JWLCASPER
Waterboy
Before I worked in football, before law school, before sharpening my skills over the years - I wrote little blurbs about players for fun. When Kubiak placed Keenum on the practice squad I was thrilled because I truly saw something when he was a Coog. He never became Brady 2.0, but a quarterback that has lasted 11 years in the league - his staying power has given me a nice smile and trip down memory lane in one of my first articles. Enjoy this nonsense gentlemen.
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A Case for Case In case
You are sitting in a dynasty league with your friends, looking at the season that could have been. It is week 14, and you are looking at a dynasty league roster that is loaded with old and brittle fantasy football commodities, (you didn't know how dynasty leagues work when you joined, it happens) you have a roster that needs to be totally rebuilt, and with a rookie draft class low on quarterbacks, staring at Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, and Mark Sanchez has to sting a little, but you are in luck by a catch, a fluke, just a hunch, whatever you want to call it, I will just call it my Case. What is my Case you ask? Case Keenum is my Case. Who you ask again, and I will tell you he is the all-time leader in passing yards in the NCAA. Did you hear his name last August in the NFL draft? No he wasn't selected. Is he about to replace Sanchez you ask? No, if only the Jets had such luck (no not Andrew). Don't you wish you would have had Tom Brady in a dynasty league when Brady replaced Bledsoe all those years ago. I am giving you a chance to have Case Keenum before someone else does. Case Keenum can be your Tom Brady. No one has any idea who he is outside of Houston, where he played both college football and where he now resides, on the Texans practice squad. Case Keenum, this guy can't be serious you say, but I am, and I want to give you a chance to take this leap of faith with me. Let me make my argument based on a few different factors that will come into play over these next few years that show that Case has as good of a chance to become Tom as Tom did.
SITUATION
Case Keenum is the practice team quarterback for the Houston Texans, for this year, but being one of Kubiak's pet projects, Case Keenum has the fast track to be Matt Schaub's heir apparent. I know you are wondering about T.J. Yates right now, but in both the NFL and in fantasy football we had a chance to see T.J. Yates last year, and over the course of 6 regular season games (11 through 17 which include all fantasy playoff formats) Yates presented us with this goldrush: 82/134 for 949 yards 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Over 6 games, T.J. Yates averaged 158 yards passing and .5 TD and .5 INT a game. That would give you a a fantasy score around 9 to 10 on a weekly basis, far from a quarterback you want to invest in for your fantasy team down the road. Remember, there is a big diffence in fantasy good (Cam and Romo) and real-life good (Rodgers and Brady). T.J. Yates is neither fantasy good nor NFL starting caliber, and he should be over-taken by Case Keenum for the number 2 QB roster spot by the start of next season. This is where the value in Case Keenum lies, because Schaub is an aging quarterback on a VERY good team that will be very good for the next 7-10 years barring no major collapse. Case Keenum could forseeably take over the Texan team in the next 2 to 3 years, depending on how many groin kicks and ear gashes and Lisfranc injuries Schaub has to deal with in that time span.
COLLEGE STATS
I want people to examine these stats, and not try to feel impressed when looking at Case Keenum's resume:
2007 Freshman: 187/273 68.5% 2259 yards 14 Touchdowns 10 Interceptions
2008 Sophomore: 397/589 67.4% 5020 yards 44 Touchdowns 11 Interceptions
2009 Junior: 492/700 70.3% 5671 yards 44 Touchdowns 15 Interceptions
2011 Senior: 428/603 71.0% 5631 yards 48 Touchdowns 5 Interceptions
Over the course of his college career (minus shortened 2010 injury season) that comes to:
1504/2165 69.5% 18581 yards 150 Touchdowns and 41 Interceptions
Whether you want to scream system quarterback or not, those numbers are impressive. To try and make these stats more fair, I want to compare Keenum to Luck, RGIII, and Rusell Wilson using their college stats but then applying those to a standard 35 pass attempt NFL game.
Keenum: 24/35 70% 296 yards 1.65 TD .66 INT
Luck: 23/35 67% 304 yards 1.77 TD .72 INT
RGIII: 23/35 67% 199 yards 1.51 TD .50 INT
Wilson: 21/35 60% 165 yards 1.54 TD .70 INT
If we were playing fantasy football based on college PASSING stats solely
Keenum = 21.74
Luck = 22.78
RGIII = 17.02
Wilson = 15.84
I say that in real life and in college fantasy land, Keenum matches up quite well based on his college performance.
DIVISION
I want to also look at these divisons over the next few years and the matchups these teams must face. If the NFL dynamic stays relatively similar, I see St. Louis, San Francisco, Arizona, and Seattle all maintaining very aggressive anti fantasy football quarterback defenses, limiting Russell Wilson's upside in the NFC West. RGIII must deal with Dallas, Philadelphia, and the New York Giants in what could very well continue being one of the toughest divisions in football. That leaves Luck and Keenum. Well unless you are playing in a Dynasty League with USC and Oregon fans, Andrew Luck is probably off the board, and he has to deal with Houston and their stout defense twice a year. Keenum will have to catch up to NFL speed against the very least scary of division rivals, the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans defenses.
WEAPONS
Playing the cards as they lie now, I want to look at the weapons at these quarterbacks' side. In Indy you have Luck with up and coming T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery, with an aging Reggie Wayne and college running mate Coby Fleener. These pieces look the part at times, but can they continue their rapid growth with Andrew leading the way, it is still up for debate.
In Seattle, Marshawn Lynch can only be ran into the ground for so many years before the wear and tear will catch up to his body, and more of the load will be put onto Wilson's shoulders. The problem is that of the quarterbacks listed, Wilson has the least to work with (Rice and Tate) at the current juncture.
In Washington we may be seeing the next great QB/WR combination in RGIII/Garcon if they are both able to stay healthy but that is a big if. Throw in a healthy Fred Davis, ageless wonder Santana Moss, an improving Alfred Morris, and great offensive scheming by the Shanahans, RGIII is definately in a position to continue to be fantasy money for a long time.
If Keenum gets his number called as Tom did so many years ago, he could walk into a situation that couldn't have been written any better. Local Houston kid doesn't get scholarship, breaks record of the University of Houston. Keenum doesn't get drafted, now he is the Superbowl MVP. With Arian Foster leading the way in the backfield, and a top 10 league defense, Keenum will get to be eased into the system unlike Schaub, who learned on the fly without a run game and no defense. Add in a young playmaking WR as expected to become Andre Johnson's heir apparent, and Keenum could have a very similar offense to what we see today from Houston, and that is one of the most balanced offensive attacks in football.
WHAT THIS ALL MEANS
Go get Case Keenum off of the board before Tom Brady 2.0 happens. Do you remember what you were doing when Tom Brady first entered his first NFL game? You and I may not, but the Jets/Bills/Dolphins fans sure can tell you.
With one last gasp I ask you to go look at Keenum. You don't have to believe me, and he may not be the next Tom Brady, but he will come a lot cheaper than Luck, RGIII, Wilson. Keenum will be cheaper than Matt Barkley and Geno Smith to start next year, its a given. So why not take a chance on a player that seems to keep getting looked over. Tom Brady kept getting looked over too.
Look at it this way, the Patriots invested a sixth round pick on Tom Brady, his value lower than the likes of Chad Pennington, Tee Martin, and Giovanni Carmazzi. Go get Keenum for pennies. Who knows, Luck=Pennington RGIII=Tee Martin and Russell Wilson=Giovanni Carmazzi.
And there you sit with Tom Brady 2.0 for pennies ....Just in case.
——
A Case for Case In case
You are sitting in a dynasty league with your friends, looking at the season that could have been. It is week 14, and you are looking at a dynasty league roster that is loaded with old and brittle fantasy football commodities, (you didn't know how dynasty leagues work when you joined, it happens) you have a roster that needs to be totally rebuilt, and with a rookie draft class low on quarterbacks, staring at Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, and Mark Sanchez has to sting a little, but you are in luck by a catch, a fluke, just a hunch, whatever you want to call it, I will just call it my Case. What is my Case you ask? Case Keenum is my Case. Who you ask again, and I will tell you he is the all-time leader in passing yards in the NCAA. Did you hear his name last August in the NFL draft? No he wasn't selected. Is he about to replace Sanchez you ask? No, if only the Jets had such luck (no not Andrew). Don't you wish you would have had Tom Brady in a dynasty league when Brady replaced Bledsoe all those years ago. I am giving you a chance to have Case Keenum before someone else does. Case Keenum can be your Tom Brady. No one has any idea who he is outside of Houston, where he played both college football and where he now resides, on the Texans practice squad. Case Keenum, this guy can't be serious you say, but I am, and I want to give you a chance to take this leap of faith with me. Let me make my argument based on a few different factors that will come into play over these next few years that show that Case has as good of a chance to become Tom as Tom did.
SITUATION
Case Keenum is the practice team quarterback for the Houston Texans, for this year, but being one of Kubiak's pet projects, Case Keenum has the fast track to be Matt Schaub's heir apparent. I know you are wondering about T.J. Yates right now, but in both the NFL and in fantasy football we had a chance to see T.J. Yates last year, and over the course of 6 regular season games (11 through 17 which include all fantasy playoff formats) Yates presented us with this goldrush: 82/134 for 949 yards 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Over 6 games, T.J. Yates averaged 158 yards passing and .5 TD and .5 INT a game. That would give you a a fantasy score around 9 to 10 on a weekly basis, far from a quarterback you want to invest in for your fantasy team down the road. Remember, there is a big diffence in fantasy good (Cam and Romo) and real-life good (Rodgers and Brady). T.J. Yates is neither fantasy good nor NFL starting caliber, and he should be over-taken by Case Keenum for the number 2 QB roster spot by the start of next season. This is where the value in Case Keenum lies, because Schaub is an aging quarterback on a VERY good team that will be very good for the next 7-10 years barring no major collapse. Case Keenum could forseeably take over the Texan team in the next 2 to 3 years, depending on how many groin kicks and ear gashes and Lisfranc injuries Schaub has to deal with in that time span.
COLLEGE STATS
I want people to examine these stats, and not try to feel impressed when looking at Case Keenum's resume:
2007 Freshman: 187/273 68.5% 2259 yards 14 Touchdowns 10 Interceptions
2008 Sophomore: 397/589 67.4% 5020 yards 44 Touchdowns 11 Interceptions
2009 Junior: 492/700 70.3% 5671 yards 44 Touchdowns 15 Interceptions
2011 Senior: 428/603 71.0% 5631 yards 48 Touchdowns 5 Interceptions
Over the course of his college career (minus shortened 2010 injury season) that comes to:
1504/2165 69.5% 18581 yards 150 Touchdowns and 41 Interceptions
Whether you want to scream system quarterback or not, those numbers are impressive. To try and make these stats more fair, I want to compare Keenum to Luck, RGIII, and Rusell Wilson using their college stats but then applying those to a standard 35 pass attempt NFL game.
Keenum: 24/35 70% 296 yards 1.65 TD .66 INT
Luck: 23/35 67% 304 yards 1.77 TD .72 INT
RGIII: 23/35 67% 199 yards 1.51 TD .50 INT
Wilson: 21/35 60% 165 yards 1.54 TD .70 INT
If we were playing fantasy football based on college PASSING stats solely
Keenum = 21.74
Luck = 22.78
RGIII = 17.02
Wilson = 15.84
I say that in real life and in college fantasy land, Keenum matches up quite well based on his college performance.
DIVISION
I want to also look at these divisons over the next few years and the matchups these teams must face. If the NFL dynamic stays relatively similar, I see St. Louis, San Francisco, Arizona, and Seattle all maintaining very aggressive anti fantasy football quarterback defenses, limiting Russell Wilson's upside in the NFC West. RGIII must deal with Dallas, Philadelphia, and the New York Giants in what could very well continue being one of the toughest divisions in football. That leaves Luck and Keenum. Well unless you are playing in a Dynasty League with USC and Oregon fans, Andrew Luck is probably off the board, and he has to deal with Houston and their stout defense twice a year. Keenum will have to catch up to NFL speed against the very least scary of division rivals, the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans defenses.
WEAPONS
Playing the cards as they lie now, I want to look at the weapons at these quarterbacks' side. In Indy you have Luck with up and coming T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery, with an aging Reggie Wayne and college running mate Coby Fleener. These pieces look the part at times, but can they continue their rapid growth with Andrew leading the way, it is still up for debate.
In Seattle, Marshawn Lynch can only be ran into the ground for so many years before the wear and tear will catch up to his body, and more of the load will be put onto Wilson's shoulders. The problem is that of the quarterbacks listed, Wilson has the least to work with (Rice and Tate) at the current juncture.
In Washington we may be seeing the next great QB/WR combination in RGIII/Garcon if they are both able to stay healthy but that is a big if. Throw in a healthy Fred Davis, ageless wonder Santana Moss, an improving Alfred Morris, and great offensive scheming by the Shanahans, RGIII is definately in a position to continue to be fantasy money for a long time.
If Keenum gets his number called as Tom did so many years ago, he could walk into a situation that couldn't have been written any better. Local Houston kid doesn't get scholarship, breaks record of the University of Houston. Keenum doesn't get drafted, now he is the Superbowl MVP. With Arian Foster leading the way in the backfield, and a top 10 league defense, Keenum will get to be eased into the system unlike Schaub, who learned on the fly without a run game and no defense. Add in a young playmaking WR as expected to become Andre Johnson's heir apparent, and Keenum could have a very similar offense to what we see today from Houston, and that is one of the most balanced offensive attacks in football.
WHAT THIS ALL MEANS
Go get Case Keenum off of the board before Tom Brady 2.0 happens. Do you remember what you were doing when Tom Brady first entered his first NFL game? You and I may not, but the Jets/Bills/Dolphins fans sure can tell you.
With one last gasp I ask you to go look at Keenum. You don't have to believe me, and he may not be the next Tom Brady, but he will come a lot cheaper than Luck, RGIII, Wilson. Keenum will be cheaper than Matt Barkley and Geno Smith to start next year, its a given. So why not take a chance on a player that seems to keep getting looked over. Tom Brady kept getting looked over too.
Look at it this way, the Patriots invested a sixth round pick on Tom Brady, his value lower than the likes of Chad Pennington, Tee Martin, and Giovanni Carmazzi. Go get Keenum for pennies. Who knows, Luck=Pennington RGIII=Tee Martin and Russell Wilson=Giovanni Carmazzi.
And there you sit with Tom Brady 2.0 for pennies ....Just in case.