http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/pag...easons-changed-23-minutes-madness-week-3-2017
New England Patriots 36, Houston Texans 33
Excitement Index: 6.77
The Texans nearly became the first team to win as
underdogs of 13.5 points or more since 2012, when the Cardinals got off to a 2-0 start by upsetting these very same Patriots in Foxborough 20-18. Those Cardinals nearly fumbled the game away by giving up the ball with 1:10 to go, only to be bailed out when
Stephen Gostkowski missed a would-be game-winning 42-yard field goal at the end.
You can make a case that the Texans lost through a self-inflicted mistake of another kind. Facing fourth-and-inches on the Patriots' 18-yard line with 2:24 to go and a two-point lead, coach Bill O'Brien elected to send out kicker
Ka'imi Fairbairn to attempt a 36-yard field goal to go up five, handing the ball back to
Tom Brady while trusting the defense to come up with a stop. The alternative option, of course, would have been to trust
Deshaun Watson to find a half-yard and move the chains, even if it meant the downside of turning the ball over to Brady with the Pats only in need of a field goal to win.
Should the Texans have gone for it? I think so. Their running game had been effective in the second half against a thin Patriots defense; while
Lamar Miller had been stuffed for no gain on the third-and-1 before O'Brien's call, it was the first time in 18 second-half tries that Houston's rushing attack had been stopped for no gain or a loss. The Patriots had just used their two timeouts, but their defense also had faced 36 plays during the second half and looked worse for wear.
A successful conversion wouldn't have won the game for the Texans, but it would have put them well on their way to victory. With 2:28 and one timeout left for the Patriots, a Houston first down would have allowed the Texans to run the clock down to about 32 seconds before attempting a field goal that would have put them up five. Brady still would have had a shot, and the Texans could have missed the field goal, but after
making hyper-conservative decisions as a huge underdog against New England in the playoffs last season, it's disheartening to see O'Brien make the same mistakes in Foxborough yet again.
I think O'Brien should have gone for it, but in terms of how the game actually played out, I don't think his decision cost the Texans the game by any stretch of the imagination. Fairbairn hit the field goal. The Texans' defense eventually cracked, but it took some miraculous conversions and a bit of luck. The Patriots had to convert on one series from a second-and-20 and then, on the next series, from a third-and-18. The pass rush drew one holding penalty and stripsacked Brady later in the drive, only for the Patriots to recover. On the next play, Brady nearly threw a game-ending interception to
Corey Moore, but the Texans safety dropped what would have been his first career pick. Brady then found a leaping
Danny Amendola for
27 yards on third-and-18. On the next play, Moore would be a step slow to get over to the sideline from what looked to be a two-deep look and Brady found
Brandin Cooks for the game-winning touchdown.
As crushing as the loss has to be for the Texans, there are positives to take away from what was by far their best performance of the season. Their pass rush finally woke up; after going sackless through the first two games of the season, their big three of
Jadeveon Clowney,
Whitney Mercilus and
J.J. Watt combined for three sacks, seven tackles for loss and six quarterback knockdowns. It helped that the Patriots were down starting right tackle
Marcus Cannon and didn't appear to have a full-strength
Nate Solder all game on the left side.
Watson also appears to have sprung the Houston offense to life, although the fact that O'Brien opted to start
Tom Savage over Watson after the preseason has to make Texans fans wonder what exactly the former Patriots offensive coordinator was watching. Watson's ability as a runner has forced opposing linebackers to hesitate and created running lanes for what has been a moribund Houston running game under Miller, with
D'Onta Foreman helping shoulder some of the load as both a runner and checkdown receiver.
The rookie first-rounder isn't consistent yet, and turnovers are a concern -- Watson fumbled twice and threw an ugly interception off his back foot before adding another pick on a Hail Mary at the end of the game -- but he offers infinitely more upside compared to Savage. The 35-yard pass Watson completed to
Ryan Griffin across his body from the numbers on one side of the field to the other on second-and-22 was one of the most impressive passes of the day.
As for the Patriots, the concern has to be that several of their stars aren't playing very well this season.
Devin McCourty, the leader of what was supposed to be one of the best secondaries in football, has been a mess and
was victimized for at least one touchdown pass on Sunday. Solder has been out of sorts all season. You have to assume they'll figure things out, given that the Patriots always do over the course of a campaign, but this isn't the Pats team people expected might flirt with a 16-0 record.