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A Question for Trading Down Advocates.

Texans_Chick

Texans_Chick

Utopian Dreamer
For those people who are hoping for the Texans to trade down, I would like your opinion on a particular post that came from an old thread about the Texans trading down option, and wasn't really discussed much:

Last week thread: Trade down IS only option.

AJ said:

There's also a lot of talk in this thread about trading down and picking up several more draft picks. The Texans already have eight picks and there's this thing called the rookie pool that you can't exceed for purposes of the salary cap, plus the fact that you can only prorate new contracts 4 years now since there's no CBA extension. This means that rookie contracts have to be loaded up more and more in their second year because their first year base salaries are set and you can't prorate bonus out five or six years any more. Meaning, if you load up on low first rounders and second or even third rounders you can get yourself in a pickle pretty quickly salary cap wise by taking on too many of these higher round rookie contracts.
Click to expand...

Please refrain from gratitous displays of dumping on VY or Bush as it doesn't promote helpful discussion (and I have to say it is a bit unseemly when a collection of sittin down, computer staring donut eaters spend their time cracking on elite athletes ;) ). In other words, let's work from the assumption that you don't want to pick VY or Bush for whatever reasons, what is your commentary about AJ's post? That you just like the other players better and want actual players v. just more picks? I want to see your thinking.

Apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere in depth but I didn't see much comment about this either here or in the media.

TIA.
 
I am sure I know the answer but my first question would be does the lack of the CBA extension effect Free Agent acquisitions as well? If it is yes or no that would help shape the discussion due to the convergence of these acquisiton levers.
 
I have another thought ... however unlikely but here it is ....

Texans trade with NYJ and get a package of picks including #4, .....

Draft day rolls around .....

NYJ picks Reggie Bush
NO picks Matt Leinhart
Tenn picks D'Brickashaw Ferguson

what then?

trade even farther down?
pick Young?
pick someone else?
 
well one answer is that there is a "fairly" good chance that the league might have this issue fixed before the draft.

If they dont though.. alot of trade down scenarios involve one or two extra picks this year, and one or two extra picks next year.. which would not be a crippling amount of rookies, i would think.

Other scenarios involve us trading down, then trading back up... so we end up with around the same amount of players, but have alot of 1st round graded players. (such as the scenario where we trade down to #4 and get a 2nd and 3rd rounder.. then use our 3 3rds to trade back up into the top of the second.. giving us 3 picks where we can grab the players that slide out of the first)


Its hard to say what would and wouldnt work without having some real numbers laid out in front of you.
 
chuckm said:
I have another thought ... however unlikely but here it is ....

Texans trade with NYJ and get a package of picks including #4, .....

Draft day rolls around .....

NYJ picks Reggie Bush
NO picks Matt Leinhart
Tenn picks D'Brickashaw Ferguson

what then?

trade even farther down?
pick Young?
pick someone else?
Click to expand...

Mario Williams :)
 
The other hiccup in this exercise is DC and who will be released in March. I do not want to poo poo on the thread as I think it is the kind that we need around here, but there are many dominos to fall before I throw out my uneducated guess. ;)
 
chuckm said:
I have another thought ... however unlikely but here it is ....

Texans trade with NYJ and get a package of picks including #4, .....

Draft day rolls around .....

NYJ picks Reggie Bush
NO picks Matt Leinhart
Tenn picks D'Brickashaw Ferguson

what then?

trade even farther down?
pick Young?
pick someone else?
Click to expand...

Pick Mario Williams or AJ Hawk.

Oh, and for the post topic. If the Texans were to trade down they would pick up one possibly 2 picks this year. Each team is supposed to have 7 picks we have 8 so at most we would have 10 picks only 3 over what we would regularly have. Some of these picks may be used to trade up again, especially if we end up with another 3rd rounder. The other pick we would acuire would be for next years first round and we would have to worry about that in 2007.

Worst case scenario, we are not able to sign our 6th, 7th and maybe 5th rounder which we may not have signed anyway.

Oh and by drafting Bush his salary would put us high into cap space in his second year when e already signed an extension with DD.
 
There are a few ways to attempt to correct this. The problem is, though, if you continue to stockpile picks and finish in the bottom 10 in the league, you are going to run into cap problems.

In my example on page 4 of that same thread in which AJ posted, I had us trading the Jets for their 1st this year, 1st next year, and John Abraham. In this example, we would actually use less of the rookie cap than was alocated because we went from having the 1st overall pick to the 4th without acquiring a 2006 pick. Adding a veteran in the mix helps with the rookie cap, but it does still potentially cause other cap concerns.

Lets say that instead, we got the Jets 1st-3rd round selections this year plus a 2nd next year. This would creating some issues. The easiest solution would be to trade a pick for a future pick, if you can find a taker. Perhaps trade one of our 3rd's for a 2007 2nd. You could trade for veterans. You could also package multiple picks to trade back up (Babin style). These are ways to try to counteract it. The rookie cap issues will be easier to handle when we start to finish in the top half of the league (and are drafting later).
 
IF we were to trade down I’d like an extra a second or third this year(one or the other no more), and everything else I’d ask for in trades would be picks for next year. I’ve been a hardcore draftnik for about the last 5 years and in that time one team has worked the draft better then anyone, The Patriots. While their picks have not all been great, some have stunk, they have always had the flexibility, due to extra picks, to make the moves to get the players they wanted.

Also this year’s draft is deep in spots that are needs for use, mainly Offensive Line and Tight End; and if we need to make moves to get the players we want/need I’m pretty sure Cass can get everybody signed (say what you like about Charlie he has been pretty savvy signing rookies). Besides trading out of the #1 spot, I wouldn’t mind trading the first pick in the 4th, which historically has had some value, for another 3rd next year; once again giving us the flexibility to draft the players we really wanted next year or to trade picks for players of even more picks in 2008.

I think looking as each draft as in independent and whole contained entity is what has lead some teams to the poor drafts they have had; where as teams who willing to look not only at this draft and how it will effect the team but also who you can improve next years draft have had better success. No NFL team can be rebuilt in a single draft (except the post-Walker trade Cowboys), but by working the draft with an eye to the next draft tends to lead to a more stable talent base. Granted this can all back fire as any team needs to have a solid draft each year to help re-supply the depth chart, but the system can be worked.

As for the CBA, I'd be shocked if this lead to an NHL/MLB type secnario. The NFL has shown to much intellegnce in dealing with their CBA.
 
Something interesting that I have noticed is how people seem to think, just because you have X amount of draft picks, your X=Y where Y is number of players taken.

Sometimes having lots of draft picks is a powerful tool for bundling picks to move up or to trade for more picks in subsequent years.


Hypotheical situation:

Texans trade down and end up with 2 #1 picks next year. For arguments sake, lets pretend that Kubiak comes in and David Carr blows up under his watch OR <insert your new QB savior's name here> is drafted this year, Carr is traded for anyone else other than Ricky Williams.

Next year Adrian Peterson comes out after winning the heisman and is projected to go #1.

The texans, with 2 #1 picks in the first round and possibly an extra 2nd round pick from the prior years deal now bundle their picks to move up and pick #1 over all again.....

Just cause you have 10 picks doesn't mean you have to take 10 players, is all I'm saying; BUT, picks are like money, baby....you can't have enough.
 
A couple of general things:

Overall, a good portion draftniks love the trade down. If you were to review the draft posts over history fans always want to trade down for more picks. Something some people's nature more = better.

Drafts are the means to the ends of getting players. If you are able to move around (both up and down) to get quality players w/o overpaying then fine, but staying at your position and doing a better at evaluating talent is underrated by a large portion of the draftniks.

The concern of the cap should not be so much for the rookie cap, but for the long term cap. A team's rookie cap is based on the position and number of picks that they have. I don't know the formula and quite frankly don't really care for the details. The way the NFL cap and draft are set up if you have too many high draft choices over time you will eventually have cap issues. 3 top 5 picks in 5 years is heading towards those issues. I am more worried about that long-term than too many picks piling up this year from a trade down.
 
Texans_Chick said:
(and I have to say it is a bit unseemly when a collection of sittin down, computer staring donut eaters spend their time cracking on elite athletes ;) ).
Click to expand...
Hey!!!!! I resemble that remark

Texans_Chick said:
That you just like the other players better and want actual players v. just more picks? I want to see your thinking.
Apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere in depth but I didn't see much comment about this either here or in the media.
TIA.
Click to expand...


We'll, only the first rounders are quaranteed contracts. The rest of them can and might not make it...
 
1st. we can absorb the #1 pick, if it means releasing Carr (Vince Young) that relieves more cap space.

2nd. The Texans have traded up and traded out (Babin & PBuc) the last two drafts resulting in a defiect of rookie prospects X 6 which means we should have more cap flexiabilty now.

3rd. What are we waiting for when it comes to helping build this team with young talent? Is Casserly afraid of his own picking abilites or has it been just fiscal cap management that has over ruled addressing obvious needs?

For me the time to act is now, the Texans fans should not suffer such a brutel season because of cap management in year 4 or failing to draft/trade/ or utilize talent because of coaching/schemes.

Trading down could work, but as chuckm states what if D'Brick is gone? If this happens I'd go defense with AJ Hawk, change to a 4-3 defense & have two seconds + three thirds + John Abraham. we could address tackle OT/DE in the 2nd, another Guard/Center with a CB/Safety in the 3rd. This would be a make-up call for two years of ignoring these positions for the last two years. :)
 
beerlover said:
2nd. The Texans have traded up and traded out (Babin & PBuc) the last two drafts resulting in a defiect of rookie prospects X 6 which means we should have more cap flexiabilty now.
Click to expand...

Very good point. As the expiration of the CBA has been drawing closer, the length of contracts has been shortening as well. Due to the Babin and P-Buc picks/trades, the Texans have less folks who will be hitting contract renewal than they otherwise might giving some ease to the scenario aj has correctly pointed out.
 
I understand the proration issue with the CBA. Can someone provide information or speak to more detail on the rookie pool?
 
Kaiser Toro said:
I understand the proration issue with the CBA. Can someone provide information or speak to more detail on the rookie pool?
Click to expand...

Not fully, but as a very lame stab--the NFL assigns a pool amount to every pick and then adds up the pool amounts for the picks a team had and allocates a rookie pool to each team. It is the maximum cap hit for all the rookies combined in their rookie year--teams do not have to stick to individual pool amounts, just to the overall rookie total. It does come from the general cap so room does need to be reserved for it. I have not heard of any issue with it for any team other than not having room under their general cap amount to fit their rookie pool amount in--i.e. it makes it difficult for them to agree to contracts with their rookies because they can't fit them all under the cap. That shouldn't be a problem for the Texans this year.
 
infantrycak said:
Very good point. As the expiration of the CBA has been drawing closer, the length of contracts has been shortening as well. Due to the Babin and P-Buc picks/trades, the Texans have less folks who will be hitting contract renewal than they otherwise might giving some ease to the scenario aj has correctly pointed out.
Click to expand...

In relation to what they could have yes, but in realtion to what other teams have no. Both years The Texans used two first day picks totally four players and young veteran contract versus 6 (obviously dependant on trades) for other teams. IMO, not more an issue for us than any other team.
 
also if we used the no.1 pick-there wouldnt be much difference in the amount we have to spend in the 2nd year as 2 or 3 lower picks wouldnt cost more than the huge contract we'd have to give a reggie bush/vince young @ no.1 overall so i dont see it as a problem
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
In relation to what they could have yes, but in realtion to what other teams have no. Both years The Texans used two first day picks totally four players and young veteran contract versus 6 (obviously dependant on trades) for other teams. IMO, not more an issue for us than any other team.
Click to expand...

As I understood aj's point, it was trading down could result in having to sign new contracts with more players at the same time in just a few years which could cause problems. In that vein, the Texans may have a few less players in the pipeline for contract renewal because of the Babin and P-Buc trades. Seems to address aj's concern to a degree.
 
chuckm said:
I have another thought ... however unlikely but here it is ....

Texans trade with NYJ and get a package of picks including #4, .....

Draft day rolls around .....

NYJ picks Reggie Bush
NO picks Matt Leinhart
Tenn picks D'Brickashaw Ferguson

what then?

trade even farther down?
pick Young?
pick someone else?
Click to expand...

First, I have slowly gone to a trade down position. I think Tenn would pick QB not OT. In my scenario a trade with NY would get 4th pick a second(I would accept a third, shh!)and DL John Abraham. Texans would select Ferguson and either a linebacker and TE. If no 2nd offered, I would use our two 3rd rounds to complete above. The OL would be boosted with Pitts at guard next to Ferguson and the TE would offer outlet pass for Carr or more blocking as I do not see Joppru making the team in 06. We would then have the Jets 3rd round from the trade and our own 4th round. I think Kubiak can develope Carr and our backs will only look better in his offense. I would go strong @ Reggie Wayne W/R in free agency & yes, I realize we will over pay. So? We have a history of that and I think he brings value compared to Walker, Greenwood, Todd Wade, etc. 2nd issue, as I understand if there is no collective bargaining agreement, there is no salary cap.
 
TheOgre said:
There are a few ways to attempt to correct this. The problem is, though, if you continue to stockpile picks and finish in the bottom 10 in the league, you are going to run into cap problems.

In my example on page 4 of that same thread in which AJ posted, I had us trading the Jets for their 1st this year, 1st next year, and John Abraham. In this example, we would actually use less of the rookie cap than was alocated because we went from having the 1st overall pick to the 4th without acquiring a 2006 pick. Adding a veteran in the mix helps with the rookie cap, but it does still potentially cause other cap concerns.

Lets say that instead, we got the Jets 1st-3rd round selections this year plus a 2nd next year. This would creating some issues. The easiest solution would be to trade a pick for a future pick, if you can find a taker. Perhaps trade one of our 3rd's for a 2007 2nd. You could trade for veterans. You could also package multiple picks to trade back up (Babin style). These are ways to try to counteract it. The rookie cap issues will be easier to handle when we start to finish in the top half of the league (and are drafting later).
Click to expand...
I understand your thinking, but I thought this draft was supposed to be much better first round through third. So, wouldn't a 3rd round pick say from the Jets this year help us more than a 2nd round next year? Personally, I've always thought a veteran F/A offers a more clearer picture of what to expect that a draft pick with no downs in NFL. There are exceptions, I know. If you think we can get 4th, Abraham and 2007 1st, all I can do is hope you are correct. For me that would be a sweet deal as I think both Jets and Houston will be in top 10- 12 picks in 07.:yahoo:
 
Meloy said:
I understand your thinking, but I thought this draft was supposed to be much better first round through third. So, wouldn't a 3rd round pick say from the Jets this year help us more than a 2nd round next year?
Click to expand...

Actually a 3rd rounder this year is probably equivalent to a 2nd rounder next year, but you get that player now versus waiting a year. The problem is that a few years from now you have all of these players coming up for contract renewal at the same time.
 
Kaiser Toro said:
http://www.nflpa.org/Media/main.asp?subPage=CBA+Complete#art17

There is a hyperlink to get to the below article.

Page 48 of the CBA
ARTICLE XVII
ENTERING PLAYER POOL
Click to expand...


Whoa. Nice link. I've always wanted to look at that stuff and never have. Now I know why people rarely talk details of it. ick. Just skimming it, I found this off-topic gem that made me laugh a little:

Section 2. Personal Appearance: Clubs may make and enforce reasonable rules governing players’ appearance on the field and in public places while representing the Clubs; provided, however, that no player will be disciplined because of hair length or facial hair.
Click to expand...

You know, there is going to be a day some time where Jake Plummer is gonna look at old pictures of himself and wonder what the heck he was thinking.


Thanks everyone for the thoughtful posts on this subject. Found them interesting.

:texflag:
 
There are two chances for owners to work on the CBA. Once soon after the Pro Bowl, and another in May. The one in May is probably where the main work will be done, because none of the owners want an uncapped year in 2007. The talks in February will mainly be conceptual and nothing will be firmly determined. So when the Draft happens at the end of April, there likely will be no CBA in place, however owners and GMs cannot go in thinking there will not be one, as it will likely be in a few weeks after the draft. Since most contracts aren't even written until right before training camp, the new contracts should be able to be prorated over the usual 4-6 year span.
 
I'm a big AJ Hawk fan. Fairly high on Ferguson. Wouldn't mind Bush, cringe at the thought of picking a QB.

Now that you know where I'm coming from, I'll get to the point of the thread.

"Cap Hell" is a scenario brought on by expensive contracts for players your team can't live without.

The Texans are FAR, FAR from Cap Hell, possibly one of the furthest in the league (I've not done a full analysis of each team, so grain of salt on that one). Why do I say this? Well, first they are they estimated at having the second most cap room in the NFL at the moment. Even more significantly, because the majority of Texans' cap money is tied up in people that are borderline or in the downside of their careers. Yes, Steve McKinney is taking up a bunch of cap - but is there anyone here that finds the thought of being forced to cut McKinney keeping them up at night? How about Marcus Coleman? Gary Walker? Maybe Morlon Greenwood sends you running for the Unisom?

Furthermore, remember you're not even talking 2006 cuts (thanks to rookie salary slotting) but cuts in 2007. If anyone here thinks Todd Wade will be our best option at starting tackle in 2007, well, I definately DON'T want any of what you're smoking.

Some of these contracts would be "upside down" in 2006 (many would save us money right now, if we needed it), but most of them are cap-positive for cutting in '07.

Of course, you can always trade back up with your new lower picks. I really like the idea of making our second third-round pick into a mid-to-high second.
 
1.Trading down relieves you of paying for a #1.

2. Later rounds don't get GTD money or major signing bonuses.

3. Getting 07 picks have better chances of new CBA.
 
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