Doppelganger
None
This will be my last Doppelnock of the season. The draft is next week and we are getting into the height of misinformation. Its time for me to step back, kick back, and enjoy the last couple of weeks of the draft season. I am noticing that as I get older and more responsibilities come up, I have less free time to devote to the mock process. It is not an easy process and typically takes me a couple of weeks to complete 1 mock.
With that said, i want say thanks to the wonderful comments I have been getting over the past couple of years. Yall have been instrumental in helping me focus on players I had not previously considered and updating me on information I had not yet heard. They say 2 heads are better than 1, well I say a community of draft prognosticators is better than one! Thank you for letting me be a part of this wonderful community!!!
As Bugs Bunny would say, "On with the show!"
TRADE: Texans trade #27 to Buffalo for Bills 2nd and 3rd round selections in 2013.
The more I look at this draft, the more I believe a trade down will happen. There are so many good players at #27 it would make sense to trade down and take one of them a little later. In this scenario, I am saying the Texans trade with the Buffalo Bills, but it could easily be the Jaguars, Eagles, or Cardinals, as well.
In my opinion, the Bills are desperate for a QB. I think there is a good possibility the Jags take Geno Smith #2 overall. Even if they don't, I think he is taken by the 15th selection. As I showed in an earlier analysis, there is a mean of 2-3 QBs taken in the first round every year(for the past 10 years or so). The Bills may feel they need to trade up to get the guy they want and prevent him going to the Jags, Eagles, or even Cardinals. Since this is a QB driven league, I think the Bills pull the trigger on the trade up in order to secure their guy:
27. Buffalo Bills draft Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse, 6'2, 223lbs, 5.06
Why Nassib? Couple of reasons: 1. Doug Marrone, the current head coach of the Bills, was also on the coaching staff at Syracuse who helped develop Nassib. 2. Bills fans may want to grab the home town guy in order to inject interest into the fan base. I think at the end of the day, Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, and Ryan Nassib will go in the first round.
2.(Bills) Robert Woods, WR USC 6'1, 201lbs, 4.51
Woods is a big play WR. He has good speed, good hands, and looks to be further and further away form his ankle injury. He immediately slots in as the #2 WR next to AJ. However, he still has the potential to be a good #1 when AJ decides to hang it up. Good character guy as well.
2(Texans) Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Miss, 6'3, 250lbs, 4.64
Texans could use another OLB and Collins would be a great fit. He had 92 tackles with 10 sacks, 20 tackles for a loss, 5 passes batted and 4 forced fumbles in 2012. In 2011 he had 98 tackles with 19.5 tackles for a loss, 6.5 sacks, 8 passes broken up, 1 forced fumble and 1 interception. He is strong against the run, can generate sacks, and also has a knack for making plays with his hands. He would fit very well into the rotation with Reed and Mercilus. Texans could use another OLB and Collins has the chops to become a part of the rotation.
3 (Bills) Brandon Williams, NT, Missouri Southern, 6'1, 341lbs, 5.23
If Williams had played at the University of Missouri rather than Missouri Southern, he would have been a second rounder for sure. Playing and dominating against inferior competition only gets you so far. Sure he did well at the combine and senior game, but he never faced the elite SEC OL for extended looks. Williams has a good blend of size and speed. He probably wouldn't get to start right away, but he would provide rotational help right away. I believe he would win the starting job by the end of the season. Unlike Cody or Mitchell, Williams has the size and strength to take on double teams, yet the speed and athleticism to shoot the gaps.
3. (Texans)Jordan Mills, OT, Louisiana Tech, 6'5, 316lbs, 5.37
People here know I am not enamored with Newton. Now that he is coming off a major knee injury, the Texans RT other options include Ryan Harris and Andrew Gardner. Personally, I think RT is an important position and as such, I grab, Jordan Mills. Whenever people think of Louisiana Tech they immediately think of their prolific WR Patton. They tend to forget about the guy who paved the way for the running game and protected the QB, so that Patton could run his routes. In the senior bowl Mills held his own against speed rushers, bull rushers, and combos. He improved every practice and showed a mean streak. He was a high motor kind of guy. Would be able to come in and compete for the backup spot with Harris and Garner. If Newton has a prolonged injury, he may even be starting material.
3(Compensatory ) Cooper Taylor, S/ILB Richmond, 6'5, 235lbs, 4.69
Some may say this is too high, but I think he would be worth it. Taylor is a massive safety with great lateral movement, is a strong tackler, and has good hands. I think he is too big to play as a safety in the NFL. However, he would be an excellent Joker. For those unfamiliar, a Joker is essentially an extra safety who plays down near the LBs. The Joker essentially allows a Defense to keep an extra saftey up close to help with intermediate throws and runs in order to take pressure off the DBs. Taylor's 77 tackles, 5 tackles for a loss, 9 passes broken up, 3 forced fumbles and 4 interceptions in 2012 suggest to me he would be perfect in this role. He could be a 3 down Joker and could play a step behind Cush on the TE side. He would be a tackling machine next to Cush have the lateral movement to get to the edge, and strong/fast enough to deal with the TEs coming over the middle. With the use of more athletic TEs, teams are needing to find a way to stop them. Most ILB are simply too slow or unatheletic enough to deal with these players. As such, teams are beginning to look into Jokers or an additional safety to take on these bigger TEs. Taylor could be the Texans Joker.
4. Marcus Davis, WR, Virginia Tech, 6'3, 233lbs, 4.56
For the fourth round, I go right back to WR. With Woods, I have a decent sized, good speed, good hands playmaker. With Davis, I have a big WR target with deceptive speed, and good hands. He presents a very nice target and would be a great #2 receiver down the line. Initially he could play on special teams and in 4 deep sets. However as he gets a hold of the playbook and as the Texans begin to limit AJ's reps, he could find the field. Woods would move to the #1 WR spot and Davis the #2 spot. Martin would continue in the slot.
5.Quanterus Smith, OLB, Western Kentucky, 6'5 249lbs, 4.69
I know he tore his ACL, but he is a special player. He had 12.5 sacks in 2012, 38 tackles with 18.5 tackles for a loss and 3 forced fumbles prior to injury. He schooled my boy Alabama OT DJ Fluker. In 2011 he had 7.5 sacks, 38 tackles and 11 tackles for a loss. He had 47 tackles with four sacks in 2010. He probably needs to IR the whole year(which is actually good as it will help with roster selection). However, next year when healthy he will be chomping at the bit and be ready to add another pass rusher to the group of Reed, Mercilus, and Collins. You can never have enough top level pass rushers on the team or on the field.
6.Dennis Johnson, RB/KR/PR, Arkansas, 5'9, 213lbs, 4.54
A solidly built player with good hands and quickness. He would be a great 3rd back for the Texans. He immediately takes over the role vacated by Justin Forsett. He ran for 757 yards with a nice 5.5ypc average with 8 rushing touchdowns, 25 receptions for160 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns in 2012. The other value he brings is in special teams. He is a fantastic returner and averaged 24.3 yards per return with three touchdowns over the past 3 years at Arkansas. By having him as the KR/PR it would allow Martin to focus solely on becoming the best slot receiver he can be and it would keep Manning away from extra hits he would take as a returner.
6. Prentiss Waggner, CB/S, Tennessee, 6-2, 185lbs, 4.58
A combo DB who played half the year as a CB and half as a Safety. The place he shined was as a deep CF safety. Seeing that the Texans just signed possibly the best ever CF safety, Waggner could be a great pick. He would start out on special teams and would get extra tuition from Reed. When Reed is ready to hang it up, Waggner would be ready to go.
7. Elvis Fisher, OT, Missouri, 6'5, 300lbs, 5.25
This is a pick that is low risk, high reward. He was the starting LT in 2008 as a freshman and was an All Big XII honorable mention. He was an All-Big XII honorable mention at left tackle in 2009 and 2010. In 2010 he had his best season as the blind side protector for Blaine Gabbert. In one of the biggest games of the year he completely shutout Adrian Clayborn. Big things were expected and he was touted as a possible first rounder. Unfortunately for him he ruptured his pateller tendon in 2011 and was gone for the whole season. he received a medical red shirt and came back in 2012. He ended up with an MCL injury that kept him out 3 games. Like Smith, he likely needs to spend the year on the IR. However, in a year he may be good enough to compete for the starting RT spot with Newton and Mills. Pre-injury he was a definite OT starter. If he can return to that, the Texans have another quality RT candidate at a ridiculously low price! If he doesn't make it, he's a 7th round pick. No big deal.
With that said, i want say thanks to the wonderful comments I have been getting over the past couple of years. Yall have been instrumental in helping me focus on players I had not previously considered and updating me on information I had not yet heard. They say 2 heads are better than 1, well I say a community of draft prognosticators is better than one! Thank you for letting me be a part of this wonderful community!!!
As Bugs Bunny would say, "On with the show!"
TRADE: Texans trade #27 to Buffalo for Bills 2nd and 3rd round selections in 2013.
The more I look at this draft, the more I believe a trade down will happen. There are so many good players at #27 it would make sense to trade down and take one of them a little later. In this scenario, I am saying the Texans trade with the Buffalo Bills, but it could easily be the Jaguars, Eagles, or Cardinals, as well.
In my opinion, the Bills are desperate for a QB. I think there is a good possibility the Jags take Geno Smith #2 overall. Even if they don't, I think he is taken by the 15th selection. As I showed in an earlier analysis, there is a mean of 2-3 QBs taken in the first round every year(for the past 10 years or so). The Bills may feel they need to trade up to get the guy they want and prevent him going to the Jags, Eagles, or even Cardinals. Since this is a QB driven league, I think the Bills pull the trigger on the trade up in order to secure their guy:
27. Buffalo Bills draft Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse, 6'2, 223lbs, 5.06
Why Nassib? Couple of reasons: 1. Doug Marrone, the current head coach of the Bills, was also on the coaching staff at Syracuse who helped develop Nassib. 2. Bills fans may want to grab the home town guy in order to inject interest into the fan base. I think at the end of the day, Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, and Ryan Nassib will go in the first round.
2.(Bills) Robert Woods, WR USC 6'1, 201lbs, 4.51
Woods is a big play WR. He has good speed, good hands, and looks to be further and further away form his ankle injury. He immediately slots in as the #2 WR next to AJ. However, he still has the potential to be a good #1 when AJ decides to hang it up. Good character guy as well.
2(Texans) Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Miss, 6'3, 250lbs, 4.64
Texans could use another OLB and Collins would be a great fit. He had 92 tackles with 10 sacks, 20 tackles for a loss, 5 passes batted and 4 forced fumbles in 2012. In 2011 he had 98 tackles with 19.5 tackles for a loss, 6.5 sacks, 8 passes broken up, 1 forced fumble and 1 interception. He is strong against the run, can generate sacks, and also has a knack for making plays with his hands. He would fit very well into the rotation with Reed and Mercilus. Texans could use another OLB and Collins has the chops to become a part of the rotation.
3 (Bills) Brandon Williams, NT, Missouri Southern, 6'1, 341lbs, 5.23
If Williams had played at the University of Missouri rather than Missouri Southern, he would have been a second rounder for sure. Playing and dominating against inferior competition only gets you so far. Sure he did well at the combine and senior game, but he never faced the elite SEC OL for extended looks. Williams has a good blend of size and speed. He probably wouldn't get to start right away, but he would provide rotational help right away. I believe he would win the starting job by the end of the season. Unlike Cody or Mitchell, Williams has the size and strength to take on double teams, yet the speed and athleticism to shoot the gaps.
3. (Texans)Jordan Mills, OT, Louisiana Tech, 6'5, 316lbs, 5.37
People here know I am not enamored with Newton. Now that he is coming off a major knee injury, the Texans RT other options include Ryan Harris and Andrew Gardner. Personally, I think RT is an important position and as such, I grab, Jordan Mills. Whenever people think of Louisiana Tech they immediately think of their prolific WR Patton. They tend to forget about the guy who paved the way for the running game and protected the QB, so that Patton could run his routes. In the senior bowl Mills held his own against speed rushers, bull rushers, and combos. He improved every practice and showed a mean streak. He was a high motor kind of guy. Would be able to come in and compete for the backup spot with Harris and Garner. If Newton has a prolonged injury, he may even be starting material.
3(Compensatory ) Cooper Taylor, S/ILB Richmond, 6'5, 235lbs, 4.69
Some may say this is too high, but I think he would be worth it. Taylor is a massive safety with great lateral movement, is a strong tackler, and has good hands. I think he is too big to play as a safety in the NFL. However, he would be an excellent Joker. For those unfamiliar, a Joker is essentially an extra safety who plays down near the LBs. The Joker essentially allows a Defense to keep an extra saftey up close to help with intermediate throws and runs in order to take pressure off the DBs. Taylor's 77 tackles, 5 tackles for a loss, 9 passes broken up, 3 forced fumbles and 4 interceptions in 2012 suggest to me he would be perfect in this role. He could be a 3 down Joker and could play a step behind Cush on the TE side. He would be a tackling machine next to Cush have the lateral movement to get to the edge, and strong/fast enough to deal with the TEs coming over the middle. With the use of more athletic TEs, teams are needing to find a way to stop them. Most ILB are simply too slow or unatheletic enough to deal with these players. As such, teams are beginning to look into Jokers or an additional safety to take on these bigger TEs. Taylor could be the Texans Joker.
4. Marcus Davis, WR, Virginia Tech, 6'3, 233lbs, 4.56
For the fourth round, I go right back to WR. With Woods, I have a decent sized, good speed, good hands playmaker. With Davis, I have a big WR target with deceptive speed, and good hands. He presents a very nice target and would be a great #2 receiver down the line. Initially he could play on special teams and in 4 deep sets. However as he gets a hold of the playbook and as the Texans begin to limit AJ's reps, he could find the field. Woods would move to the #1 WR spot and Davis the #2 spot. Martin would continue in the slot.
5.Quanterus Smith, OLB, Western Kentucky, 6'5 249lbs, 4.69
I know he tore his ACL, but he is a special player. He had 12.5 sacks in 2012, 38 tackles with 18.5 tackles for a loss and 3 forced fumbles prior to injury. He schooled my boy Alabama OT DJ Fluker. In 2011 he had 7.5 sacks, 38 tackles and 11 tackles for a loss. He had 47 tackles with four sacks in 2010. He probably needs to IR the whole year(which is actually good as it will help with roster selection). However, next year when healthy he will be chomping at the bit and be ready to add another pass rusher to the group of Reed, Mercilus, and Collins. You can never have enough top level pass rushers on the team or on the field.
6.Dennis Johnson, RB/KR/PR, Arkansas, 5'9, 213lbs, 4.54
A solidly built player with good hands and quickness. He would be a great 3rd back for the Texans. He immediately takes over the role vacated by Justin Forsett. He ran for 757 yards with a nice 5.5ypc average with 8 rushing touchdowns, 25 receptions for160 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns in 2012. The other value he brings is in special teams. He is a fantastic returner and averaged 24.3 yards per return with three touchdowns over the past 3 years at Arkansas. By having him as the KR/PR it would allow Martin to focus solely on becoming the best slot receiver he can be and it would keep Manning away from extra hits he would take as a returner.
6. Prentiss Waggner, CB/S, Tennessee, 6-2, 185lbs, 4.58
A combo DB who played half the year as a CB and half as a Safety. The place he shined was as a deep CF safety. Seeing that the Texans just signed possibly the best ever CF safety, Waggner could be a great pick. He would start out on special teams and would get extra tuition from Reed. When Reed is ready to hang it up, Waggner would be ready to go.
7. Elvis Fisher, OT, Missouri, 6'5, 300lbs, 5.25
This is a pick that is low risk, high reward. He was the starting LT in 2008 as a freshman and was an All Big XII honorable mention. He was an All-Big XII honorable mention at left tackle in 2009 and 2010. In 2010 he had his best season as the blind side protector for Blaine Gabbert. In one of the biggest games of the year he completely shutout Adrian Clayborn. Big things were expected and he was touted as a possible first rounder. Unfortunately for him he ruptured his pateller tendon in 2011 and was gone for the whole season. he received a medical red shirt and came back in 2012. He ended up with an MCL injury that kept him out 3 games. Like Smith, he likely needs to spend the year on the IR. However, in a year he may be good enough to compete for the starting RT spot with Newton and Mills. Pre-injury he was a definite OT starter. If he can return to that, the Texans have another quality RT candidate at a ridiculously low price! If he doesn't make it, he's a 7th round pick. No big deal.
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and fewer :wadepalm: 
