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Draft Positioning

S

shinerbock_texas

Noob
Here is the lastest possibly draft scenarios based upon current losing records. As we all probably remember from last year, ties are decided by strength of schedule, so teams with easier schedules draft ahead of teams with more difficult schedules. Anyways who do you think will end up with the overall 1st pick in the draft. Miami or SF. If so do they take the 5th straight QB with the overall #1. Aaron Rodgers from Cal anyone?


W L
Miami 1 9
San Francisco 1 9
Cleveland 3 7
Kansas City 3 6
Oakland 3 7
Dallas 3 7
Washington 3 7
Carolina 3 7
Arizona 4 6
Buffalo 4 6
Houston 4 6
Tennessee 4 6
Cincinnati 4 6
Detroit 4 6
Chicago 4 6
Tampa Bay 4 6
New Orleans 4 6
NY Giants 5 5
St. Louis 5 5
Green Bay 6 4
Minnesota 6 4
Jacksonville 6 4
Seattle 6 4
Baltimore 7 3
Indianapolis 7 3
Denver 7 3
San Diego 7 3
NY Jets 7 3
Atlanta 8 2
New England 8 1
Philadelphia 9 1
Pittsburgh 9 1
 
You put houston in front of all those other 4-6 teams is that because we have a weaker schedule if so where did you find that?
 
actually all I was doing was posting the teams by records, not by strength of schedule. There are lots of teams bunched up with the same records, but all will play out over the next 6 weeks
 
There are plenty of site which keep track of draft positioning. gbnreport.com, thehuddlereport.com, about.com

just giving that so you don't pull your hairout trying to keep up.
 
well, history has told us the dolphins will either draft QB alex smith or matt lienert, because in the last 4 drafts, the first pick was vick(#7) carr(#8) palmer (#9) manning (#10)

so of course the first player taken will have to wear #11, and thats smith and lienert.
 
As of week 11 here is the draft order courtesy of the huddle report-

PICK TEAM WINS OPP%
1 49ERS 1 0.481
2 DOLPHINS 1 0.563
3 REDSKINS 3 0.513
4 PANTHERS 3 0.519
5 COWBOYS 3 0.544
RAIDERS 3 0.544
7 CHIEFS 3 0.563
8 BROWNS 3 0.575
9 CARDINALS 4 0.456
BUCCANEERS 4 0.456
11 SAINTS 4 0.469
12 BEARS 4 0.488
13 TITANS 4 0.494
14 BILLS 4 0.513
15 TEXANS 4 0.525
16 LIONS 4 0.531
17 BENGALS 4 0.563
18 RAMS 5 0.481
19 GIANTS 5 0.531
20 SEAHAWKS 6 0.431
21 PACKERS 6 0.481
22 VIKINGS 6 0.494
23 JAGUARS 6 0.519
24 BRONCOS 7 0.444
25 CHARGERS 7 0.475
26 JETS 7 0.488
27 RAVENS 7 0.519
28 COLTS 7 0.525
29 FALCONS 8 0.419
30 EAGLES 9 0.456
31 PATRIOTS 9 0.463
32 STEELERS 9 0.488

The Texans still face the Titans, Jets, Colts, Bears, Jags & Browns. Only the Browns, Bears & Titans have lesser records, two of which are at home. So at a minimum two more wins or 6-10. Flip a coin if you think the Texans can win a couple more, anything is possible in the NFL but generally the 15th spot is a pretty good guess, the Rams & Giants being teams that could slip and Bills, & Bucs could all move higher, but only marginally.

So with the 15th pick the Texans are going to have to decide between Marcus Spears, DT LSU/ Ahmad Brooks LB Virgina/ David Pollack LB Georgia/ Thomas Davis S Georgia/

There are four outstanding corners but all may be taken by the time the Texans pick, Antrel Rolle, Miami/ Marlon Jackson, Michigan/ Justin Miller, Clemson/ Corey Webster, LSU. If we could choose it would be Antrel Rolle who is a big, aggressive cover who would compliment Dunta very nicely as Glenn still schools them both :heh: the Texans would not pass him up IF were available.

David Pollack would be my linebacker of choice, but if Ahmad Brooks comes out early he would be hard to pass up due to his playmaking skills. Pollack is almost a carbon copy of Babin, but thats not such a bad thing either.

The two top RB's should be already selected by the time the Texans pick Cedric Benson, TX/ Cadillac Williams, Auburn. But if the Texans want a big time young RB then it has to be Ronnie Brown of Auburn.

The most likey pick would be Marcus Spears a big, cat quick DT that would fit perfectly in the 3-4, moving Robaire Smith to nose tackle, bringing Seth in on passing situations, Marcus would be on the wing, then the Texans would have for the first time an effective pass rush.

Lastly for those of you who wanted to trade up for Sean Taylor, Georgia Safety Thomas Davis is the player, although we seem to have a good player coming up in rookie Glenn Earl, McCree however is a free agent after seasons end.
 
hopefully we will resign Mcree.

What about Derrick Johnson.. is he a top 5? I wasnt a big "trade up for Taylor" supporter.. but I may be a big trade up for Derrick Johnson supporter :)
 
I'm a Longhorn and I would love if Derrick Johnson becomes a Texan. However we have more important needs on the DL. And I dont see the Texans trading up about 10 spots to pick Derrick Johnson. It would cost just way too much.
 
Not necessarily.

If ya think about it, or needs on defense are many.. but our need for defensive rookies are few. We dont need 10 more rookies.. we need 2 more playmakers and some depth.

As I said in my other post here, I would be willing to give up our 1st 2nd and one of our 3rds to move up and get Johnson. That would still leave us with a 3rd for day 1.. which we can use to get a quality Dline prospect.

then we still have our 4th, 5th, 6th, and 2 7ths to try for a little more depth.

I mean honestly.. Seth Payne is going to start next year whether we get a rookie lineman or not. And so is Robaire smith.. but judging by Walkers current play, he may be better off spelling our other linemen, than starting. So we need 1 lineman, and a 3rd round pick is plenty high enough to get a good lineman.

We could really use an ILB to take Foreman's spot.. but it is not a huge necessity. Maybe our 4th rounder?

We have Dunta, I dont think a rookie CB is a huge priority this year.. next year, yah I could see it being really important.. but giving Dunta another year before we bring in another rookie would probably be a good idea.

FS is not a problem if we resign Mcree.. we will have Coleman and Mcree and that is good.

SS isnt a problem if Earl keeps playing like he is.. and we have Clemmons to back him up.



So really when ya think about it.. we DO need depth on defense but we are not hurting real bad at any position.. and we definatly need some young linemen.. but we still have free agency, and there are no linemen in the draft this year that are better prospects than Derrick Johnson.


The question would be.. who would johnson replace? Babin or Wong? if we get Johnson, it is gonna make the battle at OLB very interesting next offseason. (a battle at OLB! woo!!)
 
Grid said:
The question would be.. who would johnson replace? Babin or Wong? if we get Johnson, it is gonna make the battle at OLB very interesting next offseason. (a battle at OLB! woo!!)
Click to expand...

I thought you were talking about getting Derrick Johnson for playing ILB not OLB. I cant see him playing OLB in the 3-4.
 
Derrick Johnson will play middle linebacker in a 3-4 NFL defense. Do the Texans need to upgrade Foreman @ MLB, the consensous is yeah they probably will take a look at this in the draft or via free agency.

Trading up high in the draft order would cost the Texans. For this reason alone I oppose the idea. There are plenty of fish in the sea, the Texans will have another excellent talent to bring in next year and I think its more positive to focus on the players realisticly available at this time as well as those who fit the Texans.

top needs-
pass rush-DT
pass outlet-TE
ground attack-RB
ground attack-OL
pass coverage-LB
future shutdown-CB
 
Through Week 12

Based On Full 16 Game Schedule
Pick Team Wins Opp%

1 49ers 1 0.472
2 Dolphins 2 0.557
3 Redskins 3 0.511
4 Chiefs 3 0.563
5 Browns 3 0.591
6 Cardinals 4 0.449
Buccaneers 4 0.449
8 Saints 4 0.472
9 Bears 4 0.489
10 Panthers 4 0.506
Titans 4 0.506
12 Cowboys 4 0.528
13 Lions 4 0.534
14 Raiders 4 0.540
15 Rams 5 0.483
16 Bills 5 0.517
Texans 5 0.517
18 Giants 5 0.534
19 Bengals 5 0.557
20 Seahawks 6 0.438
21 Jaguars 6 0.528
22 Broncos 7 0.460
23 Packers 7 0.477
24 Vikings 7 0.483
25 Ravens 7 0.534
26 Chargers 8 0.472
27 Jets 8 0.500
28 Colts 8 0.517
29 Falcons 9 0.403
30 Eagles 10 0.455
31 Patriots 10 0.477
32 Steelers 10 0.494
 
I could see Matt Leinart going to San Fran or Miami if he comes out early.

Derrick Johnson should be a top 5 pick. He might drop to top 10 if the top teams don't need a LB.


Also, here is hoping the Bills win a few more games. I don't want the Cowboys to have 2 picks in the first half of the draft.

I do hope the Boys continue to lose, though, since we get their 3rd round pick.
 
rittenhouserobz said:
I am not sure if this is good news but our current position in the draft is 13.
Click to expand...
At that this point in the season (with us being out of the playoffs), the
higher we move up in the draft the better. This season is over, the focus
should now be on future seasons.
 
nunusguy said:
At that this point in the season (with us being out of the playoffs), the
higher we move up in the draft the better. This season is over, the focus
should now be on future seasons.
Click to expand...

Think moving up in the draft is generally overrated. this year, especially there is not a great separation of talent between the top 7 or 8 prospects and the rest of the pack. as the draft approaches things could look different, but there 15-20 guys right now people are making arguments are top ten picks. i don't think they will be getting a better player at 11 or 12 than at 18 or 19.
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
Think moving up in the draft is generally overrated. this year, especially there is not a great separation of talent between the top 7 or 8 prospects and the rest of the pack. as the draft approaches things could look different, but there 15-20 guys right now people are making arguments are top ten picks. i don't think they will be getting a better player at 11 or 12 than at 18 or 19.
Click to expand...
My point was not to suggest we should "trade-up" in the draft. My point is
that since we have no realistic chance of getting in the playoffs, there is
really a disincentive to win more games this year since it would only cost
us in the draft order. For those who say we won 4 in '02, 5 last year and therefor if we win 6 games this year we are making progress - I think that's
silly. To me there is virtually no between winning 5 games and 6 or 7 if you
miss the playoffs except you get a better draft pick with the < W-L.
 
nunusguy said:
My point was not to suggest we should "trade-up" in the draft. My point is
that since we have no realistic chance of getting in the playoffs, there is
really a disincentive to win more games this year since it would only cost
us in the draft order. For those who say we won 4 in '02, 5 last year and therefor if we win 6 games this year we are making progress - I think that's
silly. To me there is virtually no between winning 5 games and 6 or 7 if you
miss the playoffs except you get a better draft pick with the < W-L.
Click to expand...

and where did i say anything about trading up in the draft? i understood you the first time. i am saying that the Texans (as well as most teams) don't care about draft order as much as fans do. The number 12 or 13 pick in the draft, especially this year's draft, is not going to yield a significantly better player than the number 18 or 19. I am willing to bet that Casserly would not know the Texans draft position if you just blindly asked him right now.

The Texans need to learn how to win football games. i am willing to "sacrifice' 6 to 8 spots in the draft to see the texans win 2 more games.
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
and where did i say anything about trading up in the draft? i understood you the first time. i am saying that the Texans (as well as most teams) don't care about draft order as much as fans do. The number 12 or 13 pick in the draft, especially this year's draft, is not going to yield a significantly better player than the number 18 or 19.
Click to expand...
Looks like I'm the one who misunderstood, my mistake. But I do think the difference in value between say the 12 pick & 19 pick is significant. Just
look at what we had to fork over in this years college draft to move from a high second to low first to get Babin, and I think the price would be > to go
from 19 to 12 in the top round. So somebody clearly thinks its important whether one drafts at 12 or 19. But these days there's so much parity, a
5 win team last year is in the playoffs this year (or maybe goes all the way
to the SB), or from playoffs one year to 4-5 wins next year. I think teams and
their individual players start seasons each year anew and aren't that concerned about previous seasons. I just don't think that over the long run, it makes any difference whether or not we win any more games this year.
 
nunusguy said:
For those who say we won 4 in '02, 5 last year and therefor if we win 6 games this year we are making progress - I think that's
silly. To me there is virtually no between winning 5 games and 6 or 7 if you
miss the playoffs except you get a better draft pick with the < W-L.
Click to expand...

The team needs to prove they can win in December. We have an abysmal record towards the end of the year. I also disagree with your entire idea of tanking the season. That just sends the wrong message going into the offseason.
 
Well we are currently tied for 11 with Detroit. They are always around the same pick as us in the draft. If we lose to the Bears then we could got to 8 or 9 considering Tampa play New Orleans and on of the two would have a better record than us and we would move ahead of the Bears. I do not want to see the Texans lose, but this is the only positive I have gotten from all the losing so I will focus on this until they start winning.
 
We will beat Cleveland the last game of the year. I am fairly certain of that. That gets us to 6-8. I think we probably lose to Jacksonville and that puts us at 6-9. I give us a slight edge against the Bears. So we should have a good idea whether we will be 6-10 or 7-9 on Monday.
 
THROUGH WEEK 14 BASED ON FULL 16 GAME SCHEDULE
pick team wins strength of schedule

1 49ERS 2 0.476
2 DOLPHINS 2 0.558
3 BROWNS 3 0.591
4 CARDINALS 4 0.462
5 TITANS 4 0.500
6 REDSKINS 4 0.505
7 RAIDERS 4 0.563
8 BUCCANEERS 5 0.466
9 BEARS 5 0.476
10 SAINTS 5 0.481
11 LIONS 5 0.510
12 TEXANS 5 0.510
13 COWBOYS 5 0.519
14 CHARGERS from GIANTS 5 0.529
15 CHIEFS 5 0.558
16 RAMS 6 0.490
17 PANTHERS 6 0.510
18 BENGALS 6 0.548
19 SEAHAWKS 7 0.442
20 VIKINGS 7 0.481
21 COWBOYS from BILLS 7 0.505
22 JAGUARS 7 0.524
23 BRONCOS 8 0.471
24 PACKERS 8 0.471
25 RAVENS 8 0.543
26 JETS 9 0.505
27 FALCONS 10 0.423
28 CHARGERS 10 0.471
29 COLTS 10 0.500
30 EAGLES 12 0.452
31 STEELERS 12 0.486
32 PATRIOTS 12 0.495
 
shinerbock_texas said:
THROUGH WEEK 14 BASED ON FULL 16 GAME SCHEDULE
pick team wins strength of schedule

1 49ERS 2 0.476
2 DOLPHINS 2 0.558
3 BROWNS 3 0.591
4 CARDINALS 4 0.462
5 TITANS 4 0.500
6 REDSKINS 4 0.505
7 RAIDERS 4 0.563
8 BUCCANEERS 5 0.466
9 BEARS 5 0.476
10 SAINTS 5 0.481
11 LIONS 5 0.510
12 TEXANS 5 0.510
13 COWBOYS 5 0.519
14 CHARGERS from GIANTS 5 0.529
15 CHIEFS 5 0.558
16 RAMS 6 0.490
17 PANTHERS 6 0.510
18 BENGALS 6 0.548
19 SEAHAWKS 7 0.442
20 VIKINGS 7 0.481
21 COWBOYS from BILLS 7 0.505
22 JAGUARS 7 0.524
23 BRONCOS 8 0.471
24 PACKERS 8 0.471
25 RAVENS 8 0.543
26 JETS 9 0.505
27 FALCONS 10 0.423
28 CHARGERS 10 0.471
29 COLTS 10 0.500
30 EAGLES 12 0.452
31 STEELERS 12 0.486
32 PATRIOTS 12 0.495
Click to expand...

Wouldn't the we be 11 and the Lions be 12, due to the fact that they beat us?
 
After today we are now drafting #17.

Miami
San Fran
Cleveland
Tenn
Tampa
Detroit
Chicago
San Diego (NYG)
Dallas
Washington
Arizona
Oakland
Carolina
New Orleans
St. Louis
Cincy
Houston
Kansas City
Seattle
Green Bay
Minnesota
Baltimore
Denver
Jacksonville
Dallas (Buf)
New York Jets
Atlanta
San Diego
Indy
New England
Pittsburgh
Philly
 
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