Strength of Schedule (For Offense)

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by jtexas, Jul 28, 2012.

  1. jtexas

    jtexas Veteran

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    From an offensive standpoint, the Texans have a considerably weak schedule. These things change a lot from year-to-year, but going off 2011 historical numbers, the offense should perform well.

    Pass Defense

    The offense will only have four games against a top 10 (2011) passing defenses. Five defenses we play averaged in the bottom 10 (2011). The average pass ranking of the teams we play is 17.25 out of 32 - not great by any means.

    MIA - 249 ypg (25th)
    JAC - 208 ypg (8)
    DEN - 331 ypg (18)
    TEN - 226 ypg (14)
    NYJ - 201 ypg (5)
    GB - 300 ypg (32)
    BAL - 196.2 (4)
    BUF - 232 (19)
    CHI - 254 (28)
    JAC - 208 ypg (8)
    DET - 226 ypg (14)
    TEN - 226 ypg (14)
    NE - 293.9 (31)
    IND - 227 (15)
    MIN - 251 (26)
    IND - 227 (15)

    Additional Notes:
    The Titans should take a step back as they lost Finnegan and now have Alterraun Verner starting, who was primarily the nickel corner last season. Verner played well, but he is better suited to stay at the nickel.

    Run Defense

    There are five games with teams in the top 10 in run defense and five games with teams in the bottom 10 in run defense. The average ranking run defense is 16.37, again the bottom half.

    MIA - 96 ypg (3rd)
    JAC - 104 ypg (9)[/B]
    DEN - 126 ypg (22)
    TEN - 128 ypg (24)
    NYJ - 111 ypg (13)
    GB - 112 ypg (14)
    BAL - 92.6 ypg (2)
    BUF - 139 ypg (28)
    CHI - 96.4 (5)
    JAC - 104 ypg (9)
    DET - 128 ypg (23)
    TEN - 128 ypg (24)
    NE - 117 (17)
    IND - 144 (29)
    MIN - 107 (11)
    IND - 144 (29)

    Additional Notes:
    Although i intended to concentrate on the defense, Miami isn't even a real team at this point. You can say the same about the Jags with MJJ sitting out and Gabbert starting. If the Texans pull out a win in the first two games, the average run defense jumps to 18 and gets a lot softer.
     
    NastyNate, Playoffs and drs23 like this.
  2. Playoffs

    Playoffs Subscribed Contributor

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    Nice work. Rep.
     
  3. NastyNate

    NastyNate I go kerplunk

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    Thank you for this, interesting. I'd like to see how this correlates with the low ranked passing offenses' TOP.
     
  4. Cjeremy635

    Cjeremy635 Overtraining

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    Thanks for the info. I know team's improve or regress every year, but as it stands, it looks promising.
     
  5. ThaShark316

    ThaShark316 #28

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    This is why my optimism is high.

    You're about to just come out and STOP the Texans? [​IMG]

    When the schedule was released, and everyone said "tough schedule", I kept wondering: So who can shut the Texans down?

    I only see CHI and BAL here.
     
  6. BCRich

    BCRich Veteran

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    How does those numbers compare to last season? I don't think it's any easier if you look at the strength of defense. I think we played about five games last season against top 5 run defenses & 5 games against top 5 passing defenses.
     
  7. infantrycak

    infantrycak Mod. Staff Member

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    Look at what you are saying. 32 teams in the league, 16 games. With minor variation you should expect to play 2.5 top 5 anythings in a year if it was totally random. Playing 5 would be a difficult schedule.
     
  8. BCRich

    BCRich Veteran

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    I'm sorry, but I don't think I understand what you are saying. The tone suggests you disagree with my last statement, but your post doesn't contradict anything I said.

    Looking at the defenses we will play in 2012, our schedule does not look any easier than our 2011 schedule.
     


  9. BullBlitz

    BullBlitz Section 331

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    Your data is awesome. I have not seen anyone break down the schedule like this. Thanks man!

    But your conclusion is incorrect. The difficulty is about average, and about what one would expect from a random sample of the league's teams. Here is a simple explanation:

    There are 31 teams that you could possibly play, but for simplification of the math, let's assume there were 30. Also, let's assume that you played all 30 teams in one full NFL regular season.

    The result of the above is that you would play ten top-10 teams, ten bottom-10 teams, and ten middle-ranked teams. That's all 30 teams.

    Now, cut the above example in half and only play 15 games. If the difficulty were randomly distributed, you would end up playing five top-ten teams, 5 bottom-ten teams, and 5 middle ranked teams. Also their average rank would be about 15.

    Apply the above to a 16 game schedule and that is what you came up with - an average schedule.
     
  10. BullBlitz

    BullBlitz Section 331

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    Yes, I agree. That is the math.
     
  11. jtexas

    jtexas Veteran

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    Before my intention gets misinterpreted, it was to point out that from an offensive standpoint, our schedule doesn't look difficult.

    I realize that ranking is not the best statistical measure of performance when determining the deviation from a mean, so i broke it out differently.

    2012 Avg. Pass Def.
    241.00 ypg (an 8.04% decrease in difficultly compared to last season & 4.92% below league average)

    2012 Avg. Run Def.
    115.44 ypg (a 3.95% increase in difficulty compared to last season & 1.45% above league average). After the first two games this "difficulty increase" is gone and the average is normal.
     

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