Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

[Playoffs]

Peshek: Top 4 WR Metrics

Much will be written about the talent and depth in this year’s wide receiver draft class; it’ll be one of those truisms that gets passed around non-stop. Just looking at the stats of the top tier of WRs shows us that it isn’t just an empty platitude, but rather a statement that has a lot of merit. On average, this year’s class of WRs gained more yards after the catch, dropped less balls, and achieved production utilizing a much wider array of talents. I’ll expand on those stats in the piece, but it’s important to note that these stats won’t predict which WR will be better, but explain their production and complement film study.

Where Did They Catch the Ball?

The table below represents the percentage of catches in each zone, it is color-coded so that an above-average number of receptions is greener and a below-average number is redder.

- Sammy Watkins’ receptions stick out like...

- The most normalized reception chart belongs to Mike Evans...

- Like Evans, 25% of Benjamin’s...

- Lee’s receptions are the most stunning, as only...

What Did They Do After They Caught It?

...

How Did they Catch the Ball?

The chart below represents the final break each WR made before catching the ball. The goal isn’t to tell you exactly what routes each WR ran, but the variety of breaks they made as well as how those affected their production. For instance, comebacks typically yield very little YAC (2.5 yards on average) while posts/corner/slants yield high yards after the catch. The chart has factored out screens.

...

How Are Their Hands?

Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR ‘could have caught’ with an acrobatic play. I won’t provide any commentary since it’s pretty self-explanatory.

...

 

[WolverineFan]

My biggest issue with Watkins was always that he was not a true WR. Hopkins was a true WR, but Watkins just ran screens, slants, bubbles, and jet sweeps. That changed this year. He proved to me that he can play WR in the NFL.

I think Lee is the most NFL ready. Evans and Benjamin are both projects. Benjamin has the most potential.

 

[leebigeztx]

My biggest issue with Watkins was always that he was not a true WR. Hopkins was a true WR, but Watkins just ran screens, slants, bubbles, and jet sweeps. That changed this year. He proved to me that he can play WR in the NFL.

I think Lee is the most NFL ready. Evans and Benjamin are both projects. Benjamin has the most potential.

Benjamin is a project,Evans is not. Benjamin is more of a sideline,jump ball guy like hopkins. Evans is more like a dagger route,run after catch,hard to tackle guy like alshon jeffery or brandon marshall. Lee is polished,but injury prone like woods. Watkins is like you said,percy harvin like.

 

[htownfan32]

I dunno how you can look at Evans and not see the second coming of Vincent Jackson, minus the several dumb on-field mistakes (fumble, kicking the challenge flag, etc.)

 

[matts290]

I dunno how you can look at Evans and not see the second coming of Vincent Jackson, minus the several dumb on-field mistakes (fumble, kicking the challenge flag, etc.)

Evans doesn't have the straight line speed Vjax does, their body type is similar but Evans won't be taking the top off of defenses like Jackson can.

 

[_King_]

This is kind of non relevant to me.

Different players in different offenses. Different guys throwing them the ball. Different play calling.

 

[Dutchrudder]

I'd be very surprised if the Texans took a WR in the first 3 rounds. Even with a tradeback in the 1st, I don't think they would target a WR.

 

[htownfan32]

Evans doesn't have the straight line speed Vjax does, their body type is similar but Evans won't be taking the top off of defenses like Jackson can.

True that. Evans isn't a burner, but even when Evans is covered, you can't help but think he's open. He knows how to play the ball in the air.

 

[Playoffs]

I'd be very surprised if the Texans took a WR in the first 3 rounds. Even with a tradeback in the 1st, I don't think they would target a WR.

I might, but we need a Wes Welker on this team no? It would be telling if do pluck a WR from this crop.

 

[WolverineFan]

Benjamin is a project,Evans is not.

I call Evans a project because he's only played WR for 3 years. He's pretty raw at the position. Runs good routes and knows how to use his body, but doesn't seem to understand the nuances of playing WR yet. A guy his size shouldn't struggle against press coverage, and yet, he really struggled against press coverage this year.

 

[Marshall]

I'd be very surprised if the Texans took a WR in the first 3 rounds. Even with a tradeback in the 1st, I don't think they would target a WR.

I would agree unless they trade back with St. Louis, still get Manziel, and pick up 1-13 in the draft and WR is BPA. Unlikely, but a possibility.

 

[mussop]

I would agree unless they trade back with St. Louis, still get Manziel, and pick up 1-13 in the draft and WR is BPA. Unlikely, but a possibility.

Why would the rams trade up?

 

[steelbtexan]

I might, but we need a Wes Welker on this team no? It would be telling if do pluck a WR from this crop.

Ryan Grant from Tulane is the kind of 5-6th rd guy they should be looking at.

Quick/great hands/runs routes well. Good not great speed.

 

[Marshall]

Why would the rams trade up?

Like I said. Unlikely, but you never know.

 

[Playoffs]

A follow on to his original article, some WRs further down the list...

Greg Peshek ‏@NU_Gap

Today's piece didn't mention my favorite stat - that 83% of Odell Beckham's receptions went for a first down

Peshek: WR Metrics 2.0

Read full article here: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46136/349/peshek-wr-metrics-20


Josh Norris ‏@JoshNorris

WR drop rates:

Landry 2.5%
Evans 4.3%
Watkins 4.5%
Cooks 4.7%
A-Rob 5.4%
ODB 6.45%
J-Matt 7.7%
Kelvin 9.7%
Lee 12.3%

Odell Beckham... OB... O'Brien... OB..... is it kismet?

 

[bah007]

I love Beckham. Best chance to get him is probably at #33 though. Can we risk using that pick on a WR with so many other needs?

 

[Blake]

I love Beckham. Best chance to get him is probably at #33 though. Can we risk using that pick on a WR with so many other needs?

Good question. I think we have more pressing needs and there are alot of good WR's in this class. Maybe we can look at a guy in the 3rd-6th.

Donte Moncrief
Robert Herron
Mike Davis

Lots of good prospects.

 

[Playoffs]

I love Beckham. Best chance to get him is probably at #33 though. Can we risk using that pick on a WR with so many other needs?

I do too, but don't think we can either.

How high will Allen Robinson go?

 

[bah007]

I do too, but don't think we can either.

How high will Allen Robinson go?

I have Beckham #34 and Robinson #41 on my board. But the WR class is so deep that each may drop a little bit as teams try to hold off as long as possible before taking one, knowing that if they miss out they can still get a decent one later.

I think both go in the top 50 for sure.

 

[htownfan32]

I do too, but don't think we can either.

How high will Allen Robinson go?

Late first early second IMO. Could be available at 33, could not be.

 

[WolverineFan]

Good question. I think we have more pressing needs and there are alot of good WR's in this class. Maybe we can look at a guy in the 3rd-6th.

Donte Moncrief
Robert Herron
Mike Davis

Lots of good prospects.

I'm a big fan of Herron. I think he would make a great slot WR in O'Brien's offense.

 

[Jackie Chiles]

I love Beckham. Best chance to get him is probably at #33 though. Can we risk using that pick on a WR with so many other needs?

Was watching some Mettenberger YouTube game-films (haven't watched any LSU lately) and Beckham looked awesome. Like incredible. A lot of times people talk up a player's athleticism and I'll watch some plays and it doesn't really jump out at me but this guy.... If that's not a big time NFL caliber athlete at WR I don't know what is. Looked like he has great hands too, wasn't just catching everything but he was doing it with arms fully extended and in stride. Just snatching it out of the air. Very impressed by this guy.

I agree its not a pressing need but he would be on the short list of guys I like at 33. Guess it depends on who else is available and what we do at 1 but I would rather hit on a WR at that pick than miss on a different position of need. Should be some real nice players there, that is going to be a really exciting pick.

 

[Playoffs]

Clemson WR Sammy Watkins says he is 10 times faster now than he was while playing in college.

"My body was so messed up that I can get 10 times faster. I was using 60 percent of my body, and I have 40 percent more I need to get out," Watkins said. The receiver added he does not want to predict a forty time during his Indianapolis workout, "but I will definitely have the fastest time or one of the two or three fastest at the combine."

 

[Dutchrudder]

Clemson WR Sammy Watkins says he is 10 times faster now than he was while playing in college.

Welcome to the Raiders, Sammy.

 

[kiwitexansfan]

Clemson WR Sammy Watkins says he is 10 times faster now than he was while playing in college.

Clemson WR exaggerates wildly about his speed. 10 TIMES FASTER!!

Expecting a 4.5 now.

 

[Playoffs]

Clemson WR exaggerates wildly about his speed. 10 TIMES FASTER!!

Expecting a 4.5 now.

4.3.

Mike Evans at ~6'5" and ~225 lbs. looking for something in 4.40s.

 

[Playoffs]

Not Peshek, but WR Metrics that may/may not be tailored to an outcome...

Donte Moncrief: Metric AllStar

In the burgeoning war between the “numbers never lie” and “real football is on film” factions of the football community, I find myself rooting for both sides of the struggle.

It is undeniable how important properly constructed statistics can be in expanding our understanding of football. The work that sites like ProFootballFocus and Football Outsiders do is stellar, and it doesn’t take statistical expertise to appreciate their analyses. They are useful regardless of your math skills.

However, assuming one can learn everything about this odd little game by staring at an excel spreadsheet would be a mistake. Players can struggle for a variety of reasons that have little to do with their talent, and conversely players can succeed spectacularly in spite of their relatively poor ability, when put in a position to excel.

It is important to understand, then, as I begin the journey to use Combine numbers alone to identify potential NFL standouts, that I do not feel numbers are the be-all and end-all, but rather one set of tools among many. At least 90% of a player’s evaluation has to be tape based, but a tool that uses Combine information to better identify players whose skills will translate to the next level would be very useful.

So, with that out of the way, let’s get started...
...
"Explosiveness Index"

...
"Adjusted Explosiveness Index"

...

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46395/349/donte-moncrief-metric-allstar

 

[Playoffs]

Drop rate for WRs he's charted...
[IMGwidthsize=150]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bl6v7Y1CYAAATqG.jpg[/IMG]
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bl6v7Y1CYAAATqG.jpg