... Chiefs have lost a couple in a row and need to bounce back. Their defense has looked bad during this losing streak. I don't like that it's on the road and I don't know when RGIII will decide to play well or suck (look at 1st half vs 2nd half in the Giants game).

Steelers home over Miami - too close for comfort...

Texans on the road over Jaguars - just kidding... I can't be choosing teams with nothing to play for.
Click to expand...




I like to gamble but I dont know that I could put up 1300.00 in a pickem league eek. I would be a little stressed too with 30k on the line
 
AndyWin said:
Well, the same 6 all advanced by picking Cowboys and Patriots last week (too close for comfort in both games).

What started out at over 1,200 is now down to 6 with a pot of over $30,000 winner take all. I get incredibly stressed with every single week.

My thoughts for Week 14:

Ravens at home over Vikings - Baltimore has too much to play more and are in playoff contention and Vikings have nothing to play for. Ravens are also 5-1 at home this season. Ravens defense is top 10... Their offense isn't very strong but Minnesota's defense is ranked 30th overall. Minnesota plays tough and I'm not sure if Cassell will burn me, but it's hard to not choose Ravens here.

Chiefs on the road over Redskins - Washington sucks... Chiefs have lost a couple in a row and need to bounce back. Their defense has looked bad during this losing streak. I don't like that it's on the road and I don't know when RGIII will decide to play well or suck (look at 1st half vs 2nd half in the Giants game).

Steelers home over Miami - too close for comfort...

Texans on the road over Jaguars - just kidding... I can't be choosing teams with nothing to play for.
Click to expand...

So what happened with this? Did you pick the Texans? I hope you took the Cowboys, because at least they have a chance to win tonight :)
 
JCTexan said:
I hope he went with the Ravens or Chiefs. They both won.
Click to expand...

I chose the Ravens.... and let me tell you the final 2:07 in that game took years off my life.

FIVE TOUCHDOWNS in the final 2:07????? My heart couldn't take it! So glad they won but bummer the Patriots and Broncos also won haha. No one eliminated this week...
 
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