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Keeper Advice

Yankee_In_TX

Yankee_In_TX

Dance Lindsay!
I can keep 2, below are the ones worth considering and what I would give up for them:

2 - Julio Jones
4 - Vernon Davis
5 - Matt Forte (thinking heck no)
9 - Steve Smith
10 - Tony Gonzalez
12 - A.J. Green
15 - Andy Dalton
(last round is 15)

I have my thoughts but want to see what others thing.
 
Can't we just have one thread for all trade/keeper/waiver questions, and another for "rate my team"?

Anyways, AJ Green in round 12 is a steal. Definite keeper.

I would be torn between Forte and Steve Smith. Forte is going to be a 3rd round pick at the latest this year, so getting him for a 5th is a steal too. Steve Smith though, had an awesome year, but the Panthers didn't really do anything to improve their offense this year. Also, he trended downward as the season went on and defense learned how to stop Cam.

I'd go with Forte and Green, two weekly starters for sure.
 
Hmmm, much higher props than I thought for Forte.... He screwed me last season.... Felt like he played a lot fewer than 12 games...
 
A.J. Green and JulioJones hands down. No doubt in my mind. These two guys are the future Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson of the NFL.
 
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Why do you have to give up a second rounder for Julio? Did you draft him in the second last year?
 
stingray said:
Why do you have to give up a second rounder for Julio? Did you draft him in the second last year?
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We do 2 rounds higher from where the player was drafted - so you can't keep the same guy year after year. For the scoring in my league, 2nd round if kind of high for a WR....
 
Yankee_In_TX said:
We do 2 rounds higher from where the player was drafted - so you can't keep the same guy year after year. For the scoring in my league, 2nd round if kind of high for a WR....
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It is high, especially on a team that has a #1 WR established. Julio should have a great year, probably 1000-1200 yards and 6-9 TDs, but that can be found in rounds 3-5 also, he just happens to be hyped up this year. I always go by the rule of never draft a WR in the first two rounds. WR is always a deep position, RB and QB are not, so I focus on those in the first two. TEs are a dime a dozen as well and can be gotten in the 5-7 rounds. Green in round 12 is just awesome, easily a 1000 yard guy in a pass-first offense. Great drafting there, but I honestly don't see him being that different from Julio. With one WR and RB spot filled, you can go after other starters early and make a great team.
 
Yankee_In_TX said:
I can keep 2, below are the ones worth considering and what I would give up for them:

2 - Julio Jones
4 - Vernon Davis
5 - Matt Forte (thinking heck no)
9 - Steve Smith
10 - Tony Gonzalez
12 - A.J. Green
15 - Andy Dalton
(last round is 15)

I have my thoughts but want to see what others thing.
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I have no interest in FF but Julio Jones and Andy Dalton should have excellent seasons.
 
In our league, it looks like we aren't losing a pick for our one keeper. Instead, we get as many entries into the drawing for the #1 pick as the round number our keeper was chosen in.

So I'm trying to decide what to do. I could make Cam Newton my keeper and get like 15 entries for the #1 pick, but there is no guarantee. My other choice would be Ray Rice, but I'd only get 1 entry with him.

What say you? Should I go with Rice or Newton? Only other possible choices are MJD chosen in round 2, Jordy Nelson in round 13, or Darren McFadden chosen in round 3. Thoughts?
 
Say Watt said:
In our league, it looks like we aren't losing a pick for our one keeper. Instead, we get as many entries into the drawing for the #1 pick as the round number our keeper was chosen in.

So I'm trying to decide what to do. I could make Cam Newton my keeper and get like 15 entries for the #1 pick, but there is no guarantee. My other choice would be Ray Rice, but I'd only get 1 entry with him.

What say you? Should I go with Rice or Newton? Only other possible choices are MJD chosen in round 2, Jordy Nelson in round 13, or Darren McFadden chosen in round 3. Thoughts?
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So the incentive is the later round your keeper the higher the chance to get the #1 pick?

Does that ONLY affect the #1 pick or the entire draft order?

Depending on how your league scores I would take Rice or MJD over a QB or WR.
 
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The nice thing about keeping Dalton in the 15th is that next year you can have him in the 13th, then the 11th, etc. You can keep him long term.
Forte in the 5th means he is a 3rd next year and then a 1st the year after. Then he cant be kept, right?

So how long term are you thinking here?
 
Yankee_In_TX said:
So the incentive is the later round your keeper the higher the chance to get the #1 pick?

Does that ONLY affect the #1 pick of the entire draft order?

Depending on how your league scores I would take Rice or MJD over a QB or WR.
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Yeah I don't understand this method of drafting at all Cody. Are you saying you can Keep Ray Rice and still get a first round pick?? If so, do that. Rice is a top 3 pick IMO and worth it regardless of what pick you get in the first.
 
gtexan02 said:
The nice thing about keeping Dalton in the 15th is that next year you can have him in the 13th, then the 11th, etc. You can keep him long term.
Forte in the 5th means he is a 3rd next year and then a 1st the year after. Then he cant be kept, right?

So how long term are you thinking here?
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I don't know, I may be on notice. I think this is year 8 and my name is not on the trophy. I may fire me if this year doesn't go well. Even my wife is on the trophy.
 
Dutchrudder said:
Yeah I don't understand this method of drafting at all Cody. Are you saying you can Keep Ray Rice and still get a first round pick?? If so, do that. Rice is a top 3 pick IMO and worth it regardless of what pick you get in the first.
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^^^^^
what he said

(though I would consider MJD depending on his contract situation at the time of your draft)
 
Looking at stats, Dalton didn't do well last year and is not projected to do well this year, maybe 20-25th overall QB.

Forte is projected to be 4 or 5th overall RB.... I'm keeping Forte.
 
Which three should I keep?

1. A.J. Green
2. Brandon Marshall
3. Matt Forte
4. Michael Turner
5. Matt Ryan
6. Vernon Davis
 
JCTexan said:
Which three should I keep?

1. A.J. Green
2. Brandon Marshall
3. Matt Forte
4. Michael Turner
5. Matt Ryan
6. Vernon Davis
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I don't' know what you have to give up (kind of important), but all things being equal the three best are: AJ Green, Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall.
 
Dutchrudder said:
I don't' know what you have to give up (kind of important), but all things being equal the three best are: AJ Green, Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall.
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This is the first time I've done a keeper-league in football. I don't have to give up any draft picks or anything. So everything looks equal.
 
JCTexan said:
Which three should I keep?

1. A.J. Green
2. Brandon Marshall
3. Matt Forte
4. Michael Turner
5. Matt Ryan
6. Vernon Davis
Click to expand...

It depends on how many teams in your league, how its scored, etc. Lets just talk about a typical scoring league of 10 or 12 teams. Here is the 3 step process I use to decide on keepers:

1. Decide how you would rank each of the players you are considering.
2. Calculate approximate range of picks
3. determine whether that player falls in the range, is drastically over, or drastically under.

1. Determine how you would rank your players you are considering. This can be done using other guides as a starting point or create your own. I would suggest starting with another guide, or see the average draft position chart some FFB leagues provide. That's a good place to start.

2. Calculate the approximate range of picks. You have said you can pick up to 3 keepers. If your league has 10 teams, you need to find 3 players in the top 30(3 rounds x 10 picks per round). If your league has 12 teams, you need to find 3 players in the top 36 (3 x 12).

3. How many of the players you have listed would be top 30 or top 36?

-Matt Forte: I have him as a first rounder so a top 10 player. Top 10 is drastically better than top 30/36. So i'd keep him.

-Brandon Marshall: I have him in the mid 20s. We were looking for 3 in the top 30/36. Mid 20s is within range. I would keep him.

-AJ Green: right around a top 30 player. Here is where it gets tougher. Its a tossup. He is within range, but there may be better options available such as Julio Jones, DeMarco Murray, or Jordy nelson may be available. Personally, I'd keep him.

-Turner: I have him around 35. He is iffy, but I wouldn't take him. If I could only keep 3, I would take Green over Turner. Green has the potential to be an elite WR, Turner does not. There are also probably other good RB options available here(maybe McFadden or Jamal Charles for example).

-Matty Ice: I have him in the 60s/70s. That is well outside the top 30/36 paramters. Outside of the big time QBs, there is a big group which is not that different from each other stats wise. Grab one of them and save your valuable keeper spots.

-Vernon Davis: Pass big time. SF does not throw enough to justify making him a keeper. I have him around the 70s. He isn't Gronk or Jimmy Graham(the only 2 TEs I would make a keeper). You can probably redraft him in the 5th or 6th round and still be happy.

That's how I would do it. Best of luck.
 
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