Texans promote TE coach Tim Kelly to be the OC

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by zshawn10, Feb 2, 2019.

  1. sandman

    sandman Brexit Advisor

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    What is the timeframe of "now"? There are definitely more individual teams that saw a scoring rise in 2018, but not sure that translates league-wide trend spanning multiple years. 2018 was only the second time that the league average was over 23 points per game. The only other time was in 2013. 2017 was the lowest scoring season in a decade.

    Outside of 2018 and 2013, the fluctuation over the last decade has been +/- 1 point range (21.7 to 22.8).

    I'm not calling OB an offensive genius, guru or anything like that. BUT, in a league where the total average increase over the last 4 years has been 0.5 points, he has increased the Texans scoring average 5.2 points. So it can be argued that the Texans scoring has improved because of more than an uptick in overall scoring around the league. That being said, we were starting with a fairly low bar so everything is taken with a grain of salt. Remember I'm not advocating him for being enshrined in Canton for is play-calling. But to say the only reason the Texans had the most points in team history is because everyone is scoring more these days, then we are either not looking at the data correctly or translating a league-wide one year blip in scoring as a trend or baseline.
     
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  2. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    Then tell me why Kubiak offenses didn't score more?
     
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  3. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    I agree, are you saying BOB/Kelly aren't going to be aligned?
     
  4. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    There is a comparison, you just don't want to admit it.
     
  5. infantrycak

    infantrycak Admin & Mod Staff Member

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    Kubiak built an offense that played 12 minute drives. He knew how to do that. OB doesn't.
     
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  6. Speedy

    Speedy Yeller Dweller

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    Kubiak was top 10 in scoring 4 years in a row. Still waiting on OB to get there.
     
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  7. TheKDog

    TheKDog Hall of Fame

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    Hmm, this may have to do with averaging in bad teams that score very little. There are many articles on increased offense in the nfl even beyond just recovering last year's dip.
    Here's one:

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25459151/nfl-2018-offensive-scoring-explosion-numbers

    For the first time in the NFL's 99-year history, two teams scored 50 points in the same regulation game last month. The Los Angeles Rams' 54-51 victory over the Kansas City Chiefsunderscored a season-long explosion of offensive production, a trend that has energized fans and coincided with a notable rise in television ratings.

    Through the first 13 weeks of the 2018 campaign, the NFL is averaging more points (47.8), yards (718.4) and passing touchdowns (3.5) per game than at any similar point in its history. Expected points added (EPA) -- a measure of each play's change in net point advantage for the offense, based on down, distance and yard line at each snap -- has increased nearly 1,200 points from 2017, a massive jump.


    The numbers represent a course correction after a one-year dip last season, but the roots reveal boundless opportunity for future expansion. NFL offenses have enjoyed a steady rise for 40 years, ever since the league adjusted a series of rules in 1978 to end the "dead ball" era and encourage more scoring. But 2018 has produced a sharp spike even beyond that trend.
     
  8. TheKDog

    TheKDog Hall of Fame

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    Yep, relative to the league scoring of his time, kubiak had a much higher ranked offense. OBs highest offensive points per game finish is 15th yet he it's the most in team history because of the general rise in scoring around the league
     
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  9. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    Total points scored?
     
  10. TheKDog

    TheKDog Hall of Fame

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    The Texans also had the 4th highest scoring defense this past season.
     
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  11. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    Since scoring is up

    Remind me what the score of the SB was?
     
  12. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    Since scoring is up

    Remind me what the score of the SB was?
     
  13. Speedy

    Speedy Yeller Dweller

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    True, but 6 of the 10 highest scoring seasons in since 1950 have happened since 2012.

    Seriously? Out of 267 NFL games you're going to have a clunker every so often. If you're going to use 1 game to make a judgement, then you're just arguing for the sake of arguing, which that's no secret anyway.
     
  14. BigBull

    BigBull All Pro

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    And yet OB has been a better hc in his first five years than Kubiak. 43-38, 3 division titles, and 1-3 in the payoffs compared 37-43, no division titles, no playoff appearances in Kubiak’s first 5 seasons.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  15. sandman

    sandman Brexit Advisor

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    Right. I didn't say scoring wasn't up. Looking over the last 20 years, you see 10-20 years ago scoring was in the 20-21 point range. You see in the last six years or so that scoring is in the 22-23 range. A 3-point swing at best over a 20 year period isn't explosive, while there are still some individual teams that are.

    Nor has it been a linear increase. The highest season was 2013, then 2014-2016 were almost the exact same average between 22.6 and 22.8, followed by a 10-year low of 21.7, then finally 2018 which still trailed 2013. But the league had been averaging around 21-22 since around 2006 I think so there wasn't a step change difference in a given year or two. It's been evolving higher for decades.

    The only point I was trying to make was there was no smoking gun related to the league average being solely responsible for the Texans improving their scoring by 5+ points over the last few years.
     
  16. sandman

    sandman Brexit Advisor

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    I totally agree that while the league overall is evolving slowly by a point or so every several years, there are certain teams recently that have done an amazing job of maximizing offensive potential in this era of offensive friendly rules. Which probably does show that there are still a lot of teams that haven't adapted and/or really suck at offense.

    Also, any numbers I quoted were per team, not per game. I also found in the data that return TD's were almost non-existent these days while passing TD's have increased. Obviously a result of new rules around kickoffs.
     
  17. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    Go throughout the playoffs and other than the Pats/Chiefs scoring was down.
     
  18. sandman

    sandman Brexit Advisor

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    Outside of the Wildcard games, it wasn't as big of difference as you think.

    Conference Championships - average of 29 points per team

    Divisional Round - averaged 25 points per team

    Wildcard Round - averaged 18 points per team

    Chiefs, Rams, Chargers, Patriots all scored at least 28 points in a game this post-season.
     
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  19. steelbtexan

    steelbtexan Hall of Fame

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    The Pats/Chiefs game inflated the Championship games. It took overtime for the Saints/Rams game to hit that number.
     
  20. TheKDog

    TheKDog Hall of Fame

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    Bill Obrien offenses have averaged 12.5 points over 4 games in the playoffs...and that includes 2 TDs that started in the opponents redzone thanks to the defense and special teams forcing turnovers.

    Take those out and he's averaging 9 points per game.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019
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