Texans 7th Best Team in NFL, 3rd Best in AFC - Football Outsiders

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by Playoffs, Oct 24, 2012.

  1. Playoffs

    Playoffs Subscribed Contributor

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    Football Ousiders: Broncos are the best in the AFC
    Why .500 Broncos are AFC's best--ESPN Insider
    Football Outsiders--Week 7 DVOA Ratings -- Texans 7th Best Team in NFL
     
  2. Exascor

    Exascor Hall of Fame

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    This is based on their formulas that are pretty accurate but...the Texans are low for really only 1 reason. They are 31st in their special teams ranking. If they were just 16th they would be a top 2-3 team in their rankings. Special teams hasn't cost the Texans a game yet but sure could have.

    Imagine how good the Texans would be if they got anything positive from the return game or coverage units.
     
  3. noxiousdog

    noxiousdog All Pro

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    And it didn't get any better last week. The Ravens - averaged - 36 yards per kickoff return. They had more yardage returning kicks than total offense.

    Just horrible.
     
  4. Texn4life

    Texn4life Hall of Fame

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    Well I only have one stat for these stat geeks. We beat the team they're saying is better than us in their stadium. Sometimes these guys just outsmart themselves. It also took a miraculous comeback for them to win their last game. Don't get me wrong I think Denver will be an improved team as the season goes on, but they aren't there yet.
     
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2012
  5. TexanSam

    TexanSam Hall of Fame

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    It's going to cost us a game or two this season. There has to be an expendable player or two who we can release to sign a guy who only kicks on kickoffs. The Cowboys did it a few years ago. For most teams, it would be a waste of a roster spot. But we're that bad on kickoffs.
     
  6. Double Barrel

    Double Barrel Modified Simian

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    Fortunately, the NFL has a playoff system to determine champions, and not some convoluted BCS crap or rankings where opinions mean anything.

    I have no doubt that the Texans are better than the Broncos, including the win at Denver. So they can keep their editorial rankings and I'll stick with reality.
     
  7. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

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    Denver is the best team in the AFC. They have a 3-3 record, but their 3 losses have come to great teams including Houston, Atlanta, and New England. Houston and New England are rated below them.

    Yeah, makes perfect sense :crazy:

    I can agree with giving teams with tough schedules a boost, but you can't knock down the Texans for playing the 3-3 Broncos and bump up the Broncos for playing the 6-1 Texans and say "Broncos are better"

    Its circular in nature and ridiculous
     
  8. Double Barrel

    Double Barrel Modified Simian

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    How does this not reflect on the Broncos? Oh, "unlucky" factors into the equation. How freakin' moronic.
     
  9. gtexan02

    gtexan02 Working?

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    Its also poorly worded

    They've forced 10 fumbles, and recovered 4 of them. Statistics show that most teams recover ~50% of fumbles (random)

    They've fumbled 9 times, but lost 100% of them. Thats unusual and likely won't keep happening

    Still, 9 fumbles in 6 games is a lot
     
  10. paycheck71

    paycheck71 Hall of Fame

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    Recovering a fumble is not really a measurable skill. If the ball bounces your way, you fall on it, if it doesn't, you don't recover it. Chance is the main factor here.

    Like someone mentioned. The only reason for Texans being low is the special teams play. Take that out of the equation, and the Texans are 2 or 3.
     
  11. dream_team

    dream_team Hall of Fame

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    ST cost us the Packers game. I know the offense and defense stunk it up too, but we would have had an excellent chance at winning still if ST simply played average and didn't make huge mistakes.
     
  12. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    That's neat that we're the 7th best NFL team to someone.

    I think we're all in agreement that it's either 5 or 6 spots too low, though.
     
  13. kiwitexansfan

    kiwitexansfan Site Contributor

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    I think it just reinforces how bad things are on special teams.

    If we play great offense and defense hopefully we don't need to be special on special teams.
     
  14. HOU-TEX

    HOU-TEX Ah, Football!

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    If Tate hadn't fumbled in the 4th quarter against the Broncos it would've been a beat down. We were driving that series and had killed over 4 min of the clock when Tate fumbled.

    Eh, espn's good for games, scores and highlights. I never watch or read anything of theirs that is opinion based
     
  15. Exascor

    Exascor Hall of Fame

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    I wouldn't say they cost us that game. They contributed to the loss. That really was a 3 phase beatdown. You can't say that if special teams had performed average that the game would have definately been a win. But...maybe I'm blocking something out. That game is covered by a fog in my brain. =P
     
  16. Double Barrel

    Double Barrel Modified Simian

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    Did we watch the same game? :um:

    All four phases were dominated by the Packers. Offense, defense, special teams, coaching. The only 'highlight' was JJ Watt and the game clock finally reaching 0:00.
     
  17. BullNation4Life

    BullNation4Life Hall of Fame

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  18. El Tejano

    El Tejano Hall of Fame

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    I will go with Bill Parcells on this one. "We are who are record says we are!"

    We are a team that has played pretty damn good for 6 games and had one bad game.
     
  19. noxiousdog

    noxiousdog All Pro

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    Even though FO has us as the 7th best team, it also thinks we have better odds than anyone of not just getting there, but winning the Super Bowl. That's a bit of a statistical oddity too. Any NFC team would be favored, but there's more NFC teams in the mix than AFC.
     
  20. Section516

    Section516 Warrior

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    Hmm. Wonder what the spread would be if Broncos played here for SB birth..We'd have to be favored (No new injuries to either team)
     

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