What's Mario's Value...

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by thunderkyss, Feb 23, 2012.

?

What's Mario worth.... at most

  1. > $15M/yr

    3.3%
  2. $10M-$15M/yr

    63.3%
  3. < $10M/yr

    10.0%
  4. I don't care as long as it's cap friendly for the first 3 years

    23.3%
  1. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Forget about the cap number (even though that is the most important number).

    Forget about the money to be paid over the first three years of the contract (even though that is the second most important number)

    For now, let's focus on the least important number of all. The avg cost of Mario's new deal...... if you were the guy writing his new deal, what's your max avg salary?

    $15M/yr

    $23M/yr

    $6M/yr

    or do you really not care as long as it's cap friendly for the first 3 years?

    please, justify your max valuation.
     
  2. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    I think our max offer should be no more than $14M/yr

    I base that on Julius Peppers' contract 2 years ago.

    I think the Texans should offer him somewhere between Charles Johnson Money ($10M/yr) & Peppers' money.... max $14M/yr.
     
  3. Mr teX

    Mr teX Hall of Fame

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    10-14 is probably where im at with it...if he declines & decides to go elsewhere so be it. both sides have cases to be made as to why it should be somewhere in this range imo.
     
  4. welsh texan

    welsh texan Lest we forget

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    Based on extremely limited knowledge of the cap situation etc, the number I feel comfortable with is ~$12m/per.
    That said, its a piss in the wind opinion based on mostly piss in the wind information.

    The reason I've come to that valuation is because I believe Mario is extremely important to our D, I think our D has the potential to make history with Mario a part of it, I think it has the potential to win the SB without him as long as the O also performs.

    However, given the snippets we're hearing about our possible cap situation heading into free agency, it also seems important to me to sign this guy at a significant discount to his hit last year

    Another thing I'd say is, regardless of what others have said on this matter, I think its more important to ensure we keep this team together this season than worry what happens next season. Why worry about a years time when they are offering a Lombardi for the best team between now and then? How about not worrying what happens with Schaub's contract at a time when the guy is on crutches and may not be worth a new contract by then?
     
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  5. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Great post, all of it.

    However, it sounds like you think he is worth more than $12M, but because of the cap situation you're only prepared to offer him $12M..... which is cool.

    Another thing to look at, he only made $9M/yr (according to his base contract) over the first 6 years of his career. Which, I think is why he would not have wanted to renegotiate the final year of that deal, because it would totally ruin what he "earned" over the first 5 years.

    If you took that $16M & turned it into $25M to go along with a new contract over the next 5 or 6 years, then he played the first 5 years for only $7.6M/yr, which is silly for a first overall pick.

    If you're going to say the $16M still goes to his first six years, then the remaining $9M will go to his next 6 years....
    Let's say you want his next 6 years, starting in 2012, to average $12M/yr, that's a total contract of $72M (Charles Johnson money

    $9M of that is counted for in the $25M bonus. We subtract $9M from $72 & get $63M. Divide that by 6 we're looking at $10.5M/yr.

    Now you've got to take the $25M bonus, divide that by 6 for an extra $4.2M towards his cap number. Throw in the rules about a player's salary can't increase more than 30% from one year to the next & you're looking at a $14.2M cap number for 6 years.

    Ain't going to happen. So, if I were Mario's agent, I would have advised him totally against restructuring the last year of his contract. Mainly because he didn't get a signing bonus.

    Had he got a signing bonus as a rookie, his salary over the last two years would have been meaningless. The earlier you redo the contract, the higher the player's average salary for those early years (with a signing bonus).

    I'm rambling now, but let's say he got a $25M signing bonus & $4M salary over the first three years of the contract. That's $37M leaving $17M to be paid over the last two years for an average of $9M over 6 (which is what Mario was paid). So for his 4th year, he could have had a salary of $7M ($12M cap) & $10M ($15M cap) his 5th year.

    Now, let's say we want to waive that 5th year, we want to redo his contract. In the 4 previous years, he earned $44M, he effectively averaged $11M/yr on a contract that was written at $9M/yr.... in that case the FA-to-be will be extremely willing to redo his contract.

    The way Mario did his contract, or Adrian Peterson did his.... they want the money in the final year, they'll be reluctant to renegotiate, unless they think they'll be cut & won't find better offers as a FA.

    Damn..... I feel like GP.

    Welsh.... I said all that to say your $12M/yr is still a sizeable raise for Mario Williams, an extra $3M/yr.
     
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  6. Corrosion

    Corrosion Idealist

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    I think fair market value might be greater than $15m .... meaning someone might offer him stupid money.

    I place his value in the $10m-$15m per bracket ....

    But I voted "dont care as long as its cap friendly" as that is probably the most important aspect of any MW contract - allowing for the other FA's to be resigned.
     
  7. ckhouston

    ckhouston Hall of Fame

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    As close as we can talk him into a 10M a year base, but incentive laden.
     
  8. b0ng

    b0ng Ooops

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    I would be fine with him signing a contract that did not put more than a $12m/yr cap hit on our books. What he actually gets paid is something I care very little about, but as long as his cap hit is around 10% or less I think I would be okay with that. Maybe 11%, definitely no more than 15% (Which is probably way too much).
     


  9. Trail.Blazr

    Trail.Blazr All Pro

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    Defying my love for Mario, I am a bit hard nosed on the poll. I'm of the impression that he's got mad money already and the ROI has been seemingly disappointing, whatever the reason. I know that the market would say otherwise, which makes my choice absurd to think it would retain him in Houston, but my what have you done for me lately side says, when he still has yet to achieve the potential which his past contracts were based on, I'm not one for progressive betting. But then again, people win by that strategy...
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2012
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  10. dalemurphy

    dalemurphy Hall of Fame

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    I could care less if Mario made $30 million a year if it wasn't for a cap and an NFL budget. So, I'm not sure I can answer the question the way it was posed.

    Taking any goofy structuring out of the equation, though, based on the current NFL cap, I'd say Mario is worth about $8 million per year to this team. I think he's worth more to other teams that need a 4-3 strong side DE. But, for this team: $8 million. My reasons are well chronicled in other threads:

    - injuries
    - production of the defense sans Mario
    - inconsistent motor
    - better 4-3 DE than 3-4 OLB
     
  11. BullNation4Life

    BullNation4Life Hall of Fame

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    CAUTION....:clown: at work....

    Pretty sad when one of your own players is worth more to other teams, including OTHER 3-4 defenses, than the fans of that players own team....

    like the song goes..."Don't know what you got, till it's gone."
     
  12. Texecutioner

    Texecutioner Hall of Fame

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    8 Million dollars is fair in my eyes as well. That's about right considering how he performs play in and play out.

    Anyone suggesting that Mario should be paid more than 10 Million a year by the Texans is nuts. That would be a complete waste of money considering the other pass rushers we have now and how much easier it should be to find other ones to fit well in this system as far as just rushing the passer. Let Mario get over paid somewhere else. Lord knows we've already done that for several years.
     
  13. Texecutioner

    Texecutioner Hall of Fame

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    Caution :homer: at work.

    What's pretty sad is how you toss this kind of slime at Dale for pointing out a lot of glaring issues on this subject and completely act like none of them have any merit. You don't have to agree with the assertion that Mario isn't worth it, but don't sit here and act like it's the most ridiculous position to take on earth regarding a guy who just came off a season ending injury where his team's defense didn't miss a beat without him. Take your homer glasses off for a second and recognize that we had a top 3 defense in the league all season long without Mario Williams on the field from several young players who should only get better whom all play at a more intense pace than Mario Williams ever has. If Mario Williams was on some other team and he was a FA right now, you'd probably be laughing at anyone stating to pay him around 15 Million a year for this team after the season we just had.
     
  14. DocBar

    DocBar Hall of Fame

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    I went with $10-15M/yr because that's just what "elite" passrushers command. I'm one of the kooks that doesn't think MW is particularly elite, though. I think he's above average at his position, but inconsistent to the point that he disappears for entire games.
    To point out a fallacy in some thinking (looking at you Welsh), the reason you don't go for broke for one season, on one (IMO injury prone) player is that football is a team sport and it's a very rare talent that can get a team to a SB all by himself. Luck plays a large part in winning the SB, just ask the Giants. Teams also want to consistently be in the hunt for the SB. Lots and lots of teams have been 1 or 2 year wonders that burn out quickly, due to cap hell. The truly elite teams in the NFL routinely let players who are considered "elite" walk or be traded so that they can stay relevant in the hunt for the SB and improve the overall team. You don't see Pittsburgh or NE getting themselves in this situation too often. Pittsburgh is there right now, and all indications are that they let Wallace walk to prevent the same situation next season. The Texans are in the same boat. Who do you want them to emulate? I vote the Steelers and Patriots. Perennial playoff tems and SB contenders.
    Think of this the next time one of those Dirct TV commercials come on. Don;t end up in a ditch.
     
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  15. dalemurphy

    dalemurphy Hall of Fame

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    Where were you in October, November, December of 2011... not to mention this January?

    I know what we've got when Mario's gone... and, it's very, very good!
     
  16. Double Barrel

    Double Barrel Modified Simian

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    Our defense was badass without him.

    Not knocking Mario, as I would love to see him continue his career with the Texans.

    But, I cannot support overpaying him to keep him here at the expense of other areas of the team.

    It really depends on what Mario wants in the end. It's his call, and if it's all about the money (which is certainly his right), then he will not be a Texan in 2012.

    But, if his mentality is like A.J., to win with the team that drafted you, we have a shot.
     
  17. leebigeztx

    leebigeztx Hall of Fame

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    36-42m guaranteed in the 1st 3 yrs. After that,it doesn't matter to me,mario,his agent,or the texans. If he turns it down,good luck,wish him success and on to the other business.
     
  18. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Let's think about this. The Steelers gave James Harrison the biggest LB contract in history at the time. Then just 3 years later signed Woodley to an even larger contract. So let's put an end to this "Steelers don't pay elite players."

    Then, which elite players have these teams "let go" that continued on as "elite" players? Randy Moss? I think the correct characterization of these organizations, is that they are more correct than not about knowing when to hold'em & when to fold'em.
     
  19. Texan_Bill

    Texan_Bill Subscribed Contributor

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    "Value" versus "Cost" are mutually exclusive.


    What I mean is that with the performances of Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed, Mario's "value" to the Texans isn't necessarily that much (monetarily). Cost for a physical specimen and a good pass rusher; cost would be too high, given there are several teams that would be willing to overpay for him, relative to the various team's situations...

    If that made any sense!??!?

    :facepalm: Bill!
     
  20. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Is BullNation4Life being a homer? Maybe, but let's look at the facts.

    He is using stats.... objective performance indicators to support his position. You & dalemurphy are using a subjective measure to support yours. A subjective measure that is shared by a minority of posters on this board. A subjective measure that I have not heard or seen by anyone in the media (industry if you will) other than Lance Zierline.

    Antonio Smith does not share your subjective opinion, Wade Phillips does not share your subjective opinion, Connor Barwin does not share your subjective opinion, Warren Sapp does not share your subjective opinion, Michael Strahan does not share your objective opinion, Deacon Jones (arguably the best pass rusher of all time) does not share your subjective opinion.... but BullNation4Life is being a homer?

    Back to the objective stats.... in 5 of 6 years, Mario Williams has led this team in sacks, hurries, knock downs... despite being injured.... despite being "outplayed" by Mr. Effort (Antonio Smith).

    In his sixth season, Mario Williams led the Texans in sacks through 5 weeks. He led the team in sacks through 6 weeks. He led the team in sacks through 8 weeks. He led the team in sacks through 9 weeks. Mario Williams led the team in sacks through 12 weeks. All, but what, 15 minutes?, Mario was on the bench.

    On the bench. & we're only talking 5 sacks.

    But BulletNation4Life is being the Homer?

    One more thing. Mario Williams played (used loosely) the previous 6 seasons for $9M/yr. Led the team in Sacks through most of that time. Two double digit years. Very few people have more sacks over the same time period. Two Probowl Appearances...... & it's not like he started because the "real" starter backed out.. & you want him to take a pay-cut?

    You think that is "fair" that is what he's "worth"

    I think BullNation4Life used the :clown: correctly & though BullNation4Life may be a homer, it's not because of his opinion on this subject.
     
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