Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by zshawn10, Feb 2, 2019.
Then tell me why Kubiak offenses didn't score more?
I agree, are you saying BOB/Kelly aren't going to be aligned?
There is a comparison, you just don't want to admit it.
Kubiak built an offense that played 12 minute drives. He knew how to do that. OB doesn't.
Kubiak was top 10 in scoring 4 years in a row. Still waiting on OB to get there.
Hmm, this may have to do with averaging in bad teams that score very little. There are many articles on increased offense in the nfl even beyond just recovering last year's dip.
For the first time in the NFL's 99-year history, two teams scored 50 points in the same regulation game last month. The Los Angeles Rams' 54-51 victory over the Kansas City Chiefsunderscored a season-long explosion of offensive production, a trend that has energized fans and coincided with a notable rise in television ratings.
Through the first 13 weeks of the 2018 campaign, the NFL is averaging more points (47.8), yards (718.4) and passing touchdowns (3.5) per game than at any similar point in its history. Expected points added (EPA) -- a measure of each play's change in net point advantage for the offense, based on down, distance and yard line at each snap -- has increased nearly 1,200 points from 2017, a massive jump.
The numbers represent a course correction after a one-year dip last season, but the roots reveal boundless opportunity for future expansion. NFL offenses have enjoyed a steady rise for 40 years, ever since the league adjusted a series of rules in 1978 to end the "dead ball" era and encourage more scoring. But 2018 has produced a sharp spike even beyond that trend.
Yep, relative to the league scoring of his time, kubiak had a much higher ranked offense. OBs highest offensive points per game finish is 15th yet he it's the most in team history because of the general rise in scoring around the league
Total points scored?
The Texans also had the 4th highest scoring defense this past season.
Since scoring is up
Remind me what the score of the SB was?
True, but 6 of the 10 highest scoring seasons in since 1950 have happened since 2012.
Seriously? Out of 267 NFL games you're going to have a clunker every so often. If you're going to use 1 game to make a judgement, then you're just arguing for the sake of arguing, which that's no secret anyway.
And yet OB has been a better hc in his first five years than Kubiak. 43-38, 3 division titles, and 1-3 in the payoffs compared 37-43, no division titles, no playoff appearances in Kubiak’s first 5 seasons.
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Right. I didn't say scoring wasn't up. Looking over the last 20 years, you see 10-20 years ago scoring was in the 20-21 point range. You see in the last six years or so that scoring is in the 22-23 range. A 3-point swing at best over a 20 year period isn't explosive, while there are still some individual teams that are.
Nor has it been a linear increase. The highest season was 2013, then 2014-2016 were almost the exact same average between 22.6 and 22.8, followed by a 10-year low of 21.7, then finally 2018 which still trailed 2013. But the league had been averaging around 21-22 since around 2006 I think so there wasn't a step change difference in a given year or two. It's been evolving higher for decades.
The only point I was trying to make was there was no smoking gun related to the league average being solely responsible for the Texans improving their scoring by 5+ points over the last few years.
I totally agree that while the league overall is evolving slowly by a point or so every several years, there are certain teams recently that have done an amazing job of maximizing offensive potential in this era of offensive friendly rules. Which probably does show that there are still a lot of teams that haven't adapted and/or really suck at offense.
Also, any numbers I quoted were per team, not per game. I also found in the data that return TD's were almost non-existent these days while passing TD's have increased. Obviously a result of new rules around kickoffs.
Go throughout the playoffs and other than the Pats/Chiefs scoring was down.
Outside of the Wildcard games, it wasn't as big of difference as you think.
Conference Championships - average of 29 points per team
Divisional Round - averaged 25 points per team
Wildcard Round - averaged 18 points per team
Chiefs, Rams, Chargers, Patriots all scored at least 28 points in a game this post-season.
The Pats/Chiefs game inflated the Championship games. It took overtime for the Saints/Rams game to hit that number.
Bill Obrien offenses have averaged 12.5 points over 4 games in the playoffs...and that includes 2 TDs that started in the opponents redzone thanks to the defense and special teams forcing turnovers.
Take those out and he's averaging 9 points per game.
Putting on my tin hat for a minute I also notice that announcers and various other talking heads are really pushing how scores are up and the game is faster pace and how explosive offenses are, etc. I find it interesting that this is the narrative after ratings dropped so much and everyone was calling it the no fun league.
High scoring games and explosive offenses are fun to watch and get more viewers in. So in 17 we have a low scoring game, a political issue with the whole kneeling thing and almost draconic refs when it came to celebrations. so next year we have no political issues, and you know the owners talked to their teams about that, celebrations back and a very high scoring season.
Of course I've been question how much influence the league has over the games ever since that issue with the Rams and Saints. The league pushes for another team in LA to get than Callie money and, boom, all of a sudden they are in the bowl because of a bad ref call that the league can't do anything about......even though the rules actually say they can.
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