I decided to look at the Super Bowl winners for the past few decades. Since 1993, when the Cowboys won the Super Bowl, 14 of the last 17 Super Bowl winners have had Hall of Fame locks as their quarterback. Aikman, Aikman, Young, Aikman, Favre, Elway, Elway, Warner, Brady, Brady, Brady, Roethlisberger, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees. The only three that slipped in there that are not HOF qb's were Trent dilfer, Brad Johnson and Eli Manning. The top ten scoring defenses since 2000 are as follows: 2000 Ravens 10.3 2000 Titans 11.9 2002 Bucs 12.2 2005 Bears 12.6 2006 Ravens 12.6 So, two of the three best scoring defenses in the past decade were the reason that Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer were able to slip in. I guess the Giants can just be chalked up as being in the right place at the right time. My conclusion is that you need to either have a HOF qb or a defense that is one of the top 3 or 4 of the last decade in order to stand a good chance at a Super Bowl victory. You can actually go back farther than 17 years and find the same thing. The 1991 Redskins gave up 14/game. The 1990 Giants gave up 13.2/game. The 88 and 89 Niners both had Joe Montana. You would have to go back to the 1987 Redskins led by Doug Williams to find another incidence where you have neither a HOF qb or a defense for the ages.