The Harvin Effect

[Playoffs]

The Harvin Effect

Team Year Yards-w/Harvin Yards-w/o Harvin Points-w/Harvin Points-w/o Harvin
.
MIN 2012       334             340              22.7           25.0
SEA 2014       336             376              26.6           22.9
NYJ 2014       312             320              15.6           17.3

As you can see from the chart, there is very little evidence that Percy Harvin has had any positive effect whatsoever on any offense he has played on, and quite a bit of evidence he has actually had a detrimental effect.

In 2012 Harvin played the first 9 games for the Minnesota Vikings, then went down with a season ending injury. This is the season people point to when they rave about Harvin's potential, claiming he played at an All Pro level or close to it in those first nine games. It was, on a per game basis, Harvin's finest production by a wide margin. The interesting thing here is that after Harvin was hurt, the Minnesota offense actually improved in both yards per game and points per game. So even when Harvin was at his absolute peak there is no evidence he helped Minnesota's offense, and some evidence he in fact hurt Minnesota's offense.

In 2014 Harvin played the first five games with the Seattle Seahawks before being traded to the Jets. Seattle's offense improved from 336 yards per game with Harvin to 376 yards per game without Harvin, a huge 40 yards per game improvement. On the other hand SEA scored less without Harvin, at 22.9 points per game without Harvin compared to 26.6 points per game with Harvin.

With the Jets the offense has declined in both yards per game from 320 without Harvin to 312 with Harvin, and in points per game, from 17.3 without Harvin to 15.6 with Harvin. It should be noted that this offensive decline after Harvin's arrival occurred even though it coincided with a dramatic drop in offensive turnovers and a modest increase in defensive turnovers. This large swing in turnover differential should have by itself produced increased offensive numbers across the board, yet the numbers instead decreased across the board.

The picture that emerges from these three instances where Harvin was present and absent for large chunks of three separate teams' seasons is one of a surprising negative effect that Harvin has on an offense.

(Or, how much influence can one non-QB have over a team?)

I'm taking some liberties here to make a point about what I think the reason is for the above numbers -- Harvin is a locker room/team cancer.

In the run-up to last year’s Super Bowl Harvin got into a fight with then-teammate WR Golden Tate that started in a meeting room and moved into the locker room. Tate, who is now in Detroit, ended up with a black eye. Harvin and WR Doug Baldwin had an altercation before the team’s final preseason game in Oakland. Baldwin ended up with a cut on his chin. In the Seahawks’ 30-23 loss to the Cowboys... Harvin...refused to re-enter the game in the fourth quarter.

More importantly, many reports coming out of Seattle had Harvin actively trying to divide the Seahawks locker room against Super Bowl winning QB Russell Wilson. A source said Harvin “wasn’t a fit” in Seattle.

So how have the Seahawks fared since excising the cancer that is Percy Harvin? Well, removing the week that overlapped the trade the Seahawks, who previously looked destined to miss the playoffs, are 7-1 and well in contention again.

Be careful what kind of character -- or lack thereof -- you bring into your locker room. It can make a difference in Ws and Ls. Harvin is a singular talent in a league full of talent -- but you can have him.

 

[bah007]

I've never seen Harvin as a very good football player. Fantastic athlete, no question. But he's bad at so many of the little things that he really limits what you can do when he is on the field.

He's only useful with the ball in his hands, but he can't run routes and drops too many passes. You can use him in the backfield but he can't go up the middle.

You can pretty much only run screens and verticals with him. I'd rather have a slightly less explosive athlete who is more versatile.

 

[steelbtexan]

I've never seen Harvin as a very good football player. Fantastic athlete, no question. But he's bad at so many of the little things that he really limits what you can do when he is on the field.

He's only useful with the ball in his hands, but he can't run routes and drops too many passes. You can use him in the backfield but he can't go up the middle.

You can pretty much only run screens and verticals with him. I'd rather have a slightly less explosive athlete who is more versatile.

Although I agree with you, Harvin is a weapon that has to be accounted for. He has been a major contributor to a college championship. He also contributed to the Seahawks SB run in the playoffs.

He's a headache with bad ankles and a bad contract. that I wouldn't want on my team though.

 

[thunderkyss]

I've never seen Harvin as a very good football player. Fantastic athlete, no question. But he's bad at so many of the little things that he really limits what you can do when he is on the field.

He's a football player, no doubt about it. A talented play maker.... but he's not a WR.

With all the stuff that you get when you take him into your locker room, I don't know if it's worth investing the time to figure out how you could use him to win.

It would be interesting to see what some of these OCs can do with him... it has been. But I get it. Somethings just aren't worth it.