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Final 4......

OptimisticTexan

Hall of Fame
Ok, let's get our thoughts in on this. Last 4 games for the teams involved and how everyone might finish up:

Patriots
10-2
Chiefs
@Bengals
Bills
Dolphins

Ravens
10-2
@Bills
Jets
@Browns
Steelers

Bills
9-3
Ravens
@Steelers
@Patriots
Jets

TEXANS
8-4
Broncos
@Titans
@Bucs
Titans

Chiefs
8-4
@Patriots
Broncos
@Bears
Chargers

Titans
7-5
@Raiders
TEXANS
Saints
At TEXANS
Steelers
7-5
@Cardinals
Bills
@Jets
Ravens

That's 7 teams for 6 spots. I really don't see any 6-6 team making the cut. So there's my group, rack and stack how you think this plays out. I just set the order according to record.
 
I'm seeing

Ravens
Texans
Chiefs
Pats
Bills
Steelers

I fully expect the Ravens, Texans and Chiefs to win out which would bring Chiefs and Texans to 12-4 and we beat the Chiefs. I actually expect Pats to lose to the Bills, they are a decent team that has surprised more than a few people and Pats are looking weak right now. If they don't then Pats will stay number 2 with a 13-5 record.

I think the Tits are going to get knocked out seeing as they play us twice and Saints once over the next 4 games. Just don't see them beating the Saints and if we win out then their playoff hopes are done. Steelers and Bills both have the Ravens and I expect both to lose to the Ravens so the "must win" game for both of them is the one they play against each other. Either way Tomlin deserves coach of the year, lose all your big name players in the off season and your franchise QB in the first week or two and still be in the running for the playoffs. That's just good coaching right there.
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
Don’t have time to get into too much, but I don’t think these last 4 for us are going to be the cakewalk we thought they were going to be.

Should beat Denver, but I think it could be a struggle after the big emotional game with the Pats last week. Let down game.

Tennessee is playing good football since Tannehill has taken over, and Henry is going to be a huge problem.

Then with Tampa Bay you have no idea what you’re going to get. They’re the 4th highest scoring team. Winston is a turnover machine, but they’ve got some big time receivers that should give the secondary the biggest test they’ve had all season.
 

Texansphan

All Pro
Texans should realize they have it in them to be a good team - they just need to bring the intensity for 60 minutes every game.
Looks to me like they are beginning to gel and more time together should improve on that.
Now if the injury bug is kind to us, we should have a squad that can do some good things the rest of the way.
 

Rich Schmidt

Myopicone
I think we split with Titans versus win out, so...

Ravens 14-2
Chiefs 12-4
Pats 12-4
Texans 11-5
Bills 12-4
Titans 9-7

Using my tiebreaks from playoff machine

If no stumbles, the #2 is quite possible, but Texans have not proven they are that consistent yet. Playoff machine said 3 way tie at 12-4 means Texans #2 and Pats/Bills play each other again. Was hoping Chiefs would go to beat the angry birds, but if I did it right, we would host Chiefs
 

thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
If no stumbles, the #2 is quite possible, but Texans have not proven they are that consistent yet.
I agree. I started this season thinking Bill will find a way to win 12 games. I'm still hoping, just not seeing it.

The offense had seemed to settle down. Hopefully Howard's mismanaged injury is the last we'll see.

Defense is finally "together" so let's hope the injury bug is done with us this season.

That said, I have no idea how this team will finish the next four games. But it doesn't really matter as long as they get in. I think we can do something special this year.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
I'm seeing

Ravens
Texans
Chiefs
Pats
Bills
Steelers

I fully expect the Ravens, Texans and Chiefs to win out which would bring Chiefs and Texans to 12-4 and we beat the Chiefs. I actually expect Pats to lose to the Bills, they are a decent team that has surprised more than a few people and Pats are looking weak right now. If they don't then Pats will stay number 2 with a 13-5 record.

I think the Tits are going to get knocked out seeing as they play us twice and Saints once over the next 4 games. Just don't see them beating the Saints and if we win out then their playoff hopes are done. Steelers and Bills both have the Ravens and I expect both to lose to the Ravens so the "must win" game for both of them is the one they play against each other. Either way Tomlin deserves coach of the year, lose all your big name players in the off season and your franchise QB in the first week or two and still be in the running for the playoffs. That's just good coaching right there.
I love this scenario!!! Hope it happens.

I'd feel better about the Texans winning out if we played the Titans at home first.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Don’t have time to get into too much, but I don’t think these last 4 for us are going to be the cakewalk we thought they were going to be.

Should beat Denver, but I think it could be a struggle after the big emotional game with the Pats last week. Let down game.

Tennessee is playing good football since Tannehill has taken over, and Henry is going to be a huge problem.

Then with Tampa Bay you have no idea what you’re going to get. They’re the 4th highest scoring team. Winston is a turnover machine, but they’ve got some big time receivers that should give the secondary the biggest test they’ve had all season.
Overplaying the "let down" angle of the Denver game...I think we'll start off slow..... like we typically do, but by the 3rd qtr, it won't be a game. Big game from Hyde.

As far as the Tennessee game...Henry doesn't scare me at all. He was Leonard Fournette before Leonard Fournette entered the league. Save for a few explosive games a year, he doesn't do a whole lot if you get him running parallel or having to cut close to the LOS. Tanny is actually somewhat worrisome, but then i think who he's throwing to & then i stop worrying about him too. They are 5-1 with him but they should've lost that KC game, ST missed 2 extra points and blew a critical FG late in that game that would've effectively sealed it. Tanny didn't even throw for 200 yds in.

I'm actually with you regarding Tampa Bay, They scare me more than any of the other 3 games b/c they can score & Arians loves to push it downfield & we already know who they'll be trying to target...Hargreaves.

4-0, 3-1 easy down the stretch imo. Injuries could change that though.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
Overplaying the "let down" angle of the Denver game...I think we'll start off slow..... like we typically do, but by the 3rd qtr, it won't be a game. Big game from Hyde.

As far as the Tennessee game...Henry doesn't scare me at all. He was Leonard Fournette before Leonard Fournette entered the league. Save for a few explosive games a year, he doesn't do a whole lot if you get him running parallel or having to cut close to the LOS. Tanny is actually somewhat worrisome, but then i think who he's throwing to & then i stop worrying about him too. They are 5-1 with him but they should've lost that KC game, ST missed 2 extra points and blew a critical FG late in that game that would've effectively sealed it. Tanny didn't even throw for 200 yds in.

I'm actually with you regarding Tampa Bay, They scare me more than any of the other 3 games b/c they can score & Arians loves to push it downfield & we already know who they'll be trying to target...Hargreaves.

4-0, 3-1 easy down the stretch imo. Injuries could change that though.
My biggest worry irt Henry is that our secondary doesn't tackle well. I'm not that confident slowing him down as much as you are.
 

Seegara

Guitar Picker, Dog Lover, Woodworker
As it looks right now, we split with the Tit-Cans to go 3-1 down the stretch. The Crows win out. The Sioux Chiefs are denied a 2nd playoff game. The Expatriots fail to get a SB berth.
 

Double Barrel

Moderator
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Texans are as liable to go 1-3 as they are 4-0
Yep. Our cynicism is in alignment. :ahhaha:

Hope vs. expectations. Head vs. heart.

They should completely dominate the Broncos. It think this game will continue to tell us a lot about this team, especially if they truly have finally turned the page and reached a new level.

Titans twice could be tough. Division opponents can always be potentially competitive, and they are playing good ball right now.

Not sure what to think about the Bucs. I haven't seen a whole lot of press on them considering the rebuild.
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
Overplaying the "let down" angle of the Denver game...I think we'll start off slow..... like we typically do, but by the 3rd qtr, it won't be a game. Big game from Hyde.

As far as the Tennessee game...Henry doesn't scare me at all. He was Leonard Fournette before Leonard Fournette entered the league. Save for a few explosive games a year, he doesn't do a whole lot if you get him running parallel or having to cut close to the LOS. Tanny is actually somewhat worrisome, but then i think who he's throwing to & then i stop worrying about him too. They are 5-1 with him but they should've lost that KC game, ST missed 2 extra points and blew a critical FG late in that game that would've effectively sealed it. Tanny didn't even throw for 200 yds in.

I'm actually with you regarding Tampa Bay, They scare me more than any of the other 3 games b/c they can score & Arians loves to push it downfield & we already know who they'll be trying to target...Hargreaves.

4-0, 3-1 easy down the stretch imo. Injuries could change that though.
Oh, I think they'll eventually take Denver down too, I just think it's going to be a closer game than we expected for most of it.

Right on with Tampa.

Stopping Henry? We'll see. Lately they haven't been very effective against the run, giving up an average of 192 yards per the last 3 games. They also have the 4th most missed tackles this year. And say what you want about Tannehill, dude's been ballin'. If we're putting stock in a win over KC, well, they beat them too.

I expect the Texans to come out of these last 4 in good shape, I just don't think they'll be the cakewalk we all thought.
 

Rich Schmidt

Myopicone
I think the running game can be stopped when that is RACs mission. Against the Colts he played seven man front and against the Pats he had a lot of CB out there to stop the passing games. Against less talented passing game, he can use the "thicker" boys up front, BMAC, Zach and Gipson, Reid is looking to be great against the pass, but his bum shoulder is a liability against the run. So I do think we beat the Titans. Rewatching some of their games, the KC game was gifted and event the Colts missed 3 field goals with one going back for 6. So they are not dominating, but Vrabel does have them playing hard for 60 minutes. Pretty sure against the Broncos and Titans they will flip it and take away the run forcing the pass. TB will probably have an exotic plan with 11 CB's to get three picks
 

banned1976

American
I agree. I started this season thinking Bill will find a way to win 12 games. I'm still hoping, just not seeing it.

The offense had seemed to settle down. Hopefully Howard's mismanaged injury is the last we'll see.

Defense is finally "together" so let's hope the injury bug is done with us this season.

That said, I have no idea how this team will finish the next four games. But it doesn't really matter as long as they get in. I think we can do something special this year.
I still lack faith in them doing much in the playoffs. I’m glad they finally beat the Patriots but I’ve seen the Patriots lay a few eggs in the regular season during their championship years against even mediocre teams.
 

disaacks3

Moderator
Staff member
We have the talent to finish out 4-0, but I expect to split the Titans series, leaving us at 3-1 (11-5).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

OptimisticTexan

Hall of Fame
I'm watching this game with the Broncos as a solid barometer as to what this team does next. If they come into this game like they won their SB b/c they finally beat the Patriots.....it'll set them back and they could wind up at 2-2.

If they approach the Broncos game with their mind clear, focused and a goal of pushing for a 2 seed....and OB opens his offense, then the talent is there to go 4-0.

I could've gone with the Titans game next week as the primary barometer but they will not have beaten the Patriots the week before. So, I'm going to lean on the Broncos game at home as being the actual confidence booster to finish the season 4-0.

Go Texans.....finish strong!!!!
 
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Porky

Hall of Fame
Are we rooting for the Chiefs or Pats this Sunday? I can see where it might benefit us on either side, but I'm actually thinking we may be better off if the Pats win.
 

Porky

Hall of Fame
Pats need to lose because then that will allow the Texans to be closer to the 2nd seed.
I get that and it's a valid point, but the Chiefs have an identical 8-4 record as the Texans. Seems to me that it's a long-shot to catch the Pats. Not impossible but Texans need to finish 4-0 to have a real good shot and Texans being Texans we can be fairly well assured they will drop at least one and possibly 2 games.

And the Pats are just as likely to finish 4-0 as 2-2. Thinking more realistically we're in a battle for positioning with the Chiefs.

If I knew for sure that Texans are going 4-0, yes I'd root for the Chiefs. If we are 3-1, or especially if we finish 2-2, it's more advantageous to see the Pats win.

Nostradamus I ain't!
 
I get that and it's a valid point, but the Chiefs have an identical 8-4 record as the Texans. Seems to me that it's a long-shot to catch the Pats. Not impossible but Texans need to finish 4-0 to have a real good shot and Texans being Texans we can be fairly well assured they will drop at least one and possibly 2 games.

And the Pats are just as likely to finish 4-0 as 2-2. Thinking more realistically we're in a battle for positioning with the Chiefs.

If I knew for sure that Texans are going 4-0, yes I'd root for the Chiefs. If we are 3-1, or especially if we finish 2-2, it's more advantageous to see the Pats win.

Nostradamus I ain't!
We hold a win over the Chiefs though so that’s puts us at a higher seed unless we just totally drop the ball over the next 4 games. If Pats beat the Chiefs they are pretty much a lock for 2nd seed, if Chiefs beat the Pats there is a shot, long as it maybe, we could get the 2nd seed.
 

powda

No Sally, we are not an effective team.
Which is far better than to just be sitting at 9-7 and know you have won enough to screw you in the draft by not enough to actually have a chance in the playoffs.
But is that where we are? Good enough to make the playoffs but no chance at an AFC championship game or sb?
 

OptimisticTexan

Hall of Fame
But is that where we are? Good enough to make the playoffs but no chance at an AFC championship game or sb?
This weeks test....will there be any let down after beating the Patriots. Next weeks test, can the Texans win a tough game on the road in Tennessee. Go 2-0 during this period and they'll finish the season 12-4 with a chance at the 2 seed.

They'd need the Patriots to lose to KC and Buffalo. The Bills would need to lose to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. This is the Texans path to the 2 seed, first round bye and the opportunity to host a second round game at home. The bye week could be pivotal in helping this team get healthy before their first playoff game of the 2019 season.
 
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thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
it's more advantageous to see the Pats win.
What Bizarro planet are you from?

Never, never root for the empire except extreme rare cases.

Not a big enough difference in the 3 & 4 seed to make a difference. Then again 3 seed would mean we go to NE/KC in the Divisional round. 4th seed goes to Baltimore. I don't want to see Baltimore until the AFCCG if at all.

Might be one of those rare cases.

For now I'd say we root for KC. Assume we win out until we lose.
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
If I knew for sure that Texans are going 4-0, yes I'd root for the Chiefs. If we are 3-1, or especially if we finish 2-2, it's more advantageous to see the Pats win.
Except you don't know how it's going to play out. The only chance the Texans have at a bye is if the Pats lose at least 2. Yes, other things have to happen as well, but you have zero chance if the Pats don't lose 2. And having a bye to the next round is way more advantageous than not having it.

The chances are low (currently 5%, goes up to 13% with Texans and KC win this week), but saying it's more advantageous not to have a shot at the 2 seed doesn't make much sense.
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
Overplaying the "let down" angle of the Denver game...I think we'll start off slow..... like we typically do, but by the 3rd qtr, it won't be a game.
Oh, I think they'll eventually take Denver down too, I just think it's going to be a closer game than we expected for most of it.
:toropalm:
Tennessee is playing good football since Tannehill has taken over, and Henry is going to be a huge problem.

Then with Tampa Bay you have no idea what you’re going to get. They’re the 4th highest scoring team. Winston is a turnover machine, but they’ve got some big time receivers that should give the secondary the biggest test they’ve had all season.
Ain't the cakewalk we thought.
 

Seegara

Guitar Picker, Dog Lover, Woodworker
Who has the tiebreaker if the Texans & Tacks split and finish with equal records?
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
Before, we would just stack the box with Henry and Mariota. They now have a qb who can pass. lol
Right now Tannehill is playing at a higher level for a longer period of time than WatJICson has this season. He's played well the last 4 weeks. Inconvienient truth.

Texans are going to have to put up 27 0r more to beat the Tacks. Can they do this? Tell me which WAtJICson shows up. I think WAtJICson will play well.
 

thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Who has the tiebreaker if the Texans & Tacks split and finish with equal records?
I'm going to take a wild guess.

Right now, the Texans are in 1st place of the AFCSouth. They are 8-5. The Titans are also 8-5. If they were to finish with the same record (10-6) splitting the head to head matchup against each other, I would imagine the Texans would still hold 1st place in the AFC South.

We obviously own the tie breaker now. If we split the head to head...
 
How many times have we played Henry?
Good question. Henry's first two seasons he was playing behind starter DeMarco Murray. Last year was his first season as the starting back and it was not going well to begin with. In week 2 against Houston, he ran for 56 yards on 18 carries. Not bad but not great. But his production continued to stall and word around Nashville was that the team was shopping him for a trade before the deadline. That didn't happen but something interesting did. Sometime after the second Houston meeting in Week 12 (only 30 yards on 8 carries, not even the Titans leader that day) and the subsequent Jets game (only 40 yards on 10 carries), Henry met with Titans legend Eddie George for a "come to Jesus" meeting about Henry's technique. Something clicked because Henry ran for 238 yards against the Jags in week 14, 170 yards against the Giants in week 15, 84 yards against Washington in week 16, and 93 yards against the Colts in week 17 (the only loss of those games).

This season, Henry has pretty much picked up where he left off, rushing for 1243 yards, a shade behind Nick Chubb in an active battle for the rushing title. He's a completely different runner now, basically either running over people, dragging them or stiff arming them on the way to the end zone. At his size and strength, you do not want to be on the other end of him coming at you.

If I were the Houston coaching staff, I'd ignore last year's film against Houston and concentrate on everything since that Jags game. But right now, the only thing slowing Henry down is a bad hammy which is keeping him from 100% effectiveness (he still rushed for 103 yards against Oakland before getting pulled in the 4th quarter).
 
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Speedy

Yeller Dweller
He's a completely different runner now, basically either running over people, dragging them or stiff arming them on the way to the end zone. At his size and strength, you do not want to be on the other end of him coming at you.
Should be fun against a team where tackling doesn't appear to be too high on their priority list.
 


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