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Football Outsiders -- 2013 Quarterbacks: True Sack Rate

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Football Outsiders -- 2013 Quarterbacks: True Sack Rate
Arguably, the worst play a quarterback can make is throwing an interception. However, there are high amounts of luck and randomness involved with the rate at which interceptions occur. Sometimes the pass was tipped by the intended receiver. Sometimes the quarterback gets hit as he's throwing. Then you have the dozens of awful passes each season that should have been intercepted, but were dropped by defenders (reminding us why they play defense).

There's another type of play with negative consequences that is a much better predictor of future quarterback performance. The sack is a more common event that carries far less variation than the myriad of possibilities that come after a pass leaves the quarterback's hand. On these plays, the whole problem is the ball never did come out, and if it did, then we're looking at a fumble too.

Yet in all my years of following the NFL, it always seems like the sacks and fumbles are ignored in favor of the interception when it comes to analysis of a quarterback's mistakes. The sack is almost like a litmus test for where a fan is in their understanding of the game. Usually you start out thinking it's all about the offensive line and protection, but the sack is actually very dependent on the quarterback...
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CloakNNNdagger said:
I can see what the point they're trying to make. But you've got to ask yourself if the QB is in a perfect storm, constantly under barrage due to terrible OL protection, mixed with no running game, and without any consistency of an "outlet" receiver........then the validity of this statement has to decrease markedly.
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But if you can compare QBs on same team it's clearer...

Terrelle Pryor... had a league-worst 10.23 percent sack rate. The Raiders were a mess at offensive line, but rookie Matt McGloin still managed a 2.77 percent sack rate (Manning territory) when he played. It's not like the Raiders magically blocked that much better for McGloin.
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As with most things, there are multiple contributing factors. QB is a big one.
 
Sometimes a QB needs to take a sack; too many things in play as with INT. I want to see the play before I blame QB for either. A sack costs a down, INT hands over the ball. No comparison
 
badboy said:
Sometimes a QB needs to take a sack; too many things in play as with INT. I want to see the play before I blame QB for either. A sack costs a down, INT hands over the ball. No comparison
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and in the overall course of the game, one sack may not amount to a hill of beans.
 
badboy said:
Sometimes a QB needs to take a sack; too many things in play as with INT. I want to see the play before I blame QB for either. A sack costs a down, INT hands over the ball. No comparison
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That's great on a small sample size. Once you hit large numbers it is just evasion.
 
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