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bah007 First Round Grades

bah007

bah007

Hall of Fame
Here are my first rounds grades for this year's draft. I haven't had as much time to study guys in the later rounds this year but I've gotten pretty comfortable with the guys in the first 3-4 rounds.

I have 20 guys rated solidly in the first round this year, which is pretty normal. Most drafts have between 18-24. I have them rated in a numerical order but that really doesn't matter so much. It's just a way of ordering the tier. All of these guys are worth a first round pick.

FIRST ROUND GRADE
1. Josh Allen – EDGE, Kentucky
2. Quinnen Williams – DL, Alabama
3. T.J. Hockenson – TE, Iowa
4. Brian Burns – EDGE, Florida St
5. Nick Bosa – EDGE, Ohio St
6. Ed Oliver – DL, Houston
7. Clelin Ferrell – EDGE, Clemson
8. Devin White – LB, LSU
9. Andre Dillard – OT, Washington St
10. Montez Sweat – EDGE, Mississippi St
11. Devin Bush – LB, Michigan
12. Jonah Williams – OT, Alabama
13. Garrett Bradbury – OL, North Carolina St
14. Dwayne Haskins – QB, Ohio St
15. Andy Isabella – WR, Massachusetts
16. Byron Murphy – CB, Washington
17. N’Keal Harry – WR, Arizona St
18. Christian Wilkins – DL, Clemson
19. A.J. Brown – WR, Mississippi
20. Juan Thornhill – S, Virginia

This next group of guys are my fringe guys. These guys are not necessarily first round talents, but you could definitely make an argument for taking them in the first round once your top 20 are gone or if one of these guys hits a definite need and you can't move back in the draft at all.

FRINGE FIRST ROUNDERS
21. Julian Love – CB, Notre Dame
22. Jeffery Simmons – DL, Mississippi St
23. Greedy Williams – CB, LSU
24. Jerry Tillery – DL, Notre Dame
25. Tytus Howard – OT, Alabama St
26. Deandre Baker – CB, Georgia
27. Noah Fant – TE, Iowa
28. Rashan Gary – DL, Michigan
29. Darnell Savage – S, Maryland
30. Jawaan Taylor – OT, Florida
31. Kyler Murray – QB, Oklahoma
32. Josh Jacobs – RB, Alabama
33. Dexter Lawrence – DL, Clemson
34. Cody Ford – OL, Oklahoma
35. Hakeem Butler – WR, Iowa St
36. D.K. Metcalf – WR, Mississippi
 
Great list! Interesting you have Tytus Howard rated so high. I’m a bit skeptical due to level of competition. How do you feel about him in relation to our small school fuy Davenport? More immediate impact player or still a project?
 
If Greedy is there then he's the pick.

Interesting that you have Howard rated so high and no McGarry/Risner or Little.

Good to see you back

How's the little one?

PM me.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Great list! Interesting you have Tytus Howard rated so high. I’m a bit skeptical due to level of competition. How do you feel about him in relation to our small school fuy Davenport? More immediate impact player or still a project?
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I'm with you Joker. I have questions about Howard (Lateral quickness, level of competition, etc...) and would be concerned if the Texans picked him at #23. I look at him as more of a project that will take a couple of years before he's ready to play at a decent NFL level. If he's there in the 3rd round then I think the value is there. JMO.
 
And I thought I was the high guy in Brian Burns. I would love to see this guy in a Texans uniform. He would bring so much versatility to the defense.

The guy I’m still high on and everybody has cooled on is Trayvon Mullen. I would only put Greedy ahead of him, and I think Mullen could be a better pro in the long run. Interested in what the league thinks about him next week.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Great list! Interesting you have Tytus Howard rated so high. I’m a bit skeptical due to level of competition. How do you feel about him in relation to our small school fuy Davenport? More immediate impact player or still a project?
Click to expand...

Still a project to some degree but I think he has a better foundation of skills to work with.

Below the waist, I think he is set to become a great pass protector. Just needs to get stronger and clean up technique with his arms and hands. I love his background as a three sport athlete and also former QB and TE.
 
steelbtexan said:
If Greedy is there then he's the pick.

Interesting that you have Howard rated so high and no McGarry/Risner or Little.

Good to see you back

How's the little one?

PM me.
Click to expand...

Not high on McGary at all. I think he is really going to struggle on the edge and get forced inside.

I like Risner. He's a second round guy to me, just off this top tier.

Little scares me. I've watched him plenty but I don't get the hype. I'd draft him, but not where people are saying he'll go. I don't see a really high ceiling.
 
Lucky said:
And I thought I was the high guy in Brian Burns. I would love to see this guy in a Texans uniform. He would bring so much versatility to the defense.

The guy I’m still high on and everybody has cooled on is Trayvon Mullen. I would only put Greedy ahead of him, and I think Mullen could be a better pro in the long run. Interested in what the league thinks about him next week.
Click to expand...

Some see Burns as a one trick pony but that one trick is more valuable in the pros than it is in college. I swear he was breathing down the QB's neck on nearly every pass rushing rep he had this past season. Didn't always finish but he is impacting plays.

I was high on Mullen's potential last year and cooled off on him this year. Still like him, but don't love him.
 
bah007 said:
Not high on McGary at all. I think he is really going to struggle on the edge and get forced inside.

I like Risner. He's a second round guy to me, just off this top tier.

Little scares me. I've watched him plenty but I don't get the hype. I'd draft him, but not where people are saying he'll go. I don't see a really high ceiling.
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McGary gets tangled in trash too much to kick inside, be waste of abilities, better in space and can reach 2nd level. 33” arms are shorter than ideal, reminds me of Eric Winston, but knee bend, balance is very stable, he looks natural and fluid to left or right.

Risner doesn’t have a lot of holes just limited range but still best suited right side.

Little was dominant talent entering college and just hasn’t developed skill set significantly. Like to see more polish, just great measureables.
 
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Lucky said:
And I thought I was the high guy in Brian Burns. I would love to see this guy in a Texans uniform. He would bring so much versatility to the defense.

The guy I’m still high on and everybody has cooled on is Trayvon Mullen. I would only put Greedy ahead of him, and I think Mullen could be a better pro in the long run. Interested in what the league thinks about him next week.
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I've been on the Trayvon Mullen bandwagon since the end of the season. If he falls b/c of other teams uncertainty, then I'd be ecstatic if he's there at 54 (22). I'd also be onboard with JoeJuan Williams at 55 (23) who I'd quickly convert to SS for his NFL career. In RD3, I wouldn't hesitate to take Isaiah Johnson. This could set the defensive backfield up with solid young talent for the next 4-8+ years. They'd either compete and take jobs this season or backup starters who will more than likely move on next season.

I wouldn't mind this level of commitment to the defense in this draft.
 
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Lucky said:
And I thought I was the high guy in Brian Burns. I would love to see this guy in a Texans uniform. He would bring so much versatility to the defense.

The guy I’m still high on and everybody has cooled on is Trayvon Mullen. I would only put Greedy ahead of him, and I think Mullen could be a better pro in the long run. Interested in what the league thinks about him next week.
Click to expand...

Burns is one one of my favorite players in this draft. Mullen should be a first rounder. He was asked to play on an island more than any other CB in this draft and handled it well. He has true outside man abilities.
 
mussop said:
Burns is one one of my favorite players in this draft. Mullen should be a first rounder. He was asked to play on an island more than any other CB in this draft and handled it well. He has true outside man abilities.
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I'm not as high on Burns as most. I see hi as a Leonard Floyd type player. A really good player but not a differencemaker.
 
AngryNateFTW said:
For what it's worth, Jayson Braddock says Tytus Howard should be our pick at 23 but he thinks we will settle for Cody Ford.

To be honest, I don't want either player at 23.
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I would take Ford. Has a mean streak which is a must in an OL. One pundit said you need to hire a Taxi to get around him.
I would not be surprised to see him a Texan next Thursday night.
The other is Dexter Lawrence.
 
steelbtexan said:
I'm not as high on Burns as most. I see hi as a Leonard Floyd type player. A really good player but not a differencemaker.
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Body type, yes. Burns is long and lean, like Floyd. But Floyd doesn't have Burns' lateral movement. Or his football instincts. Burns will have some limitations as a pass rusher. But, he can affect the game as a coverage LB against a TE or in zone coverage. The Texans have never had a 34 OLB like Burns. I don't think it matters, as Burns is extremely likely off the board by #23.
 
Lucky said:
Body type, yes. Burns is long and lean, like Floyd. But Floyd doesn't have Burns' lateral movement. Or his football instincts. Burns will have some limitations as a pass rusher. But, he can affect the game as a coverage LB against a TE or in zone coverage. The Texans have never had a 34 OLB like Burns. I don't think it matters, as Burns is extremely likely off the board by #23.
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I had Burns going to the Ravens #22!
Dillard to the Panthers #16.
 
bah007 said:
Here are my first rounds grades for this year's draft. I haven't had as much time to study guys in the later rounds this year but I've gotten pretty comfortable with the guys in the first 3-4 rounds.

I have 20 guys rated solidly in the first round this year, which is pretty normal. Most drafts have between 18-24. I have them rated in a numerical order but that really doesn't matter so much. It's just a way of ordering the tier. All of these guys are worth a first round pick.
Click to expand...

I always enjoy your work. Can you weigh in on what it might take for the Texans to land Dillard? Essentially how high should he go? Secondly, do you think Dillard is worth that cost, and would it make more sense to sit at 23 and take a player like Ford, or heaven forbid another position BPA?
 
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