Badboy's BYE week Mock

[badboy]

First round picks always give me trouble as you want a starter & that pick sets the flow for the other rounds. Most of us agree in what we need just not necessarily the order. Unless the defense has a drastic change, I am drafting heavily to fix that. Until recently I have been hyping FS but neither Rahim or Deunta Williams have lived up to my expectations the latter just now back on field after a suspension. While that was agent related and not a big negative for me, he was still not on the field. CB is deep in 2011 and I get my cover corner there. Only two DTs are rated (so far) for a 1st round selection and I am hopefull that my guy is there #25.

1. DT Nick Fairley Auburn 6'5" 300 sub 5.0 this bundle of nitroglycerin has 7 1/2 sacks after 8 games. Walterfootball.com has him as a "conservative" second round who would move up with good combine and finish season well. If not there, I'd prob draft a DE here and go DT with his team mate in 5th like Beerlover suggests. Pair Fairley with Okoye and see both do well. Barwin and Mario would benefit.

2. CB Jimmy Smith Colorado 6'2" 205 4.49 and "cover" skills. Bump KJ to other side and move Quin to FS. I look for better CB but this Smith sticks.

3. QB Nathan Enderle Idaho 6'5" 227 good passer & accurate runs a PRO offense. Both our subs now will be gone 2011. "Statistically impressive as a junior, Nathan Enderle had 2,906 yards, 22 touchdowns and nine picks as a junior on a 9.3 YPA and 61.5 completion percentage." Walterfootball.com

4. FS Chris Culliver South Carolina 6'1" 201 4.47 I just began watching him late last season 2009: 12 g starter 62 tackles (3TFL) 9 breakups. I do not see Kubes moving Quin and Nolan should start but this guy is really good. Culliver was moved to CB this season and few QBs look his way. Might be there in 5th but I take him here. True CB/FS. That size/speed! Avg 22.5 with 26 kick returns.

5. DE Ryan Winterswyck Boise St. 6'4" 264 4.66 I have been a Sam Acho fan but RW has quietly snuck up on me. After 8 games in 2010 he has 11.5 TFL 4.5 sacks to consistently succeed 2009 9 sacks and 17 TFLs. Yeah I know the schedule, blah blah blah.

6. ILB Casey Matthews Oregon 6'2" 235 4.76 in 2009 81 tackles 4.4 TFLs, 3 sacks and 5 pass breakups. I love this family!

7. SS Chris Prosinski Wyoming 6'1" 209 4.54 can play FS & boy loves to hit. 140 tackles 4 TFL and 6 pass breakups. I'll take that at this pick.

 

[beerlover]

First round picks always give me trouble as you want a starter & that pick sets the flow for the other rounds. Most of us agree in what we need just not necessarily the order. Unless the defense has a drastic change, I am drafting heavily to fix that. Until recently I have been hyping FS but neither Rahim or Deunta Williams have lived up to my expectations the latter just now back on field after a suspension. While that was agent related and not a big negative for me, he was still not on the field. CB is deep in 2011 and I get my cover corner there. Only two DTs are rated (so far) for a 1st round selection and I am hopefull that my guy is there #25.

1. DT Nick Fairley Auburn 6'5" 300 sub 5.0 this bundle of nitroglycerin has 7 1/2 sacks after 8 games. Walterfootball.com has him as a "conservative" second round who would move up with good combine and finish season well. If not there, I'd prob draft a DE here and go DT with his team mate in 5th like Beerlover suggests. Pair Fairley with Okoye and see both do well. Barwin and Mario would benefit.

2. CB Jimmy Smith Colorado 6'2" 205 4.49 and "cover" skills. Bump KJ to other side and move Quin to FS. I look for better CB but this Smith sticks.

3. QB Nathan Enderle Idaho 6'5" 227 good passer & accurate runs a PRO offense. Both our subs now will be gone 2011. "Statistically impressive as a junior, Nathan Enderle had 2,906 yards, 22 touchdowns and nine picks as a junior on a 9.3 YPA and 61.5 completion percentage." Walterfootball.com

4. FS Chris Culliver South Carolina 6'1" 201 4.47 I just began watching him late last season 2009: 12 g starter 62 tackles (3TFL) 9 breakups. I do not see Kubes moving Quin and Nolan should start but this guy is really good. Culliver was moved to CB this season and few QBs look his way. Might be there in 5th but I take him here. True CB/FS. That size/speed! Avg 22.5 with 26 kick returns.

5. DE Ryan Winterswyck Boise St. 6'4" 264 4.66 I have been a Sam Acho fan but RW has quietly snuck up on me. After 8 games in 2010 he has 11.5 TFL 4.5 sacks to consistently succeed 2009 9 sacks and 17 TFLs. Yeah I know the schedule, blah blah blah.

6. ILB Casey Matthews Oregon 6'2" 235 4.76 in 2009 81 tackles 4.4 TFLs, 3 sacks and 5 pass breakups. I love this family!

7. SS Chris Prosinski Wyoming 6'1" 209 4.54 can play FS & boy loves to hit. 140 tackles 4 TFL and 6 pass breakups. I'll take that at this pick.

Hope you take this as constructive criticism, not trying to be negative, as always respect your opinion. Like fact your addressing DL, secondary, quality back-up QB to develop, project DE & LB depth. But just off the top of my head here is my take -

• 1 Fairley is an underclassman, if he comes out it will be because he is projected higher.
  
• 2 Jimmy Smith could convert into a fine FS too
  
• 3 Nathan Enderle would be a nice fit if Kubiak felt secure enough to spend this high of pick on a QB?
  
• 4 Chris Culliver can play CB, adds value to his stock.
• 5 Ryan Winterswyck seems more like a special teams terror who gets spot duty & adds depth in case of injury.
  
• 6 Casey might have to moved higher in my own mock as well. For a team who needs a capable back-up & help on special teams, might wind up going in the 5th rd.
  
• 7 Chris Prosinski is a fringe 7th round pick, can't see him providing a huge lift to secondary behind Pollard, Barber & Torri Williams who they have already stashed on practice squad.
  

 

[badboy]

Hope you take this as constructive criticism, not trying to be negative, as always respect your opinion. Like fact your addressing DL, secondary, quality back-up QB to develop, project DE & LB depth. But just off the top of my head here is my take -

• 1 Fairley is an underclassman, if he comes out it will be because he is projected higher.
  
• 2 Jimmy Smith could convert into a fine FS too
  
• 3 Nathan Enderle would be a nice fit if Kubiak felt secure enough to spend this high of pick on a QB?
  
• 4 Chris Culliver can play CB, adds value to his stock.
• 5 Ryan Winterswyck seems more like a special teams terror who gets spot duty & adds depth in case of injury.
  
• 6 Casey might have to moved higher in my own mock as well. For a team who needs a capable back-up & help on special teams, might wind up going in the 5th rd.
  
• 7 Chris Prosinski is a fringe 7th round pick, can't see him providing a huge lift to secondary behind Pollard, Barber & Torri Williams who they have already stashed on practice squad.
  

Thanks for input. Criticism helps me to refine my decisions before I grab a gun and start looking for you. lol.

Agree with your comments on Fairly and I have actually agonized over putting him @ #25. Unless he is a hog for college fame, he as any good athlete needs to get to NFl as soon as his basic skills allow. Kareem Jackson is finding out no how good the college coach or "pro game plan" is, NFL different animal. Also, just because he gets a higher first round eval by NFL draft committee, like others we have seen, he could fall. At this stage since I can find no evaluation I respect that rates him higher I am going to pray he is there. I do understand your point.

QB: I am willing to believe that by the off season, Gary will realize Orslvsky is not our answer @ #2. The "other" Matt will do a Grossman and sign elsewhere. Normal Kubiak philosophy is to low ball a project in the draft or pick another reject. Maybe he will wake up and say we need to go get a guy that can be Danny WHite to Roger Staubach. As I've posted and we've discussed, I will probably post final mock based on what I think Texans should not would do.

CB/FS both Smith and Culliver playing both really deepens the pot. I had another CB in 3rd but went with QB keeping that in mind. Our Dbacks are pretty raw or plain bad.

Prosinski to replace Barber on my roster as SS but can play FS.

 

[Wolf6151]

I actually have less confidence in the Texans season that you do and think that we pick in the area of 16-18 and thus think that Nick Fairley-DT is a legitimate possibility and a very good pick in the 1st round. I like Culliver in the 4th, good size and speed and Smith in the 2nd round isn't a bad pick. The rest ehhhhhh.

 

[badboy]

I actually have less confidence in the Texans season that you do and think that we pick in the area of 16-18 and thus think that Nick Fairley-DT is a legitimate possibility and a very good pick in the 1st round. I like Culliver in the 4th, good size and speed and Smith in the 2nd round isn't a bad pick. The rest ehhhhhh.

Good morning Wolf & thanks for your comments. I think Colts game Monday will impact their season. If they come out flat...but I think they will play very hard and well. Indy is missing some key players and we should run successfully against them again. I think their DC will adjust to our run allowing our WR (JJ) to succeed. I think the pressure is on for Houston to win their division to make it to playoffs and they need that pressure. I believe if we select below #20 McNAir should fire Kubiak.

 

[Wolf6151]

Good morning Wolf & thanks for your comments. I think Colts game Monday will impact their season. If they come out flat...but I think they will play very hard and well. Indy is missing some key players and we should run successfully against them again. I think their DC will adjust to our run allowing our WR (JJ) to succeed. I think the pressure is on for Houston to win their division to make it to playoffs and they need that pressure. I believe if we select below #20 McNAir should fire Kubiak.

I couldn't agree with you more. This Indy game is very critical and will set the tone for the rest of our season. If we lose then it's going to be a very long second half of the season and we'll most likely be picking in the mid teens area. If we win then it could give the team a shot of confidence that they need, but there's still alot of really good teams ahead. We are also missing some key players and I don't think that our running game will surprise Indy like it did in week 1 and I think they're coaching staff is smart enough to figure us out by now. I think Indy is at home, our secondary sucks, they still have #18, and I think we lose this game setting us up for the remainder of the year. I agree that McNair should send Kubiak packing if we don't make the playoffs but I thought that last year as well and we're probably a worse team than we were then with a much tougher schedule. I've been thinking for a while now that McNair talks a good game but really doesn't care if we win or lose as long as the stadium is full. I think Nick Fairley-DT is a very probable pick and wouldn't mind if they went all defense in this draft.

I've noticed that since Kubiak took over the team our overall talent level has gotten better but we've built quality and depth on offense while ignoring the defense. We've got quality and depth at WR, TE, RB, OT, and arguably QB, but we've got no good depth anywhere on defense. We need another 2006 type of draft, but all defense.

 

[badboy]

I think Kubiak's scouts evaluate college guys well but when they select a defensive player, the player is used differently than they should be. Let me explain as this seems muddled as I type. Kareem Jackson is a primary although not the only example. Historically, Gary has used safeties (Barber/ Nolan types) and corners like Quin, KJ and Dunta R that are good within 10-15 yards and love to hit rather than a cover type corner. In other words, Kube's defense plays more to defeat the run with LBs and DBs playing towards the LOS. He has LBs and often a Dlineman going into coverage against WRs or TEs. It works sometimes but often does not. This usually leads to short yardage gains against Texans unless the QB challenges the CBs deep. Proof is that DR and Reeves did pretty well bump and run but often were a few steps off if WR blew past them. This is my concern with KJ. Unlike DR, Jackson does have speed and quickness to shadow the receiver IF he does not miss the bump or gets faked out of his cleats. Hopefully seasoning will make up for some of his less than expected productivity.

Kubes also likes lighter faster DTs like Okoye and Mitchell who do fairly well disrupting the QB in college then tend to get blocked a lot in NFL. As a DT being fast only helps if you get past the blocker or can tie up more than one opponent. I think selecting Frank Okam was a huge mistake as the guy just did not have a motor. Now he is gone, Gary can point to him and say "that heavier guy did not work." I'd really like to see how a better DT with a 1st or 2nd round grade would do. Another problem for our D line now is the DBs are so bad (regardless of why) the DC has to choose to help out on passes leaving the middle open or our team risks giving up long TDs which might effect our young guys. I think this is one of reasons veteran Eugene Wilson has been able to hold on.

Remarkably, my concern is not so much if we lose to Indy but if we win and the team eases up on rest of schedule. This team has never been able to focus on :the next game" and play 4 quarters. If they did only that we just might have a SB contender especially this year with teams like Colts and Dallas not doing well.

 

[Wolf6151]

I agree with your original thought in the 1st post, the first round pick is the hardest since it sets the tone for the rest of the draft and makes you decide what your highest priority is. Vert tough decision. I've felt that the highest priority is the O-line but honestly they aren't playing all that bad this year and aren't the highest priority in 2011. So it comes down to DT or CB for me and I believe you should build the team through the trenches first but 2011 will be a great year for CB's. I really like Nick Fairley-DT but honestly I'd prefer Prince Amukamara-CB if we're able to trade up or Brandon Harris-CB if we're not able to trade up. I think both are going to be great cover corners and we need that type of corner, not just a bunch of hitters. How much would it cost us to trade up for Amukamara? I also think that 1st round DT's have a higher bust factor and that DT is a position that usually requires a player a couple years to mature into.

I also agree that we don't seem to use players to their strengths and that a bunch of hitters in the secondary instead of guys that can cover is retarded. The CB's should be cover guys and the Safeties should be hitters.

 

[badboy]

I agree with your original thought in the 1st post, the first round pick is the hardest since it sets the tone for the rest of the draft and makes you decide what your highest priority is. Vert tough decision. I've felt that the highest priority is the O-line but honestly they aren't playing all that bad this year and aren't the highest priority in 2011. So it comes down to DT or CB for me and I believe you should build the team through the trenches first but 2011 will be a great year for CB's. I really like Nick Fairley-DT but honestly I'd prefer Prince Amukamara-CB if we're able to trade up or Brandon Harris-CB if we're not able to trade up. I think both are going to be great cover corners and we need that type of corner, not just a bunch of hitters. How much would it cost us to trade up for Amukamara? I also think that 1st round DT's have a higher bust factor and that DT is a position that usually requires a player a couple years to mature into.

I also agree that we don't seem to use players to their strengths and that a bunch of hitters in the secondary instead of guys that can cover is retarded. The CB's should be cover guys and the Safeties should be hitters.

i don't see Smith trading up in first round. I have limited game time on Prince but I have not seen anything separating him from the other first round candidates. Harris is probably the only player I'd take in first but I want to think on that as Fairly may not be there and I don't see a free safety I like in first. If that scenario happened, probably go BPA.