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2011 draft dynamics
- Thread starter powda
- Start date
No GM and coach will cut their 1st round draft choice after a year. Certainly not Smithiak. But Jackson was the worst CB on the NFL's worst pass defense. You do the math. And I don't know how you are "breaking down" Jackson's game and concluding that he is better than McCourty. But whatever you're doing ain't working. Jackson may be fixable. I hope so. But in 2010, he sucked hard. There's plenty of evidence out there.
Nobody is suggesting cutting anybody.
But a rookie CB who finds himself struggling can log time on the bench like Kyle Wilson.
A legitimate starting NFL CB should have the confidence of his coaches to be put on an island often.
How many times did you see this from McCourty?
How many times did you see this from Jackson?
Here's some Jackson "highlights" vs Hakeem Nicks and Giants. He was benched during the game and replaced by Brice McCain (probably the 2nd worst CB in the NFL).
How about Kareem getting owned by the "great" Charger WRs Seji Ajirotutu and Patrick Clayton?
Oh, the humanity.
These are the same coaches who were recently fired for placing a rookie CB on an island, right?
What's the point?
My point was that Wilson was put on the bench because he played more like the worst CB in the league, with or without safety help.
Having the confidence of Frank Bush & David Gibbs isn't necessarily a good thing.
I will go through all the Texans games as promised.
And I will also go over the Pats game.
We can compare apple to apple and orange to orange.
The vids here, I will go through them as time allowed.
The Chargers game, I've already discussed.
But let me go ahead and refresh your memory.
9:35 to go in the first.
Bootleg to Arijotutu for a TD.
This one is either Quin's fault or Wilson's.
This coverage is something Wade terms a buster call in his coverage against a 2-receiver set (Cover one) - (and last year I just happen to go through the Falcons D playbook when Wade was there.)
One receiver runs a slant; the other runs a deep route.
The QB will look at the safety; if the lone safety steps up on the short route, he will throw deep and vice versa.
In this buster call for the D, two scenarios can occur:
1. Quin can follow the slant route; Jackson plays the middle (backing up Quin while playing underneath the deep receiver; Wilson remains at deep safety.
I've already said that this was exactly what the Chargers did when the Texans ran a similar 2-receiver patterns.
The safety Weddle stays back on AJ as Schaub threw to JJ for 17 yds on the slant.
The RCB (just like Quin) was covering air - even though he covered less air than Quin; ie. he was closer to the play.
2. Quin replaces Wilson as the deep safety; Jackson does the same thing he does in the above scenario; Wilson steps up to look for a play on the slant route, just as he did.
3. (A variation of 2) Same as 2; except the safety plays it one better.
This is the play I had posted about the safety from Clemson (McDaniel).
He faked like he would stay with the deep receiver and then jumped on the slant route for an INT.
In this play, if there's a term WORST CB in the NFL, it should belong to Quin.
If you don't see Jackson screwing the pooch royally in the videos, then you aren't looking hard enough. I don't know what else to say.
If you don't see Quin or Wilson messing up on that play; it is because you don't have the actual game tape so you can see the play evolves (also the play where Schaub threw to JJ and the Miami/Clemson game).
I wish I know how to make vids.
Here's one situation when McCourty sees a one-on-one situation.
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011011600/2010/POST19/jets@patriots#tab:watch
A CB cannot allow a receiver to beat him that quickly in the redzone and then beat him again running to the outside.
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011011600/2010/POST19/jets@patriots#tab:watch
A CB cannot allow a receiver to beat him that quickly in the redzone and then beat him again running to the outside.
The next play in the Chargers game is around 9:11 to go in the third.
This is a situation where the Texans brought an unsucessful 5-man rush.
The CBs were in one-on-one with deep safety help in the middle (and only in the middle, if you want to be tight.)
The one thing Jackson did right was to make sure the receiver doesn't get a free release to the outside.
Yes, he did miss a shoestring tackle and allowed a first down (a rare missed tackle by Jackson); but the receiver was going toward where the deep safety help is.
Even as Wilson had good position (Clayton almost temporarily stopped), he missed the tackle; then he missed the tackle again and was saved by Jackson who recovered and made the stop (he also showed good sense by trying to poke the ball out at the same time).
That one should have been at most a 15-yd gain.
The defender who got owned was Wilson, by two consecutive straight arms from Clayton.
I guess the entire football world has it wrong then. McCourty was on the AP 2nd team All Pro team, but Kareem Jackson is better. McCourty is 2nd in the league in interceptions, but Kareem Jackson is better. I'll just have to remain with those who don't get it, because I still think McCourty is better than Jackson.
You know better than bring up stats with a guy who believes in what actually happens on the field.
The hyped-up part of the football world (which is a really really big part) may think that a guy who gets an INT because the QB throws the ball right to him (due to pressure, or whatever) is a great player. More power to them!
Yes, we would rather have players who are burned repeatedly for long TD passes than players who intercept passes.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
The guy you see chasing after the WR isn't always the one who was burned. A lot of times, the guy who blew the coverage is the safety and may not even be in the picture. The way a CB covers a WR depends on the help he expects to get from the players around him. And if he's expecting deep help, he'll play tighter trying to take away the underneath stuff because he thinks that if the WR gets past him, the safety will be in position to pick him up.
I'm not saying that KJ played like an all-pro or anything. He made mistakes, no doubt. But there are lots of plays where he looks like a dweeb when he's the guy doing what he was supposed to do but got screwed because the safeties didn't give him the support he expected.
That's why I expect KJ to be fine as long as he's put into a defense where the safeties are doing their jobs and as long as he's got some vets to look up to and learn from.
And better coaching isn't going to hurt.
I couldn't agree with you more.
The funny thing is that when I did the break down on Jackson's college game tapes after we drafted him, I had forewarned that people shouldn't set their expectations too high. He will play like a rookie, but as long as the other ten guys do their job, Jackson will be OK. Had they only gave him a few snaps here and there in his first game, it would have been fine with me; had they started him out as a nickel, it would have OK with me as well.
Unfortunately, my lack of confidence in the coverage skills of the safeties has been proven correct (I'm sure quite a few people were concerned about this just the same).
Not only that, when Barwin went down, I already had a feeling that the Texans pressure would suffer and put further strain on the secondary.
The secondary was already the weakness many of us had anticipated coming into the season.
For the past few years, if anyone notices, during the draft, I've had always concentrated my effort in this area: Safety and CB.
It seems like there were quite a few folks rating Kyle Wilson way over Jackson; I wonder where you, rmartin, BL, badboy, etc. had Wilson at.
If you had Jackson between 40-50, you definitely had to have Wilson in the 3rd-4th round as to avoid not to reach on the guy!
My Cb rankings last yr were
Haden
Ghee
McCourty
Wilson
Jackson
McCourty
I was wrong on Ghee. I considered him to be the best man to man cover CB in the draft.
I also was wrong when I thought the 2010 was deep at CB. It was but there were a bunch of # 2-3's. There weren't any high end CB's
The 2011 CB class is about the same. There are only 2 high end CB's and 2 CB/FS types that would be worthy of 1st rd consideration. Smith would also be on the 1st rd list except for character concerns and a little stiffness in the hips.
Pure Cb's
1.Peterson (I know you disagree)
2. Davon House (best at flipping his hips and running in the draft. IMHO)
3.Jimmy Smith
4.Harris
CB/FS types
1.Amakamura
2.A.Williams.
I would like to see your ratings this yr. Obviously you have alot more access to tape than I do.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
He was so good, you liked him twice?
ADD be damned, LOL
I meant to put Patrick Robinson last on the list.
76 Tex, Jackson isn't as bad as some on this board think he is and probably isn't as good as you think he is.
He has potential if he keeps improving to be a solid # 2 CB at his high end. IMHO
He has potential if he keeps improving to be a solid # 2 CB at his high end. IMHO
It's a really mixed bag this year, so it's hard to decipher.
Peterson, frankly, I didn't pay attention to his age.
A year in college for a CB is a long time to learn about offensive/defensive schemes and receiver route running.
Like I said, even Woodson said that he should have paid more attention to film study.
Peterson certainly has all the measurables.
But, it is difficult to project whether a player can improve the mental part of the game.
My take is if a team decide to built in the potential, then they can take him high, but then they need to prepare to coach up the guy.
The risk/reward ratio for drafting a player at one of the top spots is for that team to measure.
Personally, (1) I'm more conservative, and (2) I don't have the resource to know whether professional people can "fix" him up or not, I would rather trade down to pick another player.
2. House, I had only watched one half of a game (and they didn't bother to challenge him) so I have no opinion right now. (But the fact that he wasn't challenged should say something.)
3. Smith has the talent and the measurables, I put him in the early to mid 20s. (That is disregarding off-the-field issues.) Where he ends up I've no idea.
4. Harris is not too different from Kareem Jackson; I can call him Jackson's younger brother. That's why I put him in the second round.
5. Amakumara's main problems had been identified: high on his backpedal and hand technique that will be called as PI in the pro.
Can they fix that? If they think it's doable, teams can certainly draft him in the top 15. Personally, similar to Peterson's situation, since I'm not in the know so if I have to rate such a prospect, I would have to drop him into the second round.
6. I haven't zoned in on Williams, so I just don't have an opinion.
powda
The bridge between stupid and useless is short.
Harris has better long speed, at least on tape. I dunno what the 40 yard time comparison is. Jackson seemed more consitent and way more physical comming out.
Amakumara seems to me a closer comparison to Jackson. Both big physical corners with decent but not great speed. I think both will have to rely on physicality and solid technique because neither have elite speed.
I keep eyeing players like Williams and Dowling as Free safetys but that seems less likely due to Quin's move. We should maybe be looking for a strong safety ,but not an in the box type SS. Otherwise, what was the point of severing ties with Pollard?
bah007
Hall of Fame
I actually like the idea of taking Kerrigan in the first. I would like to trade back from #11 but even if we can't I would take him there. A lot of people think he could go #16 to Jacksonville, so it's not like he would be a reach at #11.
In the first round, I want an impact player at a position of need. Kerrigan brings that.
Robert Quinn is my first choice. I don't think he will be there. And I don't think Aldon Smith projects well to a 34.
So I like, in order:
Quinn
Kerrigan
Jordan, DE
Watt, DE
Would also love Peterson or Dareus but that won't happen. I'll pass on Amukamara.
powda
The bridge between stupid and useless is short.
I like smith but i think he'll take the longest to mature into the position. Lots of people seem turned off by Amukamara because of 1 bad game against ok state. Talent is talent even if he had a bad day - he is an instant starter on the Texans roster with the potential to become a very good #1. #11 is early for Kerrigan but he may be one of the safest picks in the draft.
a lineup of:
solb Kerrigan
ilb Cushing
ilb Ryans
wolb Barwin
looks fierce in run support and as a pass rushing group ,but probably weak in coverage.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
An interesting factoid I came across.
Fortenbaugh: Since Gary Kubiak took over as head coach in 2006, the Texans have drafted exactly 19 offensive players and 19 defensive players.
Kuharsky: Its nice to populate the roster in a balanced fashion. But if Houston does as it should and looks to fill a load of defensive holes in this draft, these numbers will tip to the defensive side.
Fortenbaugh: Since Gary Kubiak took over as head coach in 2006, the Texans have drafted exactly 19 offensive players and 19 defensive players.
Kuharsky: Its nice to populate the roster in a balanced fashion. But if Houston does as it should and looks to fill a load of defensive holes in this draft, these numbers will tip to the defensive side.
I'm not sure why you think Prince doesn't have great speed, he ran a 4.38 forty. Decent speed for a CB is 4.5, 4.3s is fast. Prince is a freak show level athlete. If they can get him to quit using his hands so much he'd be a good pick up, if not he'll be a walking PI penalty
powda
The bridge between stupid and useless is short.
I know his forty time was better then expected. BUT he does not play to that speed and that is generally accepted throughout his scouting reports. He just dosent have "elite" long speed. However, he has a good short area burst. I have 1 nebraska game on dvd from this year and watching him shows that as well. The stat that concerns me more with him is his lack of production on the ball - be it interceptions or fumbles.