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We have to lose to be #1

Actually, if we win and tie up with the other 3-win teams, San Fran will get the #5 due to Strength of Schedule. We would end up with the #4 or #3, depending on how Week 17 goes.
 
I don't believe I have outright hoped the Texans would lose a game. This is no different. However, I will not be dissappointed if the Texans end up getting the #1 overall pick in the draft.
 
It is an odd mix of emotions. I'll be glad when this season is over. Someone, give this team and coaching staff an enema!
 
Texan Asylum said:
It is an odd mix of emotions. I'll be glad when this season is over. Someone, give this team and coaching staff an enema!
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Post of the year!!
 
texansfan1974 said:
On 610am John Mcclain said if we win we will have #5 pick. So we need to lose this one.
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McClain doesn't know that because the numbers change weekly and I know he hasn't run the numbers, and it's not quite as straightforward as you might think it is to calculate. I heard John and Lance talking and I think he was saying the Texans could be as low as #5 because if the Texans won over SF, there is a pretty good possibility of 5 teams being tied at 3-13.

It's really too complex to figure out even with only one week left because every week you have to go back and recalculate the opponent win total based on updated win totals for every team that your team has played for the entire season. And when you play a team twice, you have to account for the updated record twice. I was thinking about running some scenarios but the more I thought about it, the uglier it got.

If the Texans lose, none of this will matter anyway.
 
texansfan1974 said:
Go Jets.:tv:
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Yesterdays game between the Bucs and Saints almost produced a Saints
victory, which would have been huge for us because most projections tend to have them with the weakest SOS and they may have therefor the best chance of #1 if we win this coming Sunday. As it is now, we will probably pick before SF even if beat them Sunday.
 
aj. said:
McClain doesn't know that because the numbers change weekly and I know he hasn't run the numbers, and it's not quite as straightforward as you might think to calculate. I heard him and Lance talking and I think he was saying the Texans could be as low as #5 because if the Texans won over SF, there is a pretty good possibility of 5 teams being tied at 3-13.

It's really too complex to figure out even with only one week left because every week you have to go back and recalculate the opponent win total based on updated win totals for every team that your team has played for the entire season. And when you play a team twice, you have to account for the updated record twice. I was thinking about running some scenarios but the more I thought about it, the uglier it got.

If the Texans lose, none of this will matter anyway.
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Ah, until we beat the Rams yesterday, this was a big topic of discussion on the 49er boards as well. :) The truth of the matter is the it's not that complex, it's time consuming and requires a bit of sensitivity analysis, but not a lot. However, the short of it is that this late in the season, there won't much change as we're 15/16th through the schedule.

Now, if the Texans and all the other 3-12 teams win, save the 49ers obviously, the Texans will probably pick first. Winning against the 49ers will lower (slightly) their SoS. It would most likely firmly entrench the 49ers with the 2nd pick. Without doing a full sensitivity analysis, the only way it wouldn't happen is if all the non-common opponents of the 49ers lost and those of the Texans won, raising YOUR SoS while lowering ours.

Now, there are a lot of other scenarios. And in any of them, if any of the other 3-12 teams lose and the Texans win, you'll not be drafting 1st because your SoS is much higher than the others.
 
My crackpot math had us in a virtual tie with the Jets for second in SOS going into week 17 (assuming the Jets lose), so it looks like we would get either the second or third pick depending on how that shakes out. The Saints have us/Jets by three games and the Packers and 49ers are also three and four games behind.

I hate to say this, but we're better off losing this game. I hope no one thinks less of me, but we 2006 will be better with a Texans loss.
 
DraconisRex said:
Ah, until we beat the Rams yesterday, this was a big topic of discussion on the 49er boards as well. :) The truth of the matter is the it's not that complex, it's time consuming and requires a bit of sensitivity analysis, but not a lot. However, the short of it is that this late in the season, there won't much change as we're 15/16th through the schedule.

Now, if the Texans and all the other 3-12 teams win, save the 49ers obviously, the Texans will probably pick first. Winning against the 49ers will lower (slightly) their SoS. It would most likely firmly entrench the 49ers with the 2nd pick. Without doing a full sensitivity analysis, the only way it wouldn't happen is if all the non-common opponents of the 49ers lost and those of the Texans won, raising YOUR SoS while lowering ours.

Now, there are a lot of other scenarios. And in any of them, if any of the other 3-12 teams lose and the Texans win, you'll not be drafting 1st because your SoS is much higher than the others.
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Not complex at all, just time consuming.

Let's look at one scenario.

If the Texans beat SF and both finish 3-13 AND assuming the following teams win this weekend:

Giants
Colts
Ravens
Bills
Chiefs
Steelers
Bucs
Seahawks
Jags
Bears
Skins
Cowgirls

Then, SF opponents will have won 141 games and Houston opponents will have won 137, giving Houston the SoS advantage over the 9ers in this scenario.

But - getting into the uncommon opponent factor - if the Bears lose and something really stupid happens like AZ beats Indy and New Orleans beats Tampa or StL beats Dallas - unlikely I know - then the opponent win count would be the same, but since Hou beat SF in this scenario, SF would get tiebreaker advantage since it lost to Hou.

There's a ton of combinations like that when you start factoring in one or more of the other three teams into it (if they finish 3-13).

Some of the games this weekend are a push in the win column for the SF HOU scenario, e.g., Wash-Philly, KC-Cin, TN-Jax, Balt-Cle.

That's why it will be much easier if the 9ers just win outright on Sunday ;)
 
well anything is possible, in this scenario if the jets beat new england tonight they eliminate themselves from the bowl, the winning % only affect NO, but since they played them both NO stays pat, then the raiders would have to beat the giants on saturday (yea right) the bills beat the jets, pitts burg beats detroit, indy beats arizona, green bay beats seattle, minn beats chicago, NO beats tampa, then if we lost, and then dallas beats the rams, if i did the math right would end up like this.


houston .531

SF .531

then apparently a div or conference tie breaker, not sure how that works, we are 2-4 in our div houston 0-6 in theirs....so longshot would be an understatement. besides i fully expect to beat houston
 
Div or conf tiebreaker wouldn't apply in a SF HOU tie. It would be head to head and SF would win (get the higher pick) because it lost to HOU. A Hou - SF tie in SoS is possible but unlikely because more than one significant upset would have to occur.
 
wait....

if we beat SF, is there a way we could get he #1? cause what if the packers, saints and jets win, then the texans and the 9ers would be the only
3-13 teams and with the SOS of the texans, theyd get the first pick...
 
All I know is I'd never hoped to be so involved with trying to figure out how mathmatically my team is the worst in the league, and therefore entitled to the #1 draft pick.

I know I've said I hope they get it, but that's more a reaction to the desire for something, ANYTHING, positive to come out of this most dismal of seasons. I've been a pro football fan my whole life, and I've never ever been happy to see the season end - until now.
 
I must say that I think it is in the best interest of the team to lose next week. Four or five weeks ago, I would not have said this. But losing just one game will matter little in the grand scheme of things for next year. With all the changes coming to the team, I just don't think this one game will affect the psyche of the team.

Having said that, once I start watching the game, I CAN NOT root for the Texans to lose. I start pulling for them to win no matter what. I just can't pull for my Texans to lose.
 
According to the news report I heard after Saturdays loss. If Houston wins they will drop to #5 in the draft picks. We have to lose to get the #1 overall draft pick. I still don't believe we need a running back. We need help on the offensive line and we could also use one or two big time players on the defensive side.
 
rittenhouserobz said:
I don't believe I have outright hoped the Texans would lose a game. This is no different. However, I will not be dissappointed if the Texans end up getting the #1 overall pick in the draft.
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Zephyr said:
I must say that I think it is in the best interest of the team to lose next week. Four or five weeks ago, I would not have said this. But losing just one game will matter little in the grand scheme of things for next year. With all the changes coming to the team, I just don't think this one game will affect the psyche of the team.

Having said that, once I start watching the game, I CAN NOT root for the Texans to lose. I start pulling for them to win no matter what. I just can't pull for my Texans to lose.
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These two posts pretty much sum up my feelings. Well said, guys. :thumbup

It's a darn shame, but 2-13 can do that to a fan. It's not like we're giving up on them. It's all about the future at this point.

While I'll never actively root for the Texans to lose, here's to maybe hoping Mr. McNair fires the coaching staff 30 minutes before kickoff. ;)
 
aj. said:
but since Hou beat SF in this scenario, SF would get tiebreaker advantage since it lost to Hou.
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Everything you said is pretty much true (even though it's a speculatory post). But the above quote I snatched from you isn't. When it comes to the draft, head 2 head does not matter.......at all. Period, no ifs, ands, or buts. Even if 2 teams in the same division have matching records and one of those teams swept the season series, it still doesn't matter becuase it's strictly off of strength of schedule.

Scenario:

Let's say the 49er's and the Cards are both 2-14 @ seasons end. The Cards 2 wins came from any other 2 teams in the NFL besides the 49er's, and the 49er's 2 wins come from the Cards in their 2 divisional games.

B-4 I go any further let me quickly explain how the schedule is laid out each season to help you better understand:
6 games against divisional opponents (once at your place and once at theirs)
4 games against a whole other division within your own conference (this is a rotating yearly thing)
4 games against a whole other division in the opposite conference (this is a yearly rotating thing)
2 games against opponents within your own conference that do not consist of teams in your own division or the teams in the division that your division is playing against due to the rotating schedule match-up. Then those 2 teams must have come in the same place you did the previous season. Example, if the AFC South is playing the AFC North (rotating thing I spoke of) and the Texans came in 3rd place last season, then these 2 games will be against the 3rd place teams from last season from the AFC West and the AFC East.
That equals a 16 game season.

Whew, and I said I was gonna make it quickly.

Anyhow, the reason for the emphesis on those last 2 games is that they can skew the system making my 49er's v Cards scenario to where even though the Cards lose to the 49er's TWICE, they can still pick after them in the draft if those 2 teams that the 49er's play have a weaker strength of schedule. The reason I chose to use divisional opponents is because they will have a matching SOS up with 14 games but as soon as you factor in those 2 other games it can skew the whole thing.

It STRICTLY goes off of SOS. Head to head does not matter AT ALL.

I did not mean to lecture and the all caps was not me yelling, just stressing my points. Hope this helps.
 
Big B Texan Fan said:
Everything you said is pretty much true (even though it's a speculatory post). But the above quote I snatched from you isn't. When it comes to the draft, head 2 head does not matter.......at all. Period, no ifs, ands, or buts. Even if 2 teams in the same division have matching records and one of those teams swept the season series, it still doesn't matter becuase it's strictly off of strength of schedule.

It STRICTLY goes off of SOS. Head to head does not matter AT ALL.

I did not mean to lecture and the all caps was not me yelling, just stressing my points. Hope this helps.
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For draft positioning, when two teams' SoS is the same, head to head absolutely can be applicable. You may want to review the tiebreaker rules provided at the link below - scroll down to the tiebreaker rules under the list of teams.

http://www.ourlads.com/draftSequence.html

In the event of ties (teams with the same record and the same strength-of-schedule), the first applicable tiebreaker (head-to-head, divisional record, or conference record) will be employed, with the tiebreak loser getting the higher selection in Round One. If there are no applicable tiebreakers (as would be the case with teams from opposite conferences that did not face each other), ties will be broken by coin toss.
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Meaning, when breaking a SoS tie and if two teams from opposite conferences are involved (such as SF and Hou), division and conference record is not applicable. Head to head is applicable if the two teams played each other, which they will. If they don't, it's a coin flip.

Hope that helps.
 
aj. said:
For draft positioning, when two teams' SoS is the same, head to head absolutely can be applicable. You may want to review the tiebreaker rules provided at the link below - scroll down to the tiebreaker rules under the list of teams.

http://www.ourlads.com/draftSequence.html



Meaning, when breaking a SoS tie and if two teams from opposite conferences are involved (such as SF and Hou), division and conference record is not applicable. Head to head is applicable if the two teams played each other, which they will. If they don't, it's a coin flip.

Hope that helps.
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I thought it went straight to coin flip.:confused: My bad.
 
HoustonTexans said:
wait....

if we beat SF, is there a way we could get he #1? cause what if the packers, saints and jets win, then the texans and the 9ers would be the only
3-13 teams and with the SOS of the texans, theyd get the first pick...
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Yes. The Texans have two real rivals for #1 overall, the Saints and the Jets. Contrary to popular belief*, the Texans are leading the Jets, even assuming week 17 win. However, we are badly trailing the Saints and need them to win or we need to pull a strength-of-schedule coup. Key to this coup are two upset games - Detroit over Pitt and Green Bay over Seattle.

* - Popular belief is based on the official current standings which show Houston and NYJ tied in SOS. This is true, but ignores that the Jets MUST lose and the Texans MUST win for the tiebreaker to matter to us. As the Jets would be losing a division game (Buffalo is opponent), this is a guaranteed Texan advantage. Also, the Jets have an additional guaranteed 1-game SOS shift due to the week 17 schedule matching up more of their opponents than the Texans. Finally, the Texans have the conference tiebreak with a 1-11 AFC record (since SF is NFC, this can't change), the Jets currently have a 2-9 AFC record. Conference tiebreak comes in after SOS, but before the coin flip.
 
CenTexNative said:
According to the news report I heard after Saturdays loss. If Houston wins they will drop to #5 in the draft picks. We have to lose to get the #1 overall draft pick. I still don't believe we need a running back. We need help on the offensive line and we could also use one or two big time players on the defensive side.
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This #5 business has been stated by a major Houston sports reporter/expert and is simply incorrect. The math for the Packers to get ahead of us in the strength-of-schedule tiebreak doesn't work. It almost doesn't work for the 49ers either, but is at least possible. Of course, the reporter in question probably didn't look that far into it, he just checked the records and saw a possible 5-way tie at 3-13.

If we win against San Fran, we have:

Outside shot at #1
Likely to get the #2
Might drop to #3
While breaking a mirror at a black cat dance party, we insult a voodoo shaman, we could fall all the way to #4
 
For the 'worst case' scenario (5 way tie at 3-13) I just ran a projection for the Saints using my speculative model. Using this model, the Saints Opp Win total projects to 132, compared to 137 for the Texans and 141 for the 49ers. (Lower number gets the tiebreak)

This model assumes the following teams win next week:

Giants
Indy
Baltimore
Buffalo
Chargers
Carolina
Chiefs
Steelers
Pats
Bucs
Seahawks
Jax
Bears
Skins
Dallas

Like the other projection, the uncertainty in this model is a function of which teams win next week. However, the projected Saints Opp Win total is only affected by the following games:

Giants/Oakland
GB/Seattle
StL/Dallas
Det/Pittsburgh

...the rest of the games are a push or have no impact on the 132 number.

Since the four games shown immediately above have clear favorites, the model (for the Saints) is fairly reliable from a qualitative standpoint.

To make a long story short, I'm starting to fall in line with the projections that have the Saints getting the #1 overall in case of a logjam at 3-13.

I haven't looked at GB or the Jets yet using this model.
 
We could still get Reggie Bush if we were #2 and the Saints are #1. The Saints are going to take Matt Leinart with #1 if they have it. Brooks is gone and they already have one of the best running backs in the league with Deuce McAlister.
 
It will definitley make it more interesting if the Saints control that pick but Lienart may not be worth the #1 overall. In a trade down/competition scenario, the Jets would be the only other team in that top 5 who are looking for a QB.

In fact, I could see the Jets trading up with the Saints to get Bush at #1 with the Saints trading down a few spots and still getting Leinart and another pick or two.

I ran the Jets and Packers through the same model and incorporated their scores below. It's a bit inconsistent with some of the projections I'm seeing but fwiw:

Saints 132
Texans 137
Packers 137
49ers 141
Jets 144

Texans-Packers coin flip for #2 in this model. That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

This is why the pro-Bush crowd needs to root for a Texans loss on Sunday.
 
While I'll never actively root for the Texans to lose, here's to maybe hoping Mr. McNair fires the coaching staff 30 minutes before kickoff.
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If you're secretly rooting for the Texans to lose, I'd say you'd better hope McNair doesn't fire the coaching staff too soon. The coaching staff is one of the biggest reasons they've been losing in the first place....
 
if you want the TExans to lose you should be shot. I wish alot of pain for your traitorous comments. Where you from Dallas or something. Thats something a cowgirls fan would say.
 
royce1054 said:
if you want the TExans to lose you should be shot. I wish alot of pain for your traitorous comments. Where you from Dallas or something. Thats something a cowgirls fan would say.
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Perspective royce, you need to get some.

That or a really clear "Just kidding" sign.
 
aj. said:
In fact, I could see the Jets trading up with the Saints to get Bush at #1 with the Saints trading down a few spots and still getting Leinart and another pick or two.
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If it went, in that scenario, Saints - Texans - Jets, the Saints would be taking a huge gamble trading down. The only player keeping Houston at #2 would be Reggie Bush, and if he's gone to the Jets at #1 then suddenly Houston will be shopping that pick like crazy to anyone QB-hungry. It's true the Packers and Niners aren't likely to take a QB early and dropping past #5 would be pretty extreme, I still don't think NO would want to take that risk. Another QB goes #1 overall if the Saints are in that position. Here's the next question - does anyone see a clearcut #3 once Leinart and Bush are gone?
 
if the Texans lose to the 49er's I'll really be :embarrass even :bag: but the Texans are playing all these games for a reason, its a buisness & from a buisness standpoint management must be replaced :bomb: if we get the 1st pick along with the firings it might be the best thing to happen to the Texans in four years :pigfly:
 
so in reality, Green Bay and San Francisco cannot achieve the #1 pick anyway because if everything goes right for them, their lowest strength of schedule is still higher than New Orleans highest strength of schedule, therefore eliminating them from any talk, right?
 
ledzeppelin269 said:
If it went, in that scenario, Saints - Texans - Jets, the Saints would be taking a huge gamble trading down. The only player keeping Houston at #2 would be Reggie Bush, and if he's gone to the Jets at #1 then suddenly Houston will be shopping that pick like crazy to anyone QB-hungry. It's true the Packers and Niners aren't likely to take a QB early and dropping past #5 would be pretty extreme, I still don't think NO would want to take that risk. Another QB goes #1 overall if the Saints are in that position. Here's the next question - does anyone see a clearcut #3 once Leinart and Bush are gone?
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I agree, the Saints can't afford to pass on Leinart if they have the chance.
 
Hervoyel said:
Perspective royce, you need to get some.

That or a really clear "Just kidding" sign.
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I have perspective. We dont NEED bush. You think we do. What we need is to play are hardest if we win we win. Then we can trade down get xtra picks. Then maybe trade back up. If we end up 4th or 5th then good. We dont have to make a deal we can just select Jimmy Williams so we will have 2 shut down corners. Or Dbrick that would address part of our O[line problem. Or we go Hawk, Greenway to help our LB core esp since we use a 34. Just because we have the #1 pick doesnt mean that player will make us any better. DD is a good running back but he cant do anything with the amount of men in the box. Its you guys that are only looking at 1 thing and need to look at other scenarios. How can you even say that. I am the one trying to open your minds up to other players. Bush wont help us unless we upgrade our O-line in FA's. I think you guys need to look at what going on. Even if we get a TE then that would help DD out because we have 3 TE now to do the job of 1.
 
royce1054 said:
if you want the TExans to lose you should be shot. I wish alot of pain for your traitorous comments. Where you from Dallas or something. Thats something a cowgirls fan would say.
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Yep, loads of perspective.
 
royce1054 said:
I have perspective. We dont NEED bush. You think we do. What we need is to play are hardest if we win we win. Then we can trade down get xtra picks. Then maybe trade back up. If we end up 4th or 5th then good. We dont have to make a deal we can just select Jimmy Williams so we will have 2 shut down corners. Or Dbrick that would address part of our O[line problem. Or we go Hawk, Greenway to help our LB core esp since we use a 34. Just because we have the #1 pick doesnt mean that player will make us any better. DD is a good running back but he cant do anything with the amount of men in the box. Its you guys that are only looking at 1 thing and need to look at other scenarios. How can you even say that. I am the one trying to open your minds up to other players. Bush wont help us unless we upgrade our O-line in FA's. I think you guys need to look at what going on. Even if we get a TE then that would help DD out because we have 3 TE now to do the job of 1.
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Even if you believe that Royce you can't deny the great advantage that the number one pick gives us. So you don't think we need Bush, fine. We can trade that number one pick and get an extra second or third round selection (and probably another pick next year) in addition to having a pick around 4-6 (which is where we would be if we win). Most NFL teams expect players from the top three rounds to compete for starting positions. That would give us five picks in the first three rounds (counting the third rounder we got from Dallas for Henson) to address needs on offense and defense. So, no, it's not necessarily about Bush. It's about having the kind of leverage that a Bush affords us. I hate the Cowboys and have been a Houston NFL fan for over twenty years. We are better off losing.
 
barzilla said:
Even if you believe that Royce you can't deny the great advantage that the number one pick gives us. So you don't think we need Bush, fine. We can trade that number one pick and get an extra second or third round selection (and probably another pick next year) in addition to having a pick around 4-6 (which is where we would be if we win). Most NFL teams expect players from the top three rounds to compete for starting positions. That would give us five picks in the first three rounds (counting the third rounder we got from Dallas for Henson) to address needs on offense and defense. So, no, it's not necessarily about Bush. It's about having the kind of leverage that a Bush affords us. I hate the Cowboys and have been a Houston NFL fan for over twenty years. We are better off losing.
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I understand why many people want the #1 pick, whether it be to draft Bush or gain extra draft picks by trading down. I for one would love to see us get as many draft picks as possible, assuming we would use them intelligently. However, I do not feel we are better off losing this game, and as always I will be rooting for our Texans and will probably be in a bit of a pissed off mood for a day or two if we do lose, but I'll get over it, enjoy four weeks of NFL playoffs and look forward to the offseason in which we will be in a position to drastically improve our team for the future. If we win, then I'll be in a much better mood early next week, and likewise I'll enjoy four weeks of the playoffs and look forward to the offseason in which we will still have a top 5 pick to either trade down a little bit or else use as the cornerstone of improvements for our team and hope that we use the draft picks we do have and free agency in an intelligent manner and that next year we'll be a competitive force in the AFC South again and be making a push for the playoffs in either 2006 or 2007. I for one would prefer we win this game and not be labeled as the worst team in the NFL (I've heard enough jokes the past couple months on all the sports shows and talk shows and don't want to put up with another 8 months of it), even if it means missing out on a couple 2nd and 3rd round picks that we could have added from trading down out of the #1 spot. To me missing out on a couple 2nd and 3rd round picks in this scenario would result in us having to be a little more intelligent in our free agency moves and picking up proven, veteran NFL players (I think we need veteran leadership and 8 rookies from the draft more than 12 rookies from the draft). So here's hoping that the we win in San Francisco this week (I know it is a very winnable game and I expect us to win), and regardless of what happens that we have a successful offseason and start rebuilding this team around the young, talented stars that we have in Carr, Davis, Johnson, Mathis, and Robinson and bring in a coaching staff that will do a better job finding talent in the future and using and developing the talent that we do have.
 
Man, these are some good posts but I don't believe another win will improve our image any more just as well as another loss will diminish it any more either. One thing is for sure, the feelings we have with either a win or loss will soon fade with all the other win/loss feelings that we've all experienced this season and the new feelings of optimism will replace them once Draft day and pre-season time comes around. That's what's cool about sports, once the season is over with, we all start over again. Let's hope the decisions made are wiser than the ones made in the recent and distant past.
 
MorKnolle,

I appreciate your point of view. I've been happy with the progress the team has made so far. I've been a Houston fan for years and it pains me to come to that conclusion. I have to agree with Asylum that we will be mocked no matter what.
 
Texas_Thrill said:
All I can say is....SUNDAY CAN'T GET HERE FAST ENOUGH!!!! This nonsense is more than I can take at this point.

:crazy:
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No kidding, I'll be glad when this is over and everyone can finally cut this "lose the game on purpose" crap.
 
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