Keep Texans Talk Google Ad Free!
Venmo Tip Jar | Paypal Tip Jar
Thanks for your support! 🍺😎👍
CJ Stroud year 2
- Thread starter Texansballer74
- Start date
Didn't realize he was sacked 5 times. I knew it was a lot, just wasn't counting.
Number19
Hall of Fame
Number19
Hall of Fame
But you also mentioned Mills' poor game against the Bills. Yes, he and the Texans had a poor game against a playoff team which took the Chiefs and Mahomes into OT before losing 42-36.
This is a fair assessmentLook bottom line is there was nothing the kid did that was overtly bad...Had he come out and was forcing the ball into double coverage left and right, looking like a deer in headlights or wildly inaccurate, i'd be like Ok, we might've goofed here. But none of that happened. He not only took care of the ball, he was pretty damn accurate with it; a few completions he made were surgical. 1 of the things pointed out that isn't getting enough run here by critics is where he was throwing..alot over the middle of the field. Archuleta made a point in saying that most rookie qbs don't like to throw in that area b/c its too congested. Not this kid...he looked comfy throwing in there. He was accurate. He made off script plays when he had to. He took care of the ball for the most part which his counterparts.....& some vets (looking at you Josh Allen) can't say. The ONLY reason he has a TO credited to him is b/c the coaching staff put in an o-linemen at RT that wasn't supposed to be in there at that position....But even in that situation, you don't really blame him..he had his eyes downfield like a qb is supposed to.
Takeways for me on him so far are:
He has to learn to throw the ball away when there's nothing there.
He has to get better at managing the game
Learning to live to fight another day is the biggie right now. He took some horrible sacks in the Baltimore game that could've been avoided if he just threw the ball away. He also made a few ill-advised throws into bad coverage b/c he refused to give up on a play on a few of his rollouts.
The managing the game part...some of that is on him, but i also partially blame Slowik and the coaching staff on this too b/c in some of those sitations, you gotta help the kid out by getting the play in on time. Wasted like 2 TO's coming out the half b/c there appeared to be some confusion about personnel and/or what they were doing.
In a driving rainstorm.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
That's why i said "FIRST GAME ACTION" in my post. Furthermore he played most of that game. Regardless of whether it was a start or not tho, There is no realm in which getting the Panthers defense at home as your 1st start can be compared to the getting the Ravens defense on the road for your 1st start.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
not "driving" rainstorm, but yes there was a steady rain.
This isn't the worst ol in the NFL.
They only sell to a limited number of teams in each division. I believe the Colts and Titans in the AFC South.
No but he obviously processes well. Injury is the most likely thing to bring Purdy down.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Again i don't know if you can say that b/c he hasn't even gotten a full 16 under him yet & he's yet to face real regular season adversity. We as fans tend to think that improvement and greatness is linear. "Well went to the NFCCG last year, logically next year we'll be better and get to the SB right?" No not right. A whole helluva lot of things have to happen for a team/player to take the next step & its not guaranteed. This is what Bills fan & Bengal fan are finding out right now with Josh Allen & Joe Burrow.
So................The stark truth about Purdy right now is he plays in 1 of the most qb friendly systems there is, has 1 of the best playcallers in the NFL calling plays for him & 1 of the best defenses in the league backing him up if he screws the pooch. Life is good for him as a qb. That's all we can deduce right now. But how does that life/game look if say Trent Williams/Deebo Samuel goes down in midseason? What if that defense gets torn apart by FA and now he & this offense are put in position to have to score 30 pts a game to have a chance? Does his superior S2 score "predict" him to elevate his game even more & put the team on his shoulders? We don't know that...yet.
All of these throws he had ample time to make the throw. One was an earlier miss to Collins who was wide open for 20 yards. CJ had a defender bearing down on him but time to set his feet and just missed. That drive ended the next play and we had to punt. Last drive of the first half he was on the move had Collins wide open on the sideline for 12 yards or so that drive ended with a field goal after not getting another first down. Those are the big 2 off the top of my head although there was another to Tank that could have been a big play, much tougher throw there.
Those are two important relatively low level of difficult plays and hitting those can change the course of a game, if CJ is gonna be a franchise QB he's gonna need to start hitting those. Just because it's his first game doesn't mean he should be shielded from criticism it just means that it's too early to draw conclusions from those criticisms.
Texansballer74
The Marine
Whose shielding him from criticism? It happens and he’s a darn rookie playing behind an atrocity of a line. Nerves plays a big part of it. The speed of the game most definitely plays a freaking part of it as well. I see if it’s week 5 and he’s missing like that. But dang after his first start? I mean I do understand your reasoning. But come on man let the kid get settled as well get accustomed to the high speed of the game.
What do you mean who is shielding him from criticism? You are at this very moment shielding him from criticism! I have high hopes that we will see improvement over the coming weeks but in the meantime what's the issue with saying here's some areas that I saw where he needs to do better?
Texansballer74
The Marine
No I’m not, go look at the game thread. I’m just not harping on it like you are doing. Why because I understand the condition and I understand it’s going to take some time. It’s going to take that entire unit to hopefully start clicking on all cylinders and moving in the right direction. You do know that right? Miscommunications throughout that entire line. Miscommunication between CJ and Woods. Coaching has to get better, play calling as well. You don’t have your rookie quarterback throwing that many times in his first game. Especially with that offensive line being put together pretty much on the fly because of injuries.
Last edited:
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
I agree but I actually love it that he got so many tosses. He didn’t get many in the preseason. Plus I thinks it helps his confidence to know that DeMeco isnt going to shelter him. Edit. DeMeco put extra pressure on him especially after that first fourth and one failure. Trying to change momentum in that stadium is a tall order.
I do know that Purdy won something like 10 games last year and has never lost a game that he's finished. I'll take.my chances with Purdy at QB.
Did you think this way with Mills?
Yep, take off the training wheels and lets get this show on the road. No excuses
Sweech
Onside Kick Specialist
I think the data can definitely lie. Especially something like this which is in it's infancy.
The S2 is at such an early point like this with low amounts of actual data.
They've advertised their product in a very clever way but there's several obvious holes in it.
1. It's a new product. It may have been around for 7 years but it was not testing every single eligible QB over that period. I don't even think they managed to test every single one for 2023 - just the top ones, which I actually think was a first for them. So saying a QB who tests poorly hasn't made it makes sense when there's QBs who have made it but who could have tested poorly, but weren't actually tested. Furthermore the ones who tested poor didn't make it because statistically most simply don't make it. That's just the most likely outcome.
2. With that established the veracity of the claim, "no one who tested poorly has made it" comes into question and actually creates several questions like: Who has been tested? What constitutes "made it"? What constitutes a poor score? All these questions become very important because we need to know whose been tested out of the pool of "made it" QBs and if making it takes multiple years, which let's be honest for QBs it does in most people's eyes then 7 years is a really short amount of time. If for example you need 3 years of a QBs production to say they made it then only the first 4 years of data from S2 even matter and then how many QBs in those years were actually tested? How many QBs have "made it" in the NFL over a 7 year period? Probably not many in all truth. How many of those that "made it" took the S2? Again, probably not that many in truth.
I think if the S2 made a list of QBs who "made it" and which of those QBs took the test pre-draft I think you'd see it doesn't line up 1 for 1 because they likely don't have enough that actually took the test.
We also need to see the list of people who scored poorly. Which again is information they withold. What if that list is like 6 people long? Pretty easy to say "no one who scored poorly has made it" when it's a list of 6 guys and some like CJ are rookies or second year players who can't constitute "made it" by default.
3. From an early look it appears most score well on the test to begin with so the QBs who do not create a very small sample size. Most QBs don't make it and if so few score poorly and so few actually make it you've created a statistical probability that it's likely that someone who scores poorly also won't make it not because of the veracity of your own test but simply because that's the largest statistically likely outcome in the first place.
My final word on this matter also simply has to do with tests, especially ones that use multiple functional simulation tools like this one. Some people don't test well but they produce well. This is why in any field and in any industry there will never, ever be a one size fits all test. We all probably went to school with and work with people who produce well and test poorly. That's just a fact of life.
Last edited:
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
that’s a very specific set of circumstances and rather overly simplistic viewpoint you put forth there about Purdy…but I’ll let you make it. Your opinion & all.
aside from that, what you say about “taking your chances”….well that’s all every team who takes a qb high in the draft is doing..taking their chances……. and no garbage ass test like S2 is gonna reveal some shortcut to being able to better ID a guy who’ll succeed at the position than any of the other ways that have been used over the years; there’s just too much that goes into it.
That’s why football is the greatest sport on earth….b/c It truly is a TEAM game.
Texansballer74
The Marine
What man stop the nonsense. Go do some research because I’m not about to repeat myself to you.
sprtsfanatic
Veteran
Id take Stroud behind Purdy's Oline...is that possible? can I have that??
Sweech
Onside Kick Specialist
I realize this looks somewhat like word soup so I decided to break it down in a more digestible way to get across my point.
I will list every starting quarterback across the league. We will then judge whether they took the test and whether they've "made it" and then see what's left.
Jets - Rodgers - DNP (Did Not Participate) Too Old
Dolphins - Tua - Did he test? Does he count as "made it"? I could go either way on this one but for sake of argument let's say yes and yes
Patriots - Jones - Very similar to Tua except I'm saying he has not made it
Bills - Allen - This is the first of a few where I seriously question whether he tested pre-draft. At this point the S2 would be a year or two old. Is a projected first rounder taking some one or two year old test and are NFL teams even using it at this point? My intuition says no and no.
Raiders - Garoppolo - DNP too old
Chiefs - Mahomes - Exact same as Allen except the test is even younger. I'd be shocked if he took the test pre-draft.
Chargers - Herbert - This is likely the area where I could see the test start being used so I'll just say yes for sake of argument.
Broncos - Wilson - DNP too old
Browns - Watson - Same as Mahomes
Ravens - Jackson - Same as Mahomes, Allen, etc. test is too new at this point
Steelers - Pickett - Doesn't constitute as made it
Bengals - Burrows - Just like Herbert I'll say he took it and he's definitely made it
Jaguars - Lawrence - Same as Burrows
Titans - Tannehill - DNP too old
Texans - Stroud - Too early
Colts - Richardson - Too early
Cowboys - Prescott - DNP too old
Commanders - Howell - Too early
Eagles - Hurts - I'll say he took it and made it
Giants - Jones - Tough call because I don't want to say he's made it. I wouldn't want him as my QB, would you?
Rams - Stafford - DNP too old
49ers - Purdy - Doesn't qualify as having made it. Early signs are good but we've seen QBs fail at this point many times.
Cardinals - Dobbs - Hasn't made it
Seahawks - Smith - DNP too old
Packers - Love - Hasn't made it
Lions - Goff - DNP too old
Vikings - Cousins - DNP too old
Bears - Fields - Hasn't made it
Falcons - Ridder - Hasn't made it
Buccaneers - Mayfield - Hasn't made it
Saints - Carr - DNP too old
Panthers - Young - Too early
So from a very early breakdown this is exactly what I'm talking about. Connecting QBs who have made it and who took the test is incredibly difficult because there's not many who have made it and who I'd believe even took the test within the tests 7 year window of existence. The window for the S2s validity sandwiches itself into a small frame between old QBs who didn't take the test and young ones who haven't made it yet.
The statement, "no one who failed has made it" can both be true and can be incredibly misleading when it only looks like I'd say Tua, Herbert, Burrows, Lawrence, and Hurts took the test and made it as QBs. That's also giving the benefit of the doubt to S2 and even saying they all took that test. In all likelihood 1 or 2 didn't. So that's five guys. Five. That's such a small sample size where the more accurate statement is Tua, Herbert, Burrows, Lawrence, and Hurts passed the test and not those who fail never make it. Both statements are true but only one contains the more pertinent and accurate information. Failure doesn't preclude someone from actually making it, it's just the data is so new and entry points are so few that it hasn't been done yet. Key point there is "yet".
For example lets say I use the statement "every girl I've ever slept with says I'm the best in bed". That could be a true statement even if it's one that makes you roll your eyes. It could just be true because I slept with two who were virgins so obviously I'm the best they've had to that point and two were liars so they said it but they didn't mean it, but my statement only cares whether they said it or not. If I actually slept with more women as my statement implies then it probably fails to remain true but I've conveniently left out the relevant information, much like S2 has done with its claim that those who fail never make it. It's far too early to see whether that's true and I have full confidence CJ will break that claim for what it is.
Last edited:
sprtsfanatic
Veteran
actually think its been stated that Mahomes did take the s2 test and scored high....now whether it was pre draft idk...but maybe that will give you a better idea of time frame since you reference him for time.
Sweech
Onside Kick Specialist
It has to be pre-draft or I wouldn't include it in the data.
Stroud took it pre-draft, I have to measure that against others who did the same. If Mahomes takes it after being a year or two in the league I'd have to imagine he scores much higher than he would if he took it pre-draft.
Just the same as if Stroud in 3 years takes it again I'd be willing to bet he passes.
Not only that but we're not also including the changes the test likely has. Is it the same test it was 6 or 7 years ago? I kind of doubt it.
Furthermore for sake of argument lets include Mahomes. That's six guys, that's way too small a sample size to be making huge sweeping claims about making it versus not making it. You could make those same six guys take any test you want and so long as they all pass you get to make the same claim that no one who has failed has ever made it.
sprtsfanatic
Veteran
yeah like i said idk if mahomes took it pre draft...just stating he has taken it and was said to have scored extremely high...if not the highest so far...
While the S2 isn't always right, it has yet to be wrong.
Scoring highly on it hasn't meant that player will be successful but those who have scored low have performed poorly without exception.
All I know is I said “hey he missed some throws that he will need to make in the future” and you had replied with excuses. Which is fine I agree with your excuses which is why im not making any conclusions about Stroud. But it’s a fact that there were several throws that were there, where he had the opportunity to make the throw, and that he missed. It’s fine, I’m not saying he’s a bust because he missed a few throws game 1, but it’s something to watch down the line
FuzzyLogic
Mathematically Possible
And that's the problem with statistics... people can normally make them mean whatever they want them to.
I don't have a dog in the 'will he', 'won't he' be a good quarterback - I'm a Texans fan so hope he does well, but it's nothing to me if he fails either.
But it is illogical to say doing well on the test doesn't predict success, but doing poorly does predict failure. Especially when you have a small sample size, and that sample size consists of a person, place, or thing, that typically has a low success rate like NFL QBs.
If it was a surefire predictor of failure, every NFL team, college team, CFL, XFL, etc. etc. team would be a subscriber.
It could be a great test, and it absolutely may be able to predict something, eventually - but you need data, lots of data to be able to make a claim. The same reason you don't run a drug test with 10 people and if none of them die you start selling it.
Since 2017 there have been 80 QBs drafted how many of those have panned out? How many took the test? What's the length of a piece of string?
There is not enough data for people to be freaking out over this test.
I don't have a dog in the 'will he', 'won't he' be a good quarterback - I'm a Texans fan so hope he does well, but it's nothing to me if he fails either.
But it is illogical to say doing well on the test doesn't predict success, but doing poorly does predict failure. Especially when you have a small sample size, and that sample size consists of a person, place, or thing, that typically has a low success rate like NFL QBs.
If it was a surefire predictor of failure, every NFL team, college team, CFL, XFL, etc. etc. team would be a subscriber.
It could be a great test, and it absolutely may be able to predict something, eventually - but you need data, lots of data to be able to make a claim. The same reason you don't run a drug test with 10 people and if none of them die you start selling it.
Since 2017 there have been 80 QBs drafted how many of those have panned out? How many took the test? What's the length of a piece of string?
There is not enough data for people to be freaking out over this test.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
The test isn’t a new thing..teams have been using it for around about 7 years. It’s just now making its way to the mainstream b/c Bryce Young’s camp sort of used it as a pre-draft “check mark” in his favor over CJ at a time when everyone and their mama was locked in on Young’s shorter stature. This was also at the height of the draft eval process and also when CJ was threatening to overtake him as the guy locked in to go #1 b/c of his prototypical measureables. That move by Young’s agent was pretty savy imo.
What has fanned the flames of this garbage ass test has been the early success Purdy has seen as “Mr. Irrelevant”. People in the media started asking how SF sorta “fell forward” as the Trey Lance/Jimmy G saga continued to unfold and what they saw in Purdy over just getting some vet to be their 3rd string qb. someone obviously leaked HIS S2 score (likely the guys who created the test) and now fans have got ahold of it thinking their team has been behind the 8-ball.
What has fanned the flames of this garbage ass test has been the early success Purdy has seen as “Mr. Irrelevant”. People in the media started asking how SF sorta “fell forward” as the Trey Lance/Jimmy G saga continued to unfold and what they saw in Purdy over just getting some vet to be their 3rd string qb. someone obviously leaked HIS S2 score (likely the guys who created the test) and now fans have got ahold of it thinking their team has been behind the 8-ball.
Exactly. It seems like fuzzy logic to me.
And he still wouldn't be as good as Purdy. He should be closer to Lance since Stroud hasn't played much in the NFL. Also by week 4 the Texans should have an OL that's comparable to the 49ers OL.
LOL. Looks like you've finally broken up with Garoppolo and have moved on to Purdy.
I know you were a Mills fan to begin with, but fell off of the wagon pretty quickly. I'm trying to remember if you said that Mills didn't have weapons and the OL sucked (All of which is true.) Did you say Pep and Lovie ran an antiquated offense? Did you say lets give Mills some time to learn a new offense? I dont recall you saying any of these things, but now it's lets make excuses for Stroud time. I knew it wouldn't take long for this to happen. Double standards.
Did you notice that Jimmy G won another game this weekend. Jimmy G's only issue is injury. Look at what he's done when healthy all yr. Yes I like an underdog like Purdy, I also like guys who win games rather than put up a bunch of meaningless stats.
Obviously you prefer stats over winning.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Never underestimate the nefarious intentions of agents and people in general. We all remember how that pic of Tunsil with a bong mask leaked like 2 days before the draft. Someone knew what they were doing & what they wanted to accomplish when they did that. Tunsil has been with us for years and has by all accounts been a model NFL player with no issues whatsoever. Then there’s this from one of the creators of the test on the scores that were leaked.
dude basically said that the test scores leaked are inaccurate on a few of the guys and explained a particular situation with 1 of them and makes a point to mention CJ…without actually confirming that 1 of the inaccurate scores was his. But when you look at the list his score is so far and away worse than everyone else’s, you know 1 of the inaccurate scores listed on the leak & that the situation he spoke about was CJ’s.
he goes on to say that the re-test by the prospect was significantly higher than what was on the leaked list.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...ryce-young-highest-for-qbs-c-j-stroud-lowest/
dude basically said that the test scores leaked are inaccurate on a few of the guys and explained a particular situation with 1 of them and makes a point to mention CJ…without actually confirming that 1 of the inaccurate scores was his. But when you look at the list his score is so far and away worse than everyone else’s, you know 1 of the inaccurate scores listed on the leak & that the situation he spoke about was CJ’s.
he goes on to say that the re-test by the prospect was significantly higher than what was on the leaked list.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...ryce-young-highest-for-qbs-c-j-stroud-lowest/
Last edited:
Colts fan here. Go ahead and start mills might give us a better chance to win lol.
I know it's a team game. But after 7 yrs the S-2 has been a pretty accurate predictor of if you dont do well on the test you wont be a succesful NFL QB. For the record I dont think Stroud will be terrible.
Agree to disagree.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Has he EVER been healthy for a full year he wasn’t on the bench in NE
?
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
lol it has not! You yourself just said it’s not accurate in a post upthread
& way to step out on a limb there with no real evidence saying he will be terrible. The odds favor you in that regard considering the success rate period isn’t that high.
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
Well, he does suck but he did go undefeated against y'all last year.
That's a lot of research. I believe in the S-2 you obviously dont.
I'm glad you have confidence in Stroud, I dont think he will ever be anything more than slightly above avg at best. So by the way you setup your post as if Stroud's slightly better than avg then he's made it. See how numbers can be played with.
What that said, I hope you're right.
I didn't say I thought he would be terrible. That's just not true.
You love you some stats dont you Earl?
He was healthy the SB yr.Has he EVER been healthy for a full year he wasn’t on the bench in NE
I don't know how you came to that conclusion. I do know that if Stroud had 82 yards passing like Burrows or threw 2 INTs like Bryce Young or 3 INTs like Josh Allen, you would be posting about his stats.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
yeah conveniently the year he had the best defense in the league…a year he also “won” a playoff game throwing 8 damn times