Colts Terrific 12 v. Texan Terrific 12

[Mistril48]

Old Posting (new posting below)

In a salary cap regime like the NFL, the value of a player is a function of his performance measured against his cap value. A non-expansion NFL team typically drafts 12 players (the “T12” if you will) in the first 3 rounds over a 4 year period. These 12 players are particularly valuable to a franchise in a salary cap regime, because they typically have much lower cap values than players signed through free agency. For example, Chester Pitts has a 2004 cap value of $705,000, but Steve McKinney has a 2004 cap value of $3,050,000.

Typically, an impact player becomes a free agent after four accrued years and either leaves, or receives his first big free agency contract. Each year, a franchise typically loses 3 first day drafted players to free agency (unless they re-sign the players) and get three replacements through the draft, thereby maintaining their T12 (in some cases, of course, a player drafted to be a T12 player won’t work out and a team may end up with less than 12, or a second day drafted player may excel, like Domanick Davis, thereby creating more than 12). McKinney, Bradford, Wong, Smith and Wade are all examples of four year players who got big raises to come to the Texans for their 5th year.

In the 2002 season, the Texans first year, they only had 5 T12 (1 first, 2 second and 2 third), while all the other teams had 12. Bummer. Unlike the Panthers and the Jaguars, the Texans weren’t given any extra first round picks. Hard to compete.

The good news is the Texans have now caught up, thanks to expansion picks and Charlie Casserly’s astute trades. They now have 12 players who they drafted on the first day. The Texans now have a T12 like other NFL teams. Good.

New Posting

How about the Texans next opponent, the Colts. How do the Colts' T12 compare with the Texans’ T12?

. . YR . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . . YR . . . Colts (4 yrs)

F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 01 WR Reggie Wayne
I. . ’02 . QB David Carr . . . . . . . . . . .’02. DE Dwight Freeney
R . ’03 . WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . .’03. TE Dallas Clark
S . ’04 . CB Dunta Robinson
T . ’04 . LB Jason Babin

S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’01 DB Idrees Bashir
E . ’02 . WR Jabar Gaffney
C . ’02 . OL Chester Pitts . . . . . . . . . .’02 DT Larry Tripplett
O . ’03 . TE Benny Joppru . . . . . . . . . ‘03 DB Mike Doss
N . ’04 . RB Tony Hollings . . . . . . . . . .’04 DB Bob Sanders
D


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’01 DB Cory Bird
T . ’02 . OL Fred Weary . . . . . . . . . . . ’02 DB Joseph Jefferson
H . ’02 . OL Charles Hill (released)
I . ’03. . LB Antwan Peek . . . . . . . . . . ’03 DB Donald Strickland
R . ’03 . OL Seth Wand
D . ’03 . QB Dave Ragone
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .’04 TE Mike Hartsock
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’.04 LB Gilbert Gardener


I would argue that the Colts illustrate how we have ‘arrived’ after just three years of drafts. We have drafted 13 first day players (T12) and the Colts have drafted 12 first day players (T12). Further, the Texans have generated 7 starters (Carr, Johnson, Gaffney, Pitts, Wand, Babin, Robinson) from their T12 and the Colts have generated 5 starters (I think – Wayne, Freeney, Bashir. Doss, Strickland) from their T12.


. . . . . . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . . . . . . Colts (4 yrs)

. . . . . . QB David Carr
. . . . . . QB Dave Ragone

. . . . . . RB Tony Hollings

. . . . . .WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . . . . .WR Reggie Wayne
. . . . . .WR Jabar Gaffney

. . . . . . TE Benny Joppru . . . . . . . . . . . .TE Dallas Clark
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TE Mike Hartsock

. . . . . .OL Chester Pitts
. . . . . .OL Seth Wand
. . . . . .OL Fred Weary


. . . . . . DL Charles Hill (released) . . . . . . DE Dwight Freeney
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT Larry Tripplett

. . . . . .LB Jason Babin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . LB Gilbert Gardener
. . . . . .LB Antwan Peek

. . . . . .CB Dunta Robinson . . . . . . . . . . .DB Idrees Bashir
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DB Mike Doss
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DB Bob Sander
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DB Cory Bird
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .DB Joseph Jefferson
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DB Donald Strickland

Would you trade our players, above, for their players, above?

A comparison is difficult, because we drafted primary for offense in our first two drafts and the Colts drafted primarily for defense. What really stands out is that the Colts:

a) haven’t drafted early for the O-line in the last four years; and
b) half of their first day picks over the last four drafts have been DBs

Old Posting

And the news gets better for the Texans. In 2005, the Texans should keep all of their T12 (none will have four accrued years) and add 4 new members through the 2005 draft (1 first, 1 second and 2 thirds), giving them a total of 16 T12. Great news!


. . YR . . Texans (4 yrs)

F. .‘02 . QB David Carr
I . ’03 . WR Andre Johnson
R . ’04 . CB Dunta Robinson
S . ‘04 . LB Jason Babin
T . ’05 . . . . P I C K

S . ’02 . WR Jabar Gaffney
E . ’02 . OL Chester Pitts
C . ’03 . TE Benny Joppru
O . ’04 . RB Tony Hollings
N . ’05 . . . . P I C K
D

. . .‘02 . OL Fred Weary
T . ’02 . OL Charles Hill (released)
H . ’03 . LB Antwan Peek
I . .‘03 . OL Seth Wand
R . ‘03 . QB Dave Ragone
D . ’05 . . . . P I C K
. .. ’05 . . . . P I C K

 

[Mistril48]

I don't really have anything to update since this was first posted ...

 

[SandersIsTheFuture]

bob Sanders is a starter drafted on the first day and will be a probowler next year

 

[Mistril48]

I guess you are saying that Bashir and Sanders are the starters, not Bashir and Doss.

 

[Youngstown Colt]

I guess you are saying that Bashir and Sanders are the starters, not Bashir and Doss.

when helthy, bob starts over idrees. right now, he's not healthy