QBs in Games decided by 7 points or less

[thunderkyss]

This is not my work, I stole it from another poster on another board, but I wanted to get your thoughts on what these stats mean. I know it's just stats, but I found them interesting.

Just trying to look more at Indy's W-L performance I thought I would chart some of the best QBs in the game. I am using 2012-2015 data because passer rating has been steadily rising so older data would not be an apples to apples comparison. Ordinarily I wouldn't include rookie performance because it is a fact the rookie QBs perform worse than veterans on average, but in this case I think it's fair considering Indy's W-L record with Luck as QB.

Drew Brees
W-L record in 0-7 games 16-14
passing in 0-7 games:
844 of 1266 attempts for 9945 yards. 74 TDs, 32 Ints.
99.32 rating
7.76 AY/A
Passing when trailing with less than 4 minutes remaining
94 of 152 for 1026 yards. 8 TDs, 7 Ints
80.13 rating
5.74 AY/A
​

Andrew Luck
W-L record in 0-7 games 20-7
Passing in 0-7 games:
612 of 1090 attempts for 7391 yards. 52 TDs, 26 Ints.
83.1 rating
6.61 Adjusted yards/attempt (for those who don't like passer rating)
Passing when trailing with less than 4 minutes remaining
66 of 124 for 867 yards. 8 TDs, 5 Ints
80.3 rating
6.47 AY/A

Russel Wilson
W-L record in 0-7 games 15-16
passing in 0-7 games:
564 of 907 attempts for 6639 yards. 38 TDs, 22 Ints.
88.3 rating
7.07 AY/A
Passing when trailing with less than 4 minutes remaining
47 of 91 for 496 yards. 5 TDs, 3 Ints
72.4 rating
5.07 AY/A

Aaaron Rodgers
W-L record in 0-7 games 12-9
passing in 0-7 games:
469 of 756 attempts for 5656 yards. 41 TDs, 12 Ints.
96.41 rating
7.85 AY/A
Passing when trailing with less than 4 minutes remaining
36 of 70 for 139 yards. 1 TDs, 2 Ints
63.04 rating
-0.37 AY/A

Tom Brady
W-L record in 0-7 games 19-12*
passing in 0-7 games:
807 of 1335 attempts for 9077 yards. 54 TDs, 23 Ints.
87.09 rating
6.83 AY/A
Passing when trailing with less than 4 minutes remaining
56 of 107 for 625 yards. 3 TDs, 1 Ints
75.48 rating
5.98 AY/A
* A study showed most HOF coaches had above 50% winning record in 0-7 games. Don Shula, being the only one over 60% for his career, at 60.3%. I can't find the stats where they got it from quickly. Belichek has a career win% in 0-7 games of about 65%, going back to pre-Brady days. So some of Brady's W-L record is attributable to coaching not QB

Ben Rothlesbirger
W-L record in 0-7 games 13-15
passing in 0-7 games:
694 of 1058 attempts for 7636 yards. 47 TDs, 20 Ints.
93.75 rating
7.26 AY/A
Passing when trailing with less than 4 minutes remaining
69 of 110 for 886 yards. 10 TDs, 5 Ints
99.28 rating
7.82 AY/A

Peyton Manning
W-L record in 0-7 games 13-7
passing in 0-7 games:
462 of 740 attempts for 5277 yards. 41 TDs, 24 Ints.
88.78 rating
6.77 AY/A
Passing when trailing with less than 4 minutes remaining
27 of 46 for 339 yards. 2 TDs, 3 Ints
69.02 rating
5.31 AY/A
* Note Peyton Manning went 6-1 in 0-7 games in 2015, which most people would say is more a product of the Defense than Peyton's play that year.

Ryan Tannehill
W-L record in 0-7 games 14-15
passing in 0-7 games:
642 of 1015 attempts for 7251 yards. 40 TDs, 20 Ints.
89.5 rating
7.65 AY/A
Passing when trailing with less than 4 minutes remaining
78 of 144 for 936 yards. 4 TDs, 7 Ints
63.5 rating
4.07 AY/A

​

 

[disaacks3]

Roethlisberger is money in close games it seems.

 

[thunderkyss]

What really surprises me is Brady & Manning's numbers when trailing with less than 4 minutes. I thought those guys were money in those situations. But those numbers look, ewwww...

 

[TexansSeminole]

What really surprises me is Brady & Manning's numbers when trailing with less than 4 minutes. I thought those guys were money in those situations. But those numbers look, ewwww...

The key thing to remember there is that they don't often put their teams in a position to be losing, so it's often not their fault that they are in that position.

 

[thunderkyss]

The key thing to remember there is that they don't often put their teams in a position to be losing, so it's often not their fault that they are in that position.

I wasn't talking about a "fault" situation.

I know, watching many games "we" say, "They left too much time on the clock." or "They scored too early." Knowing that Brady or Manning is going to score on that final drive. For as many times as that has happened, I guess we don't recall the many times those two failed to score in that position. Most likely because it wasn't their fault. Someone dropped a sure thing or fumbled the ball or they ran out of time.

 

[bah007]

Those numbers sure make the Luck hype look warranted.

 

[eriadoc]

When you put the game on the QB's shoulders when you're trailing with under four minutes, he has to take chances. Those chances lead to poorer results than normal.

The stat that stood out to me:

Drew Brees
W-L record in 0-7 games 16-14
passing in 0-7 games:
844 of 1266 attempts for 9945 yards. 74 TDs, 32 Ints.
99.32 rating
7.76 AY/A

The Saints really have put some deficient teams around Brees. Whenever I hear people talking about how a QB solves all our problems, I just think about Brees and Rivers. Those guys are definitely great and good QBs, respectively, and their teams suck quite often. Brees is clearly tearing it up, and yet has a 16-14 record in 0-7 games. In 90% of those games, NO has the best QB in that matchup. Or had, I guess. He is at the end of his career now, but man that guy was good.