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Number19's Mock

Number19

Hall of Fame
#1/3.....DE Jermaine Johnson
#1/13....OG Kenyon Green
#2/37....LB Troy Anderson
#3/68....OG Jamaree Salyer
#3/80....WR Alec Pierce
#4/107...FS Nick Cross
#4/108...CB Alontae Taylor
#5/170...RB Tyrion Davis-Price
#6/205...SS Bubba Bolden
#6/207...CB Josh Thompson


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OK, here we are, week of the draft. Time for final thoughts & mock. This will be a wish list and a plan for how I'd like the draft to go, and not how I project the Texans will draft.

Also, since trades are so up in the air, this will be a no trade mock, with comments.

#1/3....I want one of three top DE's: Hutchinson, Walker or Jermaine Johnson. At least one of these will be at 3, but I'm expecting Hutchinson and Walker to go to the Jags and the Lions. The Texans need to generate more pressure on opposing QB's and we need a weak side prospect opposite Greenard on the strong side. I'd like a trade down, but not out of the top 10. If we trade down, Johnson is the most likely to be available, but if not there, I'd still stay with defense and go with Thibodeaux or Jordan Davis. Possibly Hamilton. Sauce will be off the board, but would be a consideration.

#1/13....I'm still on board with OG Kenyon Green. I want him to anchor our interior OL. Period. If it can be swung, I'd like a trade down, but no more than 5 or 6 spots. I don't think Green makes it out of the 20's.

#2/37....This is another prospect I want, no questions about it - LB Troy Anderson. In Lovie's Tampa 2, the MIKE backer has coverage responsibility for the deep middle zone, as well as run responsibility. He is the captain of the defense and Anderson has the skill set, the speed and the football IQ to be the impact player Lovie needs at the position. Ideally, I'd like the Texans to manage a trade down, but I've seen Anderson ranked between 50 and 100. He's a riser on the boards. If he needs seasoning, he's an upgrade over Wallow at SAM.

#3/68....I want two OG's in this draft and my second is Jamaree Salyer. He's another player I want, period. I've seen him ranked between 50 and 100.

#3/80....Here is where I get Mills some help. WR Alec Pierce is the one I want. I've seen him ranked between 69 and 119. I'd consider trading up. I want Pierce, period.

So I have 5 prospects that I really want: DE Johnson, OG Green, LB Anderson, OG Salyer and WR Pierce; and would do whatever necessary for the best possibility of getting these 5.

At #4/107 and #108....Here is where I address our defensive backfield and there are two pretty good prospects I like mid-draft: FS Nick Cross and CB Alontae Taylor. Hope one or both fall to the top of the 4th.

If Cross and/or Taylor are off the board, then alternatives are CB Tariq Castro-Fields, SS J.T.Woods and SS Tycen Anderson. Also catching my eye, CB Coby Bryant.

#5/170.... Here is where I look at RB's. I'd like to pick one earlier, but other positions are just a higher priority. RB Tyrion Davis-Price may fall to us here. Zamir White is a possibility. Brian Robinson, another possibility. And Pierre Strong.

#6/205.... SS Bubba Bolden
#6/207.... CB Josh Thompson

One final word, I sure would like to get RB James Cook. But I just don't see it happening unless I can get an extra 3rd rounder on a trade down.

(edited to reflect the trade with NE to get #5/170. This actually helps the possibility of my RB falling to the Texans.)
 
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#1/3.....DE Jermaine Johnson
#1/13....OG Kenyon Green
#2/37....LB Troy Anderson
#3/68....OG Jamaree Salyer
#3/80....WR Alec Pierce
#4/107...FS Nick Cross
#4/108...CB Alontae Taylor
#6/183...RB Tyrion Davis-Price
#6/205...SS Bubba Bolden
#6/207...CB Josh Thompson
#7/245...WR Velus Jones

*************************

OK, here we are, week of the draft. Time for final thoughts & mock. This will be a wish list and a plan for how I'd like the draft to go, and not how I project the Texans will draft.

Also, since trades are so up in the air, this will be a no trade mock, with comments.

#1/3....I want one of three top DE's: Hutchinson, Walker or Jermaine Johnson. At least one of these will be at 3, but I'm expecting Hutchinson and Walker to go to the Jags and the Lions. The Texans need to generate more pressure on opposing QB's and we need a weak side prospect opposite Greenard on the strong side. I'd like a trade down, but not out of the top 10. If we trade down, Johnson is the most likely to be available, but if not there, I'd still stay with defense and go with Thibodeaux or Jordan Davis. Possibly Hamilton. Sauce will be off the board, but would be a consideration.

#1/13....I'm still on board with OG Kenyon Green. I want him to anchor our interior OL. Period. If it can be swung, I'd like a trade down, but no more than 5 or 6 spots. I don't think Green makes it out of the 20's.

#2/37....This is another prospect I want, no questions about it - LB Troy Anderson. In Lovie's Tampa 2, the MIKE backer has coverage responsibility for the deep middle zone, as well as run responsibility. He is the captain of the defense and Anderson has the skill set, the speed and the football IQ to be the impact player Lovie needs at the position. Ideally, I'd like the Texans to manage a trade down, but I've seen Anderson ranked between 50 and 100. He's a riser on the boards. If he needs seasoning, he's an upgrade over Wallow at SAM.

#3/68....I want two OG's in this draft and my second is Jamaree Salyer. He's another player I want, period. I've seen him ranked between 50 and 100.

#3/80....Here is where I get Mills some help. WR Alec Pierce is the one I want. I've seen him ranked between 69 and 119. I'd consider trading up. I want Pierce, period.

So I have 5 prospects that I really want: DE Johnson, OG Green, LB Anderson, OG Salyer and WR Pierce; and would do whatever necessary for the best possibility of getting these 5.

At #4/107 and #108....Here is where I address our defensive backfield and there are two pretty good prospects I like mid-draft: FS Nick Cross and CB Alontae Taylor. Hope one or both fall to the top of the 4th.

If Cross and/or Taylor are off the board, then alternatives are CB Tariq Castro-Fields, SS J.T.Woods and SS Tycen Anderson. Also catching my eye, CB Coby Bryant.

We don't have a 5th round selection.

#6/183.... Here is where I look at RB's. I'd like to pick one earlier, but other positions are just a higher priority. RB Tyrion Davis-Price may fall to us here. Zamir White is a possibility. Brian Robinson, another possibility. And Pierre Strong.

#6/205.... SS Bubba Bolden
#6/207.... CB Josh Thompson
#7/245.... WR Velus Jones

One final word, I sure would like to get RB James Cook. But I just don't see it happening unless I can get an extra 3rd rounder on a trade down.

One of my favorite mocks Addresses the Puss rush/OL with 4 of my favorite guys. Adds much needed speed to the team.
 
After learning about Salyer's injury history, I'm replacing him with Darian Kinnard.

#1/3.....DE Jermaine Johnson
#1/13....OG Kenyon Green
#2/37....LB Troy Anderson
#3/68....OG Darian Kinnard
#3/80....WR Alec Pierce
#4/107...FS Nick Cross
#4/108...CB Alontae Taylor
#5/170...RB Tyrion Davis-Price
#6/205...SS Bubba Bolden
#6/207...CB Josh Thompson


*************************


#3/68....I want two OG's in this draft and my second is Darian Kinnard, after learning that Salyer has had two foot injuries, 2019 & 2021, that were likely "Grade I lisfranc", per CnnnD, and he "may not fare too well". Kinnard actually grades higher than Salyer and is the third rated OG behind Green and Zion Johnson. This spot is a reasonable placement.
 
So you're pretty full on the need side of the need vs bpa debate then?

Nothing trying to call you out or anything either, just for convo sake..
 
So you're pretty full on the need side of the need vs bpa debate then?

Nothing trying to call you out or anything either, just for convo sake..
Yes, definitely. I don't believe in BPA because there seldom is such a thing (there are exceptions). You have, what I've called in the past, "bubbles" of players all grading about the same. This past week Caserio mentioned the same thing, calling them "clusters". But if you have, say 10 people, naming BPA for picks 11 through 20, no list will be the same. This year there is no consensus even for who is #1.

I usually select a prospect from a cluster of players, at a position of need, all grading about the same. I also try to select a prospect that I believe is a fit for what the Texans are scheming. And I also eliminate, or lower a player's ranking, for reasons other than their football skills. This year I downgraded Gardner a bit because he seems to be small boned, at a very physical position in Lovie's Tampa 2. I just replaced Salyer on my mock because of his lisfranc injuries.

Troy Anderson is a bit of a projection. The one thing he lacks is experience and I found him to be rated as a "rising top 60 prospect". I did mention I was hoping to have a trade down at #2/37 to bring him closer to his ranking grade. OurLads had this to say: "A team that likes his upside and their ability to develop him could take a shot fairly early". This is where I'm at on Anderson.

But you are right. This year I projected the Texans' top priority to be upgrading the run game, and the top priority to do so was by fixing the IOL. The second and third priorities were to fix the pass defense and the pass rush. My mock definitely reflects this.

Green is another good example to discuss. There is pretty much a consensus he is a blue chip, pro bowl caliber prospect and the top rated OG. About as close as you can get to a can't miss prospect. BUT....OG's are downgraded for being an OG. Green is worthy of a #13 selection. Here again, I'm really hoping to get some value by trading down and taking him about #18 or #19.

I guess the big question for my mock is, is Johnson worthy of the #1/3 pick (I'm not expecting a trade down)?

I think I've rambled enough.
 
Who knows but Green at 13 is the highest I’ve seen him projected in the mocks I’ve seen on TV…which isn’t saying much but I’d rather see Davis there. Caveat: some analyst on tv said yesterday that NC gave him a 99% chance of keeping the 3 and a 50-60% chance of keeping the 13 depending who has come off the board by then
 
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