Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Peter King MMQB Mock
Of all the years I haven’t known anything entering the draft, this is really the year I don’t know anything. I texted congratulations to a general manager with a top-10 pick Sunday, saying he deserved praise because no one around the league knew what he was doing at his pick.
“Ha!’’ this GM texted back. “Neither do we”
There’s another team that is practicing intentional misdirection right now. By that I mean this team knows some of its coaches and front-office officials talk to people around the league, and some of the employees have been told it wouldn’t be such a terrible things if you left the impression we might take so-and-so, or this-and-that. Earnestly. That’s why it’s so dangerous to trust everything you hear at this time of year. You’re best to go with your gut feeling, judging by what teams need.
More than ever this year, my strategy is to get as many first-round picks as possible correct. I won’t have many direct hits-that’s a guarantee. But if I do well, say 27 or 28 first-round picks actually getting picked in the round, I’ll consider it a success.
1. *Houston: Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
While everyone talks about the immense athleticism of Jadeveon Clowney, let’s point this out: Mack’s 40 time at his Pro Day was 4.53 seconds. Clowney’s was 4.53 seconds. Mack vertical-jumped 40 inches, Clowney 37.5. GM Rick Smith must ignore the heat for bypassing Clowney.
2. St. Louis: Greg Robinson, T, Auburn
3. Jacksonville: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
All along I’ve thought it’d be Watkins or Mack here. One GM told me, “Take the safest guy here. David Caldwell will go safe.” Nobody truly is a safe pick in the NFL, but in the Watkins-versus-Clowney game, Watkins seems safer to me. And talk about a need pick.
4. Atlanta: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, S. Carolina
(Acquired from Cleveland for first- and third-round picks.)
I wouldn’t be surprised if Mack was higher-rated by the Falcons, but with Clowney still there at such a vital position of need, it’s worth the risk to jump up and ensure the Raiders don’t pick him.
5. Oakland: Jake Matthews, T, Texas A&M
6. Cleveland: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
(Acquired from Atlanta, with a third-round pick, in the trade-down from 4 to 6.)
7. Tampa Bay: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
Wow. Three players in a row from A&M. Imagine that. If the Bucs do this, Manziel gets to learn for at least half the season behind Josh McCown (a very good player-coach), and the Bucs might be able to turn Mike Glennon into a late day-two pick.
8. Minnesota: Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Not buying the Blake Bortles buzz here, as much sense as it makes. The Vikings just have too many quarterbacks rated too closely, and they know they can get one with the 40th pick. Donald has some freakish athletic traits. Not quite John Randle, but the man is quick and can get to the passer.
9. *Buffalo: Taylor Lewan, T, Michigan
10. Detroit: Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
11. Tennessee: Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
12. N.Y. Giants: Zack Martin, T-G-C, Notre Dame
13. *St. Louis: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Mich. St.
14. Chicago: Calvin Pryor, SS, Louisville
15. Philadelphia: Odell Beckham, WR-KR, LSU
(Acquired from Pittsburgh for first- and second-round picks.)
16. Dallas: Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State
Defensive coaches breathe a big sigh that Manziel’s off the board, because they know Jerry Jones was smitten with him. Jernigan will be day-one help for the league’s 30th-ranked run defense from last year. Not a giant, but a good run player because he plays with strong leverage.
17. Baltimore: Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
18. N.Y. Jets: Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
19. Miami: Cyrus Kouandjio, T, Alabama
20. Arizona: Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State
I just get the feeling that GM Steve Keim looks at his draft board here and thinks, “Well, Ted Thompson took Aaron Rodgers when it wasn’t a crying need-and maybe Carson Palmer will give us two more solid years. But Carr’s too good, and too high on our board, to pass up.”
21. Green Bay: C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama
22. Pittsburgh: Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
(Acquired from Philadelphia in the trade-down from 15 to 22.)
23. *Kansas City: Marqise Lee, WR, USC
24. Cincinnati: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
25. San Diego: Jason Verrett, CB, TCU
26. Cleveland: Blake Bortles, QB, Central Fla.
The crash-and-burn that was Bortles’ night in the draft green room ends as Ray Farmer wins his game of chicken with the rest of the league. Can this happen? I am dubious, but I do think a very good player or two will fall precipitously, and as I made my calls in the past few days, I couldn’t find a Bortles lover. One may be in hiding. We’ll see.
27. New Orleans: Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State
28. Carolina: Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt
29. *New England: Stephon Tuitt, DL, Notre Dame
30. *San Francisco: Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana
The 49ers lack speed outside, and that’s why I think it’s more likely they vault way up using their treasure trove of picks (56, 61, 77, 94, to name the next four) than it is that they’d stay put. But if they don’t find a partner, Latimer and his 4.4 speed could be a good compliment to receiving-game staples Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis.
31. Denver: Ra’shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
32. Cleveland: Xavier Su’a-Filo, G, UCLA
(Acquired in trade with Seattle for a second- and low fourth-round pick.)
