The End All Be All To Who Gets #1

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by Damazin, Dec 29, 2005.

  1. Damazin

    Damazin Waterboy

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    Okay people of done all the math dont ask me to explain it is very long and tedious, but trust me it is all correct. Ive gone through every scenario and this is how each of the scenarios sum up. Below are percentage values showing the odds of each team getting the number win IF Houston wins against the Niners.

    The Texans Win
    The 49ers Lose
    The Jets Lose
    The Saints Lose
    The Packers Lose.................The Saints get the number one pick.

    The Texans Win
    The 49ers Lose
    The Jets Lose......................The Texans are the favorites, followed very close by the Jets. SF can only hope to tie HOU.

    The Texans Win
    49ers Lose
    The Jets Lose
    The Packers Lose.................The Texans are the favorites, followed far by the Jets. SF and GB are out.

    The Texans Win
    The 49ers Lose
    The Jets Lose
    The Saints Lose...................The Saints are the clear favorites. The Jets and Texans can only hope to tie NO. SF out.

    Texans Win
    49ers Lose
    Packers Lose.......................The Texans are the clear favorites. SF and GB can only hope to tie HOU.

    The Texans Win
    The 49ers Lose
    The Packers Lose
    The Saints Lose....................The Saints are the clear favorites. The Texans can only hope to tie. SF and GB out.


    Texans Win
    49ers Lose
    Saints Lose.........................The Saints are the favorites followed far by the Texans. SF out.

    Texans Win
    49ers Lose...........................The Texans are the clear favorites. 49ers can only hope to tie.

    Assuming the Texans win (but making no other assumptions about the other teams) the most likely order based on the percentages is:
    1. Saints - 47%
    2. Texans - 43.6%
    3. Jets - 7.9%
    4. Niners - 1.1%
    5. Packers - 0.4%
    Think of these percentages as the odds before an NBA draft lottery. The Packers can get the number one, but their chances are slim to none.
     
  2. awtysst

    awtysst Draft Guru

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    So basically what you seem to be saying is that the game to pay attention to is the New Orleans-Tampa game. If the Saints lose and the Texans win, the Saints end up with the first pick. So we need to have the Saints upset the Bucs. GO SAINTS! WIN WIN WIN!
     
  3. Damazin

    Damazin Waterboy

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    Yes. That is correct. The Texans have the best shot if they Win next week only if New Orleans Wins too.

    If Houston Wins next week and the Sainst lose. The Saints should get the number one pick.
     
  4. bckey

    bckey Hall of Fame

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    I knew that without all the calculating you did.
     
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  5. Jack Bauer

    Jack Bauer All Pro

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    lol:
     
  6. Texas_Thrill

    Texas_Thrill Hall of Fame

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    How about we just wait and see what happens on sunday. This is worse than watching a presidential election.
     
  7. Mathis13

    Mathis13 Veteran

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    Gosh... the Saints arent going to draft Reggie Bush they already have Deuce McAllister
     

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