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How many yards will Bush rush for in 2007!!!!!!!
- Thread starter Bush619
- Start date
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Bush619 said:I think he will just run and run and run like Forest Gump!!!! Not to mention he will be running for his life because ya'll know the Texans will not have an offensive line this year. My prediction is 1500 yards the first year.
RUN REGGIE RUN AND NEVER LOOK BACK!!!!
It's y'all not ya'll and IMO the safest bet of the next season is the OL is going to perform vastly better than anything we have seen the past 4 years.
Porky
Hall of Fame
2007 is his second year. I think you mean 2006? If he is on the Texans, he will rush for 1000-1200 yards, and will have another 500-600 receiving yards, give or take 10% either way. On another team? I would have to see the team first to take a guess, but they won't be radically different than the numbers above.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Porky said:
So basically in your opinion Reggie Bush adds very little over DD?
Johnny Utah
Rookie
I think he'll average around -
Per Game Totals:
16 carries, 80 yards
5 catches 45 yards
Seaston Totals:
1240 Rushing Yards
80 catches for 720 Yards
Per Game Totals:
16 carries, 80 yards
5 catches 45 yards
Seaston Totals:
1240 Rushing Yards
80 catches for 720 Yards
Johnny Utah
Rookie
infantrycak said:
Average Per Carry will be the difference being that Bush can score a TD from anywhere on the field at any time. That's what he will get paid the big bucks for.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Johnny Utah said:
No offense, but I was actually asking Porky for the rationale behind his prediction. Second, the ability to sustain drives and score in the red-zone is far more indicative of a winning team than having a guy who 3-4 times a year rips off a long TD because he can take it to the house from anywhere on the field. That doesn't mean Bush is a bad pick, but if people are hanging their hats on home-run ability carrying the team they are going to be disappointed. Top 3 TD producing RB's ever in single seasons--Alexander, Holmes and Smith--not a speedster present.
Johnny Utah
Rookie
infantrycak said:
Doubtful. I'm sure if Reggie Bush can put up Marshal Faulk type numbers and people won't be disappointed. Bush will have to be utilized differently then your traditional RB, but will create mismatches that teams will have to gameplan around like they did with Faulk.
Porky
Hall of Fame
infantrycak said:
Oh contraire. Well first off, I purpsosely decided to go conservative on his numbers as I would rather be wrong low than wrong high, it's just in my nature not to over hype numbers. You want a number based on his potential. How about 1500 rushing yds, and 1000 receivng yds. That is the kind of potential he has imo.
I based my yardage this way - I see him getting 12 to at most 18 carries a game on average, so his YPC will be considerably higher on those 1200 yards. I see him getting close to 5 yards a carry, which is outstanding. I see him averaging 15 carries, at 4.8 per rush = 72 yds a game = 1152 per yr. That is not including DD's rushing yds. He will probably get 10-12 carries himself. Let's say 10 at 4.3 yds each = 43 yds per game, or 688 himself. Figure in the other RB's and Carr, and you are looking at around 2400 team rushing yds. That's not too shabby.
To answer your question more directly, no he does add a lot over DD. He has tremendous open field speed and moves that teams will have to respect. DD does not force a team to game plan around stopping him, Bush will, which opens up other avenue's of attack, and could allow Carr more time, as the D will not want to get burnt by blitzing as often. Teams are not afraid we will burn the blitz. With Bush, that changes. While DD figures into the passing game, you aren't going to really use him as a slot WR like you can Bush, so his versatility is huge. He also has game changing and game breaking ability. He should also allow DD to stay healthy by not having to carry an excessive load. In short, a rising tide lifts all boats. Bush = the rising tide. He makes everyone on offense better and that is a stat that will never show up.
TheOgre
All Pro
Bush is a superior pass blocker to DD, a superior receiver, and is a home run threat. Many of our drives seem to bog down around the opponents 40 yard line. Instead of methodically moving down the field and encountering the dreaded (especially for this team) third downs, we now can break a TD on any run. That opens things up for the passing attack when teams are legitimately scared of our rushing attack.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Porky said:
I'm not knocking Bush per se. It is just a concern (I have them about both Bush and Young so it isn't partisan) IMO that even folks who are Bush proponents are projecting scenarios like you have. Such scenarios are troubling IMO because (a) they spell a concern even from the proponents about his carry the team ability (something to be expected from possibly the highest paid RB in the NFL--at least top 3), (b) I forsee problems between the coaches/fans/Bush when the 5 ypc back is on the sidelines relying on someone else rather than going for his 24th 5 yard run of the game when it comes to crunch time (see Rose Bowl) and (c) is he really going to lift all the boats in this fashion in the play-offs when he isn't full time to begin with. Huge talent, but like Young, he isn't in the conventional mold for his position and it will be interesting to see how they get used/how offenses are built around these franchise players.
TheOgre
All Pro
infantrycak said:
That is a legitimate concern. Just think about Barry Sanders though and how many times he was lifted for Cory Schlesinger or someone else to get that tough yard or goalline carry. I still think the fans in Detroit loved having him and the impact he had on that team despite his limitations. He made up for it with his explosiveness and escapeability.
infantrycak said:
b) he didn't ask out of the game!!! people always use this against him, but i cant see it. they took him out because they had TWO running backs, one of which was called thunder, the other was lightning. for short yardage, you put in thunder. obvious. that doesnt mean reggie bush can't play in those situations, it just means that he didn't at USC because they had a system. dont make this something it isnt for the sake of arguments.
c) what makes you think Reggie Bush won't be the main back on this team? you don't burn a #1 pick on a sub or kicker. nobody has ever told you otherwise, so why would you assume that? and somehow that matters in the playoffs? a good player in the season is a good player in the playoffs, except for the choking quarterbacks.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
BeerFan said:
If you read the whole thread you will see I am not making anything up. Folks who like Bush are projecting 1200 yds for him on a season--see example above your post. That is not a dominant top 5, maybe not even top 10 kind of year. Taken at #1 he will be paid in the top 3 of NFL RB's right off the bat whereas guys like Alexander, LT, Tiki, Larry Johnson, Edge, etc. are dominant NFL running backs who were not considered worthy of #1 overall picks and don't eat up as much cap space. Seems like a pretty serious consideration IMO that even his fans don't think he can be that kind of dominant RB.
See above. If you can't carry the rock and dominate a game single handedly during the regular season, you won't be doing it in the play-offs either.
Settle down--what should be the norm for the MB is discussion not a morass of attack and advocacy posts.
TheOgre said:
In College, @ USC, against the WAC.....at least Ladainian played in the Big 12.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
TheOgre said:
If it was just a short yardage thing I would be much less concerned. Fred Taylor always had someone do that work for him but could still carry the game otherwise when healthy. Same with Barry. But Taylor and Sanders could both carry enough to be projected and actually hit 1500 yds. It is interesting IMO that Bush's fans aren't really seeing that for him.
Johnny Utah
Rookie
infantrycak said:
Bush is not being drafted on strickly his RB skills, but because of the dual threat he gives you as a RB and WR. If Bush would give a team 1200 yards rushing and 700-800 yards receiving he would be giving you around 2000 yards production for the year. Compare that to some of the premier backs in the league in 2005.
Shaun Alexander
1880 Rushing Yards
78 Receiving Yards
1958 Total
Ladainian Tomlinson
1462 Rushing
370 Receiving
1832 Total
Tiki Barber
1860 Rushing
530 Receiving
2390 Total
Edgerrin James
1506 Rushing
337 Receving
1843 Total
As you see with those numbers he stacks up with the premier back in the league in total yardage. In one season Faulk had over 1000 yards receiving and I don't think that is out of the realm of posibility for Bush to do the same in the right system.
infantrycak said:
1200 yards for a rookie on a crappy team. its just a conservative estimate, not his peak production. that also doesn't include return yards, receptions, and disrupting defenses and opening opportunities for other players.
i agree, if you can't dominate a game in season, you won't do it postseason. unless you're frank reich. but my point is that we have NO reason to assume he can't do these things. we have a million more reasons to believe he can. right?
Porky
Hall of Fame
Johnny Utah - good post. And I mentioned I think his upside is to be a 1000 yd receiver. I mentioned that in an earlier post. He can catch out of the backfield, and they can move him, line him up in the slot, etc. If he does what what I think his upside is - 1500+ running yds, and 1000 in receving, that puts him at 2500 all purpose yards. That's a player worthy of the #1 overall, and a guy that the D has to game plan for, opening up all kinds of possibities elsewhere. I know the popular opionion on this MB is to knock Bush right now, but I am not buying it. I like all 3 options (Bush, VY, trade down) and will be happy with any, but I will be thrilled with Bush.
TheOgre
All Pro
infantrycak said:
I'm not really an advocate of Bush or Young. I'd prefer to trade down. I think Ferguson, Mario Williams, or Hawk along with some additional picks (assuming someone would make that deal...still an assumption) would be better for us long-term. I like Carr's upside more than DD's. I think we have seen all that DD will give us, and I am not that impressed.
I know you like DD, Infantrycak, but I just am not a fan of his. We've actually won a higher percent of games with Wells than with DD in the lineup since they have both been on the team (2003). For many of the same reasons that Buffalo took McGahee when they already had Henry, I think we can afford to take Bush when we already have DD. DD is a competent starter, but not a good one IMO. I know how you feel and have seen your stats, so there is no need to rehash that topic.
While Carr hasn't shown much in his time here, I still think he could be great with a good scheme and some NFL caliber starters around him on his offense.
Kaiser Toro
Native Mod
I will go with 619 yards no matter who he is with next year.
swtbound07
Jackass of Day!
i have to say the short yardage arguement is ridiculous, and i hate reggie bush. Caddilac Williams gets 24-29 carries a game for tampa, but on 4th and 1 or 3rd and 1 they are bringing in alstott. Short yardage specialty backs are no indication of anything.
AustinJB
Rookie
Johnny Utah said:
So...you're saying we'll get a faster DD except he won't be able to run up the middle as much as DD.
Domanick Davis
2005-Started 11 games
230 carries (career low) for 976 yds, 2 TD
39 catches for 337 yds, 4 TD (most by AFC RB)
(1313 total yds from scrimmage)
2004-Started 15 games
302 carries for 1188 yds, 13 TD
68 catches for 588 yds, 1 TD (trailed only B.Westbrook who had 73 catches)
(5th in NFL in total yds from scrimmage w/ 1776)
2003-Played 14 games, starting 10
238 carries for 1031, 8 TD
47 catches for 351 yds
(1382 total yds from scrimmage)
From these stats, I can see DD having 700-800 receiving yds too, if we had another legit RB. In his 2nd season, when he started all but one game, he had almost 2,000 yds too. In fact, the only need I see is another quality RB to take some of the pressure off of DD therefor limiting his injuries. But I would NOT use a #1 pick on that RB; can't see Kubes doing it either.
Come on people!! You're not going to bench a guy that has been as productive as DD his 1st three years therefor, Bush will NOT be the main RB in our offense. And (not trying to turn this into a VY/Bush thread, but...) why do you want to replace a productive starter w/ someone that has not proven that they are a productive starter (i.e. Carr, whether it's his fault or not is irrelevant to this particular discussion.)
Johnny Utah
Rookie
AustinJB said:So...you're saying we'll get a faster DD except he won't be able to run up the middle as much as DD.
Domanick Davis
2005-Started 11 games
230 carries (career low) for 976 yds, 2 TD
39 catches for 337 yds, 4 TD (most by AFC RB)
(1313 total yds from scrimmage)
2004-Started 15 games
302 carries for 1188 yds, 13 TD
68 catches for 588 yds, 1 TD (trailed only B.Westbrook who had 73 catches)
(5th in NFL in total yds from scrimmage w/ 1776)
2003-Played 14 games, starting 10
238 carries for 1031, 8 TD
47 catches for 351 yds
(1382 total yds from scrimmage)
From these stats, I can see DD having 700-800 receiving yds too, if we had another legit RB. In his 2nd season, when he started all but one game, he had almost 2,000 yds too. In fact, the only need I see is another quality RB to take some of the pressure off of DD therefor limiting his injuries. But I would NOT use a #1 pick on that RB; can't see Kubes doing it either.
Come on people!! You're not going to bench a guy that has been as productive as DD his 1st three years therefor, Bush will NOT be the main RB in our offense. And (not trying to turn this into a VY/Bush thread, but...) why do you want to replace a productive starter w/ someone that has not proven that they are a productive starter (i.e. Carr, whether it's his fault or not is irrelevant to this particular discussion.)
I actually want the Texans to draft VY, but I believe that Bush would be amazing with us also. Those stats still don't compare to what I think Bush can give this team as a WR and RB. I'm talking about him eventually getting 800-1000 yards receiving and 1200-1400 on the ground. The biggest difference between Bush and DD will be in the YPC category. DD has averaged 4.1 YPC for his career, and IMO Bush will get into the 4.8 to 5+ YPC area.
AustinJB
Rookie
Johnny Utah said:
I'm definitely not bashing you (especially since we want the same thing...VY,) but I think people are expecting miracles w/ Bush. For all the people that say VY fans think he hung the moon, look what they're expecting out of Bush. 800-1000 receiving and 1200-1400 rushing?! Wow!! JMO, but I don't think so...seems a little unrealistic to me....especially w/ him splitting time w/ DD. At best, I see bush w/ 900 rushing and 700 receiving...at worst, a bust b/c of injury. Either way, not worthy of the #1 pick for a team that already has a running game; in fact, a running game is the only positive offense on the entire team.
Johnny Utah
Rookie
AustinJB said:I'm definitely not bashing you (especially since we want the same thing...VY,) but I think people are expecting miracles w/ Bush. For all the people that say VY fans think he hung the moon, look what they're expecting out of Bush. 800-1000 receiving and 1200-1400 rushing?! Wow!! JMO, but I don't think so...seems a little unrealistic to me....especially w/ him splitting time w/ DD. At best, I see bush w/ 900 rushing and 700 receiving...at worst, a bust b/c of injury. Either way, not worthy of the #1 pick for a team that already has a running game; in fact, a running game is the only positive offense on the entire team.
That's okay, I don't think you are trying to bash me. I just feel that Bush is capable of putting up Faulk type numbers, and when Faulk was at his peek and being utilized correctly from 98-02 he put up the following stats.
1998 - Indy
1319 Rushing Yards
324 ATT
4.1 YPC
908 Receiving Yards
86 Receptions
10.6 YPR
1999 - St. Louis
1381 Rushing
253 ATT
5.5 YPC
1048 Receiving Yards
87 Receptions
12.0 YPC
2000 - St. Loius
1359 Rushing
253 ATT
5.4 YPC
830 Receiving
81 Receptions
10.2 YPR
2001 - St. Louis
1382 Rushing
260 ATT
5.3 YPC
765 Receiving
83 Receptions
9.2 YPR
Unfortunately for Faulk he was stuck with the Colts early in his career and they used him like your typical RB giving him 300+ carries and not fully utilizing his receiving skills until his last season with them. If the Texans draft Bush they need to use the Rams as a blueprint on how to make the most out of Bush's skills.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
TheOgre said:
That is pretty much where I am at despite the fact that any post questioning Young or Bush is viewed as an attack. I will be happy and root for Young, Bush or a package of players--whatever the Texans choose. None of the options are the no-brainers people are making out--there are legitimate reasons and concerns for each.
I think that is a fair statement. I suspect at some point DD will break from his Fragile Fred mold as Fred did and rip off one or two injury free seasons and bump up his stats, but we have seen the vast majority of what he is as a runner.
Actually, I see DD as easily being upgraded. What people perceive as my liking DD is my opposition to hyperbolic or unfounded statements about him. He's too small, he isn't physical, he isn't even a legitimate starter, he can't run between the tackles (can't believe that one was used), etc. IMO he has been a solid RB who has been a fantastic value for the team. I'd have taken Ronnie Brown last year in a heart beat to upgrade him though so I do not think he is an untouchable player.
I do have cap management/best combo concerns about Bush. With Kubiack coming in and hopefully (fingers and toes crossed) Gibbs, I see no reason why DD (originally wanted by Shanahan/Kubiack) and Morency couldn't provide a successful running game allowing a trade down, better cap situation and potentially more well rounded team. That isn't the same thing as thinking DD is Alexander.
Porky
Hall of Fame
If the Texans decide they are not taking a QB under any circumstances, then the organization from Mcnair, the scouts, Kubiak and others, has to answer a question. Is Bush a combination of Faulk and Sanders as I believe, or is he a combination of Westbrook and Dunn? If they think it's the former, it's a no brainer. Barring a great trade offer, you take him. If it's the latter, you trade down for the best offer to someone who does think he is the former. I realize grading and projecting players is an inexact science, but they have to come to a decision on his NFL value, and stick by it. I am personally still in the draft VY camp, but I can see the negatives and positives for all of the by now familiar three choices, so I am happy no matter what, unless they trade down and take some punter from Western Boise Jr. College.
..im not helping anything heh.
Texans_Chick
Utopian Dreamer
Hard to say. It depends on how he is used and how often he is on the field with DD.
Lots of touches that should be divided up between a DD, Bush, and AJ. If AJ is healthy, we could see him have a sick good season if they free up the double teams some and even get half way adequate pass protection.
I think a nice upside would be Faulk's rookie year (Indy had a bad year the year before, ended up at .500 the following year):
1,282 yards rushing 4.1 average 11 TDs 52 receptions 522 receiving yards 10 yard average.
Lots of touches that should be divided up between a DD, Bush, and AJ. If AJ is healthy, we could see him have a sick good season if they free up the double teams some and even get half way adequate pass protection.
I think a nice upside would be Faulk's rookie year (Indy had a bad year the year before, ended up at .500 the following year):
1,282 yards rushing 4.1 average 11 TDs 52 receptions 522 receiving yards 10 yard average.
Both Carr & DD have been productive starters in the NFL. Last season wasn't particularly good for either...'nuff said.AustinJB said:And (not trying to turn this into a VY/Bush thread, but...) why do you want to replace a productive starter w/ someone that has not proven that they are a productive starter (i.e. Carr, whether it's his fault or not is irrelevant to this particular discussion.)
Both VY & Bush haven't....and both would be upgrades to their respective positions on the Texans insofar as certain ABILITIES go. Whether either player would be a total package upgrade is still a crapshoot at this point.
I do believe that it's far EASIER on an RB to put up fantastic numbers as a rookie than it is for any QB. The job responsibilities are far more complex for the QB. That said, I'd love to see what Bush could accomplish as a receiver alone, much less the added yards as an RB w/ limited or split carries.
Hottoddie
Veteran
It doesn't matter how many yards he runs for. He'll be doing it for someone else.
In a surprise move, the Texans trade down with Miami for their #1 pick (#16), Ricky Williams (after team doctors determine he's got his head on straight), their 2nd round pick, & their 2007 #1 pick.
With the #16 pick, the Texans select Ashton Youboty (CB).
In the second round, they select Daryn Colledge (OT) & Jesse Mahelona (DT) with Miami's pick.
In the 3rd round, they select Joe Klopfenstein (TE) & Charles Spencer (OG).
In the 4th, they select Nick Mangold (C).
In the 5th, they select Justin London (ILB).
In the 6th, they select Marques Colston (WR).
In the 7th, they select Lequalan McDonald (OG).
Or, at least that's my opinion.
In a surprise move, the Texans trade down with Miami for their #1 pick (#16), Ricky Williams (after team doctors determine he's got his head on straight), their 2nd round pick, & their 2007 #1 pick.
With the #16 pick, the Texans select Ashton Youboty (CB).
In the second round, they select Daryn Colledge (OT) & Jesse Mahelona (DT) with Miami's pick.
In the 3rd round, they select Joe Klopfenstein (TE) & Charles Spencer (OG).
In the 4th, they select Nick Mangold (C).
In the 5th, they select Justin London (ILB).
In the 6th, they select Marques Colston (WR).
In the 7th, they select Lequalan McDonald (OG).
Or, at least that's my opinion.
TheOgre
All Pro
I completely agree.infantrycak said:
Agree again.infantrycak said:
I am a bit concerned about us having so much money invested in QB, WR, and RB. That is what has gotten Indy into trouble. They have approximately 50% of their cap invested in their 6 skill position players. It is hard to win in the playoffs when you lose the battle of the trenches. Schemes can help only so much, talent really shows up in the playoffs.infantrycak said:
That is why I think if we draft Young, you trade Carr. Likewise, if you draft Bush, you trade DD and move Morency into DD's role.
TEXANS84 said:
My bad... for some reason I thought he went to Texas Tech.