What to Expect from Keshawn Martin and LaVon Brazill's Rookie Years

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by srrono, May 7, 2012.

  1. srrono

    srrono Hall of Fame

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    After months of media hype, the NFL draft is over, and fans finally have new members of their team to welcome to town.

    Expectations for draft picks are high, but are they too high?

    Over the course of the next few weeks, "What to Expect" will examine every draft pick from the AFC South in its historical context. Using past performances from similarly drafted players and by examining the way in which each team develops certain positions, I will create a realistic baseline by which to judge the performance of each pick.

    Readers should be aware that rookies historically perform much, much worse than fan expectations.

    Also keep in mind that I am not saying the player will perform to these expectations, but rather anything better than the results should be considered a successful rookie year, and anything worse would be a disappointment.

    These are not predictions. They are baselines.

    Today we move on to the late-round wideouts. The Texans took wideout/kick returner Keshawn Martin in the late fourth round, and Indianapolis added LaVon Brazill in the sixth. Despite nearly 80 picks between them, the profile for both players is similar.

    Since 2005, there have been 86 wideouts taken in rounds four through six. Fifteen of them (17%) never played a down in the NFL. The best of the bunch was Mike Williams of Tampa who posted 65 catches for 964 yards and 11 scores his rookie year. He is a huge outlier, however.

    Only four players had at least 40 catches. Only 19 had at least 20. The odds of a guy not making the roster at all are close to the odds that he'll have a 20 catch season.

    Only 10 receivers had more than two touchdowns.

    Of the 86 players taken, 44 had two or fewer catches in their rookie year.

    Roughly half of the players taken ran back kicks at some point. Players like Steve Breaston, Johnny Knox and Pierre Garcon were in this category. Many of the returners were very successful, and ten of them ran back kicks for scores in their first year.

    Both the Texans and Colts have had recent success with wideouts and returners in the middle rounds. Indianapolis snagged Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon there recently, and if you go way back, Indianapolis legend Bill Brooks was a fourth-round pick. Jerome Mathis made a Pro Bowl for the Texans as a returner after being selected in round four.

    Summary

    When a team takes a receiver/returner in the middle to late rounds, there is a good chance the player isn't going to make the team. The 'bust factor' is extraordinarily high for players in this range.

    That's not to say there aren't some big names on this list. Austin Collie, Brandon Marshall, Mike Thomas, Pierre Garcon and Johnny Knox all came from this range. In all, there have been five Pro Bowlers taken in this range since 2005, mostly kick returners.

    If Brazill or Martin become full-time kick returners they have a chance to do very well. As wideouts, if either one of them winds up with a 20 catch, 300 yard, 1 touchdown season, they'll be in the upper quarter of players taken in that range.

    A more realistic expectation would be 10 catches, 100 yards, and no scores. Even those modest numbers put them in the top half of mid to late-round wideouts.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...eshawn-martin-and-lavon-brazills-rookie-years
     
    eriadoc likes this.
  2. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    I have little expectation of Martin other than he replaces Jacoby as or punt returner and maybe kickoff returner too, and that he makes sure Trindon Holliday stays off the roster.

    Posey is supposed to be a WR3 at the least, and a WR2 at best. He has to be good or it was a busted pick...but also got us Jared Crick so maybe that's the fallback plan if Posey busts.

    From what people say about Posey, and from what I read about him in Texans articles...they all think he has the goods. So IMO, he's a bust if he doesn't produce early and often.
     
  3. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    My expectation would be based upon our player in our system/coaches. Comparing to another might be fun & interesting but not very helpful. For example, Demeco Ryans in Philly's system would have much higher expectations than if he had remained in Texans system.

    Concerning rookie draft picks it is even harder to evaluate. Texans had a huge need at WR2 but traded out and down to get "their"guy Posey. Fair or not, I will have expectations of him being as good as a 2nd round receiver. If he performs as they expect then he is even a better deal at lower round. See Arian Foster....
     
  4. 76Texan

    76Texan Hall of Fame

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    The production of the players will depend on how the Texans want to run their offense this year.

    If they continue to thrive for balance between the running game and the passing game, there will be fewer opportunities for the receivers.

    Also, until the opponents can stop Foster and Tate out of the backfield, the RBs will see plenty of passes thrown their way.

    The Texans may also spread the ball to OD, Graham, and Casey.

    If AJ remains healthy, he will need the ball in his hands to make play.

    There are so many factors involved.

    What is more realistic, IMO, is to see whether Posey can get open (even when the ball isn't thrown his way), or whether he can keep the defense a little more honest with a few deep routes (again, even if the ball isn't thrown his way).
     
  5. The Pencil Neck

    The Pencil Neck Subscribed Contributor

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    This kinda fits in with something I saw when I ran numbers for receivers and where they were mocked vs. where they were actually drafted and how successful they were.

    In general, the later a guy is selected in the real draft, the worse he performs. There are exceptions but it fits as a general rule. The real draft and the mock drafts have the same players for the most part but the real drafters are better at predicting how productive they're actually going to be.

    Because of this year's depth at WR, I think we'll see more productivity into the later rounds with this year's class.

    But like most here, I expect more WR production from Posey (and possibly Jones) than Martin. But I expect Martin to be our PR and possibly KR.
     
  6. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    If he can do that well, he is worth his pick; special teams and occasional passes is gravy for de chicken.
     
  7. welsh texan

    welsh texan Lest we forget

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    Playoff's article isn't talking about Posey though, its talking about Martin in the 4th. TBH, if he does get 10 catches/100 yards then we just got better at WR, because the guy he's replacing is named Bryant Johnson.

    If Martin comes in and gives us that and some value on ST's as a rookie under Kubiak, than maybe we've got something we can work with later down the line, because Kube's doesn't like to throw them out there early (something he needs to get over with Posey, we need him to be at least #3 game 1, and need to look to him to make KW the slot receiver he's built to be by the end of the season).
     
  8. gary

    gary Hall of Fame

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    I do not really make comparisons it just depends on their attitude going in.
     


  9. DBCooper

    DBCooper Outlaw

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    If Crick can play WR also, he will be a hell of a steal!
     
  10. The Pencil Neck

    The Pencil Neck Subscribed Contributor

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    He's very athletic for a big man.
     
  11. VTexan

    VTexan The Realist

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    Going to be bold here and say that Dwight Jones will be the best receiver we got from this draft.
     
  12. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    I was using Posey as an example of how I evaluate. I expect more from a 3rd than I do a 4th but with Posey I expect more as I said "fair or not" because of Smith's decision to trade down to fill a need. The bolded is exactly what I said about Martin.
     
  13. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    You may be correct. Others & I had mocked him as high as 2nd round during the season. I think the party thing and conflict with school due to that thru him off line. Perhaps he needs to put that behind him and step into his new role as an NFL player. He does have the skill set. I was pleasantly surprised to see him signed. He and Keenum should hook up to play pass and catch every free minute even if it is on some high school field.
     
  14. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    So you start off by saying we aren't supposed to talk about Posey...and you end by talking about Posey.

    Posey and Martin will be spoken of in tandem because they were the only two WR draft picks and were selected 3rd round and 4th round.
     
  15. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    This ^^^.

    I think at worst we'll have these two on the PS.
     
  16. Playoffs

    Playoffs Subscribed Contributor

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    BleacherReport -- borrow facts from "real" journalists & paste into yet another BR blog. :smiliepalm:
     
  17. Texn4life

    Texn4life Hall of Fame

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    Am I the only one who thinks signing Braylon Edwards to a 1 year deal wouldn't be the worst of ideas? I realize he had a rough go of it last year, but he was really good for the Jets 2 years ago. I personally just like the value of what it would take to get him here.
     
  18. Rey

    Rey Guest

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    Well, Jacoby had 15 rec for about 150 yards as a rookie. Last season, Jacoby had more return yards than he had receiving yards. If Martin can get 100 yards receiving and be a good returner then I think his rookie season will be successful.

    However, I think he will be a bigger part of the offense than that. McNair specifically said he wants to see Martin in the slot and see if his quickness can help us there. When the owner comes out and says something like that it leads me to believe that they expect him to be a regular contributor on game day.
     
  19. Rey

    Rey Guest

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    I think Keenum maybe could last on the PS, but I think someone would definitely snactch jones up when injuries start happening.

    If anything, he'll have some mysterious injury that wasn't seen by many people and end up on IR for the season....
     
  20. The Pencil Neck

    The Pencil Neck Subscribed Contributor

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    What? Has that happened before?

    :spy:
     

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