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A really chilling thought...

The Pencil Neck

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
I was reading the Who Has More to Prove thread and read the following:

HeartofHouston said:
<snip>... Better offensive system and a better Offensive coach if he doesnt produce this year then we draft a QB in the 07 draft and give Carr that next year and if he starts to struggle pull him for the rook, if he does a good job then he we keep him in and the decision is up in the air from there..
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Two words: Brian Billick.

We're all so happy (at least, I am) about Kubiak, an offensive guru, coming in here and how he's going to breathe life into an offense that looked like a bunch of zombies last year. But Brian Billick was brought into Baltimore for the same basic reason. He's supposed to be an offensive genius, a bigger offensive genius than Kubiak, and he hasn't been able to do squat for that offense in all these years. Granted, he won an SB but he's had years to work with different QB's and make his high powered system work... and... nada.

I also remember how Belichik was brought into Cleveland and sucked wind. Hugh Campbell was supposed to be an offensive genius and the old Oiler fans will remember how that turned out; at least we got Moon out of that deal.

What do y'all think the odds are that Kubiak ends up being a "bust"?
 
Well, just about all coaches "end up" being fired, i.e. busts. The odds of it being in 4 years or less? I'd say low, judging by attitude and leadership as much as track record.
 
What do y'all think the odds are that Kubiak ends up being a "bust"?
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I'm not really worried about Kubiak. I've just lost faith in Carr. I really hope things can get turned around though.
 
It is really hard to predict if Kubiak will be a bust or not.

Sure he has worked at two great organizations, but he wasn't the top dog. Look at many assistant coaches that couldn't cut it at the head coach level. Turner and Wandestat come to mind quickly.

One thing seems certain from what he has said, if a player doesn't perform, that player will be replaced quickly. Look for big changes if it is a rough year.

For a rookie head coach, his first six games are brutal. If he can get through the first six games at .500, I would say that is a great indication of good things to come in the next few years.
 
Based on his background and experence the odds are with him suceeding. However, anyone and anything can be overcome by circumstances and just bad luck.
 
hollywood_texan said:
It is really hard to predict if Kubiak will be a bust or not.

Sure he has worked at two great organizations, but he wasn't the top dog. Look at many assistant coaches that couldn't cut it at the head coach level. Turner and Wandestat come to mind quickly.

One thing seems certain from what he has said, if a player doesn't perform, that player will be replaced quickly. Look for big changes if it is a rough year.

For a rookie head coach, his first six games are brutal. If he can get through the first six games at .500, I would say that is a great indication of good things to come in the next few years.
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Everybody sits and talks about how a winning QB has to have "IT", that certain something that makes them a winner and a leader.

I believe the same goes for head coaches. You have brilliant assistants that fail all the time (you might as well add Capers to that list) and I believe its because of their charisma. You have to be a charismatic person that can unite and motivate players. You can speak X's and O's all day, any assistant in this league can speak it with the best of them, but the things that set a great assistant apart from a head coach is his ability to lead. Kubiak has already shown me he has that quality, he says all the right things and seems very approachable and down to earth. You can already see the difference in the players' attitudes.

Also another thing that I think that makes a head coach successful, is to have successful coaches underneath him and not just a whole bunch of "yes men", (Capers).

Kubiak already seems like he's put together a good staff, he kept the assistants that were doing their job, Jon Hoke, Joe Marciano, and Chick Harris and brought along coaches that helped him be successful, people he trusts.

The biggest addition to our staff however was Sherman, who Kubiak really went after and landed.

Kubiak should have been given a shot at head coaching eight years ago (after the SB victories), he is alot more seasoned and experienced them most coaches that get a shot, his résumé is quite impressive.
 
Two words: Super Bowl

If Kubiak can mirror Billick, then bring it. I can't wait for our first Super Bowl win in 2007.
 
Billick went to the Super Bowl in a large way because of Marv Lewis. Richard Smith is no Marv.
 
It wasn't just Marv, but the players they had on that defense, that defense was stacked with veteren leadership and very exciting young defensive stars
 
Odds are that he fails. But that doesn't really mean much I suppose.

We have 10 new head coaches this season. Several of them former assistants.

By the numbers, more fail then succed just purely because there are more teams that fail to make the playoffs then make it.

So in the end the odds are against every single assistant coach coming into a head coach job ( not just Kubiak ).
 
Carr Bomb said:
It wasn't just Marv, but the players they had on that defense, that defense was stacked with veteren leadership and very exciting young defensive stars
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I thought that kind of went without saying, but ok.
 
Being a head coach isn't for everyone. Dom Capers (yes I hate bringing him up but oh well) was a pretty good D-Coordinator but when he was put in charge of a whole team he sucked it up twice, so who knows at this point. Everything we've been hearing thusfar sounds very positive, so I firmly believe that Kubiak will be successful for us, but only time will tell.
 
TexansSeminole said:
Low. His experience winning alone will not allow it.
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I would say that just about all assistants that end up head coaches had plenty of experience winning or they wouldn't be getting the head coach jobs.

How many assistants do you know of that were hired as head coaches didn't experience winning to some level?
 
Don't worry about Kubiak. I know it's going to be weird but he's going to get us a lot of wins, something we're not used to. I can't wait :redtowel:
 
Brian Billick didn't become a HC with as much winning experience as Kubiak did. He was the OC of the Vikings team that blew the NFC championship game after going 15-1. His first SB appearance was when he was a HC with Baltimore while Kubes has been to multiple at different levels. I don't think you can necessarily compare the two.

As for Baltimore's inability to improve their offense, I think a big part is trying to find that QB that works. They've had a good running game. They've had good line play. They just didn't get anything from the QB. That might change with McNair in town.

Belichek wasn't given a chance in Cleveland and wasn't given personnel to win with. He's done a fair job in New England.
 
TexanFan881 said:
Don't worry about Kubiak. I know it's going to be weird but he's going to get us a lot of wins, something we're not used to. I can't wait :redtowel:
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I like the way he speaks the truth. He doesn't hold much back at all and I like it. Capers interviews were always "execute" this "execute" that. Whatever he'd say would never happen. I think Kubs will be awesome compared to Capers, and the season hasn't even started yet.:bananasplit:
 
I think that we will get at least four or five years out of him. In my book that's not a bust even if there isn't SB in that period.

I think we are taking the same head coach risk that Cleveland and Cinci have taken in the past few years. They also hired an experienced coordinator from a successful program.
 
I think an assistant getting the head coaching job is a lot like a college player moving up to the Pros. You take a look at what he has done at a lower level, if he looks like a fit you go for it.

At a new level, with all the added pressure, some flourish, some fold.

Ask the question again in 2 years.
 
TexanBacker93 said:
Brian Billick didn't become a HC with as much winning experience as Kubiak did. He was the OC of the Vikings team that blew the NFC championship game after going 15-1.
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Still, I would consider 15-1 winning, no matter what happened in the playoffs. Also, I seem to remember that Vikings defense couldn't stop the Giants.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
I was reading the Who Has More to Prove thread and read the following:



Two words: Brian Billick.

We're all so happy (at least, I am) about Kubiak, an offensive guru, coming in here and how he's going to breathe life into an offense that looked like a bunch of zombies last year. But Brian Billick was brought into Baltimore for the same basic reason. He's supposed to be an offensive genius, a bigger offensive genius than Kubiak, and he hasn't been able to do squat for that offense in all these years. Granted, he won an SB but he's had years to work with different QB's and make his high powered system work... and... nada.

I also remember how Belichik was brought into Cleveland and sucked wind. Hugh Campbell was supposed to be an offensive genius and the old Oiler fans will remember how that turned out; at least we got Moon out of that deal.

What do y'all think the odds are that Kubiak ends up being a "bust"?
Click to expand...


I don't Kubiak is going to turn us into a Top 10 offense overnight. I do think that he is going to make better use of the available talent.

Billick is running the same scheme in Baltimore, he just has a differently talented team. If you have a Top 5 defense, a weak-armed QB, and big bruiser RB, it is crazy to try for 300 yds passing every game. He adapted play calling to fit his players.

Cowher is another example of adaptability. The Steeler offense has changed style probably three times in the last 12 years.
 
Hookem Horns said:
Still, I would consider 15-1 winning, no matter what happened in the playoffs. Also, I seem to remember that Vikings defense couldn't stop the Giants.
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Atlanta beat the vikings in '98 (Minnesota's 15-1 season)

NY beat them in '00. Billick was gone by then
 
TwinSisters said:
Odds are that he fails. But that doesn't really mean much I suppose.We have 10 new head coaches this season. Several of them former assistants.

By the numbers, more fail then succed just purely because there are more teams that fail to make the playoffs then make it.

So in the end the odds are against every single assistant coach coming into a head coach job ( not just Kubiak ).
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I have a little saying, it takes a lot of losers to make one winner. However, the person that didn't try is the real loser because you very rarely win on the first try.
 
Billick was without his starting RB for most of the season before and when he returned there was nothing in the tank. Also can you name any of the potential game breaking receivers. Mason doesn't really break the game.
 
MorKnolle said:
Being a head coach isn't for everyone. Dom Capers (yes I hate bringing him up but oh well) was a pretty good D-Coordinator but when he was put in charge of a whole team he sucked it up twice.
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Yea... I would consider him making it to the NFC Championship game with the Panthers "sucking it up"....

Capers caught wind of the business-like nature of the modern NFL and found himself out the door. The same thing happened to him in Carolina after only a 4-12 season. It happens.

Kubiak appreciates the offense more than our last regime, and he is trying to set up a real system to run by. Our last coaching staff was not able to accomplish that. Carr will be given more options (both in depth and on playcalling) this year, and it will help turn us around.

:texflag:
 
Kubes needs TIME! Time to grow into his new position as HC. Time for him to put his system in place. And, time for his players to grow into his system. I just hope we give him enough time. I'd hate to fire him after 1 or 2 years because the record isn't what everyone thought it should be.

Kubes is probably one of the most ready coordinators to take over a HC position in the NFL. He had some great teachers/mentors to learn a very good system from, and if he is given the time to implement this system, I think he will be very successful in the NFL. JMHO!
 
Insideop said:
Kubes needs TIME! Time to grow into his new position as HC. Time for him to put his system in place. And, time for his players to grow into his system. I just hope we give him enough time. I'd hate to fire him after 1 or 2 years because the record isn't what everyone thought it should be.

Kubes is probably one of the most ready coordinators to take over a HC position in the NFL. He had some great teachers/mentors to learn a very good system from, and if he is given the time to implement this system, I think he will be very successful in the NFL. JMHO!
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No way will they fire him after two seasons. I think McNair knows he has way more upside than Capers ever did. They will give him at least 4 seasons to reach the playoffs before there are grumblings.
 
Bartkoman said:
No way will they fire him after two seasons. I think McNair knows he has way more upside than Capers ever did. They will give him at least 4 seasons to reach the playoffs before there are grumblings.
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Hope you're right!:thumbup
 
South Texan said:
I think an assistant getting the head coaching job is a lot like a college player moving up to the Pros. You take a look at what he has done at a lower level, if he looks like a fit you go for it.
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Ya and Kubiak would be a first rounder, for sure.
 
Bartkoman said:
No way will they fire him after two seasons. I think McNair knows he has way more upside than Capers ever did. They will give him at least 4 seasons to reach the playoffs before there are grumblings.
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I agree with that and if that is the case, Carr is way gone by then (unless the team had major injuries to major players)


look at Jeff Fisher..his background before he became permanent HC.

I can't say Kubiak is the next HOF coach, but I think he does have the personality that if a player isn't doing what is right, player is gone no matter what status.. and I would think he'd hold his coaches to the same standard.


with his experience (granted their are coaches history/records that dispute what i feel) but I think he is smart enough to take care of business so to speak
 
<I agree with that and if that is the case, Carr is way gone by then (unless the team had major injuries to major players)>

Why would Carr be way gone by then? SIlly statement. Explain yourself.
 
I like Carr.. If we haven't made the playoffs within 4 years .. I believe we will be looking at a new direction at QB..I am not saying we will be going to the playoffs this season, but with AJ and Moulds along with the TE's that we have and the (on paper) OL that we have.. This is easily the most talent (along with offensive coach) that we have ever had as a team. I am not saying the offense is going to be ranked #1 but it should be fairly good (from what i am seeing on paper.

now defensively.. we still need help.. yet DL .. payne is the elder and he probably will retire by then (4 years).. we still need help at LB and CB ..

My feelings are that we went 7-9 with alot less talent around us in 2004.. and if in at least 2 years we haven't gone to the playoffs..it will be a shame that we haven't done it.

now if (God forbid) AJ went down or Mario or Drob.. that is a serious blow to this franchise.. I could understand that.
 
not that I agree with this. I like Carr yet if in 4 years we aren't in the playoffs (meaning more than likely 1-3 years we didn't go either)..we should have had enough high draft picks to get over the hump and into the playoffs if not... Smith is gone (in 4 years)... we aren't and expansion team anymore
 
Wolf said:
I like Carr.. If we haven't made the playoffs within 4 years .. I believe we will be looking at a new direction at QB..
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I agree, if the team plays well and Carr struggles, we will be looking for a new QB. But I dont think that is going to happen.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
I was reading the Who Has More to Prove thread and read the following:



Two words: Brian Billick.

We're all so happy (at least, I am) about Kubiak, an offensive guru, coming in here and how he's going to breathe life into an offense that looked like a bunch of zombies last year. But Brian Billick was brought into Baltimore for the same basic reason. He's supposed to be an offensive genius, a bigger offensive genius than Kubiak, and he hasn't been able to do squat for that offense in all these years. Granted, he won an SB but he's had years to work with different QB's and make his high powered system work... and... nada.

I also remember how Belichik was brought into Cleveland and sucked wind. Hugh Campbell was supposed to be an offensive genius and the old Oiler fans will remember how that turned out; at least we got Moon out of that deal.

What do y'all think the odds are that Kubiak ends up being a "bust"?
Click to expand...

Pretty high.
 
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