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Head Coach Candidate (Lovie Smith Hired) 2/7/22

CloakNNNdagger

Hall of Fame
McClain: Lovie Smith has confidence in Pep Hamilton and Davis Mills

Feb. 9, 2022Updated: Feb. 9, 2022 6:31 p.m.


Pep Hamilton got a good look at Davis Mills during his rookie season and by returning as offensive coordinator under Lovie Smith will provide continuity for the young quarterback.

Smith, elevated from associate head coach/defensive coordinator to head coach, and Hamilton, promoted from passing game coordinator/quarterback coach to offensive coordinator, believe in Davis Mills as their starting quarterback.

While Hamilton was coaching Mills in practice, Smith was watching from the defensive side of the ball.

“It always starts with the quarterback, and Pep’s reputation says he knows how to develop young quarterbacks,” Smith said.

“I had a chance to see Davis from a lot of different angles, and I like what we saw from him.”

Smith and Hamilton can’t say Mills will become a franchise quarterback, but they saw enough of him as a rookie, especially in the last five games, to believe he should go into his second training camp as the starter.

Mills, a third-round draft choice, outplayed every rookie quarterback other than New England’s Mac Jones. Mills, who was Nick Caserio’s first draft choice as a general manager, finished with 16 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions and an 88.8 rating.

Hamilton helped Mills fashion four games in which he had triple-digit ratings. Against the Patriots (141.7), Chargers (130.6), Titans (128.5) and Rams (106.2) in those four games, he had 10 touchdown passes and one interception.
 

Double Barrel

Clown Hunter
Staff member
Contributor's Club
One thing that the Lovie hire gives the Texans that they haven't had in the last year, CREDIBILITY.
Yep. This is one of the big positives with hiring Lovie. The perception of both coaches and players matters, and that would not have been the case with a puppet McCown that has Jack holding his strings.

A lot of fans are focusing on potential win/loss record, and I certainly understand that. But, I think this franchise is in such a sorry state that they basically have to focus on building a football-oriented foundation before they can really look at long term and sustainable success. O'Brien left this franchise in a hole that Watson just dug deeper. Fill that hold first and then build on that instead of covering it up with worthless, empty platitudes and double-speak that just hides it.
 

Texian

Hall of Fame
Yep. This is one of the big positives with hiring Lovie. The perception of both coaches and players matters, and that would not have been the case with a puppet McCown that has Jack holding his strings.

A lot of fans are focusing on potential win/loss record, and I certainly understand that. But, I think this franchise is in such a sorry state that they basically have to focus on building a football-oriented foundation before they can really look at long term and sustainable success. O'Brien left this franchise in a hole that Watson just dug deeper. Fill that hold first and then build on that instead of covering it up with worthless, empty platitudes and double-speak that just hides it.
The Texans may only win 4 games in 2022 but they will be credible wins. I'm not convinced that Pep Hamilton is the answer to Tim Kelly. In fact, Pep could be a step backwards.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
The Texans may only win 4 games in 2022 but they will be credible wins. I'm not convinced that Pep Hamilton is the answer to Tim Kelly. In fact, Pep could be a step backwards.
Really? Have you looked at the schedule? We have 7 games against opponents below .500 this past year. And we have 5 games against opponents with only 9 wins. You really have to be drinking the hemlock to think we can't, or won't, improve on this past year's 4 wins.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
The Texans may only win 4 games in 2022 but they will be credible wins. I'm not convinced that Pep Hamilton is the answer to Tim Kelly. In fact, Pep could be a step backwards.
I'm just happy that there's continuity in that Mills will know Pep's offense.

Pep deserved this promotion with the work he did with Mills.

As far as your post goes, lets see if Caserio can get Mills a couple of quality OL this offseason and draft a couple of playmakers. That will help Pep/Mills out alot.
 

KA4Texan

I'm not eating crickets.
Contributor's Club
You're drinking just as much if you think records this year mean anything next year.
Well.... I for one still expect the Texans to suck even IF there is improvement... so one record from this season I believe will remain at least semi relevant next season. :troll:
 

Double Barrel

Clown Hunter
Staff member
Contributor's Club
The Texans may only win 4 games in 2022 but they will be credible wins. I'm not convinced that Pep Hamilton is the answer to Tim Kelly. In fact, Pep could be a step backwards.
I have no idea at this point. I'm not big into predictions, and there is so much that needs to take place before September with the draft, FA, and the Watson saga.

And I still think the AFC South is a weak division. Titans might have been the no. 1 seed, but they sure didn't act like it in the divisional round. They folded. And the Colts and Jags are who they are, so this is a division that can still be wide open next season.

Lovie is known for really pushing turnovers and special teams, so if this team can put together a solid defense and an offense that doesn't pee down it's own leg, who knows?

Be competitive, make good coaching decisions during games, and take it week to week. That's all I'm asking for as a Texans fan in 2022.
 

Section 134

Practice Squad
How can anyone be happy with this coaching hire? A lifetime .500 achievement in the NFL, .304 record at Illinois, 40 years coaching with 12 different teams, away from the NFL for 7 years - just another re-tread from the coaching hamster wheel. So disappointed.
 
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Texian

Hall of Fame
And I still think the AFC South is a weak division.

Lovie is known for really pushing turnovers and special teams, so if this team can put together a solid defense and an offense that doesn't pee down it's own leg, who knows?

Be competitive, make good coaching decisions during games, and take it week to week. That's all I'm asking for as a Texans fan in 2022.
AFC South = 1st and 3rd pick in draft.

Lovie's defense ranked close to the bottom in most categories in 2021. Why would 2022 be any different? Lovie is going to be the DC and call plays. That takes an enormous amount of time away from him being HC. Lovie will spend most of his time putting in the defensive game plan for next week's opponent. It's Pep's offense to win or lose. My thoughts on Pep are, he sure was fired from a lot of jobs, after some rather short stints. Why? Pep sounds like he's here because he's part of the good old buddy plan. We know how that usually works out... not so well. (Remember Kubiak's first foray)
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
It's Pep's offense to win or lose. My thoughts on Pep are, he sure was fired from a lot of jobs, after some rather short stints.
I am concerned that Pep hasn't had an OC gig since the Colts. I wonder why.

I wasn't a big fan of his offense in Indy. I don't think Luck ever got better at reading defenses. He got better at using his skills & talent. But was still a poor pocket passer.

I hope promoting Pep doesn't stop Mills' development.
 

maverick512000

Hall of Fame
I am concerned that Pep hasn't had an OC gig since the Colts. I wonder why.

I wasn't a big fan of his offense in Indy. I don't think Luck ever got better at reading defenses. He got better at using his skills & talent. But was still a poor pocket passer.

I hope promoting Pep doesn't stop Mills' development.
Luck was a poor pocket passer because his line never gave him a pocket to pass in. People think Watson had to run for his life it was nothing compared to what Luck had to deal with not just first couple of years but his whole career.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Luck was a poor pocket passer because his line never gave him a pocket to pass in.
Really hard to tell, may be a chicken/egg thing. The Colts addressed the OL again & again. Like the early Texans. They were able to run, but couldn’t protect the QB.

in Houston the OL got 10x better when we moved from David Carr to Matt Schaub.

I’m not saying that was the case in Indy. Only that it’s hard to say.
 

Double Barrel

Clown Hunter
Staff member
Contributor's Club
AFC South = 1st and 3rd pick in draft.

Lovie's defense ranked close to the bottom in most categories in 2021. Why would 2022 be any different? Lovie is going to be the DC and call plays. That takes an enormous amount of time away from him being HC. Lovie will spend most of his time putting in the defensive game plan for next week's opponent. It's Pep's offense to win or lose. My thoughts on Pep are, he sure was fired from a lot of jobs, after some rather short stints. Why? Pep sounds like he's here because he's part of the good old buddy plan. We know how that usually works out... not so well. (Remember Kubiak's first foray)
I don't necessarily disagree with you. I guess part of it is Lovie is the so-called "lesser of two evils" if it's a choice between him or McCown.

I don't have high expectations for 2022. . .or 2023, if I'm honest. . .but, my low bar is for this franchise to at least start looking and acting like a football team that is focused on building a better football team instead of clown show in search of bigger clown noses.

The sad part is 5 wins in 2022 is considered improvement. It's a very low bar indeed. lol
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I am concerned that Pep hasn't had an OC gig since the Colts. I wonder why.

I wasn't a big fan of his offense in Indy. I don't think Luck ever got better at reading defenses. He got better at using his skills & talent. But was still a poor pocket passer.

I hope promoting Pep doesn't stop Mills' development.
Luck was always a slightly above avg passer from the pocket.

He did his damage on b
Luck was a poor pocket passer because his line never gave him a pocket to pass in. People think Watson had to run for his life it was nothing compared to what Luck had to deal with not just first couple of years but his whole career.
Luck and Derrick's games were similar, Luck was not a selfish person or player. Of course they had different upbringings and we can't talk about that.
 

TheMatrix31

Hall of Fame
I don't think wins are a good indicator of where a franchise like ours is at.

Of course, I always disagree with the whole "a win is a win" and "you are what your record says you are" when it comes to sports.

In our case we have to look at individual games and context. In 2021 we won a pittance of games but many other games were winnable and we got blown out in what, 5 of 17 games? We were far from the worst team in the league and for a team like ours with absolutely nothing on it and in the situation we were in, the team was better than the record indicated. Conversely, while under Vladimir Obrien, we won how many divisions and were complete uninteresting, unwatchable, non-competitive garbage against anybody who was actually good.

It's just hard to judge solely on paper right now. I know we all want wins and championships and of course I thoroughly agree with that as the ultimate objective and everything should be with that in mind. I just think nuance is important.
 

OptimisticTexan

2022 Rebuilding Block 2 / Go Texans
Luck was a poor pocket passer because his line never gave him a pocket to pass in. People think Watson had to run for his life it was nothing compared to what Luck had to deal with not just first couple of years but his whole career.
Just wanted to look into this statement and found the following in regards to OL Rankings:

LUCK
2012- 31
2013- 25
2014- 17
2015- 15
2016- 25
2017- 25
2018- 03 **Not a typo**

WATSON
2017- 32
2018- 23
2019- 20
2020- 23

MILLS
2021- 29 **Run Ranked 32 @ 47.4**
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
I don't think wins are a good indicator of where a franchise like ours is at.

Of course, I always disagree with the whole "a win is a win" and "you are what your record says you are" when it comes to sports.

In our case we have to look at individual games and context. In 2021 we won a pittance of games but many other games were winnable and we got blown out in what, 5 of 17 games? We were far from the worst team in the league and for a team like ours with absolutely nothing on it and in the situation we were in, the team was better than the record indicated. Conversely, while under Vladimir Obrien, we won how many divisions and were complete uninteresting, unwatchable, non-competitive garbage against anybody who was actually good.

It's just hard to judge solely on paper right now. I know we all want wins and championships and of course I thoroughly agree with that as the ultimate objective and everything should be with that in mind. I just think nuance is important.
By that logic the Lions were a ton better football team than the Texans were. They lost/tied 6 games by 4 points or less. Texans with just 2.

Your record absolutely says who you are. The game is about winning or losing. Don’t win the game, you’re not good enough. Sure, sometimes there’s fluke losses when a ball bounces a certain way or a refs call goes a certain way, but you can say that about wins too. The accumulation of games during a season tells you who you are, whether you lose by 1 or 40, or win by 1 or 40. How many games can you endure all that takes place in those games and come out on top? The Texans were only able to do that 4 times. That’s who they are.
True. Point differential is probably a better indicator.
Texans had the 3rd worst point differential, right where their record was.
 
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Lucky

Trust Me. I Know What I'm Doing.
Staff member
In our case we have to look at individual games and context. In 2021 we won a pittance of games but many other games were winnable and we got blown out in what, 5 of 17 games? We were far from the worst team in the league and for a team like ours with absolutely nothing on it and in the situation we were in, the team was better than the record indicated.
It's just hard to judge solely on paper right now.
It's actually not that difficult to judge on paper. Baseball statisticians use the Pythagorean Theorem to determine expected wins and losses via runs scored. The same can be done for football.

Screenshot 2022-02-12 080351.png

The Texans scored 280 points and allowed 452 points.

Expected record = 280²/(280² + 452²) x 17 = (78400/(78400+ 204304)) x 17

Texans Expected Record in 2021 = 4.7 wins - 12.3 losses.

Pretty close to their actual record of 4-13

The other teams that finished in the bottom 5 of record expected records:

Jags - 4.0 Wins - 13.0 Losses (3-14 actual)
Lions - 5.5 Wins - 11.5 Losses (3-13-1 actual)
Jets - 4.7 Wins - 12.3 Losses (4-13 actual)
Giants - 4.7 Wins - 12.3 Losses (4-13 actual)

So the Texans were about 4 TDs away from being the worst team in the NFL. So thank you Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and Anthony Miller. Your TDs kept the Texans from being the bottom of the barrel.
 

TexansBull

Hall of Fame
It's actually not that difficult to judge on paper. Baseball statisticians use the Pythagorean Theorem to determine expected wins and losses via runs scored. The same can be done for football.

View attachment 9743

The Texans scored 280 points and allowed 452 points.

Expected record = 280²/(280² + 452²) x 17 = (78400/(78400+ 204304)) x 17

Texans Expected Record in 2021 = 4.7 wins - 12.3 losses.

Pretty close to their actual record of 4-13

The other teams that finished in the bottom 5 of record expected records:

Jags - 4.0 Wins - 13.0 Losses (3-14 actual)
Lions - 5.5 Wins - 11.5 Losses (3-13-1 actual)
Jets - 4.7 Wins - 12.3 Losses (4-13 actual)
Giants - 4.7 Wins - 12.3 Losses (4-13 actual)

So the Texans were about 4 TDs away from being the worst team in the NFL. So thank you Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and Anthony Miller. Your TDs kept the Texans from being the bottom of the barrel.
 

mws

Rookie
It's actually not that difficult to judge on paper. Baseball statisticians use the Pythagorean Theorem to determine expected wins and losses via runs scored. The same can be done for football.
This fascinates me. I plugged the formula into my database and got these results. Sorry for the terrible formatting.

2014 | 16 games | 372 Texans | 307 opps | 65 point diff | 4.1 ave diff per game | 9-7 actual | 9.5 - 6.5 predicted
2015 | 16 games | 339 Texans | 313 opps | 26 point diff | 1.6 ave diff per game | 9-7 actual | 8.6 - 7.4 predicted
2016 | 16 games | 279 Texans | 328 opps | -49 point diff | -3.0 ave diff per game | 9-7 actual | 6.7 - 9.3 predicted
2017 | 16 games | 338 Texans | 436 opps | -98 point diff | -6.1 ave diff per game | 4-12 actual | 6.0 - 10.0 predicted
2018 | 16 games | 402 Texans | 316 opps | 86 point diff | 5.4 ave diff per game | 11-5 actual | 9.9 - 6.1 predicted
2019 | 16 games | 378 Texans | 385 opps | -7 point diff | -0.4 ave diff per game | 10-6 actual | 7.9 - 8.1 predicted
2020 | 16 games | 384 Texans | 464 opps | -80 point diff | -5.0 ave diff per game | 4-12 actual | 6.5 - 9.5 predicted
2021 | 17 games | 280 Texans | 452 opps | -172 point diff | -10.1 ave diff per game | 4-13 actual | 4.7 - 12.3 predicted

You can see that the years where we had a winning record with a negative point differential through it off.
 

Earl34

All Pro
This fascinates me. I plugged the formula into my database and got these results. Sorry for the terrible formatting.

2014 | 16 games | 372 Texans | 307 opps | 65 point diff | 4.1 ave diff per game | 9-7 actual | 9.5 - 6.5 predicted
2015 | 16 games | 339 Texans | 313 opps | 26 point diff | 1.6 ave diff per game | 9-7 actual | 8.6 - 7.4 predicted
2016 | 16 games | 279 Texans | 328 opps | -49 point diff | -3.0 ave diff per game | 9-7 actual | 6.7 - 9.3 predicted
2017 | 16 games | 338 Texans | 436 opps | -98 point diff | -6.1 ave diff per game | 4-12 actual | 6.0 - 10.0 predicted
2018 | 16 games | 402 Texans | 316 opps | 86 point diff | 5.4 ave diff per game | 11-5 actual | 9.9 - 6.1 predicted
2019 | 16 games | 378 Texans | 385 opps | -7 point diff | -0.4 ave diff per game | 10-6 actual | 7.9 - 8.1 predicted
2020 | 16 games | 384 Texans | 464 opps | -80 point diff | -5.0 ave diff per game | 4-12 actual | 6.5 - 9.5 predicted
2021 | 17 games | 280 Texans | 452 opps | -172 point diff | -10.1 ave diff per game | 4-13 actual | 4.7 - 12.3 predicted

You can see that the years where we had a winning record with a negative point differential through it off.
I was also interested and didn’t get around to create my spreadsheet. Thanks for doing the work!

Your data supports what I’ve believed about the 2020 versus 2021 seasons. Although the win totals are the same, the 2020 squad felt like they could have won 3 to 4 more games. However, I never felt the 2021 squad could win more than four games.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
By that logic the Lions were a ton better football team than the Texans were. They lost/tied 6 games by 4 points or less. Texans with just 2.

Your record absolutely says who you are. The game is about winning or losing. Don’t win the game, you’re not good enough. Sure, sometimes there’s fluke losses when a ball bounces a certain way or a refs call goes a certain way, but you can say that about wins too. The accumulation of games during a season tells you who you are, whether you lose by 1 or 40, or win by 1 or 40. How many games can you endure all that takes place in those games and come out on top? The Texans were only able to do that 4 times. That’s who they are.


Texans had the 3rd worst point differential, right where their record was.
Did you feel this way when BOB was winning AFC South Championships?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I was also interested and didn’t get around to create my spreadsheet. Thanks for doing the work!

Your data supports what I’ve believed about the 2020 versus 2021 seasons. Although the win totals are the same, the 2020 squad felt like they could have won 3 to 4 more games. However, I never felt the 2021 squad could win more than four games.
Speaking of feelings, I felt they would win as many games without Derrick as they did the yr before and said so before the yr started. I was called crazy/a hater etc... What I haven't been called since the season is over is CORRECT.

I also felt that Derrick will never win a SB. I still feel this to be the case more than ever right now.
 

Earl34

All Pro
Speaking of feelings, I felt they would win as many games without Derrick as they did the yr before and said so before the yr started. I was called crazy/a hater etc... What I haven't been called since the season is over is CORRECT.

I also felt that Derrick will never win a SB. I still feel this to be the case more than ever right now.
I’m not bashing you because your viewpoint is very common among fans. This extreme viewpoint on QBs appears based on your feelings for a QB, you either give them too much credit or too much blame for wins and losses. There is no nuance or context and no amount of data or facts will change your mind.

IMHO. No one has said you are CORRECT because, your four win prediction was based strictly on your dislike of Derrick and hope that Taylor was an adequate replacement. You had no idea the defense or Mills would exceed expectations. Any objective observer or metric shows the 2020 squad should have won more than four games and the reasons they didn’t was more about complementary football than it was about one single player.

Unfortunately, nothing will change your mind and it’s pointless to try. With Mills at QB, you can now acknowledge that the OL, running game and defense can negatively impact a young QB’s development and the team’s record. As long as Derrick was the starting QB, you would never make that acknowledgment. Glad you can now return to evaluating our favorite team without focusing on one player to blame for everything that is wrong with the team.
 
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steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I’m not bashing you because your viewpoint is very common among fans. This extreme viewpoint on QBs appears based on your feelings for a QB, you either give them too much credit or too much blame for wins and losses. There is no nuance or context and no amount of data or facts will change your mind.

IMHO. No one has said you are CORRECT because, your four win prediction was based strictly on your dislike of Derrick. Any objective observer or metric shows the 2020 squad should have won more than four games and the reasons they didn’t was more about complementary football than it was about one single player.

Unfortunately, nothing will change your mind and it’s pointless to try. With Mills at QB, you’re now aware that the OL, running game and defense can impact a QB development and impact wins and losses. Glad you decided to join Team Objective.
See I'm not a believer in numbers like you are. Numbers have their place but are far from a be all end all. Fact they won as many games. Fact, Derrick had more weapons to work with, like a healthy Tunsil protecting his blindside/WFV/Cooks etc... Funny how I thought trading Hopkins would be a good thing for Derrick and he ended up having his best statistical season. Even if those numbers were mainly hollow numbers.
 

Earl34

All Pro
See I'm not a believer in numbers like you are. Numbers have their place but are far from a be all end all. Fact they won as many games. Fact, Derrick had more weapons to work with, like a healthy Tunsil protecting his blindside/WFV/Cooks etc... Funny how I thought trading Hopkins would be a good thing for Derrick and he ended up having his best statistical season. Even if those numbers were mainly hollow numbers.
That’s incorrect. You didn’t think the Hopkins trade would be good for Derrick because you believed he can’t read defenses and expected him to fail without his “blankie“.

Anyway, it doesn’t matter now and I’m not interested in another pointless Derrick debate. You responded to my post and out of courtesy, I responded to yours. We will always agree to disagree with your evaluation of Derrick‘s on-field play and how you blame one player without any consideration of the other players‘ performances in the ultimate team sport.
 
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steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
That’s incorrect. You didn’t think the Hopkins trade would be good for Derrick because you believed he can’t read defenses and expected him to fail without his “blankie“.

Anyway, it doesn’t matter now and I’m not interested in another pointless Derrick debate. You responded to my post and out of courtesy, I responded to yours. We will always agree to disagree with your evaluation of Derrick‘s on-field play.
I would challenge you to find a post of mine that said Derrick would fail because of the Hopkins trade.
 
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