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Expectations for #1 draft pick

S

Scooter 1984

Practice Squad
I had the misfortune of starting to follow football right around the time the Oilers moved out of town (as a result of my age), so I've never really cared about draft picks.

So, I'm not too sure as to what we can expect out of having the first pick. Anyway...

Would anyone be desperate enough to offer us their first and second round picks (or 1st and 3rd or whatever) for the #1 pick? That seems like an *****ic move to me (on the part of the team that would trade with us), but I come from a baseball mentality where player development is stressed a lot more. It might not be stressed enough in the NFL, and it seems teams over-value players in the draft with regularity.

Then again, there are only so many roster spots; there isn't a AAA or AA team you could throw players into.
 
its kinda hard to compare the nfl to baseball, becuase in baseball there isn't a salary cap and teams can afford to stockpile prospects and develop them. It used to be that way in the NFL to, there used to be a time where a team could take a qb high and sit him on the bench for years and develop him and not bring him in until the vet was done, but now teams just throw them out there, which is another reason why so many young qbs strugle early in their careers.
 
College football is like AAA to the NFL, and we have a shot at bringing up the best homerun hitter at that level. Some of us want to trade him for a pitcher and some prospects. I always like to watch the hitters.
 
I guess I rambled too much. I just really wanted to see what everyone thought we could reasonably expect to get from various teams for our #1 pick.

Personally, I say taking the best player in the draft when you have the opportunity is a no-brainer; it's a rare opportunity and you have to seize it. There will be other drafts and other picks, we're not playing for a Super Bowl next year.

But then again, like I admitted, I'm pretty new to the school of Draft Strategy.
 
the worth of a pick is directly proportional to the prospects in the draft.

If Lienart and Bush are still huge prospects once the draft rolls around.. it would not be all that surprising to be offered 2 firsts (this years and next years) and a 2nd and 3rd for the pick.

For a basic idea of what picks are worth though... check this out.

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pvc.gif

Using that chart.. you can see that the #1 pick is worth 3000 points.. in order for the person with the #2 pick to swap picks with us.. they would have to give us at least the #2 pick, and the #50 pick.. which are worth 2600, and 400..respectively.
 
Scooter 1984 said:
I guess I rambled too much. I just really wanted to see what everyone thought we could reasonably expect to get from various teams for our #1 pick.

Personally, I say taking the best player in the draft when you have the opportunity is a no-brainer; it's a rare opportunity and you have to seize it. There will be other drafts and other picks, we're not playing for a Super Bowl next year.

But then again, like I admitted, I'm pretty new to the school of Draft Strategy.
Click to expand...
Based one how good the top two players are viewed in this years draft, The #1 overall pick is easily worth, the #3 overall pick and a 2nd round draft choice, probably more.

A team with a late first round pick would have to trade this years first round pick, next years first round pick, a second round pick and that still probably wouldn't be enough.
 
Grid - That's exactly what I was looking for. Thanks. Gotta admit, I didn't expect to see exact numeric values applied to the picks, though.
 
there used to not be a numeric value applied.. I beleive it was Jimmy Johnson that first started using this system.

Its useful because it gives you a happy medium to work from. You can say "The first round pick is worth 3000 points.. but there arent any really elite prospects, so im only gonna give it a 2500 point value".. that kinda thing. Without a set value, its harder to judge what a pick might be worth.
 
Grid said:
there used to not be a numeric value applied.. I beleive it was Jimmy Johnson that first started using this system.

Its useful because it gives you a happy medium to work from. You can say "The first round pick is worth 3000 points.. but there arent any really elite prospects, so im only gonna give it a 2500 point value".. that kinda thing. Without a set value, its harder to judge what a pick might be worth.
Click to expand...

And this year the top two draft picks ought to be worth more than the chart's value, especially #1 since Bush is likely going to be there, whereas from pick #3 on down will, if anything, be valued a little less than on the chart unless some people really step it up at the combine and workouts, which I'm sure some people will emerge, but still the #1 and #2 picks should be worth more than the chart says this year.
 
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