Lucky's Texans Only Mock Draft

[Lucky]

Texans Only Mock Draft

I think I’ve done a mock draft like this since 2003. I’ll use this draft ranking list from Pro Football Weekly to gauge which players might be available. Why? Because it has nearly 7 rounds of ranked players, and it’s on a free site everyone can view. It will be a “blind draft”, meaning I’m not going to peek down the list to see if I can get a player at a later round. I won’t predict any trades, so I’ll select the Texans picks where they are. I’ll also pick out 4 or 5 undrafted free agents I think might be good signs.

My philosophy regarding the draft will be to find players to support the Texans “star” players. Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Dunta Robinson are the players who must make plays for this team to win. I’ll try to find players that will enable them to succeed. A #2 WR to relax the pressure off of Andre. A left tackle to protect Schaub’s blindside. A big 2 gap defensive tackle who will take up blockers and free Williams and Ryans to make plays. And a physical corner that can take on the bigger wideouts and allow Dunta to play the slot. But, if there is a player too good to pass on, even if he doesn’t meet my criteria, I’ll take him.

First caveat, I’ll only take players I’ve seen in regular season, bowl, or all star games. That’s a drawback. Second, I won’t take players with character issues. That I’m aware of. If you don’t like my picks, don’t worry. I haven’t gotten a single one right in 4 years.

1st Round – Pick #10 – Levi Brown – OT – Penn State (#2 OT selected)
Top player left on my Texans only board, and he fits my criteria. A no brainer pick. Matt Schaub can sleep easier.

3rd Round – Pick #73 – Eric Weddle – FS – Utah (#5 FS selected)
Weddle has actually played some corner for the Utes (and played well against Calvin Johnson). Has good size and speed, and could be a week 1 starter. Wasn’t going FS this soon, but was too high on my board to pass on. Just missed on Jason Hill!

4th Round – Pick #107 – Tim Shaw – OLB – Penn State (#9 OLB selected)
Another Nittany Lion. Not a priority position, but too good to reach over for another spot. Can play either OLB spots, and also saw time at MLB and DE for Penn State. The top prospects on my board were QBs, but I can’t take a QB.


5th Round – Pick #144 - Travarous Bain – CB – Hampton (#17 CB selected)
Former Miami Hurricane sprint star who transferred to Hampton. Among the many prospects from Hampton in this draft, Bain really came on as a senior. Looked very good in the East-West Shrine game here in Houston. More of a long term prospect than an immediate contributor.

6th Round – Pick #183 – Brandon Myles – WR – West Virginia (#23 WR selected)
Angular receiver (6’1” 183 lbs) who looked great in the Senior Bowl practices. As a senior, scored 8 TDs on only 36 receptions for the run-oriented West Virginia offense. Myles has the speed to become the vertical threat the Texans lack.

7th Round – Pick # 218 – Nick Folk – P – Arizona (#3 Punter selected)
2nd in the nation in punting as a senior (44.0 yards), Folk also is a kickoff specialist averaging 64 yards per kickoff. Folk was also the Wildcat’s place kicker, hitting on 75% last season.

Priority Undrafted Free Agents:

Walter Thomas – DT - NW Mississippi CC – OK, I’ve only seen photos of this guy. But at 6’3” 370 lbs, he’s worth bring into camp for a look see. Former Galveston Ball standout should be acclimated to the hot and humid training camps we have in southeast Texas.

Nate Ilaoa – FB – Hawaii – Actually started his career as a WR for the Rainbow. Not a true fullback, but more of a 3rd down RB in a single back offense. At 5’9” 245 lbs, Ilaoa looks like a bowling ball rolling into the secondary. And few DBs care to be the pins.

Gabe Hall – OL – Texas Tech – Signed as a TE out of high school, Hall has played on the Red Raiders offensive line the past 3 years. Needs to add strength to go with his surprising agility. Real potential in a ZBS.

Vincent Marshall – WR/RS – Houston – At 5’7”, Marshall may never be more than a return specialist in the NFL. Track star who scored 29 TDs in his career as a Cougar. Reminiscent of former Texans returner J.J. Moses, but with breakaway speed.

Summary: Not having a 2nd round pick hurt in trying to find a week one starter at CB or WR. It was difficult to find value at DT, as teams continue to reach at that position. Still, getting solid prospects like Weddle and Shaw was nice. They could be immediate starters in the league. Bain and Myles have a ton of potential. And Levi Brown could put to bed of one the major issues this franchise has had since its existence. Overall, I’m pretty happy with it.

 

[Porky]

I like that draft if we stay where we are.

A couple of nits to pick - My guess is Levi is gone, but it's certainly within the realm of possiblity that he is there. I also hear they like Staley very much, so he could be the pick here is Brown is gone.

I also hear Weddle is moving up and is a solid second rounder now, and may even have a slight chance to sneak into round one, so if we could somehow get him in round 3, that would be great value.

My guess is they look for Gattis at safety or Jacoby Jones with that 3rd rounder. I hear they are very high on both.

 

[Lucky]

I also hear Weddle is moving up and is a solid second rounder now, and may even have a slight chance to sneak into round one, so if we could somehow get him in round 3, that would be great value.

My guess is they look for Gattis at safety or Jacoby Jones with that 3rd rounder. I hear they are very high on both.

Weddle could certainly go in the 2nd round. If I had used Scouts.inc's 7 round mock, he would have gone #56 to Denver. But that mock is from a premium site, and not everyone could have seen it. Looking at my list, Gattis would have been a consideration had Weddle not been available.

As far as where Jacoby Jones goes, the 3rd round sounds too high. Jones certainly looks the part, and had a very good Shrine Bowl vs. major college players. But, he never really dominated on the Division II level and ran sub average 40 times at the combine (4.53 & 4.64). I don't live or die by the stopwatch, but when you combine that with Jone's production and level of competition, he looks more like a 5th rounder to me. Having said that, Todd McShay of Scouts.inc has Jones going to the Texans in the 3rd round.

 

[Porky]

Weddle could certainly go in the 2nd round. If I had used Scouts.inc's 7 round mock, he would have gone #56 to Denver. But that mock is from a premium site, and not everyone could have seen it. Looking at my list, Gattis would have been a consideration had Weddle not been available.

As far as where Jacoby Jones goes, the 3rd round sounds too high. Jones certainly looks the part, and had a very good Shrine Bowl vs. major college players. But, he never really dominated on the Division II level and ran sub average 40 times at the combine (4.53 & 4.64). I don't live or die by the stopwatch, but when you combine that with Jone's production and level of competition, he looks more like a 5th rounder to me. Having said that, Todd McShay of Scouts.inc has Jones going to the Texans in the 3rd round.

Good stuff Lucky, thanks. Different teams value guys differently, so one team may have Jones as a 5th rounder, and another could have him as a solid 3rd rounder. I'm sort of with you on the guy. I had him pegged as a 4th rounder, but I won't complain if they take him with the 3rd rounder, as I actually have confidence in this group. If they say he is worth a #3, then that's good enough for me.

As an aside, rumors are swirling now about trading down with Denver, and at least one published report says we want Aaron Ross at #21 if we make that trade. How would your mock change if we made the trade down, and picked up their 2nd and 3rd, which is the reported deal they are working on.

 

[Porky]

I don't want to start another "my mock" thread, so I will place mine right here (hope that is ok lucky, not trying to hijack your thread)

The trade winds are swirling very strongly today, so I am going to go ahead and include a trade with Denver. In exchange for our #10 overall, we get their #21 pick in round one, their second rounder, No. 56 overall, and their third-round pick, No. 86 overall.

This mock is based on a blend of guys I think could fit the system, along with some guys I have heard they are interested in.

#21 overall - Aaron Ross CB - Excellent complimentary corner to pair with Dunta, and can also be an excellent PR, a need position.

2nd round - Ryan Harris LT - Excellent potential in a ZBS scheme. Very good pass blocker. Athletic, and light on his feet. Scouts say he needs to get more of a mean streak, and do better in the run blocking dept but I like him in this system.

3a - Josh Gattis FS - Major help in a major need area. May not be the greatest coverage FS out there, but decent enough, and the Texans have been linked to him.

3b - Jacoby Jones WR - Help for Andre, and should develop into a nice #2. Not my favorite WR in this area, but again, the Texans have been linked to him.

4 - Dan Bazuin DE - Could be this year's Mark Anderson. Situational pass rusher in the Jason Babin mold. Could create havoc opposite Mario on passing downs.

5 - Dan Mozes C - Another guy who I think fits well in a ZBS. Plays with a mean streak and can move. A little undersized, so we will need to see if he can hold up against teams like Jax and Carolina, but I think he has at least some potential to develop into a decent starter in a system like ours.

6 - Sam Olajubutu OLB - His size/speed will cause him to drop like a rock, but he is one of these guys with great instincts and like a coach on the field type. Probably never a starter, but I could see him as a good backup and ST standout.

7 - Sean Douglas P - We need to find a replacement for Stanley, and this guy has a very strong leg, but is somewhat inconsistent. Worth a flyer in round 7, and may unseat Stanley.

 

[Lucky]

As an aside, rumors are swirling now about trading down with Denver, and at least one published report says we want Aaron Ross at #21 if we make that trade. How would your mock change if we made the trade down, and picked up their 2nd and 3rd, which is the reported deal they are working on.

At #21, Dwayne Jarrett and Reggie Nelson would sit at the top my board. I can't forget how Jarrett sliced and diced a Longhorn secondary in the '06 BCS championship. A secondary that included current and future NFL DBs such as Michael Huff, Cedric Griffin, Michael Griffin, Tarrell Brown, and Aaron Ross. I'm not sure when guys like Griffin and Ross became better football players than Jarrett.

I like Nelson, too. He could become a Pro Bowl safety in a few years. And safetys are becoming more valuable in the league. Nelson could could help the defense in a big way, but so could a guy like Jarrett by putting points on the board. I'd have to go with Jarrett at #21.

There's no question that Aaron Ross made a ton of big plays last season. He certainly looks the part of what the Texans should be targeting as a corner: good size, quickness, recovery speed. Combine that with the fact that Ross is a good punt returner, and what's not to like? Well for one, last season was Ross' first as a starter. He's a late bloomer. Two, the Longhorns were carved up by some teams like Tech, K-State, & Iowa late in the season. How could a team with such talent in the secondary perform so poorly against teams with average to slightly above average ability? I just don't think Ross has shown the consistency over the course of his career or the course of the season to be selected over players who have performed at a consistent level.

Looking at the 2nd round with pick #56, Tennessee CB Jonathan Wade has value. Wade was a track star who probably needed spring football to maximize his ability. As far as speed and quickness, Wade takes a backseat to no corner in this draft. But, Wade needs more experience and needs to become more physical. Which is why he's still around late in the 2nd round.

With the extra 3rd pick at #86, any offensive tackle would be a project. So, I'd probably look for a 2 gap DT who can play on run downs, like Paul Soliai out of Utah. A bit of a reach, but that's what it takes to get a DT who can help a team a bit.

A result of the trade, there really is no shot of picking up a LT who could start right away. If Brown is gone, as you believe, then this trade makes sense. Otherwise, you have to hope that either Spencer comes back strong, or Winston can become the LT many thought he could be as a collegian.

 

[Kaiser Toro]

Ross is a big play guy, but in my gut something is missing when I watch him. Just not sure if he has a passion for the game or will understand what it takes at the next level to be successful (scaling call).

I have nothing to back that up, just a feel.

 

[TEXANS84]

I've watched Weddle all his college career (Utah football fan) and he'd be a good FS. I'd love to take him in the third if he lasts there.

Guy's a good leader and hard hitter.