FantasyFirstRoundStrategy

[thunderkyss]

If you've spent any time on this board at all, you know I don't know what I'm talking about (but I think I do) & I'm a homer. Bad combination for FF. I'm the guy you want in your league, because I'm easy money.

Well..... something has got to change. One of those things, is that I have no strategy. For instance, on draft day I've got my lists that I've accrued from various websites, maybe a mock draft or two. When my time comes I look at the top of my lists, narrow it down to three or four of the best available & take the guy I like most.

Needless to say, that hasn't worked very well for me.

So I'm asking for help. & I'm going way back to the beginning. Draft spot. Do you care what pick you get? We do the zig-zag, snake draft. We pick numbers out of a hat to determine the draft order, then round one we go from 1 to 10, round two we go from 10 to 1, then back & forth all the way through.

I personally would rather have the 4, 5, 6 pick, because my picks are always relatively close to each other. Does that make sense, or is there a good reason for wanting that 1st pick, or the 10th pick?

Quarterback... how important is the QB position to you? I'll grab a list something like this In my mind, any one of those guys from 1 through 12 can have a great season in 2013. Any one of the top 12 can have the best year. Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Peyton & Brady... are my "safe" bets. I feel as long as I get one of those 4, I'm good. If I miss & have to settle for one of those top 12, it's not the end of the world, but I'd want to hedge my bets & get two out of that top 12 (where if I had one of the 4, my second QB would be a dark horse (Carson Palmer in Arizona maybe)).

Is that how you look at it?

 

[Dutchrudder]

It really depends on the league scoring settings and the roster lineup. I play in 3 steady leagues a year with friends and coworkers, and all 3 are different. Two are PPR, one doesn't have a flex, two have 6 point passing TDs, another has -2 for all turnovers, one gives points to individual players for return stats. It gets a bit daunting to keep them all straight come draft time, but it does make a big difference in draft values. I tend to prefer getting my QB and RB1 in the first two rounds, but sometimes it just doesn't work out. After that I generally go WR/RB, WR/RB, WR.

In any case, I tend to earmark specific players as potential breakouts compared to their value and ADP leading up to each draft. Last year I won two different leagues with the same 1st and 2nd round picks in Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson. I felt like both of those guys were great value for their draft positions, early 1st and late 2nd. Peterson was a risk, but I was willing to take a chance on him, and it paid off.

Other guys I had earmarked for 3rd and later, but didn't get all of them were Reggie Wayne, Antonio Brown, AJ Green, VJax, Colston, etc etc. I prefer to get WRs in the middle rounds because they are a dime a dozen to me. Their production isn't nearly as consistent as RBs, and there are always flukey guys that come out of nowhere each season. I prefer #1 WRs as well, and try not to deal with guys that are "supposed to take that next step" according to analysts. Also, a lot of these guys were undervalued due to change on the team's makeup, and I love it when people take rookies over proven players like the ones listed above. Vjax leaves SD and becomes a 6th round pick? C'mon! I love it when stuff like that happens and they just fall in my lap. Reggie Wayne was severely undervalued due to Peyton leaving, yet he still had a great season. I think I got him in the 7-9th in two leagues.

On the other hand I like to blackball players from my draft sheet due to injury or overhyping. Last year guys like Gronkowski, Newton, Fitzgerald, Vick, Gore, Philly WRs, McFadden, Matthews and the Dallas Cowboys were all removed from my lists. I didn't want any part of them in the 1st or 2nd cause I thought they were all overvalued. In Vinny's league I passed on several of those guys in favor of proven consistent producers like Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham. Jimmy got hurt down the stretch and really cost me in the playoffs, but for the majority of the season they were consistent.

So I guess that's my main advice, go with consistent producers over shooting for the moon with injury prone players. Don't go by someone else's list alone, edit it, cross off players you don't want or think are too risky, and go with what you think. Its always way more fun to win with your own plans working than someone else's rankings anyways.

Follow the league and look for obvious over/under-valuing of guys. For instance, this year I expect all the Denver receivers to be overvalued due to Peyton being there, but there is just too much talent on that team for the ball to get around IMO. Thomas and Welker are gonna be 2nd/3rd round picks, and I just don't see them producing as such. On the list you linked, Crabtree is rated as their #9 WR, and I would avoid that until at least the 6th round. There are a dozen guys below him I would rather have. I expect Torrey Smith is going to be severely undervalued this year after Boldin left, and Flacco has been unleashed. Antonio Brown is going to get a lot more attention now that Wallace is gone, and he's a returnman, so I will definitely be targeting him in the 6-8 rounds. Deandre Hopkins probably won't be a sleeper in Houston-centric FF leagues, but around the country many won't think to take him before the 7th or so, and he could wind up being a good flyer.

 

[The Pencil Neck]

It all depends on the league as to how I'm going to approach the draft and which players are going to be more highly valued.

When it comes to picking, I really don't care where I am. I am a homer. I try to pick up as many of the Texans players as I can.

BUT.

My approach is that... the draft isn't that relevant. I've made it to the Championship game in leagues where I didn't even finish with more than 1 or 2 of the guys I originally drafted. My approach is to keep track of which players seem to be having a breakout season but weren't drafted, and then nab them. My approach is also to drop guys who aren't getting me much.

So I'm one of those guys who finishes the season having made a zillion moves and it's rare that I don't at least make the playoffs.

 

[powda]

My approach is that... the draft isn't that relevant.

I think if you coupled your ability to pick up good waiver selections with a more serious draft approach you might domminate.

 

[thunderkyss]

My approach is to keep track of which players seem to be having a breakout season but weren't drafted, and then nab them. My approach is also to drop guys who aren't getting me much.

I could definitely do better in this department. I tend to hold on to guys too long, expecting them to break out later in the season. I used to always draft Frank Gore... never rewarded. Now, he's a steady producer & I can't get him if my life depended on it.

I also tend to pick up a guy who looks like he's about to flash..... then he putters away into anonymity.

 

[ObsiWan]

I could definitely do better in this department. I tend to hold on to guys too long, expecting them to break out later in the season. I used to always draft Frank Gore... never rewarded. Now, he's a steady producer & I can't get him if my life depended on it.

I also tend to pick up a guy who looks like he's about to flash..... then he putters away into anonymity.

Yeah, I do too. BUT... I've usually found one or two guys to carry my team. I picked Schaub in '09 and everyone looked at me crazy. That was one of his banner years. The next year, in 2010, I picked Arian Foster in the 3rd round. Again, I got crazy looks because everyone figured he should have been a 5th/6rd backup RB at best. He led the league in rushing. In 2011, Drew Brees carried me.

My downfall this past season was having too many Texans (yes, I'm that much of a homer) on my team. Last year I had Schaub, O.D., K.W., and A.J. (Foster went #2 overall). So my team sucked.

What do you guys think about drafting WRs vs. RBs??

 

[powda]

What do you guys think about drafting WRs vs. RBs??

Its easier to find productive wrs because so many teams air it out and use 3-4 wr sets. Good rbs are harder to find and tend to get more scoring opportunities. Short of calvin Johnson and other exceptions I place a far higher value on rbs even in ppr leagues. Our league format is 2 rbs and a flex where I also use all rbs...it's money to fill those spots with high rb picks.Qb is my only other priority...all other sports are secondary for me.

 

[Lucky]

Quarterback... how important is the QB position to you?

I think it's becoming increasingly important. I waited until the mid rounds to take Rivers and Flacco and they killed me. I switched over to waiver wire pickup Kaerpernick late and went on a 5 game win streak. But, it was too little, too late to make the playoffs. I won't wait that long to address QB this year.

 

[b0ng]

I think it's becoming increasingly important. I waited until the mid rounds to take Rivers and Flacco and they killed me. I switched over to waiver wire pickup Kaerpernick late and went on a 5 game win streak. But, it was too little, too late to make the playoffs. I won't wait that long to address QB this year.

Scoring dependent of course, but after the top few guys the drop off in overall points generated by QB's is not very significant. If you can get beefy point totals from say 2 WR's or 2 RB's and you get a QB that you think might have a good year in say the 3rd or 4th it's not a terrible strategy. Alternatively, I've gone with Rodgers my last two years in the first round and it's been pretty good the last couple of years.

I think the overall strategy you need to go with is being good in all of the rounds and draft from a standpoint of what can get you the most points with what you can put on the field at once.

 

[dc_txtech]

Last year I won two different leagues with the same 1st and 2nd round picks in Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson. I felt like both of those guys were great value for their draft positions, early 1st and late 2nd. Peterson was a risk, but I was willing to take a chance on him, and it paid off.

I would probably take him in the fourth too, but only if other options were not available. I personally don't like to deal with injured guys if I can avoid it. He hasn't even played in the preseason yet, so I don't know when he will be playing in the regular season. He's a risk, and I would prefer someone else take him.

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=93959


Guess you had a change of heart?

 

[Dutchrudder]

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=93959


Guess you had a change of heart?

Yep. I had the luxury of drafting both of those leagues the day before the first game, and by then it was pretty well expected AP would be playing in the first week or at least the second. I posted a bit more about the draft further down that thread, and given the run on RBs in the 2nd round, I didn't have too many great options to choose from.

I actually picked him 1st pick of the 3rd in one league, and just 3 spots from the end of the 2nd in the other. I wasn't exactly thrilled with the pick at the time, it was boom or bust for sure. Knowing that my other potential picks were Gore, Richardson, Doug Martin, Shonn Greene, Darren Sproles, Stevan Ridley and Willis MacGahee makes me feel good. It came down to AP, Trich and Martin in that one league, all of which would have been good picks, but I prefer established vets over rookies.

 

[Brandon420tx]

Just don't go QB in the first and TE in the second like I did

 

[thunderkyss]

Ok..... so I'm looking at ADP, this particular site Has Calvin Johnson & Drew Brees going at my spots. 8 & 13 in the first two rounds.

These two will probably be among the leaders of my league when it's all said & done, but Trent Richardson is sitting there at 8 & Matt Forte is sitting there at 13.

Demarco Murray
Monte Ball
Ahmad Bradshaw
Calvin Johnson
Roddy White
Vernon Davis
Jermichael Finley
Drew Brees
Tony Romo
Joe Flacco


I'd be happy with that draft, but I'd be worried about my RBs every week. Or I could take Cj in the first, Forte in the second then get Stafford in the 5th, or Romo in the 7th.



I think I answered my own question.

 

[Playoffs]

What's your league's scoring system? Basic? Performance? PPR? Flex? The specifics of your scoring system will significantly dictate how you draft.

 

[thunderkyss]

Passing Tds 3 points, 14 points for 4, 5 thereafter
Passing yards .1 every 2 yards, +3 for 300 yards
2 points for 2 point conversions

Rushing Tds 6 points, +2 if more than 50 yards,
Rushing yards .1 each, +3 for 150
Rushing attempts 3 for every 25
2 points for 2 point conversions

Receiving Tds 6 points, +2 if more than 50 yards,
Receiving yards .1 each, +3 for 120
Receptions +1 for 7, +1 thereafter
2 points for 2 point conversions

 

[Playoffs]

So 1 point for each 20 yards passing, 1 point for each 10 yards rushing/receiving, 3 for pass TDs.

What is this?

Passing Tds 3 points, 14 points for 4, 5 thereafter

And who do you start? QB 2RBs 2WRs TE K D, or is there a flex(RB/WR/TE) or 3WRs or 2QBs ... anything like that?

 

[TexansSeminole]

Get your RBs and WRs early on, guys you won't be worried about starting even if they have an injury. Basic advice, but best thing I can do.

 

[thunderkyss]

So 1 point for each 20 yards passing, 1 point for each 10 yards rushing/receiving, 3 for pass TDs.

What is this?


And who do you start? QB 2RBs 2WRs TE K D, or is there a flex(RB/WR/TE) or 3WRs or 2QBs ... anything like that?

3 points for every passing TD
+14 points for 4 passing TDs
5 points for every passing TD after 4 (on 5th, 6th, & 7th passing TD the player gets 5 points instead of 3)

we start
QB
1 RBs
2 WRs
2 Flex
K
Def

 

[Texanmike02]

I have a spreadsheet that I built to draft for me. I can send it to you if you want (as long as we don't play in a league together). But I will give you a basic gist of how I draft. I started doing it several years ago (and then stopped playing until last year I started again) and this thing has been money. The most important thing to do is rank players correctly AND have accurate projections. Obviously this is the most difficult thing but I think the biggest problem people have on draft day is adjusting to the draft.

Everyone has a philosophy on drafting. Draft RBs early, draft QB's later... etc. They are all hit and miss. Draft based on opportunity cost and nothing else.

To get ready to do this you need to establish values for your players. Usually I will gather 5-6 cheat sheets, weigh and average them and then make adjustments based on where I think errors are.

Once you do that you need to set up a need coefficient. I am in a league that plays 1 QB 2 RBs 2WRs 1K 1DEF and then a WR/RB and a WR/RB/TE.

Assuming that every team needs 1 QB and 1 backup QB I will use 1 (for a starter) and .5 for a backup so the QB coefficient is 1.5. It is more difficult for WR's because every team will start 2WRs but can start up to 4. To deal with that I have all WRs ranked with a coefficient of 3 (2 starters and 2 backups) and I have the same thing for RBs. WR/RB/TEs also have a second column in which they are all dumped into one pool. In that pool WR/RB have a coefficient of 3 and TEs have a coefficient of .75 (Since TE isn't a mandatory position I don't even think every team will draft one of them). K/DEF have a coefficient of 1.

The coefficient changes as people draft. If they draft a starter I will deduct 1 point. If they draft a backup that .5 points comes off of the board. Every team starts off with a total coefficient of 13.25 (this year).

You wind up with a board that looks like this:
PLAYER 1
QB 1.5
WR 3
RB 3
WR/RB 3
TE .75
K 1
D 1

Take the number in the second column and divide it into the total of the coefficients to get the likelihood that that person drafts that position. That is done for each person left to draft between you and your next pick and then you total the numbers for each position to get how many players should be taken. I zero out the coefficients for K/D in the first 5 rounds because I have never seen anyone take a player that early and I round anything more than .3 up to the next whole number.

So if I am drafting now and I have a pick in 5 more picks I will wind up with what I call "likely picks" between now and my 5 picks for each position.

I also "worst case" for each pick which is just the number of picks between mine and the next one.

I have all players ranked in total number of points I think they will score by position and I have a link to my first worksheet that shows the most points possible at that position (the total number of points I think the BPA will score) and then subtracts the total of each successive player down to the last player I bothered to predict.

Then I have MY needed picks.

So say my "likely picks" for QB is 2 and the worst case is 5 and for RB it is 4 and 5.

If the differentials look like this:

QB RB
10 15
15 10
1 15
35 1
20 0
8 14

For QB I would take 25 (total of the first two) and 81 (total of the 5) and average them and 41 and 41 for the RB. Then multiply that by the percentage of needed players I have (1 for QB 3 for RB including starting the RB in one of the remaining Spots) I do the same thing for 2 or 3 picks later and display them as well for each position left. I usually pick based on the lowest number first but I keep an eye on the 2nd or 3rd pick later to see if anything big is developing and if there is I might override the auto pick.

This works pretty well until I have drafted all of my starters. For any sleeper I have (players I think that will be undervalued) I will usually go in and either drop their difference to zero or subtract one from the worst case number if they fall inside of the worst case picks. This year I am working on a second sheet that will rank players in likelihood they get drafted and work that into the equation.

I'm not sure if that helps or not. I've played with a lot of formulas and used them in competing leagues a couple of times and this seems to yield the best results. Having the numbers laid out like this also allows me to spot positions of need for other players which lets me target players they might need for trade later. If you want the sheet I'll throw it your way just PM me but overall remember you're not drafting players and you're really not even looking to score points, you are trying not to lose points from what is possible in each pick.

Mike

 

[thunderkyss]

This works pretty well until I have drafted all of my starters. For any sleeper I have (players I think that will be undervalued) I will usually go in and either drop their difference to zero or subtract one from the worst case number if they fall inside of the worst case picks. This year I am working on a second sheet that will rank players in likelihood they get drafted and work that into the equation.

If you document your projections correctly, wouldn't your spreadsheet correctly identify where the sleeper should be taken?

 

[Playoffs]

3 points for every passing TD
+14 points for 4 passing TDs
5 points for every passing TD after 4 (on 5th, 6th, & 7th passing TD the player gets 5 points instead of 3)

we start
QB
1 RBs
2 WRs
2 Flex
K
Def

That is a scoring system I have never seen -- very unique. I'd call it high-performance QB heavy scoring. A 4th passing TD is worth 17 points, wow. I'd imagine teams with best records had a high performance QB? For instance, Brees & Rodgers had 4 4+ TD games last year while Peyton and Flacco and Cam Newton had 0. (Cam will be adjusted up a bit for rushing TDs, something Peyton won't have)

You'll have to upgrade QBs with 4+ TD per game potential, with Drew Brees and Aaron Rogers way above the rest, imo. You can use this tool to see who fits the bill: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BreeDr00/gamelog//

Next with 2 Flex spots I'd go RB heavy. Starting RBs get lots of touches, typically.

It's important to look at last year's draft and see when QBs were taken so you can adjust to that. And compare player fantasy points scoring within position groups and across position groups. That'll give you an idea of how to value players & position groups.

What you're looking to do is create Tiers of approximately equal value players with each position group. So if QB1 scored(and is projected to score) 200 points and QB2 scored 196 points and QB3 scored 174 points, you see there QB1 & QB2 are in Tier 1 and QB3 at the top of Tier 2. Your goal is to group players in each Tier having roughly the same value.

If you'll do a bunch of these: http://draftwizard.fantasypros.com/...s=0&eligibilityRule=-1&universe=0&scoring=STD you can get a feel for drafting tendencies, but it's based on standard scoring not your unique system.