Strength of Schedule Analysis - Week 17

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by Sarg01, Dec 26, 2006.

  1. Sarg01

    Sarg01 Hall of Fame

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    I've worked out the Strength of Schedule ranges for every team that has a possibility of finishing with 5 or 6 wins. Each SOS number is given in terms of number of opponent victories. Divide by 256 (games in a season) to get percentage if you prefer decimals to nice round whole numbers :)

    6 win scenarios:

    Minnesota - 117 to 128
    San Fran - 123 to 132
    Washington - 127 to 134
    Houston - 127 to 134
    Miami - 134 to 142

    NOTE: Though HOU's max and MIA's min are officially the same number, Houston would have to win to get to 6 victories. As Miami played Houston, this would push their minimum number up to 135. Thus it is mathematically impossible for Houston to finish behind MIA in draft order. A pick of #9 or higher is guaranteed, regardless of Week 17 results.

    5 win scenarios:

    Arizona - 122 to 129
    Washington - 128 to 134
    Houston - 128 to 134
    Cleveland - 132 to 140
    Tampa Bay - 135 to 141

    NOTE: It is mathematically impossible for a 5-win Texans team to finish behind Tampa in draft order. This would guarantee a pick of #6 or higher for a 5-win Texans.
    OTHER NOTE: It is unlikely that the Texans would go 8-for-10 in strength of schedule matchups with respect to Arizona, which pushes the 3rd pick and Joe Thomas out of reach.

    Root for:
    KC over Jax (2 game swing over most, 3 game swing vs. San Fran + Clev - besides, it locks Jags out of playoffs)
    NE over Ten (1 game swing)
    Mia over Ind (1 game swing)
    Seattle over Tampa (2 game swing vs. San Fran)
    Washington over Giants (improves Washington's record - no SOS impact)

    Only applicable if we finish with 5 wins:
    Baltimore over Buffalo (3 game swing vs. Cleveland guarantees #5 pick or better)

    Special bonus games:
    Minnesota over St. Louis (guarantees #8 or higher pick)
    San Fran over Denver (guarantees #8 or higher pick - #7 if Minny won earlier)
     
  2. Bubbajwp

    Bubbajwp All Flopper

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    Thanks
     
  3. threetoedpete

    threetoedpete Hall of Fame

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    Lot of hard work there big guy nice effort.
     
  4. YoungTexanFan

    YoungTexanFan Hall of Fame

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    Soo...basicly, we should root against every other AFC South team next week? What a concept.

    Seriously, nice work. Rep your way.
     
  5. Texan in Japan

    Texan in Japan All Pro

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    Appreciate the analysis! Looks like a 6-9 pick and although I'd love AP, picking in that range will still get us a very good player.
     
  6. threetoedpete

    threetoedpete Hall of Fame

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  7. Kaiser Toro

    Kaiser Toro Native Mod

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    Great stuff, appreciate the work.
     
  8. CharloTex

    CharloTex All Pro

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    Sarg, this stuff is tough, not all of my figures exactly concure with yours but the end result is approximately the same. The one thing I take exception with is that Tampa Bay is currently a 4-win team, so they have to first WIN one more to get even with Houston, a 5-win team. Therefore, root first for TB to win, and then SOS takes care of itself, as you said.

    To add to what you were saying about the other games, our closest draft competition comes from Washington in both the Houston-win and -loss scenarios, and from Cleveland in the Houston-loss scenario. The most important other games are that Washington and TB win (no competition so long as they win). ARZ is not likely to win against SD in SD, but that would be a welcome gift. Next, if either MIN at home beats STL, or SF beats DEN on the road, they "get out of our way" in a Houston-win scenerio (realistically, we can't beat them in SOS regardless, and Miami as you stated is no draft competition). Otherwise, the most important game of influence is KC must win over JAX, which as you stated will be doubly pleasureful. And as you stated, extremely helpful in a HOUSTON-loss scenario if BLT at home beats BUF - this in tandem w/ a KC win would basically cinch it for Houston over CLE. And if it's only WAS that we're battliing for position, a DAL win over DET hurts WAS by 1 more than us.
     


  9. Sarg01

    Sarg01 Hall of Fame

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    You're absolutely right. One of the pitfalls of this win 5/win 6 analysis is a situation like the Seattle game. If we win 6, then we REALLY want Seattle to win to help us pass up 6-win San Fran. But if we win 5, we want Tampa to win so that they become a 5-win team who can not get ahead of us SOS-wise.

    My leaning is that we beat the Browns so I had Seattle marked as the prefered winner.
     
  10. CharloTex

    CharloTex All Pro

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    Yes, I agree, this year I would prefer to win our final game, especially against the Browns. Then I'll root during the late games for SOS.:marionaner:
     

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