Through five games, only two teams score touchdowns upon reaching their opponent’s 20 at a lower rate than the Texans (35.3%), whose output on 17 chances (six TDs, 10 FGs, one missed FG) has denied them 47 possible points. Considering the franchise has its first positive scoring margin (+15) since 2018, the team’s red-zone reticence is one of the major obstacles in the way of true playoff contention.
Houston’s loss in Atlanta epitomized one of its most pronounced red-zone problems. The Texans average 1.7 yards per carry in the area, which is 48.9% lower than the league average (2.8). Of their 24 red-zone rushes, six have been stuffed for no gain and four have lost yardage. It isn’t an isolated issue. No team averages fewer yards per carry than the Texans (3.0) on any play, and their -0.210 EPA/play (which measures the chances of a team scoring on any given play) on rushes ranks 30th in the league while their 0.113 EPA/play on passes ranks ninth.
It's a curious regression for Pierce, who earned a reputation as a punishing rusher while rushing for 4.3 yards per carry as a rookie last season. Pierce now averages 2.9 yards per carry, and the 2022 fourth-round pick ranks 45th among all NFL running backs (min. 20 attempts) with 2.21 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus. His 3.28 yards after contact in 2022 ranked 12th. Pierce has not been productive in the red zone. His 12 attempts have gained four yards (0.33 per carry), which includes a 1-yard touchdown run against the Jaguars.
Devin Singletary, who signed a one-year deal after spending four seasons as Buffalo’s primary back, has instead generated more success (four rushes, 11 yards). Leading the Steelers 16-6 in the fourth quarter, Singletary bounced a second-and-4 run to the outside for a 9-yard gain to the 7, battered his way into a 1-yard gain, then slung a trick-play toss to Schultz for a 6-yard touchdown pass.
Singletary’s efficiency inspires the creativity that befits the madness red-zone offenses sometimes require. Texans tight end coach Jake Moreland, who oversees the team’s red-zone game plans, joked the Singletary pass actually went “awful” when they installed it during the Thursday practice before the Steelers game. But when Singletary, who Moreland said has “been running the ball really hard,” forced the Pittsburgh defense to load the box and overextend against the run, Moreland and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik felt it was the proper time to strike with the halfback pass.
Moreland called Houston’s red-zone offense a “collaborative process,” but it’s a facet Slowik has allowed him to manage. Moreland, who’s in his third NFL season after spending four years as Western Michigan’s offensive coordinator, spends his time building the red-zone plan as most play-callers do: dissecting film from across the league, searching for trends, testing philosophical theories against the opponent’s defensive tendencies.
Slowik calls the plays, but on Fridays, Moreland leads the red-zone meetings. Woods says Moreland is a “high-energy guy” during their sessions, and he’s clear on “seeing what their defense is going to be in.” Senior offensive assistant Bill Lazor, a three-time offensive coordinator, often helps brainstorm, and Slowik installs the plays during practice and chooses from them during in-game red-zone scenarios.
“There’s a bunch of us that come up with ideas,” said Moreland, a former tight end with the Jets and Browns who joined the Texans after coaching tight ends for the Broncos in 2022. “We all kind of look at it. I might come up with an idea, and (Slowik) goes, ‘Well, what if we did this?’ And then, (Lazor) might be like, ‘Oh, hey, I’ve done this.’ It kind of just takes on a life of its own, and before we know it, we get to a play we all feel comfortable with, and the quarterback’s got his reads, the offensive line, all their protection issues are taken care of, and it just kind of goes that way.”
Most of Houston’s red-zone solutions originate in the passing game. Stroud averages 3.7 yards per attempt in the area (the league average is 3.4), and the No. 2 overall pick’s 98.7 red-zone quarterback rating is 6.3% higher than the league average (92.7). There’s certainly more reason for the Texans to be more confident through the air. Stroud’s 0.102 EPA/play ranks 11th among quarterbacks, and his 186 passing attempts without an interception are now an NFL record for a quarterback at the start of his career.
The protection issues that flared in Houston’s first two games have been mitigated. Stroud was sacked three times in three red-zone opportunities against the Ravens and Colts, and all three instances yielded field goal attempts (Fairbairn missed one against the Colts). Stroud hasn’t been sacked in three straight games, and, within that stretch, he’s completed 4-of-8 passes for 31 yards and three touchdowns in red-zone opportunities.