In a draft that many in the NFL consider the most talented in years, we could see a considerable amount of movement in the top-10 picks. Teams could shift around to target the top players in the draft. Or they could trade back to accumulate picks and rely on the depth of the class.
One general manager who hasn't been afraid to move around is Thomas Dimitroff of the Atlanta Falcons. In 2011, Dimitroff sent five picks to Cleveland to move up from No. 27 to No. 6 to select wide receiver Julio Jones. If Dimitroff wants pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney, he may have to trade up to the No. 1 pick. Because the Falcons have the sixth pick in this year's draft, Dimitroff may not have to give up quite as much as he did in 2011, but he'll have to give up quite a bit of compensation and risk future depth to move up.
Of course, any type of move up would require the Texans being interested in moving down. Adding a second-round pick in a loaded draft will be tempting for Houston. Getting even more in return, which they should expect, would be hard to pass up.
That is the cost and risk of trading in the NFL Draft. For teams moving up, they're sacrificing future depth. For teams dropping down, they'll risk missing out on a good player. Here's what the first two rounds of the 2014 NFL Draft could look like if the top pick is traded. As always, if you have your own mock, or even some trade theories of your own, feel free to share them in the comments.
FIRST ROUND
TRADE: 1. Atlanta Falcons (from Houston): Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
Atlanta gives up this year's first- and second-round choices and a 2015 first-round pick to Houston in exchange for the No. 1 pick.
If the Falcons want Jadeveon Clowney, they may have to go up to the No. 1 pick to get him. It's obviously cost prohibitive to jump that high in the draft. But what happens if Clowney, Khalil Mack and even Greg Robinson are picked before Atlanta's selection? Thomas Dimitroff has added several big-name veteran front office men this offseason. Trading away picks means he'll have to rely on their expertise to hit on picks later in the draft.
2. St. Louis Rams: Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
If Clowney goes first overall in the draft, it leaves the Rams to choose between Robinson and wide receiver Sammy Watkins. On a team with only an average (at best) quarterback situation, Robinson could have the bigger impact. Zac Stacy is an emerging talent as a running back, and Robinson is the type of blocker who could turn him into a Pro Bowler.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
Despite bringing back Jason Babin and signing Chris Clemons, the Jaguars could look to add more pass-rushing help with a player like Mack. He's as versatile as any defensive player in the draft this year and would give head coach Gus Bradley countless options.
4. Cleveland Browns: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
What Cleveland truly thinks of the top quarterbacks in the draft this year will determine much of how the first round unravels. Let's assume for now they don't like any of them at No. 4. With Robinson gone, that leaves Watkins for the Browns. Although they brought in Andrew Hawkins in free agency, he's not the outside receiver the Browns need to pair with Josh Gordon.
5. Oakland Raiders: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
The Raiders are bringing Manziel in for a visit this week. Chances are if you're a top-five team, you don't bring in a first-round player that you don't like. But why Manziel over the other quarterbacks? Manziel would give the Raiders' offense an unique identity the others cannot. While Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater are both good players, they can't transform a team's offensive like Manziel. Besides, there's just something fun about Manziel and his swagger being in Oakland.
TRADE: 6. Houston Texans (from Atlanta): Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida
While there is some risk in trading down this far from No. 1, a good quarterback should be available for the Texans with this choice. Teddy Bridgewater for us anyway grades out as a better player than Bortles. Other than fan conjecture, though, there has been almost no discussion of the Texans and Bridgewater. Question it however you choose, but there has been more of a connection between Bortles and Houston. For that, for now, he is the choice...
