What is a 13th pick anyway?

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by Mistril48, Jan 6, 2005.

  1. Mistril48

    Mistril48 All Pro

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    What is a 13th pick in the draft anyway? ThirdEyeBC32 did some research and posted the following:
    http://www.houstontexans.com/fan_zone/messageboards/showthread.php?t=5653

    While ThirdeyeBC32 is precisely accurate, I wanted to look at it in broader terms. What is a #13 pick some years would be a #10 pick, or #15 pick in others, depending on the available talent in the draft year in question. For example, while it’s precisely accurate that Lee Evans was a #13 pick last year, I would suggest it would have come out differently if Williams and possibly Clarett had come out last year. It might have even been different if Buffalo had traded up to take Roethlisberger as was widely speculated. Further, since some teams draft for need, Buffalo may have drafted Evans somewhat based on need rather than based on him being the 13th ranked player.

    In any even, here is an example of some successful selections (Pro Bowl selections this year, plus Dunta) by position, selected near 13th.

    Pos. . Current . . . . . Name . . . . . . . .Year . . Pick

    QB . . Vikings . . . Daunte Culpepper . . . 1999 . . . 11

    RB . . Seahawk . . Shaun Alexander . . . .2000 . . . 19

    WR . .Colts . . . . . Marvin Harrison . . . . 1996 . . . 19

    TE . . Chiefs . . . . Tony Gonzalez . . . . . 1997 . . . 13

    T. . . Chiefs . . . . .Willie Roaf . . . . . . . .1993 . . . . 8
    T. . . Bengals . . . .Willie Anderson . . . . .1996 . . . 10
    T. . . Eagles . . . . .Tra Thomas . . . . . . .1998 . . . 11

    G. . . Seahawk . . . Steve Hutchinson . . .2001 . . . 17

    DT . . Bills . . . . . . Sam Adams . . . . . . . 1994. . . . 8
    DT . . Jaguars .. . . Marcus Stroud . . . . . 2001 . . .13
    DT . . Vikings . . . . Kevin Williams . . . . . .2003. . . . 9

    DE . . Jets . . . . . . John Abraham . . . . . .2000 . . .13
    DE . . Colts . . . . . .Dwight Freeney . . . . .2002 . . .11

    ILB . . Steelers . . . James Farrior . . . . . . 1997 . . . .8
    ILB . . Panthers . . . Dan Morgan . . . . . . .2001 . . . 11

    OLB. . Bills . . . . . . Takeo Spikes . . . . . . 1998 . . . 13
    OLB. . Falcons . . . .Keith Brooking . . . . . .1998 . . . 12
    OLB. . Ravens . . . .Terrell Suggs . . . . . . .2003 . . . 10

    FS . . Cowboys . . . Roy Williams . . . . . . . 2002 . . . .8
    SS . . Steelers . . . .Troy Polamalu . . . . . . 2003 . . .16

    CB . . Ravens . . . . .Chris McAlister . . . . . 1999 . . . 10
    CB . . Texans . . . . .Dunta Robinson . . . . .2004 . . . 10

    This should be the level of talent the Texans are looking for with their selection in the draft this year.

    If The Texans could have one of these players instead of their pick, who would you take?

    . . I'd take Kevin Williams (Babin-Walker-Williams-Peek on passing downs), or Marvin Harrision
     
  2. Grid

    Grid Hall of Fame

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    2001 with pick #19 the Steelers took DT Casey Hampton

    That is who I would take.
     
  3. hou059

    hou059 Veteran

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    I'd take Tony Gonzalez...lets see teams stack eight in the box or double cover Andre Johnson now! :banana:
     
  4. Mistril48

    Mistril48 All Pro

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    Great pick, although he didn't make the Pro Bowl this year.
     
  5. Grid

    Grid Hall of Fame

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    he got injured..but he is the best 3-4 dt in the league
     
  6. Vinny

    Vinny shiny happy fan Staff Member

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    Nice stuff as usual Mistril.

    Last year was a deep draft so I think that this year the draft is marginal at best, and really thin after the first few prospects. In my opinion our 13th pick is more akin to a late first if you compare to last season's talent pool.
     
  7. noxiousdog

    noxiousdog All Pro

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    I don't know if I would go that far. With a pick of any location you can cherry pick the best players to ever come from that area.

    For instance, you've gone back 11 years with picks from 8-19 for a total of 131 picks. If there is only a 18% pro bowl success rate, I don't know that that's the level of talent they are looking for.

    Hoping for? Yes. Solid starter, yes. Expecting, no.
     
  8. Mistril48

    Mistril48 All Pro

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    You're quite right that I cherry picked and that more of the drafted players didn't make the Pro Bowl than did. It's not a list of average players drafted at that slot.

    I confess I didn't 'go back' 11 years as you suggest. If I had, I wouldn't have missed great players like Casey Hampton. I just took the Pro Bowl list and sorted it by draft pick range. I took range because of the different strengths of draft each year and because it's reasonable for the Texans to trade to move around a little, but not to trade up to #1 for example.

    I have to agree with you again. Because the Texans have hit home runs with their first picks in each of their three years, (AJ in Pro Bowl and many saying Dunta should have been), I was trying to say "If they hit again, what kind of player can we expect," but it's perhaps unfair to expect them to hit every year and 13th is lower than they first three years.
     


  9. Mistril48

    Mistril48 All Pro

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    I don't disagree with your thought that we may have less quality to pick from at #13 than last year. I just thought I might add some musings ...
    I think many people thought there were 7 top picks (Manning, Roethlisberger, Fitzgerald, Williams, Gallery, Taylor and Winslow) and then it dropped off. In hindsight, there was a shut down corner (Robinson), although many weren't sure that either Robinson or Hall were sure things. (Rivers was a red herring)

    The one thing that hurt last year was Mike WIlliams. If he came out, it would have pushed picks around a little near the top. Instead, he pushes picks down this year. JMO.

    What really affects the quality of the early draft is the number of Jrs who come out. Generally, Jrs. should only come out if they are looking at a sure #1 pick. (Gaffney was financially hurt for example). I'm not comfortable saying that #13 will be a lower quality pick yet until we hear from the rest of the Jrs. Won't Leinhart, Brooks and Ferguson, for example, push down some talent?

    Hey Vinny, who would you trade for the Texan pick?
     
  10. Vinny

    Vinny shiny happy fan Staff Member

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    The quality Jr's will make some impact, and I'm not sure on a trade...but would not be shocked to see us move around a bit somewhere in this draft. In 'can't miss' quality I'm not real excited about the top of this draft so we may not have picked a bad year to be a near .500 team. The next level of player is not real deep either. I see guys whose names are being tossed around in the middle first this year who just don't strike me as first round value talents when I have had the opportunity to see them play. After a handful of picks it may not make much difference if you have the 13th pick or the 20th pick of this draft. I'm not feeling the love.
     
  11. ledzeppelin229

    ledzeppelin229 Hall of Fame

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    All the more reason to draft BPA other than QB/K/P
     
  12. ArlingtonTexan

    ArlingtonTexan Moderator Staff Member

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    the closer i have looked at thi draft the better i like the overall especially mid-round talent, but mid round talent is generally a mindfield. There is not very many guys you expect to make immediate inpact like last year. there are good players in this draft, but your GM and scouting department needs to know what they are doing. Not a bad year for the Texans to need players at boring position like DL,Ol, LB , and TE.
     

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