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Gil Brandt on 2014 NFL Draft
- Thread starter Playoffs
- Start date
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
My mistake, fat-fingered the edit and deleted #9.
I was wondering if Lewan was involved in a homicide or something this weekend and I missed it.
Goatcheese
Texan
People who think Manziel is the best player in this draft make me question if they just don't know anything about player evaluation, or if they have no integrity and just want page hits.
He's coming from Sumlin's system. Sumlin, remember that guy and his high flying offense from his days in Houston? You know, the system that inflated Case Keenum to a 5600 yards per season QB? I'm as skeptical of a QB coming out of Sumlin's school as I am one who played for Mike Leach.
He's coming from Sumlin's system. Sumlin, remember that guy and his high flying offense from his days in Houston? You know, the system that inflated Case Keenum to a 5600 yards per season QB? I'm as skeptical of a QB coming out of Sumlin's school as I am one who played for Mike Leach.
Skipped #29?
Yes because if their evaluation is different from yours they must not know anything.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
The Tom Savage stuff is just beyond me. Comes off as just going for broke on a guy and hoping you nail it so everyone will think you're a genius.
yep!
beerlover
Hall of Fame
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
As long as OB+Smith nail it, I don't care.
But.
I personally wouldn't draft the guy before the 5th round.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Sorry, fixed.
He's got at least 25 high-level representatives from teams fooled into personal visits/workouts... so many he's turning teams away.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
How are guys moving up and down the board with nothing going on? I like gil and his top 100 players are pretty good,but lately he's been way off. R
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Tape, Smoke, and Mirrors.
First off, remember that the "boards" we're hearing about are the MEDIA Boards. People might not be moving up and down the Team's boards at all. The MEDIA boards, however, are an attempt by the media to figure out how the teams rank guys. And no two teams rank the guys the same way.
So every time a media guy talks to a different scout or representative from a team, they're going to get a different story and a different ranking.
And also... remember... the teams think they know which guys are the best guys and they want to confuse other people as to who those guys are and how they have them rated. So they're going to be lying and cheating and deceiving.
So if the media guy in question is the kind of media guy who's going through tape and trying to be their own scout, they're trying to create their own big-board based on their own judgments after looking at all these guys tape and frankly, they don't have enough time to do it all. So every time they hear about someone new or look at a new game, their ratings are going to change.
If the media guy in question is the kind of media guy who's going through his contacts to try to get a feel about how teams perceive their weaknesses and needs and how they perceive the different players as fits, then his board is going to change depending on who he last spoke to.
But ultimately there are 32 completely different, scheme-dependent boards out there that are the only ones that really matter. There's not a single board that really indicated the best player available.
Who did you think was the best player in the 2011 draft?
Looking back, with hindsight, who turned out to be the best player in that draft? What system did he come from?
Yes because if their evaluation is different from yours they must not know anything.
Am I missing something here? It's not ok for people to think Manziel is anything less than the best player in this draft... But it's ok for people to think Tom Savage doesn't belong in the top 50.
Hervoyel
BUENO!
Nope. Sounds like you got it to me. That's almost exactly how the Johnny Love works around these parts.
It's VY all over again.
Has nothing to do with Johnny love. I have said repeatedly I wouldn't draft him 1.1. But I can see where people think he is the best Player in this draft. He has everything you look for in a QB other than prototypical size. In fact if JF bad prototypical size there wouldn't be any question where he would go in this draft. In a draft where EVERYONE has warts, he along with several other players could easily be first on many big boards. Not to mention he plays the most important position in the game.
Savage on the other hand has very little going for him. To project him as a top 40 player is reaching BIGTIME. I've also never said "if you don't agree with me you must not know anything about evaluating players". There is a difference in saying that and saying people must be reaching on a guy hoping to get lucky to look smart.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
Not sure why you quoted me. I've been very vocal on this board about not being all that high on Manziel.
I'm critical of the Savage stuff because I watched him in college. He wasn't that great. Played well his last year, but top 50? Absolutely not. JMO.
I haven't watched any of his games.
Give me your opinion of his strength/weaknesses and room/chances for growth and improvement.
aussie_texan
Veteran
how do you compare savage to say mettenberger??
I think they both have "big" arms. Mettenberger is more athletic (& he's Schaub like), & has a better feel for the pass rush. He's pretty raw working from the pocket & I don't believe he gets to his third read as part of his progression. If he finds a third receiver, I think that's more of a function of him extending the play.
Savage displays a better understanding of ball placement. Even though Savage has played less than Mattenberger over the last 3 years, he appears to work through his progressions better, finding his second & third receivers "easier." IMO, Savage is more comfortable in the pocket (maybe why he "holds the ball too long")... I like the head, shoulder, & pump fakes you see from him while he's working the pocket. He is a pure pocket passer. He's consistently looking downfield, by the time he sees the pass rush, it's beyond his athletic ability to keep the play alive, so maybe that makes him look less athletic than he is....... either way, he's going to struggle extending plays. He's probably as good as anyone getting the most out of a play when everything is working right.
aussie_texan
Veteran
i agree with everything you said expect that mett is more athletic. i think savage has pretty decent movement and could even scramble for short yardage but mett is like a statue.
where do you rank according to round these two?
I see these guys as starter material. I can see either of them starting day 1, depending on Mett's health (knee) & I could be way wrong on Savage as he doesn't have a lot of history of actually playing in college. something like 17 games total.
So "grade" wise, I'm thinking late first, early second. I know most won't agree with that on Savage, but for me the only reason I think he should be lower is that he's only played 17 games, so you really don't know. But measurables & what I saw in games.... & I think OB likes him (so I'm reading a lot into that).
But I still think this is a strong QB class other than the no elite prospect thing. And there's a lot of defensive talent out there. I'd want to take a QB in the 2nd, but if there are three of "my guys" there at 2-1, I'd probably take a chance on one of them being there at 3-1 or I'd feel confident enough that I'd be able to trade back into the 2nd if I had to.
Goatcheese
Texan
It's been forever, but I seem to remember my man crush being Von Miller and Dareus.
If you mean QBs, I wasn't very high on that class. Gabbert came from a spread offense, but he wasn't especially productive in it. He had very good physical tools, but he was a risk taker, lacked pocket awareness, had an ugly deep ball (not just innacurate, ugly) and made a lot of poor decisions. Newton had all the physical tools and threw a beautiful ball, but there were big questions about his ability to read a defense and go through his progressions. He struggled to hit receivers in tight coverage, and had poor footwork.
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Best player... QB or no.
I think Cam Newton is clearly the best player out of that draft (so far).
& my point is..... what kind of offense did Cam Newton run at Auburn? He was still the best prospect from that draft. People want to look at Manziel's offense or Cam's & hold it against them, when it has little to do with anything.
Coaches & Scouts are trying to figure out what they can get these kids to do in the future. Of course they're basing it on what they've done in the past, but because Manziel ran a spread doesn't mean he can't run a pro style offense. It's not like there's a college out there that will change their offensive system because of what they're QB can & can't do. They may dial it up or scale it back, but Art Briles is running an Air Raid spread offense.
Charlie Strong didn't decide to run a pro style offense because he had Bridgewater. He'll most likely be running the same system next season regardless.
Cam Newton didn't run anything that resembled a pro offense at Auburn, but he ran Carolina's offense from day 1. Joe Flacco ran a spread offense in the FCS, but started for the Ravens, from day 1.
Not that I think Manziel is the best player in the draft, just saying the fact that he ran a spread offense doesn't mean that he wasn't.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
Wait what? Umm....
J.J. Watt
Patrick Peterson
A.J. Green
Tyron Smith
Robert Quinn
Cameron Jordan
If given the opportunity, I'd take Cam over any of those players.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
So you would take a guy (Newton) with a career 59.8 completion percentage and 42 INT's over...
J.J. Watt - a two-time All-Pro who has 36.5 career sacks and won Defensive Player of the Year in his second season
Patrick Peterson - a two-time All-Pro with 4 career non-offensive TD's, 12 INT's, and 43 pass breakups who is considered one of the top lockdown CB's in the game
A.J. Green - a two-time All-Pro with 260 receptions for 3833 yards and 29 TD's
Tyron Smith - a 2013 All-Pro who is considered one of the best upcoming LT's in the game
Robert Quinn - a 2013 All-Pro who has 34.5 career sacks
Von Miller - a two-time All-Pro with 35.0 career sacks
Yes.
We went 2-14 with that guy.
... yeah.
He's handicapped by the guy throwing him the ball.
If I also had Tony Romo?
yup.
Steven Jackson was glad to leave that team. Adding Robert Quinn probably didn't make him 2nd guess himself.
We saw that team without the general. Von Miller didn't make them the Super Bowl contender they are now. Remove him from that team... they're still the AFC Favorite.
Carolina won their division, which includes Drew Brees & Matty Ice, largely (not totally) due to Cam Newton.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
I'll start by saying that the reason he is popular among analysts is because he has prototypical size (6-4, 230). In a draft where very few QB's have size, I'm not the least surprised to see people overrating a guy who does. He also has a very strong arm.
So right there we have two of the most overrated attributes (arm strength and size) that people look for in a QB. Blaine Gabbert and Jamarcus Russell had both of these attributes and that was the main reason for their rise up the draft boards (not their play on the field). Very similar to Savage, IMO. When a guy shoots up the board 3 months after the season is over, then you should be wary.
As for his play on the field, he has some mobility to move in the pocket but I would never label him as mobile. His pocket awareness is average and he tends to hold the ball too long. Also, while he's good at checking the ball down, he struggles to make quick decisions when under pressure. He doesn't have great accuracy or ball placement and he appears to be average at reading defenses. He also turned the ball over too often.
And lastly, production. This is a guy who completed 56.8% of his passes in his career and only threw 37 TD's to 19 INT's. He also did not perform well against top competition. Against the top 2 defenses in the ACC last year (Florida State and Virginia Tech) he completed 50.0% of his passes for 388 yards (6.9 ypa) with 1 TD and 2 INT's. In the bowl game against Bowling Green, he didn't play in the 2nd half due to injury and his freshman backup came in and finished the game with zero drop-off in production.
In conclusion, this is a guy who is overrated because his measureables match the prototype. Sure, draft him in the mid-rounds and sit him on the bench for 2-3 years and you might have something. But to even speak of drafting this guy in the 1st-2nd round and starting him early is beyond me.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
Carolina went 13-19 in Newton's first 2 years. Their turnaround this year was because of their defense. It had very little to do with Newton. He threw for 500 less yards this year and his team won 5 more games. But that's all him right?
You give him way too much credit and prop him up because he plays the QB position. What position he plays has nothing to do with him being the best player out of that draft, which was your original quote
"I think Cam Newton is clearly the best player out of that draft (so far)."
He's not. Maybe you meant the most important or something else, I don't know. But he's clearly not the best.
Also, A.J. Green is handicapped by Andy Dalton throwing him the ball? Then what does that say about Steve Smith? Green put up better numbers than Smith over the last 3 years.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
To add on to my point. Carolina went 12-4 this season.
Carolina finished this season ranked 2nd in Total Defense, 2nd in Scoring Defense, and 1st in Sacks.
Newton finished 28th in Passing Yards per Game, 16th in Completion %, 12th in TD's, and 16th in QB Rating.
Who was the main reason for their success?
To compare, in 2012 Carolina went 7-9.
Carolina finished the season 10th in Total Defense, 18th in Scoring Defense, and 16th in Sacks.
Newton finished 15th in Passing Yards per Game, 26th in Completion %, 21st in TD's, and 15th in QB Rating.
Newton's numbers are pretty similar. More yards, less completions and TD's, and basically the same QB rating. Carolina's defense was much worse in every category. I wonder why they were so much better the next year. Must have been Newton.....
The Most Important Player is important. I don't think he's saying that Newton is a better QB than Watt is a DT or Miller is a LB. What he's saying is that he's a QB (a good one right now), and that's more important than a good DT, DE, OT, or WR. So I agree with tk in that if there were a re-draft, Newton would still go #1. Because a QB will impact the game much more than any other position.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Which is great but is utterly at odds with his schtick on the top 3 QBs this draft.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
To add to WF's points, Cam Newton was rated 15th/42 QBs overall in 2013 by PFF (>25% teams snaps)...
But if you drill down, Newton was only rated 30th/42 QBs in passing. His pass rating fell from +1.9 in 2012 -- Peyton's was +51.9 in 2012 -- to -6.1 in 2013.
Newton wins as a running QB, where he was rated 1st/42 QBs in both years.
But if you drill down, Newton was only rated 30th/42 QBs in passing. His pass rating fell from +1.9 in 2012 -- Peyton's was +51.9 in 2012 -- to -6.1 in 2013.
Newton wins as a running QB, where he was rated 1st/42 QBs in both years.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
Agreed. However, he also said this...
"I think Cam Newton is clearly the best player out of that draft (so far)."
Which is just simply not true. There's 4-5 players from that class that are multiple time All-Pro's. Newton has never been close to All-Pro.
Other than I say only Manziel could possibly be that type of QB, but I think it's not very likely.
Just because a guy is a QB doesn't make him better than the best DT in the league. A franchise QB, pick one, any one... your definition, my definition, John McClain's definition.... you're not going to trade him for Jj Watt, or Bruce Smith, or Reggie White.
Now... Cam Newton, is he a franchise QB? I think so, some people may not. But especially with the benefit of hindsight, I believe more people would take Cam over Watt.
& I think I've been pretty clear on who I think the top two QBs in this draft are... and they are not thought to be likely for 1st round picks.
badboy
Hall of Fame
To be fair 2013: Pittsburgh 2958 yds 21 TDS
2012: No stats Arizona hired new coach with O not favoring Savage; transferred to Pitt
2011 Arizona: sat out due to NCAA rules
2010 injured early season 521 yds 2 TDs 3 INTs then transferred to Arizona as he lost starting job when healthy.
2009: player at Rutgers freshman: 2211 14 TDs 7 INTs
I thought Brandt was all about Manziel, who he has rated as his top prospect in this Draft ? He must be like John McClain, changes his ratings/mocks every week ?
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Brandt has Johnny Football as his top prospect and Clowney as his #2 prospect, but he has learned from talking to decisionmakers around the NFL that JdC is the consensus guy at the top.
You're not seeing a lot of NFL people predicting Texans will select Manziel 1-1.
bckey
All Pro
I like Johnny football a lot but I don't think the Texans will take him at #1 nor do I think he or any of the other qbs in this draft are worth the #1 pick. I will say this. Intelligence separates JF from VY. Their only similarities seem to be that they both came from big time Texas schools. I hope OB rebuilds the Texans from the trenches out starting with picking either Robinson or Clowney at #1 if no trade down is made.
I'm all for taking a qb later in the first if a trade down is made or one with the first pick on day 2.