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Choose or lose: Lions have No. 1 pick -- for better or worse

Wolf

100% Texan
Casserly :lol:
I guess if anyone knows better, it is Casserly

ALLEN PARK -- Be warned, Lions fans: The life vest the NFL is about to toss you comes with hidden weights.

At 0-15 after Sunday's 42-7 loss to the Saints, the Lions clinched the No. 1 overall pick in April's draft. And while that could be the silver lining amid the dark clouds of this season's record-setting futility, there's also a catch.

"Some years, there isn't a first pick in the draft," said Charlie Casserly, a former NFL general manager with the Redskins and Texans. "So sometimes you can be unlucky as to the year and the talent."
In 2005, for instance, the 49ers cast their lot with Utah quarterback Alex Smith with the No. 1 pick, signing him to a six-year, $49.5 million contract with nearly half of that money guaranteed. Three injury-plagued seasons later, Smith has thrown just 19 touchdown passes with 31 interceptions, and he hasn't played a down since November 2007.

It's a cautionary tale, but it's hardly the only one in today's NFL, where top-end rookie salaries have skyrocketed over the last decade. Michigan's Jake Long signed a five-year, $57.75 million contract -- with $30 million guaranteed -- as last year's No. 1 pick. That trend hasn't gone unnoticed, either, as league owners and the NFL Players Association brace for a labor fight in 2010-11. Responding to Long's contract, among others, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell told the Associated Press in June, "There's something wrong about the system."

Likewise, if you think the easy solution is to simply trade the No. 1 pick for a stockpile of lower draft choices, think again.

"You can't trade the pick," said Casserly, now an analyst for CBS Sports. "There was a time you could. You can't trade it. Nobody wants it. Now, that's a generalization, I know. But it's holding true, because of the money involved."

http://www.detroitnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081223/SPORTS0101/812230331/1126/SPORTS0101
 
They could just let the clock run out ... as many times as they want, untill they get to a "ballpark" of a salary they want to pay
 
They could just let the clock run out ... as many times as they want, untill they get to a "ballpark" of a salary they want to pay

Problem is that the "insane salary and guaranteed money" isn't just the first pick or two anymore. It's traveling down, like last year with Harvey's holdout with JAX at #8. The salaries are so ridiculous up top that you might as well overpay for a player you'd like more than take the risk of spending a little less on a player you don't want as much. I can understand maybe a 1 or 2 pick drop by not doing anything if nobody will trade and the player they want won't go before... but that's a pretty risky move.
 
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Problem is that the "insane salary and guaranteed money" isn't just the first pick or two anymore. It's traveling down, like last year with Harvey's holdout with JAX at #8. The salaries are so ridiculous up top that you might as well overpay for a player you'd like more than take the risk of spending a little less on a player you don't want as much. I can understand maybe a 1 or 2 pick drop by not doing anything if nobody will trade and the player they want won't go before... but that's a pretty risky move.

That's why ever since HWSNBN flamed out I'm of the opinion that you take the line guy first. For every Matty Ryan there are three to five David Carrs. If Andre Smith runs his agility stuff OK at the combine and you believe he's the real deal, I'd wait on the Juniors coming out in 2010 there'll be a herd of them at QB. Everyone wants the triad. But no one wants a bust at QB. Draft the QB first is poison that takes three to five years to over come when you miss. Atlanta '09 success isn't such a mystery when you consider they hit their guy ....and went into the rebuild with two of our twos in their back pockets.

Can't trade out of the slot because of the value chart...pretty much stuck with writing the big check. Better be sure. I wonder if Detroit would take our 2010 2 and our one for the move up ?
 
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